What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, up from 10% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources
1. **Title:** Nippon Steel pushes deadline to close US deal
**URL:** [kuwaittimes.com](https://kuwaittimes.com)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has pushed back the closing date for its $14.9 billion purchase of US Steel to the first quarter of 2025, citing ongoing opposition from the United Steelworkers union and US politicians. US President Joe Biden has 15 days to decide whether to approve or block the deal, which has faced intense opposition since its announcement. Despite the opposition, US Steel shareholders overwhelmingly voted to approve the acquisition in April.
2. **Title:** Nippon Steel Extends Deadline for U.S. Steel Acquisition Amid Opposition
**URL:** [istoedinheiro.com.br](https://istoedinheiro.com.br)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has extended the deadline for closing its $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel until the first quarter of 2025, while U.S. President Joe Biden evaluates whether to block the deal, which has faced intense opposition since its announcement. The acquisition was initially set to close in the third or fourth quarter of 2024. Biden has expressed concerns that U.S. Steel should be owned and operated nationally.
3. **Title:** Nippon Steel extends closing date for stuck US Steel acquisition
**URL:** [thefrontierpost.com](https://thefrontierpost.com)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has extended the closing date for its planned acquisition of U.S. Steel to the first quarter of 2025, worth nearly $15 billion. The company expressed confidence that the acquisition will protect and grow the American company despite opposition from U.S. President Joe Biden and his successor, Donald Trump.
4. **Title:** Nippon Steel pushes deadline to close U.S. Steel deal as Biden decision looms
**URL:** [biztoc.com](https://biztoc.com)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has pushed back the closing date for its $14.9 billion purchase of U.S. Steel to the first quarter of 2025, citing the need for a fair and fact-based evaluation by U.S. President Joe Biden. The deal has faced intense opposition from the United Steelworkers union and politicians, with Biden expressing concerns that U.S. Steel should be domestically owned and operated.
5. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s US Steel Acquisition Plan Receives Support from Local Communities
**URL:** [3yonnews.com](https://3yonnews.com)
**Summary:** Tadashi Imai, the president of Japanese steel company Nippon Steel, said that the company sees support for its proposal to buy US Steel in areas of the United States where steel mills are located. The US Committee on Foreign Investment has referred the $15 billion deal to President Joe Biden, who has 15 days to make a decision.
6. **Title:** Biden to kill Nippon Steel’s $15B takeover of US Steel on national security grounds: report
**URL:** [nypost.com](https://nypost.com)
**Summary:** President Biden plans to block Nippon Steel’s proposed $15 billion takeover of US Steel on national security grounds, according to a Bloomberg report. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) panel reviewing the deal must refer its decision to Biden by Dec. 22 or 23. If Biden decides to block the merger, the two companies are poised to pursue litigation.
7. **Title:** US Steel Acquisition Examined by CFIUS
**URL:** [zonebourse.com](https://zonebourse.com)
**Summary:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) will examine the proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel on December 22. The committee must decide whether to approve, block, or extend the review period for the operation. The White House has stated that it will wait for the results of the examination before making a decision on blocking the operation.
These articles provide updates on the ongoing situation regarding the merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 27, 2024 02:13 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel has experienced delays, with the closing date extended to the first quarter of 2025 amidst opposition from the United Steelworkers union, US politicians, and concerns from President Joe Biden about national ownership. While US Steel shareholders have approved the deal, Biden has 15 days to decide on the acquisition after a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Some reports suggest Biden may block the merger on national security grounds, though local support exists in US areas with steel mills. Both companies are prepared for potential litigation if the deal is blocked.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with their analysis:
1. **Fact:** Nippon Steel has proposed a $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel.
– **Correctness:** True. This is a specific detail mentioned in the summary.
– **Relevance:** True. The financial size of the acquisition is relevant to understanding the scale and importance of the deal.
2. **Fact:** The closing date for the acquisition has been extended to the first quarter of 2025.
– **Correctness:** True, based on the information provided. Extending deadlines in mergers and acquisitions is a common occurrence due to the complexity of such deals.
– **Relevance:** True. The extension to the first quarter of 2025 is directly relevant to the question about the announcement likelihood before January 21, 2025.
3. **Fact:** The United Steelworkers union is opposing the acquisition.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming no contradictory information. Labor unions often take positions on large corporate transactions affecting their sectors.
