How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 2%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 10%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 18%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 30%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 25%
* More than 12000: 15%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the current situation in Sudan:
The Sudan conflict has reached a critical turning point as the Sudanese military has just recaptured the Republican Palace in Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a significant symbolic victory after nearly two years of fighting. This was the last major stronghold held by the RSF in the capital.
The ongoing civil war between the Sudanese military and the RSF has created what’s being called the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. The conflict has resulted in widespread civilian casualties, with recent reports indicating dozens of civilians, including humanitarian volunteers, have been killed by artillery shelling and aerial bombardment. The fighting has decimated Sudan’s infrastructure and created massive displacement and hunger problems.
The situation in Khartoum remains dire, with reports describing devastating conditions including overwhelmed gravediggers and widespread destruction. There are growing concerns about the possibility of Sudan splitting into two countries as the conflict continues. The UN and other international organizations are highlighting the urgent humanitarian crisis, with civilians being directly targeted as hostilities intensify in the capital. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced millions since it began in April 2023.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The situation in Sudan has reached a critical point as the Sudanese military has recaptured the Republican Palace in Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a significant symbolic victory in the nearly two-year conflict. The ongoing civil war has reportedly led to what some call the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with widespread civilian casualties, including humanitarian workers, and massive displacement. The conditions in Khartoum are described as dire, with severe destruction and overwhelmed resources, fueling concerns about a potential split of the country. International organizations are emphasizing the urgent need for humanitarian aid, as thousands have been killed and millions displaced since the conflict’s escalation in April 2023. However, given the unreliability of some sources, details should be viewed with caution.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts extracted from the summary, along with assessments of their correctness, importance to the resolution of the question, and their relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** The Sudanese military has recaptured the Republican Palace in Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
– **Correctness:** True/False (The correctness needs to be verified with up-to-date reports from reliable news sources).
– **Importance:** Lesser importance (It is a specific event and does not directly estimate the number of conflict deaths in 2025).
– **Relevance:** True (It relates to the broader context of the conflict but not directly to estimating future deaths).
2. **Fact:** The civil war in Sudan is nearly two years old.
– **Correctness:** True (If the escalation is dated from April 2023 and considering the current year as 2025).
– **Importance:** Important (Understanding the duration of conflict helps in assessing potential trends in conflict deaths).
– **Relevance:** True (Relevant to understanding the scope and development of the conflict dynamics).
3. **Fact:** The ongoing civil war in Sudan is called the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.
– **Correctness:** True/False (Requires verification against other major global crises).
– **Importance:** Important (Indicating severity of the situation which could impact death projections).
– **Relevance:** True (Indirectly affects how one might assess death tolls related to humanitarian conditions).
4. **Fact:** There are widespread civilian casualties, including humanitarian workers.
– **Correctness:** True (Widespread reports confirm high civilian casualties in Sudan).
– **Importance:** Important (Contributes to the death toll but doesn’t provide future estimates).
– **Relevance:** True (Relevance lies in understanding the nature and impact of the conflict).
5. **Fact:** The conditions in Khartoum are dire, with severe destruction and overwhelmed resources.
– **Correctness:** True (Reports consistently describe adverse conditions).
– **Importance:** Important (Environment indicators could influence future casualty predictions).
– **Relevance:** True (Provides context for current and potential suffering, impacting death projections).
6. **Fact:** There are concerns about a potential split of the country.
– **Correctness:** True (Historical and ongoing tensions support this concern).
– **Importance:** Important (A split could alter conflict dynamics and resultant casualties).
– **Relevance:** True (Could impact future death tolls).
7. **Fact:** International organizations emphasize the urgent need for humanitarian aid.
– **Correctness:** True (Consistent with reports from organizations like the UN).
– **Importance:** Important (Indicates efforts to mitigate disaster impacts).
– **Relevance:** True (Support levels could influence future casualties).
8. **Fact:** Thousands have been killed and millions displaced since April 2023.
– **Correctness:** True (Reports confirm significant casualties and displacements).
– **Importance:** Critical (Directly informs on current death toll and trends).
– **Relevance:** True (Essential statistic for projecting future death counts).
9. **Fact:** Details should be viewed with caution due to the unreliability of some sources.
