How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of May 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
* Less than 100: 50%
* Between 100 and 250: 22%
* Between 250 and 500: 17%
* Between 500 and 1000: 8%
* Greater than 1000: 3%
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: ACLED conflict deaths Syria May 2025
News from various sources:
The content mentions that data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) indicates a significant increase in global conflicts, with at least 233,000 people estimated to have been killed in 2024. This rise marks a doubling in conflict levels over the past five years, affecting regions such as Ukraine, Gaza, and Myanmar. However, there is no specific information about Syria or conflict-related deaths in May 2025 within the extracted content.
The included text contains various links and sections from a website, but these are not relevant to the topic at hand. It primarily serves as a frame for the news article provided by The Washington Post, which focuses on the broader context of global conflict as analyzed by ACLED.
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts mentioned in the summary, along with their evaluations:
1. **Fact:** Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) indicates a significant increase in global conflicts, with at least 233,000 people estimated to have been killed in 2024.
– **Correctness:** True (assuming this is accurate data from ACLED as reported).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False (this fact does not provide information about Syria in May 2025).
2. **Fact:** The rise in conflict levels marks a doubling over the past five years.
– **Correctness:** True (assuming this is correctly reported data).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False (this fact is related to global patterns, not Syria in May 2025).
3. **Fact:** Regions such as Ukraine, Gaza, and Myanmar are affected by the increase in conflicts.
– **Correctness:** True (assuming the report correctly identifies these regions as affected).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False (this does not provide information about Syria).
4. **Fact:** There is no specific information about Syria or conflict-related deaths in May 2025 within the extracted content.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Critical (this directly addresses the original question).
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
5. **Fact:** The content serves as a frame for the news article from The Washington Post, focusing on the broader context of global conflict as analyzed by ACLED.
– **Correctness:** True (assuming this accurately describes the content’s purpose).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Unimportant.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False (this does not relate to the specific query about Syria in May 2025).
Overall, the summary provides a general context of increased global conflicts but lacks specific information needed to determine the number of state-actor conflict deaths in Syria in May 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
The fact-checking summary reveals that there is no specific information available about the number of state-actor conflict deaths in Syria for May 2025. This absence of data is critically important because it directly addresses and identifies the gap in information relating to the original question. Therefore, while the general context of increased global conflicts is mentioned, it does not contribute directly to the query regarding Syria’s situation in that specific time frame.
OpenAI gives a base rate of percentage chance of death count forecast (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI failed to return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Historical monthly conflict deaths in Syria over past 5 years, 0.25
Recent escalation trends in local conflicts, 0.3
Involvement of international actors in local conflicts, 0.25
UN or NGO data availability on recent conflict deaths, 0.2
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Base rate is initially considered from historical monthly conflict death figures averaging around 200 in recent months. Considering recent news suggests a lack of detailed information on May 2025, retaining a cautious perspective. The absence of additional state actor activities or reported large-scale engagements contributes a prior probability favoring lower-to-mid-range counts.
Bayesian base rate: 18%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: reference_class
Expected time (days) until question close: 3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers historical monthly conflict data in Syria, which has fluctuated between lower and moderately high figures depending on the regional security environment and international involvement. A general overview suggests a lower likelihood for exceeding high death tolls, as recent months did not show significant increases.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
More specific intelligence reports on May 2025 operations or detailed statistics from on-ground agencies could refine predictions. Access to up-to-date conflict assessments from UN missions or reputable NGOs would reduce uncertainty.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential for unreported or underestimated conflicts and a sudden escalation due to unforeseen political or military actions could elevate the forecasting range. External actors might increase involvement, altering dynamics swiftly.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– State-actor conflict in Syria leading to a significant number of deaths in May 2025. (Likely)
– Escalation of military operations in key hotspot regions such as Idlib or Aleppo. (Moderately likely)
– Increased involvement of external state actors supporting different factions. (Possible)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.45, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.3, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.15, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.07, “Greater than 1000”: 0.03] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.7, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.2, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.07, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.02, “Greater than 1000”: 0.01] – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.05, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.1, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.25, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.4, “Greater than 1000”: 0.2] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
MAPD: Avg: 0.21333333333333, Max: 0.43333333333333
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
* Less than 100: 50%
* Between 100 and 250: 22%
* Between 250 and 500: 17%
* Between 500 and 1000: 8%
* Greater than 1000: 3%
The reasoning behind the predictions suggests that the conflict in Syria remains at a lower intensity compared to earlier years, supported by stable frontlines since 2020 and localized rather than large-scale operations. Historical data from ACLED indicates a stable range of monthly state-actor deaths from 50-200, with no major escalations reported for May 2025. The absence of significant recent intensifications and a lack of new external state actor involvement further supports this outlook. However, underlying uncertainties remain due to potential unreported military operations, delayed data reporting, and possible sudden geopolitical developments that could alter the predicted stability of conflict death rates.
Runtime: 88 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Syria in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment with VIEWS.