– **Relevance:** True. Opposition can influence the merger’s approval and announcement timeline.
4. **Fact:** US politicians are opposing the acquisition.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming no contradictory information. Political opposition is common in international mergers, especially those involving critical industries.
– **Relevance:** True. Political opposition can significantly influence the deal’s progress and outcome.
5. **Fact:** President Joe Biden is concerned about national ownership issues related to the acquisition.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming no contradictory information. Concerns about national ownership in critical sectors are often discussed in such contexts.
– **Relevance:** True. Presidential concerns can directly affect approval processes.
6. **Fact:** US Steel shareholders have approved the deal.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming no contradictory information. Shareholder approval is a typical step in the acquisition process.
– **Relevance:** True. Shareholder approval is a key milestone towards the deal’s completion and announcement.
7. **Fact:** President Biden has 15 days to decide on the acquisition after a review by the CFIUS.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming no contradictory information. CFIUS review is standard for foreign acquisitions impacting national security.
– **Relevance:** True. The timeline for presidential decision-making affects the likelihood of announcement before a specific date.
8. **Fact:** Some reports suggest Biden may block the merger on national security grounds.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming no contradictory information. National security is a critical consideration in foreign acquisitions.
– **Relevance:** True. Potential blocking can prevent the deal from being announced before the date in question.
9. **Fact:** Local support exists in US areas with steel mills for the merger.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming no contradictory information. Local support often exists in areas directly impacted economically by corporate actions.
– **Relevance:** True. Support or opposition from affected areas can influence political and regulatory outcomes.
10. **Fact:** Both companies are prepared for potential litigation if the deal is blocked.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming no contradictory information. Preparing for litigation is a common strategy in mergers facing legal or regulatory hurdles.
– **Relevance:** True. Willingness to litigate can impact the likelihood and timing of an official announcement.
Each fact has been analyzed for correctness and relevance, and none of the facts conflict externally or internally within the summary provided.
Fact-checked summary:
Nippon Steel has proposed a $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel, highlighting the deal’s significant scale and importance. The closing date for the acquisition has been extended to the first quarter of 2025, which is directly relevant to the likelihood of an official announcement before January 21, 2025. The acquisition faces opposition from the United Steelworkers union and US politicians, both of which can influence the approval and announcement timeline. President Joe Biden has expressed concerns about national ownership issues, a factor that can directly impact the deal’s approval process. US Steel shareholders have approved the transaction, marking a key milestone towards its completion. President Biden is allocated a 15-day period to decide on the acquisition following a CFIUS review, which affects timing considerations. Reports indicate Biden might block the merger on national security grounds, which could prevent the deal from being officially announced before the set date. Local support for the merger exists in US areas with steel mills, which can influence political and regulatory outcomes. Both companies are prepared to litigate if the merger is blocked, a factor that may impact the timing of any official announcement.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.2
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is influenced by the historical success rate of large cross-border acquisitions facing significant regulatory and political hurdles, estimated at around 20% when such opposition is present. While shareholder approval is a strong positive indicator, substantial challenges remain including expressed political opposition and unresolved national security concerns, greatly reducing the likelihood of an imminent announcement.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Factors that could diverge from the base rate include any unexpected easing of concerns by President Biden, expedited regulatory reviews overriding opposition, or sudden strategic shifts that alleviate national security concerns. Additionally, increased support from key political figures or stakeholders could accelerate the process, contrary to present indicators. Conversely, aggressive litigation, if initiated early, might further delay timing beyond January 21, 2025.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS review must approve the acquisition without national security concerns, which is assessed as unlikely due to existing reports indicating potential blocking by President Biden. – President Biden must not block the merger during his 15-day review period following the CFIUS decision, which is assessed as unlikely given his expressed concerns on national ownership issues. – Regulatory approval must be secured from other relevant authorities without significant delays imposed by opposition from US Steelworkers union and political figures, which is assessed as possible given mixed support. – An official announcement of the deal’s approval must be made before January 21, 2025, which is assessed as unlikely given potential litigation or delays tied to the regulatory and political landscape.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AI systems is that the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger faces a low probability of being officially announced before January 21, 2025, primarily due to significant regulatory and political challenges. President Biden’s expressed concerns on national security, coupled with the necessity of clearing the CFIUS review amidst strong opposition from the United Steelworkers union and various US politicians, are major hurdles. While shareholder approval has been secured, historical data indicates only a 20% success rate for such large cross-border mergers with similar obstacles. Furthermore, the timeline is constrained by regulatory hurdles, potential litigation, and a tight window leading up to early 2025. The prediction could change if unexpected factors, such as expedited reviews, shifts in political or regulatory stance, or successful litigation strategies, expedite the process and ease concerns surrounding the merger..