– **Correctness:** True (Information consistency from conflict zones can vary).
– **Importance:** Critical (Affects reliability of any projections based on current data).
– **Relevance:** True (Directly impacts confidence in death toll predictions).
This list captures the essential facts and their relation to forecasting conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
To assess conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025, several aspects are critical. The civil war in Sudan has been ongoing for nearly two years since escalating in April 2023, which is important for understanding conflict trends. The situation is described as the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, marked by widespread civilian casualties, including humanitarian workers, and dire conditions in Khartoum with severe destruction and overwhelmed resources. Thousands have already been killed, and millions displaced since April 2023, providing a critical statistic for projecting future death counts. There are concerns about a potential split of the country, which could significantly alter conflict dynamics and impact resultant casualties. International organizations emphasize the urgent need for humanitarian aid, suggesting efforts to mitigate disaster impacts. Nevertheless, caution is advised due to the unreliability of some sources, which critically affects the reliability of any projections based on current data. These elements are fundamental for evaluating the future death toll in Sudan.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.02, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.3, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.18, “More than 12000”: 0.05] – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.1, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.18, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.28, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.18] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 2%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 10%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 18%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 30%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 25%
* More than 12000: 15%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The ongoing civil war in Sudan, starting in April 2023, represents a dire humanitarian crisis with thousands of deaths and millions displaced, making it potentially the world’s largest such crisis. The situation in Khartoum and elsewhere has led to high civilian casualties, with the possibility of the country splitting potentially escalating the conflict further. Projections suggest significant death tolls continuing into 2025, with estimates in the 5000-8000 range. However, this prediction could be affected by variables such as international intervention, successful peace negotiations, inaccurate data, and humanitarian challenges leading to deaths from disease and starvation not traditionally counted in conflict death tolls. There’s considerable uncertainty due to the volatile nature of the conflict and potential external influences like aid or negotiation efforts altering the current trajectory.
Runtime: 135 seconds for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 42%
* between 172 and 205: 37%
* between 206 and 240: 16%
* more than 240: 5%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most Recent Developments (last 24 hours):
– A federal election call is expected as soon as Sunday, with significant changes anticipated in the political landscape
– The Conservative Party has announced they won’t allow reporters to travel with party leader Pierre Poilievre during the campaign
– In Newfoundland and Labrador, five Liberal MPs have decided not to seek re-election, guaranteeing major changes in that province’s representation
Key Political Context:
– The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, appears to be leading in polls and claims to have “gathered a huge amount of support”
– Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is being mentioned as a potential Liberal Party figure, though some conservative groups have launched controversial attack ads against him
– Donald Trump made unexpected comments saying he “doesn’t care” if Liberals beat Conservatives in Canada
The political climate appears tense, with significant focus on economic issues, including concerns about trade relations and Canada’s economic stagnation over the past decade. Multiple regions are seeing changes in their candidate lineups, with both established and new candidates announcing their intentions to run. The election is expected to be highly consequential for Canada’s political direction, with major debates likely to center on economic management, trade relations, and domestic policy priorities.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The upcoming Canadian federal election is generating significant attention due to anticipated shifts in the political landscape, including the expected announcement of an election call as soon as Sunday. Recent developments indicate the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is currently leading in polls and has opted to restrict media access during the campaign. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the decision by five Liberal MPs not to seek re-election promises notable changes in regional representation. Additionally, the political climate is charged with economic issues at the forefront, alongside debates on trade and domestic policy. Figures like former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney are emerging in political discussions, while controversial ads and unexpected commentary from figures like Donald Trump add to the election’s complexity. The election is set to play a critical role in determining Canada’s future political and economic direction.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the summary provided, below is a list of specific facts, their evaluation for correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact: An election call is expected to be announced as soon as Sunday.**
– *Correctness*: False. While the summary mentions an anticipated announcement, without a specific date or official confirmation, this fact remains speculative. There was no mentioned date of the upcoming election or Sunday.
– *Importance*: Important. The timing of the election call can significantly influence campaign strategies and voter turnout.
– *Relevance*: True. The election call is directly related to determining how many seats the Conservative Party might win.
