Updates from BestWorld’s AI Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman of Dec. 18, 2024

What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 20%, up from 10% yesterday. 

Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources

1. **Title:** U.S. Foreign Investment Panel Split On Nippon-U.S. Steel Deal
**URL:** [thefinancialdistrict.com.ph](https://thefinancialdistrict.com.ph)
**Summary:** The US Treasury has informed Nippon Steel that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has yet to reach an agreement on how to address security concerns regarding its proposed $14.9 billion purchase of US Steel. The CFIUS panel is struggling to reach a consensus ahead of the deadline for submitting a recommendation to President Joe Biden. The acquisition has faced significant opposition within the United States, with both Biden and his incoming successor, Donald Trump, signaling their intent to block the purchase.

2. **Title:** Trump’s Ex-Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo Backs Nippon Steel’s $14.9B Acquisition Of US Steel Citing National Security Concerns
**URL:** [emeatribune.com](https://emeatribune.com)
**Summary:** Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has expressed support for Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of United States Steel Corp., citing national security concerns. Pompeo argued that the deal would strengthen America’s position against Chinese market dominance and protect American jobs. However, President Joe Biden is expected to block the acquisition on national security grounds, and Pompeo’s former boss, President Donald Trump, has also expressed opposition to the deal.

3. **Title:** Nippon Steel Follies
**URL:** [americanactionforum.org](https://americanactionforum.org)
**Summary:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is struggling to reach a decision on Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel, with a deadline of December 23. If CFIUS remains split, the decision falls to President Biden, who has already announced his intention to block the deal. However, US Steel workers are in favor of the transaction. The decision is supposed to revolve around national security, but the US Trade Representative is strongly opposed, citing concerns that the deal would expose the CFIUS process to political manipulation.

4. **Title:** Nippon to revamp polluting blast furnace in Gary as part of U.S. Steel merger
**URL:** [indianapublicmedia.org](https://indianapublicmedia.org)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel Corporation plans to spend $300 million to revamp one of the blast furnaces at Gary Works as part of its merger with U.S. Steel. Local and national activists have expressed concerns about the environmental impact of the blast furnaces, which use coking coal and generate significant emissions. They would prefer to see the installation of furnaces that use ‘direct reduced iron’ and operate on hydrogen produced with renewable energy.

5. **Title:** US foreign investment panel split on Nippon-U.S. Steel deal, FT reports
**URL:** [ajot.com](https://ajot.com)
**Summary:** The U.S. Treasury has informed Nippon Steel that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) is struggling to reach a consensus on the proposed $14.9 billion purchase of U.S. Steel, citing security concerns. CFIUS has until December 22 to make a decision on whether to approve, block or extend the timeline for the deal’s review. The acquisition has faced opposition from both President Biden and his incoming successor Donald Trump, who have indicated their intentions to block the purchase.

*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 18, 2024 01:35 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*

Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel has encountered challenges and opposition within the US government, primarily due to national security concerns. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) remains divided on the issue and is approaching a deadline to reach a consensus. Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who is speculated as the incoming leader, have signaled intentions to block the deal. Despite former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s support, citing potential benefits in countering Chinese market influence and protecting U.S. jobs, various stakeholders, including U.S. Steel workers, hold differing views. The environmental impact of planned upgrades to blast furnaces by Nippon Steel as part of the merger has also drawn criticism from activists. The situation remains uncertain as the decision deadline approaches.”

Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with checks for their correctness and relevance:

1. Fact: The acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is valued at $14.9 billion.
– Correctness: Likely true, assuming the summary accurately reflects market reports. [True]
– Relevance: Relevant, as the valuation is critical for assessing the merger’s scale. [True]

2. Fact: The U.S. government has opposed the merger due to national security concerns.
– Correctness: Assuming governmental objections have been reported, this is plausible. [True]
– Relevance: Relevant, as government opposition could affect merger approval. [True]

3. Fact: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is divided on the issue.
– Correctness: Assuming CFIUS’s involvement is correctly referenced, this is plausible. [True]
– Relevance: Relevant, as CFIUS’s stance significantly influences the merger’s likelihood of approval. [True]

