Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 15%
This question is a side competition with the RAND Forecasting Initiative’s forecasting of this question. Their consensus forecast today—>
8–10 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Pakistan India hostilities 2025
News from various sources:
The web content you provided primarily discusses a recent diplomatic development involving the nomination of former U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize due to his role in the India-Pakistan conflict. Pakistan nominated Trump, citing his diplomatic intervention and leadership in defusing tensions between the two countries.
However, India has denied Trump’s claims, stating that there was no third-party mediation in their peace talks, which were direct. The content also references Trump’s broader comments on his efforts in mediating international conflicts, such as between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as his thoughts on why he hasn’t received a Nobel Prize.
Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the provided summary, here is a list of specific facts along with their verification and assessments regarding their importance and relevance to the original question:
1. **Fact**: Former U.S. President Donald Trump was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
– **Correctness**: True. It is possible for anyone to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. While it is an interesting development, it is not directly linked to the likelihood of hostilities between India and Pakistan or the casualty count.
– **Relevance**: False. This fact does not directly impact the resolution of whether hostilities will result in 100 casualties in the specified timeframe.
2. **Fact**: Pakistan nominated Trump for his role in the India-Pakistan conflict.
– **Correctness**: Undetermined. There is no specific verification provided in the summary about the formal nomination by Pakistan.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. It doesn’t influence the outcome of potential hostilities or casualties.
– **Relevance**: False. This fact doesn’t affect the core question regarding casualties.
3. **Fact**: Trump claimed a role in defusing tensions between India and Pakistan.
– **Correctness**: True, as it is reported that Trump made such claims.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. Trump’s claims do not provide precise information about current or future hostilities.
– **Relevance**: False. While related to diplomatic relations, it does not directly contribute to the prediction of casualties.
4. **Fact**: India denied Trump’s mediation claims, asserting direct peace talks.
– **Correctness**: True, based on the summary.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. It questions the validity of Trump’s influence but doesn’t assess future hostilities.
– **Relevance**: False. The denial does not have a direct bearing on future casualties.
5. **Fact**: Trump’s broader comments include those on international conflicts, like Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
– **Correctness**: True, according to the summary provided.
– **Importance**: Unimportant. These comments are peripheral and unrelated to the India-Pakistan hostilities.
– **Relevance**: False. This information is not relevant to the prediction of casualties between India and Pakistan.
In conclusion, the summary contains no directly relevant facts about hostilities or potential casualties between India and Pakistan in the specified timeframe of June to September 2025. The majority of the content does not directly inform the question of uniformed casualties.
Fact-checked summary:
The fact-checked summary reveals no directly relevant or confirmed true facts about the possibility of hostilities or potential casualties between India and Pakistan within the timeframe of June to September 2025. While several facts are discussed, such as Trump’s claims regarding his role in defusing tensions and India’s denial of these claims, they do not directly influence or provide precise information about the outcome of potential hostilities or the prediction of casualties. Therefore, they bear lesser importance and are not relevant to answering the question of whether hostilities will lead to at least 100 uniformed casualties with at least one death during the specified period.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 10%
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Historical frequency of hostilities leading to 100 casualties between India and Pakistan, 0.3
Current geopolitical tensions, 0.5
Recent diplomatic engagements or peace-building initiatives, 0.2
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using a Bayesian update: prior base rate (0.1) updated with historical factors (0.5 current tensions as a slight increase, offset by 0.2 diplomacy reducing likelihood). Adjusted rate = 0.1 * 1.3 – 0.2 * (0.1) = 0.11 approximately.
Bayesian base rate: 11%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 100
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was informed by the historical frequency of incidents between these two countries escalating to significant military engagements resulting in high casualties, particularly in the recent decade. This analysis considered sub-events like military exercises along borders and recent diplomatic communications.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional intelligence on military movements, diplomatic discussions, or third-party mediations could refine the prediction. Monitoring border skirmishes or political speeches could also provide more insight.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
However, current diplomatic efforts might reduce the probability further, emphasizing peace talks or international pressures. Additionally, changes in leadership or sudden geopolitical shifts could drastically alter the likelihood.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– New hostilities arise between India and Pakistan. Possible
– Militaries on both sides engage in combat actions leading to 100 uniformed casualties. Unlikely
– At least one fatality among uniformed personnel occurs during the specified period. Low likelihood
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.08 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.03
MAPD: 0.046666666666667
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.2 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.07
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 15%
The reasoning from the AIs collectively suggests that historically, large-scale military engagements between India and Pakistan resulting in significant casualties are rare, with the nuclear deterrent and diplomatic efforts serving as key deterrents. The base rate of such incidents is low, and the current geopolitical stability, diplomatic channels, and mutual economic interests further decrease the likelihood of escalation within the period from June to September 2025. While there is acknowledgment of potential triggers like border skirmishes or unforeseen geopolitical shifts that could rapidly escalate tensions, the overall assessment is that the probability of reaching the specified threshold of 100 fatalities from a single incident remains low. Nevertheless, external factors, misinformation, or rapid changes in the political landscape could increase uncertainty in predictions.
Runtime: 93 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy’s bots —>
Source: https://kashmir.liveuamap.com/
