Updates from BestWorld’s AI Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman of March 7, 2025

How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle weighs as a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the
VIEWS competition.

Model value:
* Less than 1000: 10%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 20%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 25
* Between 5000 and 8000: 20%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 15%
* More than 12000: 10%

Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the key developments in Sudan:

Most significantly, Sudan has just filed a case against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing the UAE of being “complicit in genocide” by providing support to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan alleges that the UAE is breaching the Genocide Convention through its funding and support of the RSF, particularly regarding attacks on the Masalit community.

The humanitarian situation remains dire, with UNICEF reporting alarming levels of sexual violence against children. The UN agency has documented over 200 cases of rape against children since the beginning of 2024, with victims as young as one year old. These attacks are being carried out by armed men amid the ongoing conflict.

In terms of political developments, Sudan’s military leader General Abdel-Fattah Burhan has recently unveiled a roadmap for constitutional transition and civilian rule, including plans for elections.

Meanwhile, international criticism of the global response to the crisis is mounting, with Nigeria’s Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar condemning the UN’s perceived inaction on the Sudan and Sahel conflicts.

This complex crisis continues to evolve with serious humanitarian consequences, international legal challenges, and attempts at political resolution, while civilians, particularly children, bear the brunt of the violence.

Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent reports indicate that Sudan has filed a case against the United Arab Emirates at the International Court of Justice, accusing the UAE of complicity in genocide through its alleged support of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are said to be involved in attacks on the Masalit community. The humanitarian situation in the region is critical, with UNICEF raising alarms over widespread sexual violence against children, including more than 200 reported rapes since the start of 2024. Politically, Sudan’s military leader, General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, has introduced a plan for a constitutional transition towards civilian rule, while international criticism grows over the global community’s response to the crisis, particularly from Nigeria’s Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar. This situation continues to unfold with significant humanitarian, legal, and political dimensions, heavily impacting civilians, especially children.”

Fact-checking news summary: Fact-checked summary:

As it stands, projecting the specific number of conflict deaths in Sudan for the year 2025 is impossible due to the unpredictable nature of conflict dynamics. However, Sudan has faced significant conflict-related challenges in recent years, with various armed groups and political instability contributing to violence. Important factors that may influence future conflict deaths include ongoing tensions in regions such as Darfur, the involvement of external actors, and peacebuilding efforts by the international community. Additionally, historical data on conflict deaths can provide context but cannot concretely predict future events. Understanding these dynamics highlights the complexity and uncertainty in forecasting exact numbers of conflict-related fatalities in Sudan for the year 2025.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.25, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.15, “More than 12000”: 0.1] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.1, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.3, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.3, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.15, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.1, “More than 12000”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.1, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.2, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.2, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.15, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 4
# LLM responses:

Model value:
* Less than 1000: 10%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 20%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 25
* Between 5000 and 8000: 20%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 15%
* More than 12000: 10%

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:

The various AI analyses suggest that conflict deaths in Sudan are likely to continue into 2025, given the historical precedent of violence, ongoing regional conflicts such as in Darfur, and persistent political instability. Contributing factors identified include the involvement of multiple armed groups, limited success in international peacekeeping, and external actors influencing local dynamics. Despite peacebuilding efforts, the situation remains unpredictable due to the potential for either escalation or resolution. Furthermore, changes in political conditions, economic factors, or the effectiveness of interventions could either mitigate or exacerbate the situation, highlighting the inherent uncertainty in forecasting conflict outcomes.


Runtime: 221 seconds for the combination of both questions on this page.

Background on VIEWS:  Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.

Interactive VIEWS dashboard here.  

Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy and Carolyn Meinel:

(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War. Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025 

Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.

https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/

Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.

Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.

How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.  How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Model value:
* less than 172: 32%
* between 172 and 205: 37%
* between 206 and 240: 21%
* more than 240: 10%

Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:

Most Recent Developments (Last 24-48 hours):
– The Liberal Party is preparing to pick a new leader this weekend, with polling showing a tighter race than previously expected. Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney’s potential leadership is seen as a factor that could reduce Conservative Party support.
– The Supreme Court of Canada is set to release an important decision on Ontario’s third-party election advertising rules.
– A new dynamic has emerged where Donald Trump’s recent comments about potential tariffs on Canadian automobiles have given the Liberal Party an unexpected boost, shifting some focus from domestic issues like housing and food prices to international trade concerns.
Broader Context:
– The Conservative Party has been dealing with some internal challenges, including MP Jake Stewart’s announcement that he won’t seek re-election in Miramichi-Grand Lake. This comes amid concerns about electoral viability in certain regions.
– Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party recently won a significant victory, securing a third consecutive majority government, which could have implications for federal politics.
– The NDP is making efforts to break through in Atlantic Canada, though they face traditional Liberal strongholds in the region.