4. Fact: Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have signaled intentions to block the deal.
– Correctness: Internally inconsistent with Trump being “the incoming leader” and plausible, as both might have influence, though unusual for both to oppose publicly. [False]
– Relevance: Relevant, as the stance of major political figures impacts the merger’s chances. [True]

5. Fact: Mike Pompeo supports the merger, citing benefits against Chinese influence and protecting U.S. jobs.
– Correctness: Assuming unfamiliarity, plausible with respect to international competition. [True]
– Relevance: Relevant, as prominent support could sway opinion and affect the outcome. [True]

6. Fact: U.S. Steel workers have differing views on the merger.
– Correctness: Likely true due to diverse impacts on employment and conditions. [True]
– Relevance: Relevant, as labor opinions influence political and public narratives. [True]

7. Fact: The environmental impact of planned blast furnace upgrades has drawn criticism from activists.
– Correctness: Likely true given general concerns about industrial mergers. [True]
– Relevance: True, as environmental issues can affect public perception and regulatory scrutiny. [True]

8. Fact: The decision deadline is approaching.
– Correctness: Assuming CFIUS involvement, deadlines are typical. [True]
– Relevance: Relevant, since the timeline is critical for predicting the announcement date. [True]

Overall, most facts mentioned in the summary are both plausible and relevant to determining the probability of the merger’s announcement. However, the statement involving both Biden and Trump attempting to block the merger is internally inconsistent and less plausible.

Fact-checked summary:
The acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is valued at $14.9 billion, which is crucial for understanding the merger’s scale. The U.S. government has opposed the merger due to national security concerns, and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is reportedly divided on the issue, both of which are significant factors affecting the likelihood of merger approval. Mike Pompeo supports the merger, citing benefits against Chinese influence and protecting U.S. jobs, which could influence public and political opinion. U.S. Steel workers hold differing views on the merger, impacting political and public narratives. Environmental impact concerns, particularly regarding planned blast furnace upgrades, have drawn criticism from activists, highlighting potential regulatory challenges. Lastly, the decision deadline is approaching, a crucial factor for predicting the merger’s announcement date before January 21, 2025.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.25. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate of 0.25 reflects the complex and contentious nature of large-scale mergers involving foreign entities and U.S. companies, especially in strategic industries like steel. Historically, mergers of this nature have faced significant scrutiny, and the involvement of CFIUS due to national security concerns adds an additional layer of complexity. Environmental and political opposition further reduces the likelihood. Mike Pompeo’s support could lend some weight to the merger’s chances, but divisions within CFIUS and heightened political sensitivity may limit its impact.

Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Factors that could lead to a higher likelihood than the base rate include strong influence from political figures and lobbying that shifts the perspective of decision-makers in favor of the merger. Rapid resolution and compliance with environmental standards could also alter the outcome. Conversely, heightened national security concerns or increased opposition from environmental groups could decrease the likelihood further. If the deadline necessitates hastened decision-making, it may lead to outcomes that differ from typical scenarios.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS approval of the merger with a likelihood of low given the reported division on the issue and national security concerns.
– Addressing and overcoming national security concerns by the U.S. government with a likelihood of medium due to Mike Pompeo’s support and potential political pressure.
– Resolution of environmental impact concerns with a likelihood of moderate, as regulatory challenges remain significant.
– Positive public and political opinion shift towards the merger with a likelihood of medium-high due to possible influence from prominent figures like Mike Pompeo.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.08
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.71
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3

Model value: 0.2

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces numerous challenges with a low likelihood of approval before January 21, 2025. Central obstacles include national security concerns, divisions within the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), and environmental issues. Despite support from figures like Mike Pompeo, which could sway public and political sentiment, the $14.9 billion deal’s substantial size heightens scrutiny. Historical precedents for cross-border mergers in strategic industries pose a low success rate when complex regulatory concerns are present. A rapid resolution is constrained by the tight timeline, although factors such as geopolitical considerations and political pressure might expedite the process, offering a slim possibility for a different outcome.

Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 65%, up from 35% yesterday.

Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:

1. **Title:** Trump backs dockworkers as costly strike looms before inauguration
**URL:** [upstract.com](https://upstract.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Trump has expressed support for dockworkers’ demands for automation protections, as negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have broken down. The two sides have until January 15, 2025, to reach an agreement to avoid a costly strike that could disrupt the economy. Trump has called for “airtight language” that there will be no automation or semi-automation, highlighting the distress it could cause to American workers.

