How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2025 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai bot forecasts today:
less than 130: 70%
between 130 and 171: 25%
between 172 and 205: 3%
between 206 and 240: 1%
more than 240: 1%
Perplexity response:
{think}
Alright, let’s tackle this query step by step. The user is asking about the number of seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s upcoming election on April 28, 2024. They need this information to determine if the Conservatives will reach the 172-seat threshold to control Parliament without a coalition. The possible options are five ranges, so the answer has to fit into one of those.
Model’s Answer:
Okay, let’s break down the forecast for the Conservative Party’s seat count in the upcoming Canadian parliamentary election, assumed to be on April 28, 2025 (correcting the likely typo in the prompt from 2024). The election is only five days away, so recent polling and projections carry significant weight.
**Analysis of Current Situation:**
1. **Polling Consensus:** Multiple reputable sources (Nanos, 338Canada, Qc125, Ipsos, Leger, CBC aggregations) indicate a consistent trend: the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, holds a lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. National vote intentions place the Liberals in the low-to-mid 40s (%) and the Conservatives in the mid-to-high 30s (%).
2. **Seat Projections:** This vote share translates into seat projections that strongly favor a Liberal majority
government (projected range generally 172-196 seats). Conversely, the Conservative Party is consistently projected to win significantly fewer seats. The most cited projections for the Conservatives are:
* ~121 seats (Nanos/CBC)
* 124 seats (Qc125, Apr 22)
* 125 seats (338Canada, Apr 22, range 91-158)
* 121-129 seats (Assistant 2 synthesis)
* 133 seats (Economic Times/YouGov, Apr 23)
3. **Key Thresholds:** The threshold for a majority government is 172 seats. The forecast ranges provided are ‘less than 130’, ‘between 130 and 171’, ‘between 172 and 205’, etc.
4. **Recent Dynamics:** Reports suggest Liberal momentum attributed to Mark Carney’s leadership, economic plans, and stance on trade issues. High advance voter turnout (~7.3 million) is also noted, often seen as benefiting the party with momentum (currently the Liberals). While one pollster (Mainstreet) showed a closer race (41% tie), this appears to be an outlier compared to the broader consensus.
5. **Proximity to Election:** With only five days remaining, large shifts in public opinion are less likely, though not impossible. Polls conducted this close to an election tend to be more predictive, barring major unforeseen events or systemic polling errors.
**Synthesizing the Projections:**
The vast majority of recent, credible projections place the Conservative seat count firmly in the 121-129 range. This falls squarely within the ‘less than 130’ category. The 338Canada model, a specialized Canadian projection source, estimates 125 seats. The Economic Times projection of 133 seats is slightly higher and falls just inside the ‘between 130 and 171’ category.
Given the strong consensus around the low 120s from multiple specialized sources like 338Canada, Qc125, and Nanos/CBC aggregations, the most likely outcome is ‘less than 130’ seats. However, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty in polling, the possibility of minor shifts, and the single projection at 133 seats (plus the upper end of the 338 range reaching 158), the ‘between 130 and 171’ category holds a non-trivial probability. The chances of the Conservatives reaching the 172-seat majority threshold appear very low based on current data.
**Probability Distribution:**
Considering the Brier score implications and the need to reflect uncertainty while respecting the strong polling signal:
* **’less than 130′:** This is the most likely outcome, strongly supported by the central estimates of major Canadian forecasters (121-129 range). High probability.
* **’between 130 and 171′:** This accounts for potential polling error favoring the Conservatives, the single higher projection (133), the upper bound of 338’s uncertainty range, and the possibility of a late tightening (e.g., Mainstreet poll). Moderate probability, clearly secondary to the first bin.
* **’between 172 and 205‘, ‘between 206 and 240’, ‘more than 240’:** These outcomes require a substantial polling miss or a dramatic, unexpected last-minute shift. They represent Conservative minority/majority governments or even landslides, which current data deems highly improbable. Very low probabilities assigned here, diminishing further for higher seat counts.
I will assign the highest probability to ‘less than 130’, a significant but lower probability to ‘between 130 and 171’, and very low probabilities to the remaining options.
less than 130: 70%
between 130 and 171: 25%
between 172 and 205: 3%
between 206 and 240: 1%
more than 240: 1%
