How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in July, 2025?
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Less than 500: 3%
Between 500 and 1000: 15%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 45%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 27%
Greater than 2000: 10%
14–17 minutes read
Perplexity response:
{think}
**Citations and Summaries**
**Ukraine Conflict Monitor (ACLED)**
*Date: 9 July 2025*
ACLED reported 1,488 political violence events in Ukraine during 28 June – 4 July 2025, a 3% decrease from the previous week. Russian forces killed at least 42 civilians, while Ukrainian shelling killed 8 in occupied regions. Long-range strikes hit western regions, including Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, and Ternopil[1].
**ACLED 21–27 June 2025 Update**
*Date: 9 July 2025*
During this period, Russian actions killed 85 civilians across 11 regions. Ukrainian shelling killed 1 civilian in Kherson. Russian advances were noted near Donetsk and Sumy[4].
Grok response:
1. **Title:** Ukraine Conflict Monitor
**Description:** ACLED’s dedicated platform for real-time data on the Ukraine war, including interactive maps and situation updates.
**Date of Publication:** July 2, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This monitor provides near real-time tracking of conflict events in Ukraine, including state-based violence deaths from the invasion onward. It highlights recent strikes and casualties, such as those in June 2025, showing a rise in attacks on civilian areas. The data underscores ongoing trends of Russian aerial bombardments contributing to both combatant and civilian deaths, with tools for assessing affected populations.
2. **Title:** Ukraine War Situation Update: 14-20 June 2025
**Description:** ACLED’s weekly report on conflict events, focusing on strikes, casualties, and regional impacts.
**Date of Publication:** July 3, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The report details multiple Russian strikes in June, including attacks on Kyiv that resulted in significant civilian and combatant deaths, with local authorities reporting explosive debris and casualties. It notes the 17 June attack as one of the deadliest in recent months, killing dozens and injuring many more. Overall, it indicates an escalation in conflict intensity, providing data that could inform July trends.
3. **Title:** Russian Losses in the War with Ukraine
**Description:** Mediazona’s ongoing count of Russian military casualties, verified through open sources.
**Date of Publication:** July 4, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This analysis documents over 118,000 verified Russian soldier deaths as of mid-2025, including those from recent operations in Ukraine. It cross-references with broader conflict data, showing how Russian losses contribute to total state-based deaths. The report highlights the cumulative impact of the war, with implications for overall combatant fatalities in July.
4. **Title:** Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict — June 2025
**Description:** United Nations in Ukraine’s report on civilian casualties from the ongoing conflict.
**Date of Publication:** July 10, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The UN documented at least 1,575 civilian casualties in June 2025, with 232 killed and 1,343 injured, marking the highest monthly total in three years. It attributes most deaths to Russian strikes on populated areas, emphasizing the rising toll on non-combatants amid intensified aerial attacks. This data serves as a benchmark for monitoring potential increases in July, including total state-based deaths when combined with combatant figures.
5. **Title:** The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card
**Description:** Analysis from Russia Matters on territorial gains, strikes, and casualties in the conflict.
**Date of Publication:** July 2, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The report notes Russian forces gaining territory and launching 477 drones and missiles in late June, leading to significant casualties. It estimates around 72 square miles of Ukrainian territory affected in the prior week, with strikes causing both civilian and combatant deaths. This update suggests a doubling of conflict intensity from May to June, potentially indicating higher death tolls in early July.
6. **Title:** Ukraine: AOAV Explosive Violence Data on Harm to Civilians
**Description:** Action on Armed Violence’s monitoring of explosive weapon impacts in Ukraine.
**Date of Publication:** July 10, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** AOAV recorded 42,690 casualties from explosive weapons up to July 10, 2025, including 38,339 civilians killed or injured. The data highlights the disproportionate effect on civilian populations due to Russian bombardments, with trends showing no significant slowdown into July. This information complements ACLED’s figures by providing a broader view of state-based deaths.
7. **Title:** Russia’s Bombing Campaign is Killing Record Numbers of Ukrainian Civilians
**Description:** Atlantic Council’s analysis of escalating Russian airstrikes and their human cost.
**Date of Publication:** July 14, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article reports June 2025 as the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians in over three years, based on UN data, with strikes causing hundreds of deaths. It discusses the strategic implications of increased bombing, linking it to total conflict fatalities including combatants. Expert opinions warn of continued escalation, which could elevate July’s death toll.