2. **Title:** Port negotiations pick up ahead of Jan. 15 deadline
**URL:** [njbiz.com](https://njbiz.com)
**Summary:** The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) are racing against the January 15, 2025, deadline to avoid another strike. The two sides have been trading barbs, with the USMX emphasizing the need for automation to improve efficiency, while the ILA has expressed concerns about the impact on jobs. If an agreement is not reached by the deadline, dockworkers may go on strike again.

3. **Title:** The Port Strike Ended — Now What?
**URL:** [taranganews.com](https://taranganews.com)
**Summary:** The recent port strike in the U.S. has ended, but businesses should prepare for the possibility of another strike. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) went on strike for the first time since 1977, shutting down 14 major ports. If an agreement is not reached by January 15, 2025, dockworkers could strike again, which could cost the U.S. economy significantly.

4. **Title:** Dockworkers to Strike in Montreal as Uncertainty Also Hangs Over Vancouver
**URL:** [maritime-executive.com](https://maritime-executive.com)
**Summary:** Canada’s ports are facing labor disputes, with dockworkers demanding recognition for their role in maintaining supply chains during the pandemic. The Port of Montreal Longshoremen’s Union has filed a strike notice, and approximately 1,200 members will stop work on October 27, 2024, impacting all container terminals. The situation remains tense as negotiations continue.

5. **Title:** Dockworkers’ Strike Threatened in Canada
**URL:** [seanews.ru](https://seanews.ru)
**Summary:** A potential dockworkers’ strike has been threatened in Canada, with port operators in British Columbia receiving warnings from a union representing around 700 workers. The strike, if it happens, is set to begin on Monday, as the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) local branch demands a new collective agreement

*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 18, 2024 01:36 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*

Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The newsfeed highlights ongoing labor disputes involving dockworkers in both the United States and Canada. In the U.S., negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) are at an impasse with a looming January 15, 2025, deadline, prompting President-elect Trump to back dockworkers’ demands against automation to prevent a costly strike. In Canada, dockworkers at the Port of Montreal have announced a strike set for October 27, 2024, while British Columbia’s port workers are also threatening a strike over contract disputes. These labor actions could significantly impact supply chains and have economic repercussions if resolutions are not achieved promptly.”

Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts mentioned in the summary, along with their verification and relevance to the outcome:

1. **Fact:** The newsfeed highlights ongoing labor disputes involving dockworkers in both the United States and Canada.
– Verification: True. The summary clearly states this is the topic being discussed.
– Relevance: True. Understanding the broader context of labor disputes can influence the likelihood of a strike.

2. **Fact:** In the U.S., negotiations are between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).
– Verification: True. These are the correct names of the organizations typically involved in such negotiations.
– Relevance: True. The parties involved are crucial to assessing the probability of a strike

3. **Fact:** Negotiations are at an impasse with a looming January 15, 2025, deadline.
– Verification: True. The summary and the agreement on salary increases indicate a deadline for further negotiations.
– Relevance: True. An impasse and specific deadline are important factors in determining the likelihood of a strike.

4. **Fact:** President-elect Trump is backing dockworkers’ demands against automation.
– Verification: False. As of the knowledge cut-off date, October 2023, there is no information on a President-elect Trump for the 2024 election.
– Relevance: True. Support from government officials can influence negotiations and the likelihood of a strike.

5. **Fact:** There is a potential strike in Canada at the Port of Montreal announced for October 27, 2024.
– Verification: True. The summary states this, and such actions by unions are plausible given the context.
– Relevance: False. The strike at the Port of Montreal is relevant to Canadian issues, not directly the U.S. situation or Q1 2025 strike probability.

6. **Fact:** British Columbia’s port workers are also threatening a strike over contract disputes.
– Verification: True. The summary includes this as a reported fact, suggesting ongoing labor issues in Canada.
– Relevance: False. While it shows a pattern of labor unrest, it does not directly affect U.S. dockworker negotiations or Q1 2025 strike probability.

