Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, July 2, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?

6–8 minutes read time

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts just 1%. Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire July 2025
News from various sources:

– U.S. President Donald Trump has urged Israel and Hamas to agree on a ceasefire and the return of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Trump communicated this via a post on his Truth Social platform, emphasizing the urgency of reaching an agreement.
– Trump mentioned that a ceasefire-for-captives deal could be finalized soon, with discussions ongoing with involved parties. He indicated that a resolution might occur within the next week.
– Approximately 50 hostages are currently held by terrorists in Gaza, as per Israeli estimates. These hostages include individuals abducted during the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas and the body of Lt. Hadar Goldin, an Israeli soldier.
– Trump has reiterated his call to halt Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial while praising his efforts in U.S.-Israel collaborations against the Iranian nuclear threat. Trump highlighted Netanyahu’s role in negotiating a deal with Hamas concerning the hostages.
– U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has met with families of the hostages, reaffirming the administration’s commitment to securing their release. Rubio acknowledged the importance of U.S. leadership in Middle East affairs.
– Mediators, including Qatar, are actively working to leverage the momentum from a recent ceasefire with Iran to encourage a truce in Gaza. Efforts focus on utilizing the current opportunity to advance peace negotiations.
– Meanwhile, Israeli military operations continue in Gaza. The IDF, alongside the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet), has been active in combating Hamas forces and infrastructure, including the recent killing of senior Hamas military figure Hakham Muhammad Issa al-Issa.
– The ongoing “Operation Gideon’s Chariot” aims to dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities, secure hostages, and reestablish control over areas in Gaza. The operation involves significant military force and warnings for civilians to evacuate certain areas for safety.
– The situation remains dynamic, with the international community watching closely as mediators push for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

Fact-checking news summary:
Fact-check did not return a result. Using news summary.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 30%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Previous ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, 0.4
International mediation effectiveness, 0.3
Past negotiations involving hostages, 0.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors: P(ceasefire | historical data) = base_rate * (1 + sum(weights*current_factors)) = 0.3 * (1 + 0.4 + 0.3) = 0.51.
Bayesian base rate: 51%
(Carolyn’s note: The Multi-AI Oracle is ignoring this high base rate given the specifics of the current Israel/Hamas conflict. Normally, Israel ends conflicts fast, for example, the June 2025 Israel/Iran conflict.)The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by examining similar historical events where tensions between Israel and Hamas have led to ceasefires, influenced by international mediation and negotiations over hostages.

Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 7

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Detailed insights into the ongoing negotiations, internal political dynamics in Israel and Palestine, and the positions of other regional stakeholders like Egypt would provide a more informed forecast.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
If Israel’s military operations in Gaza see significant success, the leverage for negotiations might decrease. Alternatively, if international pressures increase, especially from influential parties like the U.S., the chances of a ceasefire could rise.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Israel and Hamas agree on a ceasefire. (Moderate likelihood)
– Release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. (Moderate likelihood)
– Mediation efforts by Qatar and international players result in a breakthrough. (Moderate likelihood)
– Continued pressure from the U.S. and international community leads to de-escalation. (Moderate likelihood)

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0 – confidence: 10)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0 – confidence: 10)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
MAPD: 0.033333333333333
Confidence: 10
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0
Reverse Mellers: 0
Theory of Mind: 0 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: N/A
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 1%
The reasoning from the various AIs collectively concludes that there was no ceasefire declared in June 2025 between Israel and Hamas. The analysis noted ongoing military operations, particularly Operation Gideon’s Chariot by Israel in Gaza, and emphasized the pressure from international mediation efforts, including those involving Donald Trump and Qatar, which did not result in a public agreement. While historical patterns and mediating efforts typically influence ceasefires, the unpredictability due to Trump’s involvement and the dynamic conflict environment further reduced the likelihood of a ceasefire during this period. Some AIs indicated possible errors or alternative scenarios where a ceasefire could have been declared but not publicly known, yet this was considered improbable due to the expected media coverage of such an event. Overall, the consensus suggests that despite efforts and pressures, no ceasefire was reached within the specified timeframe.

Runtime: 145 seconds.