2. **Fact: The Conservative Party is led by Pierre Poilievre.**
– *Correctness*: True. As of the latest updates, Pierre Poilievre is indeed the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
– *Importance*: Critical. The leader of a party is directly linked to its potential performance in an election.
– *Relevance*: True. Leadership is relevant to evaluating potential voter alignment and outcomes.
3. **Fact: The Conservative Party is currently leading in polls.**
– *Correctness*: Uncertain/True. Specific poll data from credible sources would be needed to verify this claim, but the summary states this as a current observation. [Carolyn’s note: Out of Date. Now Liberals are surging in the polls.]
– *Importance*: Critical. Poll standings provide a snapshot of potential election outcomes.
– *Relevance*: True. Polls are indicative of potential electoral performance and outcomes.
4. **Fact: The Conservative Party has opted to restrict media access during the campaign.**
– *Correctness*: True. It’s a reported strategic option some parties take during campaigns.
– *Importance*: Important. Media strategy can influence public perception and coverage.
– *Relevance*: True. Media interactions could affect voter perception and thus election outcomes.
5. **Fact: Five Liberal MPs from Newfoundland and Labrador are not seeking re-election.**
– *Correctness*: True/False. Verification is required with specific electoral data or announcements, but resignations or retirements impact dynamics.
– *Importance*: Important. Changes in candidate availability can influence regional election results.
– *Relevance*: True. Directly affects seat distributions, especially if these were previously Liberal seats.
6. **Fact: Economic issues are at the forefront of the election campaign.**
– *Correctness*: True. Economic issues commonly dominate political campaigns.
– *Importance*: Important. Core voter concerns often pivot on economic platforms.
– *Relevance*: True. Economic policy often influences voting decisions, impacting seat wins.
7. **Fact: Debates on trade and domestic policy are prominent in the election.**
– *Correctness*: True. Trade and domestic policy are prevalent topics in elections.
– *Importance*: Important. Policy proposals can sway electoral fortunes.
– *Relevance*: True. These policies relate to voters’ priorities impacting election outcomes.
8. **Fact: Figures like former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney are emerging in political discussions.**
– *Correctness*: True. Mark Carney has been involved in Canadian politics discussions.
– *Importance*: Lesser Importance. While influential, individual figures not leading parties may have less direct impact on seat outcomes.
– *Relevance*: False. While notable, this does not directly relate to Conservative seat outcomes.
9. **Fact: Controversial ads and commentary from figures like Donald Trump add to the election’s complexity.**
– *Correctness*: True. Political campaigns often feature various external influences.
– *Importance*: Lesser Importance. These add to the narrative complexity but might not directly impact seat counts.
– *Relevance*: False. External commentary is less likely to directly influence seat counts unless it resonates prominently with voters.
10. **Fact: The election will play a critical role in determining Canada’s future political and economic direction.**
– *Correctness*: True. Elections inherently shape future governance and policy.
– *Importance*: Critical. Election outcomes dictate national leadership.
– *Relevance*: True. Directly impacts overall political control and policy direction, including seat allocations.
Fact-checked summary:
Pierre Poilievre is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, which is an important detail as leadership can significantly influence a party’s performance in elections. The Conservative Party is reportedly opting to restrict media access during the campaign, a strategic decision that could shape voter perception and subsequently affect election outcomes. Additionally, economic issues, debates on trade and domestic policy are significant focal points in the campaign, influencing voter decisions and potentially impacting the number of seats the Conservative Party might secure. This election plays a crucial role in determining Canada’s future political and economic direction, directly affecting party control and seat distribution in parliament.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 25%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 25%
* more than 240: 5%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction for the Conservative Party’s performance in the upcoming Canadian federal elections is influenced by several key factors, including Pierre Poilievre’s leadership and current political dynamics. Historical election data and current polling trends suggest a moderate outcome, with the party likely to win between 172 to 240 seats, and a median expectation of 172-205 seats. Economic issues and trade policies are central themes that typically enhance Conservative appeal, but the decision to restrict media access could have mixed effects, potentially affecting voter trust and media coverage. However, the prediction remains uncertain due to potential shifts in voter sentiment, unforeseen events such as scandals, and the impact of regional or economic changes that might alter the anticipated electoral outcome.
[All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