7. **Fact:** These labor actions could significantly impact supply chains and have economic repercussions.
– Verification: True. Labor strikes in major ports historically have had significant impacts on supply chains and economies.
– Relevance: True. The potential economic impact of a strike can influence negotiations and resolutions, affecting the probability of a strike.

Overall, while some facts are potentially inaccurate or irrelevant to the U.S. strike scenario, the broader context of ongoing labor unrest in the port industry is relevant to assessing strike probabilities.

Fact-checked summary: The ongoing labor disputes involving dockworkers in both the United States and Canada provide important context for understanding the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025. In the U.S., the negotiations are specifically between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), and these discussions are currently at an impasse, with a looming deadline set for January 15, 2025. Such an impasse and specific deadline are critical factors when considering the probability of a strike. Additionally, these labor actions could have significant impacts on supply chains and economies, which might influence the course of negotiations and the resolution of disputes, thereby affecting the potential for a strike.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.65. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate considers the current deadlock in negotiations. Historically, labor negotiations involving the ILA and USMX can reach such impasses, especially when significant issues like wage increases and working conditions are involved. The proximity to the deadline pressures both parties. Based on past similar labor disputes that often resolved with a strike or last-minute agreement, the likelihood of a strike happening is elevated at this stage.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Processes or actions that could avert a strike include successful intervention by federal mediators, unexpected compromises or acceptance of terms by either party, or public/government pressure leading to an agreement. Changes in the economic impact or public perception leading up to the deadline might also defuse the potential for a strike.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) fail to reach an agreement before the January 15, 2025, deadline. (High likelihood)
– Both the labor and management parties remain steadfast in their positions without compromise or concessions. (Moderate likelihood)
– Support or lack of intervention from government or third-party mediators does not facilitate a resolution. (Moderate likelihood)
– Increased tensions or solidarity actions by dockworkers in Canada influence U.S. negotiations negatively. (Low likelihood)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.7
– confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.68 – confidence: 6) Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.68
Base rate: 0.65 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.11
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.75
Reverse Mellers: 0.62
Theory of Mind: 0.55 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.41
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3

Model value : 0.68

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The likelihood of a strike between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) is high due to several factors: the negotiations are at an impasse with a critical deadline of January 15, 2025, looming; automation, a key issue affecting long-term job security, remains unresolved despite a recent salary agreement; and increased union leverage due to high post-holiday shipping volumes and labor tensions in Canadian ports. Historically, such impasses have often resulted in strikes. However, the potential success of federal mediation, public pressure to prevent supply chain disruptions, or strategic concessions by either party could avert a strike. Economic pressures and public sentiment may encourage compromises, and alternative tactics like work slowdowns could be considered by the union. Multiple rounds of negotiations are possible before the end of Q1, leaving room for a settlement.

How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 15.795
* between 172 and 205: 42.11%
* between 206 and 240: 31.58%
* more than 240: 10.52%

Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:

1. **Title:** Conservatives win B.C. federal byelection, CBC News projects
**URL:** [arabnews24.ca](https://arabnews24.ca)
**Summary:** Conservatives have won the election in British Columbia, according to the latest results. However, the article does not provide further details on the election outcome, such as the margin of victory or the specific candidates who won. The article simply states that the Conservatives have won, without providing any additional information.

2. **Title:** Canada’s Liberals suffer third special election loss to Tories in a row, deepening Trudeau’s woes
**URL:** [theprint.in](https://theprint.in)
**Summary:** Canada’s ruling Liberals have suffered their third consecutive special election loss to the Tories, according to provisional results from the western province of British Columbia. This loss deepens the political woes of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is already facing challenges from within his own party. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned on Monday, citing policy differences with Trudeau, who asked her to take on a lesser role.

3. **Title:** BIV Newsmaker of the Year: John Rustad’s resurrection of the BC Conservatives
**URL:** [princegeorgecitizen.com](https://princegeorgecitizen.com)
**Summary:** John Rustad, the leader of the BC Conservative Party, has been named the BIV Newsmaker of the Year for his party’s historic result in the October election. Despite not having won a seat in the legislature since 1975, the party secured 44 seats, a feat attributed to voter dissatisfaction with status quo governments and a general shift toward right-of-centre politics.

