Updates from BestWorld’s AI Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman of Jan. 22, 2025

The International Longshoremen’s Association returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 8%, same as  yesterday’s 8%. Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the key developments.

A potential major strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports was averted [Carolyn‘s note: only temporarily averted] after the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing about 45,000 dock workers, reached a tentative six-year agreement with port operators and shipping companies. The key issue in negotiations was the impact of automation and new technologies on dock workers’ jobs.

The deal appears to have found middle ground on technology adoption, with provisions to protect existing jobs while allowing for some modernization of port operations. The agreement was notable for addressing workers’ concerns about AI and automation potentially displacing human workers, while still keeping U.S. ports competitive internationally.

The most recent reporting indicates that the resolution was well-received by both labor and management, with union leadership expressing satisfaction about job protections secured in the deal. The agreement helps avoid potential supply chain disruptions that could have impacted various sectors including agriculture and retail, while also preventing possible inflationary pressures that a strike might have caused. This marks the second major port labor agreement in recent years, following earlier successful negotiations on the West Coast.

This development is particularly significant as it reflects broader ongoing tensions between technological advancement and job security in various industries, with dock workers being at the forefront of negotiating terms for how automation will be implemented in their workplace.

Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“In early 2025, a major strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports was narrowly avoided as the International Longshoremen’s Association reached a tentative six-year agreement with port operators and shipping companies. The negotiations primarily focused on the impact of automation and new technologies on the dock workers’ jobs. The agreement manages to strike a balance between the adoption of modern technologies and the protection of existing jobs, addressing concerns about AI and automation displacing human workers while maintaining the competitiveness of U.S. ports. The reported response from both labor and management has been positive, as the deal averts potential supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures that a strike could have triggered, underscoring ongoing tensions around job security and technological advancements.”

Fact-checking news summary:

The agreement by US Dock Workers to salary increases indicates some progress in negotiations, but the return to the bargaining table to discuss automation and other issues suggests that there are still significant topics to be resolved. Historically, automation has been a contentious issue during labor negotiations, often leading to prolonged discussions. While the agreement on salary increases is a positive development, it does not guarantee a smooth resolution to other complex topics. Therefore, while progress has been made, the probability of a strike in Q1 2025 remains uncertain due to unresolved important issues like automation.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3.The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate of a strike occurring in labor negotiations involving automation — a historically contentious issue — is used as a reference. Strikes in the dockworking industry are not uncommon, particularly when tough topics like automation come up. The agreement on salary increases suggests some progress, but unresolved automation issues indicate there’s potential for contention. Looking at recent history of labor negotiations, the probability of a strike typically ranges from 20% to 40%, especially if key issues remain unresolved.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Factors that could deviate the outcome from the base rate include a potential breakthrough in negotiations regarding automation, perhaps influenced by external economic pressures or government intervention. Additionally, if dock workers receive assurances or alternative compensations, it could prevent a strike. Alternatively, escalating tensions or poor handling of negotiation breakdowns could increase the likelihood of a strike beyond the base rate.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Negotiations between US dock workers and employers continue into Q1 2025 with no resolution on automation and other contentious issues. (Likely)
– Existing agreements, such as the salary increases, do not alleviate tensions or are insufficient to prevent discontent. (Moderately Likely)
– Neither party is willing to compromise on critical issues like automation. (Possible)
– Dock workers vote in favor of striking. (Possible)

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3

Model value: 0.35

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:

The prediction of a potential strike in dock worker negotiations largely centers on the unresolved issue of automation, which has historically been more contentious and prone to strikes than salary disputes. Although recent successful salary negotiations have created some goodwill and could indicate a willingness to compromise, the likelihood of a strike remains significant due to the ongoing challenges posed by automation. The base rate of strikes in similar scenarios is typically around 30%, but this rate might be slightly increased given the current situation’s complexity and time constraints. However, the prediction could be inaccurate if external factors like economic pressures, government intervention, or further negotiation breakthroughs occur. Additionally, the goodwill from salary agreements and the unique current economic conditions may reduce the strike likelihood more than anticipated.





How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today:
*
less than 172: 18.18%
* between 172 and 205: 40.91%
* between 206 and 240: 27.27%
* more than 240: 13.64%

Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the key developments in Canadian politics:

Most Recent/Significant Developments:
– Ontario Premier Doug Ford is reportedly considering calling an early provincial election as soon as next week, citing a need for a new mandate to deal with potential Trump tariffs. An internal memo from Ford’s office has signaled this possibility, though the next election wasn’t originally due until 2026.
– The federal political landscape shows the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre leading in polls, with several key policy positions announced:
– A promise to reverse recent capital gains tax changes
– A pledge to “defund” the CBC if elected
– Focus on housing crisis solutions, though polls indicate Canadians have limited faith in any party’s ability to address this issue effectively
Regional Updates:
– The P.E.I. Green Party has moved up its leadership selection timeline by about a year
– In Manitoba, there’s analysis of potential federal riding changes in the anticipated 2025 election
– In B.C., there’s movement in candidate nominations, including a Kelowna radio host considering a federal run.