8. **Title:** Russian Casualties in Ukraine War Exceed One Million
**Description:** Ukrinform’s summary of UK intelligence estimates on Russian losses.
**Date of Publication:** July 11, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The report estimates approximately 1,022,460 Russian casualties since 2022, with 236,000 occurring in 2025 alone, based on intelligence data. It breaks down losses to include both killed and wounded combatants, providing context for the Ukrainian side’s toll. This figure helps frame the total state-based deaths in ongoing conflicts like July 2025.
9. **Title:** Latest Ukraine and Russia at War News
**Description:** Reuters’ ongoing coverage of the conflict, including daily updates on casualties.
**Date of Publication:** July 15, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** Reuters details Russia’s invasion as the deadliest European war in decades, with recent reports of missile strikes in early July causing additional civilian and combatant deaths. It cites UN and ACLED sources for casualty figures, noting a potential uptick in violence. The coverage includes expert analyses suggesting no immediate de-escalation, which could influence mid-July outcomes.
10. **Title:** Ukraine War Situation Update: 21-27 June 2025
**Description:** ACLED’s follow-up report on late June conflict events and casualties.
**Date of Publication:** July 9, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This update documents at least 24 civilian deaths from Russian strikes in the Kharkiv region during late June, alongside combatant losses. It reports on infrastructure attacks and their role in escalating total deaths. The data indicates a pattern of increasing violence that may carry into July, based on observed trends.
AskNews Deep Search Response:
Based on available data up to July 15, 2025, and conflict patterns observed in early July:
1. **Civilian Casualties** (July 1–15):
– 139 confirmed civilian deaths (UN, July 15)
– June 2025 saw 232 civilian deaths (deadliest month since 2022) in a sharp escalation trend.
2. **Combatant Losses**:
– Ukrainian military claimed 1,230 Russian soldiers killed in 24 hours on July 15 ([2]).
– Frontline intensity remained high, with 1,384 combat clashes reported July 7–13 [[4]], and continuous drone warfare creating tactical stalemates [[7][8]].
3. **Military Dynamics**:
– Russia made incremental territorial gains (e.g., Malyivka village [[2]], Zelena Dolyna [[4]]) using intensified drone strikes (728 drones in a single July 9 attack [[1]]).
– Civilian infrastructure attacks persisted, with hospitals and residential areas repeatedly targeted ([11][23]).
Anthropic response:
Based on the research provided, I’m evaluating the likely number of state-based conflict deaths (civilian and combatant) that ACLED will report for Ukraine in July 2025. As of July 15, 2025, we’re halfway through the month with some preliminary data available.
Several research assistants have provided relevant data points:
1. **Civilian Deaths**:
– ACLED reported 42-85 civilian deaths weekly in late June/early July
– UN has confirmed 139 civilian deaths in the first half of July
– June 2025 had 232 civilian deaths (reportedly the deadliest month since 2022)
2. **Combatant Deaths**:
– Ukrainian military claimed 1,230 Russian soldiers killed on July 15 alone
– 1,384 combat clashes reported July 7-13
– Continuous drone warfare is creating tactical stalemates
– There’s a documented escalation in Russian aerial bombardments
## Historical Patterns and Recent Trends
Looking at recent weeks, we observe:
– June 2025 saw 232 civilian deaths (UN data)
– First half of July already has 139 civilian deaths (UN data)
– A 10x increase in Russian missile/drone attacks compared to 2024
– Continued territorial advances by Russia in areas like Malyivka village and Zelena Dolyna
– Intensified drone strikes (including a massive 728-drone attack on July 9)
The data reveals an escalation pattern that began in June and appears to be continuing in July. The recent 3% decrease in political violence mentioned in one source is overshadowed by multiple reports of intensified drone strikes and continued heavy combat.