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 70%, down from 83% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Some big worker strikes took place in the United States in 2024
**URL:** [foxbusiness.com](https://foxbusiness.com)
**Summary:** In 2024, several significant worker strikes occurred in the United States, including a notable strike by dockworkers. The 47,000 dockworkers’ strike could have caused up to $5 billion in daily economic losses. The strike was part of a larger wave of labor actions across various industries, highlighting ongoing disputes over wages and working conditions.
2. **Title:** South African fruit industry monitors potential USA dockworker strike amid contract disputes
**URL:** [freshplaza.com](https://freshplaza.com)
**Summary:** South African fruit industry representatives are closely monitoring a potential dockworker strike in the U.S. due to unresolved contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The main issues include port modernization and a new long-term wage agreement, with President-elect Donald Trump reportedly expressing support for the dockworkers’ union.
3. **Title:** Trump boost to dockworkers unions changes talks ahead of January strike deadline
**URL:** [washingtonexaminer.com](https://washingtonexaminer.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Donald Trump has endorsed the International Longshoremen’s Association’s demand to halt automation at U.S. ports, potentially reducing the likelihood of a damaging strike when the current contract expires in mid-January. Trump’s support could influence negotiations with the U.S. Maritime Alliance, which may face pressure to meet the union’s demands.
4. **Title:** Dockworkers and Teachers Join Strike Against Pension Reform
**URL:** [latribune.fr](https://latribune.fr)
**Summary:** The CGT ports and docks union called for a two-day strike to protest against the government’s pension reform. The union is fighting for better working conditions and more generous retirement benefits for dockworkers, including the ability to retire four years earlier than the current age of 60. The strike is part of a broader social movement against government policies affecting labor rights.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 27, 2024 02:14 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Several reports are focusing on potential and ongoing dockworker strikes in the United States due to unresolved contract negotiations involving issues like port modernization and wage agreements. In 2024, a significant strike by 47,000 dockworkers reportedly highlighted widespread labor disputes across the nation, potentially causing substantial economic repercussions. Additionally, President-elect Donald Trump is said to have shown support for the dockworkers’ union by opposing port automation, which might influence ongoing negotiations with the U.S. Maritime Alliance and potentially reduce strike risks. Although interest from international parties, such as South Africa’s fruit industry, has been piqued by these developments, reports vary in reliability, and some accounts might involve speculation and unverified information.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here’s a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their evaluation for accuracy and relevance:
1. Fact: “Several reports are focusing on potential and ongoing dockworker strikes in the United States due to unresolved contract negotiations involving issues like port modernization and wage agreements.”
– Correct? True. Reports about dockworker strikes related to contract disputes over modernization and wages are common.
– Relevant? True. This is directly relevant to understanding the factors influencing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
2. Fact: “In 2024, a significant strike by 47,000 dockworkers reportedly highlighted widespread labor disputes across the nation, potentially causing substantial economic repercussions.”
– Correct? True (assuming the context is accurate up to the point in the timeline mentioned, which does not extend to 2024). The scale of such a strike and its repercussions are plausible.
– Relevant? True. The occurrence of a significant strike in 2024 is relevant to anticipating strike probability in 2025.
3. Fact: “President-elect Donald Trump is said to have shown support for the dockworkers’ union by opposing port automation, which might influence ongoing negotiations.”
– Correct? False. As of October 2023, Joe Biden is the President of the United States. Donald Trump is not President-elect as of the given timeline.
– Relevant? True. Presidential support for dockworkers could influence negotiations and strike risk.
4. Fact: “These developments have piqued interest from international parties, such as South Africa’s fruit industry.”
– Correct? True. Though specific interest from South Africa’s fruit industry is specific, it is plausible that international parties would be interested in U.S. dockworker strikes due to implications for global supply chains.
– Relevant? False. While international interest might arise because of potential disruptions, it is not directly relevant to the strike probability in Q1 2025.
5. Fact: “Reports vary in reliability, and some accounts might involve speculation and unverified information.”
– Correct? True. It is reasonable to assume that reports on such issues may vary in reliability and involve speculation.
