Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s Sudan conflict deaths forecast, June 6, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?

Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 6%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 16%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 28%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 38%
* More than 12000: 11%

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan conflict deaths 2025
News from various sources:

In Sudan’s capital Khartoum, a severe cholera outbreak has emerged as a major health crisis, exacerbated by ongoing conflict between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The outbreak has resulted in at least 70 deaths over two days, as reported by health officials. The Health Ministry recorded 2,119 new cholera infections, with a total of 172 cholera-related deaths reported nationally in a single week, 90% of which occurred in Khartoum.

The city has been severely impacted by over two years of fighting that devastated infrastructure, including water and electricity supplies. This situation has led to deteriorating sanitation and public health conditions. As many as 90% of hospitals in the conflict zones have ceased functioning, contributing to the dire health care circumstances.
Since the onset of the conflict in April 2023, tens of thousands have died, 13 million have been displaced, and this cholera outbreak represents an escalating public health emergency. The UN predicts worsening conditions with the imminent rainy season and limited access to clean water, putting millions, including over one million children in Khartoum, at risk.

Cholera was declared a national epidemic in August 2024, and since then, over 65,000 cases and 1,700 deaths have been reported across the country. Aid agencies are urgently calling for international intervention to manage this crisis and prevent further catastrophe. The humanitarian crisis is compounded by the lack of basic services, and the UN has described the situation as one of the world’s largest displacement and hunger crises.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts taken from the summary, along with an analysis of their correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact:** A severe cholera outbreak has emerged in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum.
– *Correctness:* True (Internally consistent with the summary and plausible)
– *Importance:* Important (Provides context for public health and infrastructure issues)
– *Relevance:* True (Related to the broader context affecting state-based conflict deaths indirectly)
2. **Fact:** The cholera outbreak has resulted in at least 70 deaths over two days, as reported by health officials.
– *Correctness:* True (Plausible within the context but needs external verification)
– *Importance:* Important (Indicates the severity of the cholera outbreak)
– *Relevance:* True (Provides understanding of public health crises impacting survival amidst conflict)
3. **Fact:** 172 cholera-related deaths were reported nationally in one week, with 90% in Khartoum.
– *Correctness:* True (Plausible within the context but needs external verification)
– *Importance:* Important (Shows the concentration of health issues in Khartoum)
– *Relevance:* True (Relevant as it reflects impacts on population numbers but not directly on conflict deaths)
4. **Fact:** Khartoum’s infrastructure, including water and electricity supplies, has been devastated due to over two years of fighting.
– *Correctness:* True (Internally consistent and plausible, given the context of ongoing conflict)
– *Importance:* Critical (Directly affects health, sanitation, and conflict conditions)
– *Relevance:* True (Highly relevant to understanding factors influencing conflict-related deaths)
5. **Fact:** 90% of hospitals in conflict zones have ceased functioning.
– *Correctness:* True (Internally consistent and plausible)
– *Importance:* Critical (Direct impact on ability to provide health care and handle casualties)
– *Relevance:* True (Relevant to the outcome as it influences mortality rates indirectly)
6. **Fact:** Since the conflict began in April 2023, tens of thousands have died and 13 million have been displaced.
– *Correctness:* True (Internally consistent, highly plausible for a regional conflict but would need external verification)
– *Importance:* Critical (Directly speaks to conflict severity)
– *Relevance:* True (Directly affects understanding of conflict deaths)
7. **Fact:** A worsening of conditions is predicted by the UN with the imminent rainy season in Khartoum.
– *Correctness:* True (Internally consistent and plausible prediction)
– *Importance:* Important (Indicates potential for increased displacement and health crises worsening)
– *Relevance:* True (Indicates potential for increased mortality but not directly within conflict calculation)
8. **Fact:** Over one million children in Khartoum are at risk due to limited access to clean water.
– *Correctness:* True (Plausible given the conditions described; needs external verification)
– *Importance:* Important (Illustrates vulnerability within the population)
– *Relevance:* False (Not directly linked to state-based conflict death calculations)
9. **Fact:** Cholera was declared a national epidemic in August 2024.
– *Correctness:* True (Internally consistent, plausible)
– *Importance:* Important (Marks a national health emergency)
– *Relevance:* False (Not directly affecting 2025 conflict-related death calculations)
10. **Fact:** Over 65,000 cholera cases and 1,700 deaths have been reported nationally across the country.
– *Correctness:* True (Plausible in the context of epidemic, but needs external verification)
– *Importance:* Important (Indicates national health burden extent)
– *Relevance:* False (Doesn’t directly determine state-based conflict deaths)
11. **Fact:** The UN describes the situation as one of the world’s largest displacement and hunger crises.
– *Correctness:* True (Consistent with reported humanitarian crises; would need external verification)
– *Importance:* Critical (Indicates scale of the crisis)
– *Relevance:* True (Relates to underlying factors influencing conflict deaths)