4. **Title:** Pierre Poilievre is The Canadian Press Newsmaker of the Year for second year in a row
**URL:** [cochraneeagle.ca](https://cochraneeagle.ca)
**Summary:** Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been chosen as The Canadian Press Newsmaker of the Year for the second year in a row. Editors across the country placed Poilievre at the top of the list in 2024, capturing just over a quarter of the vote among a group of 10 candidates. Poilievre has cemented his position as Canada’s prime minister-in-waiting, running ahead of his opponents in the polls throughout the year.

5. **Title:** Les Leyne: Conservatives never seem to get along
**URL:** [biv.com](https://biv.com)
**Summary:** The Conservative Party of B.C. has a history of infighting and self-sabotage, which has hindered their ability to build a winning team. Despite their impressive showing in the October election, where they gained 43% of the vote and 44 seats, they are already fracturing due to disagreements over comments made by a former Vancouver police board member.
These articles provide insights into the current status and challenges facing the Canada Conservative Party in recent elections.

*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 18, 2024 01:38 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*

Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent articles discuss various developments involving the Canada Conservative Party, highlighting their successes and internal challenges. The Conservatives have reportedly won a by-election in British Columbia and secured their third consecutive special election victory over the ruling Liberals, exacerbating political difficulties for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. John Rustad, leader of the BC Conservatives, has been recognized for his party’s historic gains, although internal disputes persist. Nationally, Pierre Poilievre continues to be a prominent figure, having been named The Canadian Press Newsmaker of the Year for his influence on Canadian politics. However, the BC branch of the party is experiencing infighting, despite an impressive election showing. These articles provide a snapshot of the party’s mixed fortunes, with electoral success tempered by internal discord.”

Fact-checking news summary: 1. **Fact:** The Conservative Party has won a by-election in British Columbia.
– **Correct:** This fact could be verified through news archives or official election results.
– **Relevance:** True – It indicates the party’s current electoral successes, which may influence future performance.

2. **Fact:** The Conservative Party has secured their third consecutive special election victory over the Liberals.
– **Correct:** This fact would need verification through historical records of special election results.
– **Relevance:** True – Demonstrates a pattern of recent electoral successes against a main rival, relevant to predicting future outcomes.

3. **Fact:** John Rustad is the leader of the BC Conservatives and has been recognized for his party’s historic gains.
– **Correct:** This fact would require verification of John Rustad’s position and acknowledgment of electoral achievements.
– **Relevance:** False – While these developments pertain to provincial politics, they don’t directly impact the federal seat count outcome.

4. **Fact:** Pierre Poilievre has been named The Canadian Press Newsmaker of the Year.
– **Correct:** Verification needed from The Canadian Press for the award.
– **Relevance:** False – Being named Newsmaker of the Year speaks to influence, but doesn’t directly relate to seat count predictions.

5. **Fact:** The BC branch of the Conservative Party is experiencing infighting.
– **Correct:** This fact needs verification through reliable news sources on party dynamics.
– **Relevance:** False – While internal discord could affect the party’s performance, it does not directly answer the question of federal election outcomes.

Each fact would need to be verified individually using a trusted source to confirm their accuracy, as my dataset does not contain real-time information or verify facts from news events.

Fact-checked summary: The Conservative Party has recently seen electoral successes, including winning a by-election in British Columbia, and securing their third consecutive special election victory over the Liberals. These victories indicate a pattern of recent successes for the party, which may influence their performance in future federal elections.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3

Model value:
* less than 172: 0.1579
* between 172 and 205: 0.4211
* between 206 and 240: 0.3158
* more than 240: 0.1052

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The various AI summaries highlight the recent electoral successes of the Conservative Party, including victories in by-elections and special elections, which suggest a positive trend and potentially increased seat counts in upcoming federal elections. However, there is uncertainty about the exact number of seats due to historic competitiveness but challenges in reaching a majority. Current polling indicates increased support for the Conservatives, yet not at levels suggesting a landslide. The analyses also caution that these predictions could change due to factors like shifts in public sentiment, potential recovery by the Liberal Party, unforeseen political events, external news biases, economic changes, and international issues. There’s recognition that the momentum might be overstated and that opposition parties might counter effectively, making outcomes of 172 to 240 seats most plausible but not guaranteed.

Runtime: 198 seconds for all forecasts on this page, combined.

Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts

Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports 

Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).