The overall context suggests Canada is entering an active political period with both provincial (Ontario) and federal elections potentially on the horizon. Housing affordability, economic policy, and media funding (CBC) are emerging as key campaign issues.

Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent developments in the Canadian political landscape indicate a potential increase in electoral activity, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford reportedly considering calling an early provincial election to seek a mandate amid concerns over possible Trump tariffs, despite the next election not being due until 2026. On the federal front, the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, are leading in polls and have outlined key policy proposals, including reversing capital gains tax changes, defunding the CBC, and addressing the housing crisis, though public confidence in effective solutions remains low. Additionally, regional political movements include the P.E.I. Green Party accelerating its leadership selection, discussions of potential federal riding changes in Manitoba, and candidate nominations in B.C. These developments suggest a politically active period in Canada, with significant focus on economic issues and media funding.”

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary along with their evaluations:

1. **Fact:** Ontario Premier Doug Ford is reportedly considering calling an early provincial election.
– **Correct (True/False):** True
– **Importance:** Lesser importance
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** False

2. **Fact:** The next Ontario provincial election is not due until 2026.
– **Correct (True/False):** True
– **Importance:** Lesser importance
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** False

3. **Fact:** There are concerns over possible Trump tariffs.
– **Correct (True/False):** True (While general concerns about Trump’s policies may exist, this is not directly linked to the federal parliamentary seat outcome.)
– **Importance:** Unimportant
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** False

4. **Fact:** The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, are leading in polls.
– **Correct (True/False):** True (Assuming current polling data supports this.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** True

5. **Fact:** The Conservatives have outlined key policy proposals including reversing capital gains tax changes.
– **Correct (True/False):** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** True

6. **Fact:** The Conservatives propose defunding the CBC.
– **Correct (True/False):** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** True

7. **Fact:** The Conservatives are addressing the housing crisis.
– **Correct (True/False):** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** True

8. **Fact:** Public confidence in effective solutions to these issues remains low.
– **Correct (True/False):** True (Generally, public skepticism about political solutions can be observed.)
– **Importance:** Lesser importance
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** True

9. **Fact:** The P.E.I. Green Party is accelerating its leadership selection.
– **Correct (True/False):** True
– **Importance:** Lesser importance
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** False

10. **Fact:** There are discussions of potential federal riding changes in Manitoba.
– **Correct (True/False):** True
– **Importance:** Lesser importance
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** False

11. **Fact:** There are candidate nominations in B.C.
– **Correct (True/False):** True
– **Importance:** Lesser importance
– **Relevance to outcome (True/False):** False

By analyzing these facts, we can determine the factors that might directly influence the outcome regarding the number of seats the Conservative Party will win in the next federal election, namely their current lead in the polls and their proposed policies.

Fact-checked summary:
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is currently leading in the polls, which is an important indication of their potential to win seats in the next federal parliamentary election. Additionally, the party has outlined key policy proposals that are relevant to voters, including reversing capital gains tax changes, defunding the CBC, and addressing the housing crisis. These policy initiatives are essential as they highlight the party’s priorities and strategies that might influence voter support. However, public confidence in the effectiveness of political solutions to these issues remains low, which could impact the party’s success despite their current standings and proposals.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.05, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3

Model value:
* less than 172: 0.1818
* between 172 and 205: 0.4091
* between 206 and 240: 0.2727
* more than 240: 0.1364

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is currently leading in the polls, reflecting potential voter alignment with their key policy proposals such as reversing capital gains tax changes and addressing the housing crisis. This lead suggests the possibility of gaining a significant number of seats in the next election; however, historical volatility in Canadian federal elections, public skepticism about political solutions, and potential shifts in regional voting patterns pose risks to the Conservatives’ anticipated success. Factors such as the timing of the election, unforeseen events, and the strategies of opposing parties like the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Québécois could influence voter turnout and sentiment, potentially altering the electoral outcome. The effectiveness of the Conservative’s appeal to voters and the regional distribution of their support will be crucial in determining their actual seat gains.

Runtime for both forecasts on this page: 175 seconds.

Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts

Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports 

Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).

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