The main focus of the summary is the cholera outbreak’s severity, infrastructure devastation, and a prediction of worsening conditions, indirectly tied to future mortality and possible change in conflict intensity but not directly answering the question about state-based conflict deaths reported by ACLED in 2025.

Fact-checked summary:
The situation in Sudan is marked by severe challenges that are interconnected with potential state-based conflict death estimates. A severe cholera outbreak has emerged in Khartoum, resulting in at least 70 deaths over two days, and nationally there have been 172 cholera-related deaths in one week, with 90% occurring in Khartoum. The city’s infrastructure, including water and electricity supplies, has been devastated due to over two years of fighting, which directly affects health, sanitation, and conflict conditions. Additionally, 90% of hospitals in conflict zones have ceased functioning, critically impacting the ability to provide healthcare and handle casualties. Since the conflict began in April 2023, tens of thousands have died and 13 million have been displaced, highlighting the severity of the situation. The UN predicts worsening conditions with the imminent rainy season in Khartoum, indicating potential for increased displacement and health crises. The UN describes the situation as one of the world’s largest displacement and hunger crises, illustrating the significant scale of the crisis affecting the region. These factors provide a troubling context that could indirectly influence the number of state-based conflict deaths, though they do not directly answer the specific question about reports by ACLED in 2025.

OpenAI gives a base rate of Between 8000 and 12000 deaths
The question difficulty is rated 6 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Deaths in previous years of similar conflicts, 0.4
Persistent infrastructure collapse, 0.3
Health crises impacting conflict areas, 0.2
Current conflict intensity and displacement levels, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors and current news, we weighted each factor by its significance and estimated the probability of each death range scenario. Probability estimates are combined to give a distribution that suggests the ‘Between 8000 and 12000’ deaths range may be most likely.
Bayesian base rate: 55%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 570 (Carolyn’s note: The Multi-AI Oracle is having trouble again with counting. The actual number is 207.)

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was approached by examining deaths from similar protracted conflicts such as the Yemen and Syrian civil wars, factoring in the current intensity of the Sudan conflict, and adding weights based on infrastructure collapse and health crisis predictions.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
More in-depth data on specific military and non-military casualty numbers from reliable reports such as ACLED would be ideal. Additionally, real-time updates on the peace process or ceasefire attempts, and independent assessments of damage to infrastructure would enrich this forecast.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
A sudden, successful peace negotiation or international intervention could rapidly decrease conflict-related deaths. Conversely, intensifying hostilities or severe epidemics could increase the death toll beyond current projections.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively: (Carolyn’s note: “positive” means close to its prediction)
– Continued high-intensity conflict in Sudan until 2025 Likely
– Persistent infrastructure degradation affecting healthcare and public services Very likely
– No effective peace agreement or conflict resolution Likely
– Increasing impact of health crises on conflict mortality Moderate

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.2, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.1] – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.39, “More than 12000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.14, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.35, “More than 12000”: 0.35] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.098888888888889, Max: 0.2
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 6%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 16%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 28%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 38%
* More than 12000: 11%
The various AI assessments highlight the complexities and uncertainties associated with evaluating the impact of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023. Key factors in the reasoning include the intense conflict leading to significant infrastructure collapse, a severe cholera outbreak, and the absence of a peace agreement, all of which are contributing to elevated mortality rates. Historical comparisons to prolonged conflicts in Yemen and Syria underline the expectation of sustained high conflict-related deaths, with estimates suggesting the toll could range from 5,000 to 12,000 deaths by mid-2025. However, there are caveats to this prediction: unreported peace agreements, underreporting in conflict zones due to compromised data collection, and potential international interventions could alter the situation’s trajectory. Moreover, reliance on possibly unreliable news sources and the exclusion of disease-related deaths from certain reporting methodologies add layers
of complexity to accurate forecasting.

Runtime: 140 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.