– Relevant? True. The variable reliability of reports can impact the assessment of strike probability.
Each fact has been evaluated for accuracy against general knowledge as of the update and relevance to the given question about the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
Several reports accurately highlight ongoing dockworker strikes in the United States, primarily due to unresolved contract negotiations related to port modernization and wage agreements. This is directly relevant to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025. Additionally, in 2024, a significant strike involving 47,000 dockworkers underscored widespread labor disputes, which could affect expectations for more unrest in 2025. Although reports on these matters may vary in reliability and include speculation, they still influence the assessment of the likelihood of a strike in early 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.65
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is influenced by the recent strike involving 47,000 dockworkers in 2024, which demonstrates a precedent for labor unrest that could repeat. The ongoing disputes over contract terms, highlighted in recent news, increase the probability of continued dissatisfaction leading to strikes. Historically, dockworker strikes have occurred under similar circumstances, suggesting a relatively high base rate for potential strikes when significant labor disputes are unresolved.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
The resolution could differ from the base rate if employers and unions reach a satisfactory agreement on contract negotiations before the end of Q1 2025. Additionally, any significant economic or political changes could also influence negotiations, such as governmental intervention or economic shifts that might incentivize quicker resolutions. Public and political pressure could further hasten settlement, reducing the likelihood of a strike.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Ongoing contract negotiations need to remain unresolved through the end of Q1 2025. (Moderately likely) – Dockworkers’ demands regarding port modernization and wage agreements must remain unmet or unsatisfactorily addressed by employers. (Moderately likely) – Labor unions must decide to continue or escalate strike actions based on unmet demands and negotiations. (Moderately likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.7 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.7 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.7
Base rate: 0.65 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.77
Reverse Mellers: 0.63
Theory of Mind: 0.55 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.01
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.7
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The likelihood of a dockworker strike in Q1 2025 is moderate, given the historical precedent of labor unrest, including a significant strike by 47,000 dockworkers in 2024. Key unresolved issues such as port modernization and wage agreements could escalate negotiations set for January 15, 2025, potentially leading to strike action if not resolved. However, recent salary agreements, economic pressures, government intervention, or alternative union tactics might prevent a strike. The situation remains dynamic, with the outcome potentially influenced by political or economic shifts and the effectiveness of communication channels between negotiating parties..
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 25%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 30%
* more than 240: 5%
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Canada Headed for Spring Elections, Regardless of Trudeau’s Future
**URL:** [acadienouvelle.com](https://acadienouvelle.com)
**Summary:** Canada is heading towards federal elections in the spring, regardless of whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stays in power or not. The New Democratic Party (NDP) has promised to bring down the Liberal government early next year. Political observers predict that the government could fall by the end of March, leading to a general election in April or May. The Conservatives, who are leading in the polls, have been calling for elections all fall, while the Bloc Québécois has also called for elections at the start of the new year.
2. **Title:** Trudeau could stay or go. Either way, Canadians should brace for a spring election
**URL:** [westcentralonline.com](https://westcentralonline.com)
**Summary:** Canada is likely heading towards a spring election, with the NDP vowing to vote down the government in early 2025. Political watchers believe the government will fall by late March, with an election day in April or May. The Conservatives are demanding an election, and the Bloc has also called for an early election. The window for a campaign is a minimum of 36 days and a maximum of 50 days, according to Elections Canada.
3. **Title:** Most readers say they will vote for this party in Canada’s next election
**URL:** [insauga.com](https://insauga.com)
**Summary:** A recent poll by INsauga.com found that 70.34% of readers plan to vote for the Conservative Party in Canada’s next election, followed by the Liberals at 14.37% and the NDP at 7.19%. In a separate poll, 85.7% of readers believe the Justin Trudeau Liberals will not win the next election, indicating strong support for the Conservatives ahead of the anticipated elections.
4. **Title:** Canada Heads Towards Spring Federal Elections
**URL:** [radio-canada.ca](https://radio-canada.ca)
**Summary:** Canada is heading towards federal elections in the spring, regardless of whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stays in power or not. The New Democratic Party (NDP) has promised to bring down the Liberal government early next year. Political observers are discussing various scenarios that could unfold, with a spring federal election being the most likely outcome. The Conservatives are currently leading in the polls, increasing the pressure for an election.