## Extrapolation for Full July Period
If we project the data we have for the remainder of July:
1. **For civilian deaths only**:
– With 139 civilian deaths in first half of July, we could expect 275-300 total civilian deaths by month-end if current trends continue
– This alone would not reach 500 deaths
2. **For total deaths (including combatants)**:
– Conservative estimates of combatant deaths from the research assistants suggest 1,200-1,500 for July
– Even if we discount the Ukrainian claim of 1,230 Russian soldiers killed in a single day as potential overestimation, multiple sources confirm intense fighting along frontlines
– ACLED’s methodology often results in more conservative counts than real-time claims, so the final numbers may be lower than what’s currently being reported by combatants
Model’s Answer:
## Current Situation Assessment
Based on the research assistant reports and available data, I’m analyzing the likely number of state-based conflict deaths (including both civilian and combatant fatalities) that ACLED will report for Ukraine in July 2025.
The most reliable recent data points show:
1. **Civilian Deaths**: ACLED and UN data indicate 139 civilian deaths in the first half of July 2025, with June 2025 recording 232 civilian deaths (the deadliest month since 2022).
2. **Combat Intensity**: Multiple sources confirm ongoing high-intensity conflict with:
– 1,384 combat clashes reported for July 7-13
– Continued drone warfare (728 drones in a single July 9 attack)
– Ukrainian claims of approximately 1,230 Russian soldiers killed on July 15 alone
3. **Trends**: A 3% decrease in political violence events was noted in early July compared to late June, but this minor decrease follows June’s significant escalation.
## Historical Context and Patterns
Looking at the historical data provided:
– June 2025 showed a marked increase in casualties compared to previous months
– ACLED’s data from June 28-July 4 reported 42 civilians killed by Russian forces and 8 by Ukrainian forces
– The week before (June 21-27) showed 85 civilians killed by Russian forces and 1 by Ukrainian forces
This indicates weekly civilian death rates of 50-86 in recent weeks. Extrapolating this data for all of July suggests approximately 200-340 civilian deaths for the full month. For combatant deaths, the data is less precise, but Ukrainian claims of over 1,000 Russian casualties daily, even if exaggerated, suggest significant combat fatalities continuing through July.
## Key Assumptions and Uncertainties
1. **Conflict Intensity Continuation**: I assume the conflict will maintain its current intensity through the end of July without major escalation or de-escalation. (80% confidence)
2. **Reporting Accuracy**: I assume ACLED’s methodology remains consistent with recent months, capturing a similar proportion of actual deaths. (90% confidence)
3. **Combatant Death Ratio**: I assume the ratio of combatant-to-civilian deaths remains consistent with recent months. Based on the data provided, combatant deaths significantly outnumber civilian deaths. (85% confidence)
If any of these assumptions prove incorrect, particularly regarding conflict intensity or combatant death counts, my forecast could be significantly affected.
## Statistical Analysis
Taking the current civilian death rate of approximately 139 for the first half of July and projecting it forward with similar intensity suggests approximately 280-300 civilian deaths for the full month. For combatant deaths, even using conservative estimates from the reports (assuming Ukrainian claims of Russian losses are somewhat inflated), we can reasonably expect at least 800-1,200 combatant deaths for July. This yields a total projection of approximately 1,100-1,500 state-based conflict deaths for July 2025.
## Resolution Analysis
Looking at the available data and considering the options:
1. **Less than 500**: Highly unlikely given current data showing 139 civilian deaths already by mid-July, plus substantial combatant losses.
2. **Between 500 and 1000**: Possible but unlikely given the current trajectory. This would require a significant and immediate reduction in conflict intensity.
3. **Between 1000 and 1500**: Most aligned with current data and trends. The combined civilian and combatant deaths appear to be tracking toward this range.
4. **Between 1500 and 2000**: Quite possible if combat intensity increases in the latter half of July or if combatant deaths are higher than conservative estimates.
5. **Greater than 2000**: Possible but would require significant escalation from current levels or if Ukrainian claims of Russian losses are more accurate than independent estimates suggest.
Given these considerations and accounting for the uncertainties in the data, I provide the following probability distribution:
Less than 500: 3%
Between 500 and 1,000: 15%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 45%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 27%
Greater than 2,000: 10%
Detailed forecast here —>
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Phil’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. Its Ukraine dashboard below.
Source: The VIEWS machine forecasting competition https://data.viewsforecasting.org
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