The overall political landscape appears to be in flux, with the Liberal Party transitioning from the Trudeau era while trying to capitalize on concerns about Trump’s trade policies, even as the Conservatives maintain strong support in many areas. The upcoming Liberal leadership decision could significantly impact the next federal election dynamics

Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent developments in Canadian politics indicate a period of significant transition and unpredictability. The Liberal Party is on the verge of selecting a new leader, with Mark Carney’s potential candidacy as a key factor that could influence party dynamics and reduce support for the Conservatives. Meanwhile, tensions over international trade have shifted focus from domestic issues, partially due to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on possible tariffs on Canadian automobiles, inadvertently boosting the Liberals. Furthermore, the Conservative Party is facing challenges, such as MP Jake Stewart not seeking re-election, which raises concerns about their electoral strength in certain areas. In Ontario, the Progressive Conservatives’ recent electoral success could shape federal strategies. Meanwhile, the NDP is attempting to expand in Atlantic Canada despite strong Liberal roots there. Overall, the political scene is fluid, with upcoming decisions and international influences poised to shape Canada’s political future.”

Fact-checking news summary: 1. **Fact:** The Liberal Party is on the verge of selecting a new leader, with Mark Carney’s potential candidacy as a key factor.
– **True/False:** True. It is consistent and possible within Canadian political dynamics, although confirmation on Carney’s candidacy may not be publicly known.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Critical. A leadership change in the Liberal Party could significantly shift voter support away from the Conservative Party, affecting seat outcomes.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Leadership changes can affect electoral outcomes significantly.

2. **Fact:** International trade tensions have shifted focus from domestic issues due to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on tariffs on Canadian automobiles.
– **True/False:** True. It is historically accurate that Trump’s trade comments would affect focus, though specifics may vary.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important. International issues can overshadow domestic ones in elections and influence voter priority.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Such shifts could impact voter behavior and party campaigns, influencing seat count.

3. **Fact:** The Conservative Party is facing challenges, such as MP Jake Stewart not seeking re-election, raising concerns about their electoral strength in certain areas.
– **True/False:** True, assuming the information is up-to-date with Canadian MP decisions.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important. Leadership and participation issues can affect the party’s performance in elections.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Loss of incumbents or strong candidates can weaken party strength locally.

4. **Fact:** The Progressive Conservatives’ recent electoral success in Ontario could shape federal strategies.
– **True/False:** True. Provincial successes often influence national party strategies.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important. Strategies developed from provincial success can impact federal seat wins.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Successful provincial track records can translate into federal gains.

5. **Fact:** The NDP is attempting to expand in Atlantic Canada despite strong Liberal roots there.
– **True/False:** True. Parties often attempt to expand in regions dominated by another party.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Lesser. While regional strategies can impact overall seat numbers, the NDP’s actions here may be less directly related to Conservative seat totals.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Regional expansions can impact party dynamics and seat allocations.

In general, the summary indicates a period of significant volatility and potential change in voter preferences, which are crucial in predicting potential outcomes in seat counts.

Fact-checked summary:
In predicting the number of seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, several dynamics are at play that could impact the outcome. The potential leadership change within the Liberal Party, particularly involving Mark Carney, could significantly shift voter support, potentially affecting the Conservative seat count as leadership changes can alter electoral outcomes. Additionally, international trade tensions, highlighted by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on tariffs, are relevant as they might shift voter focus from domestic issues, influencing electoral campaigns and priorities. Within the Conservative Party, challenges such as MP Jake Stewart’s decision not to seek re-election could weaken the party’s electoral strength locally. Provincial successes of the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario might shape federal strategies, impacting seat wins at the national level due to the influence of successful provincial track records. All these factors indicate a period of potential volatility and shifts in voter preferences, which could crucially affect seat outcomes for the Conservative Party.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.4, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.09] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3

Model value:
* less than 172: 32%
* between 172 and 205: 37%
* between 206 and 240: 21%
* more than 240: 10%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The various analyses suggest that the Conservative Party’s performance in upcoming federal elections will be shaped by several factors. Historical data indicates their typical seat range to be between approximately 95 to 200 seats, with gains being likely but not massive, as dramatic shifts are rare in Canadian politics. A potential leadership change in the Liberal Party, particularly with Mark Carney as a candidate, could reduce the Conservatives’ prospects. Conversely, any failure of this leadership change could benefit Conservatives. Economic issues linked to trade tensions can play to the Conservatives’ strengths, but unforeseen events could alter public opinion drastically. While the success of the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario may positively influence federal strategies, local issues and decisions, like MP Jake Stewart’s retirement, represent potential weaknesses. Ultimately, while there are factors in favor of the Conservatives, unpredictability remains due to possible shifts in voter preferences, international events, and any errors in polling data.a.

Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports 

Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).