5. **Title:** Conservatives win B.C. federal byelection, CBC News projects
**URL:** [arabnews24.ca](https://arabnews24.ca)
**Summary:** Conservatives have won the election in British Columbia, according to the latest results. While the article does not provide further details on the election outcome, it confirms the Conservatives’ success, reflecting their strong position as the country heads toward upcoming federal elections.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 27, 2024 02:15 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent news articles suggest that Canada is likely heading towards federal elections in the spring, with significant political tensions among major parties. The New Democratic Party (NDP) is reportedly committed to voting down the Liberal government early next year, and political analysts anticipate a government collapse by late March, leading to elections in April or May. The Conservative Party, which is leading in some polls and recently won a federal byelection in British Columbia, is strongly advocating for an election. Public sentiment captured in recent polls shows a substantial portion of readers expressing support for the Conservatives, while skepticism remains about the Liberal Party’s chances of winning. These reports, which stem from various sources, suggest a highly charged political landscape, though they should be approached with caution due to potential biases or unverified claims.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, checked for correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact**: Canada is likely heading towards federal elections in the spring.
– **Correctness**: True, based on current news and political discussions regarding potential upcoming elections.
– **Relevance**: True, as determining the timing of the election is necessary for predicting the number of seats.
2. **Fact**: There are significant political tensions among major parties.
– **Correctness**: True, as political tensions are typical before elections, especially with reported voting down intentions.
– **Relevance**: True, political tension can influence election outcomes and voter sentiment.
3. **Fact**: The New Democratic Party (NDP) is reportedly committed to voting down the Liberal government early next year.
– **Correctness**: True, according to recent political reporting and party statements.
– **Relevance**: True, because if the government is voted down, it would directly lead to elections.
4. **Fact**: Political analysts anticipate a government collapse by late March, leading to elections in April or May.
– **Correctness**: True, given current political analyses and reports, though this is a prediction.
– **Relevance**: True, as the timing of the election affects campaigning strategies and possibly the outcome.
5. **Fact**: The Conservative Party recently won a federal byelection in British Columbia.
– **Correctness**: Likely false, as this detail should be cross-referenced with recent byelection results. Without current external data confirming this, the truthfulness cannot be firmly established.
– **Relevance**: True, winning byelections can indicate growing support for a party which may translate to general election outcomes.
6. **Fact**: The Conservative Party is leading in some polls.
– **Correctness**: True, based on recent political polling data showing the Conservatives in a favorable position.
– **Relevance**: True, as leading in polls may suggest potential success in an upcoming election.
7. **Fact**: Public sentiment captured in recent polls shows a substantial portion of readers expressing support for the Conservatives.
– **Correctness**: True, aligning with current polling trends indicating significant Conservative support.
– **Relevance**: True, public sentiment plays a critical role in election outcomes.
8. **Fact**: Skepticism remains about the Liberal Party’s chances of winning.
– **Correctness**: True, in line with current public opinion and media reports.
– **Relevance**: True, skepticism about opposition parties affects voter motivation and party strategy.
Each fact has been checked for correctness based on internal consistency and general knowledge up to date, with relevancy evaluated based on its influence on the original question’s outcome.
Fact-checked summary:
The upcoming Canadian federal election may occur in the spring, largely due to political tensions among major parties and the New Democratic Party’s plan to vote down the Liberal government, which could lead to elections early next year. Current political analyses anticipate a government collapse by late March, with elections potentially in April or May. Recent polling data shows the Conservative Party leading, reflecting significant public support, which is relevant when considering their potential success in the upcoming election. Additionally, there is prevailing skepticism about the Liberal Party’s chances of winning, influencing voter motivations and party strategies.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.5, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted):
* less than 172: 0.2
* between 172 and 205: 0.45
* between 206 and 240: 0.3
* more than 240: 0.05
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various analyses of the Canadian political landscape indicate that the Conservative Party is currently leading in the polls, suggesting a strong showing in any imminent election. This prediction considers current polling data, historical trends, and the current political climate, positing that the Conservatives could secure between 172 and 205 seats, marking a significant improvement over their 2021 results. However, the prediction remains cautious due to several potential factors that could influence outcomes, such as shifts in public opinion, the volatility of polling data, regional support variations, and unforeseen political events or scandals. These uncertainties underline the difficulty of forecasting exact seat counts and the potential impact of strategic missteps or emerging issues that might sway voters’ preferences.
Runtime: 196 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
