The International Longshoremen’s Association returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, unchanged so far this week.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the US dockworkers situation:
Most recently (January 2025), a major potential crisis was averted when the union representing approximately 45,000 dockworkers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts reached a tentative agreement with port employers. The deal prevented what would have been a significant strike that could have affected major ports from Boston to Houston. The key issue in the negotiations was related to automation at the ports, with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strongly opposing further automation of port operations.
The agreement represents a six-year contract and resolves a contentious dispute between the dockworkers’ union and their employers regarding how certain technology can be implemented at the ports. These ports handle roughly half of all U.S. maritime trade, making the resolution particularly significant for the national economy.
In a separate but related development, dockworkers at the Port of Montreal have recently gone on strike, with the Canadian federal government considering back-to-work legislation. The union representatives in Montreal have stated that this strike was “avoidable,” suggesting ongoing tensions between workers and management in the maritime shipping industry across North America.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“In January 2025, a significant labor dispute was averted when the union representing around 45,000 dockworkers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts reached a tentative six-year agreement with port employers, addressing concerns over port automation. This prevented a potential strike that could have disrupted major ports from Boston to Houston, crucial for handling approximately half of U.S. maritime trade. Meanwhile, dockworkers at the Port of Montreal have gone on strike, prompting the Canadian federal government to consider back-to-work legislation, highlighting ongoing labor tensions in the North American maritime industry. Caution is advised as the newsfeed may contain unverified information and possible propaganda.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Certainly! Here is a list of specific facts mentioned in the summary, along with their evaluation regarding correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact:** In January 2025, the union representing around 45,000 dockworkers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts reached a tentative six-year agreement with port employers.
– **Correct (True/False):** Internally consistent; assume externally correct unless there’s evidence to the contrary. (True)
– **Importance:** Important to the resolution of the question, as the agreement indicates labor peace which can reduce strike probability.
– **Relevance:** True. This fact is directly relevant to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
2. **Fact:** The agreement addressed concerns over port automation.
– **Correct (True/False):** Internally consistent; assume externally correct unless there’s evidence to the contrary. (True)
– **Importance:** Important, since addressing concerns potentially removes one of the critical triggers for a strike.
– **Relevance:** True. Relevant as it affects the likelihood of strike actions.
3. **Fact:** The agreement prevented a potential strike that could have disrupted major ports from Boston to Houston.
– **Correct (True/False):** Internally consistent; assumption based on typical outcomes of agreement events. (True)
– **Importance:** Critical, as it pertains directly to the prevention of strikes.
– **Relevance:** True. Directly related to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
4. **Fact:** These ports are crucial for handling approximately half of U.S. maritime trade.
– **Correct (True/False):** Assumed correct based on typical trade handling by these ports. (True)
– **Importance:** Lesser importance to the resolution; contextual significance.
– **Relevance:** False. Not directly relevant to the probability of a strike itself.
5. **Fact:** Meanwhile, dockworkers at the Port of Montreal have gone on strike.
– **Correct (True/False):** Assume correct based on given information. (True)
– **Importance:** Unimportant to the resolution of the question about U.S. port strikes.
– **Relevance:** False. Not directly relevant to the U.S. strike probability.
6. **Fact:** This strike prompted the Canadian federal government to consider back-to-work legislation.
– **Correct (True/False):** Assume correct based on given information. (True)
– **Importance:** Unimportant to the resolution of the question about U.S. port strikes.
– **Relevance:** False. Not directly relevant to the U.S. strike probability.
7. **Fact:** There are ongoing labor tensions in the North American maritime industry.
– **Correct (True/False):** General condition believed to be correct given the strike activity. (True)
– **Importance:** Lesser importance, contextually significant.
– **Relevance:** False. This is a background condition rather than a direct influencer of the specific strike probability for U.S. dockworkers.
8. **Fact:** Caution is advised as the newsfeed may contain unverified information and possible propaganda.
– **Correct (True/False):** True; caution is a valid disclaimer.
– **Importance:** Unimportant for the specific analysis but generally relevant for assessing sources.
– **Relevance:** False. Does not influence the analysis but underlines the reliability of information.
In summary, the resolution of a U.S. strike is mainly impacted by the facts regarding the tentative agreement and its topics such as automation, as these factors directly reduce the likelihood of a strike.
Fact-checked summary:
In January 2025, a tentative six-year agreement was reached between the union representing approximately 45,000 dockworkers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts and port employers. This agreement addressed concerns over port automation, which is significant because it potentially removes a key trigger for strike actions. As a result of this agreement, a potential strike that could have disrupted major ports from Boston to Houston was averted, directly reducing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.1. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is calculated based on the historical frequency of strikes among dockworkers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts in similar situations, where tentative agreements have been reached but not yet ratified. Historically, most agreements are ratified, and strikes are less frequent when a deal is on the table. Considering the importance of the recent agreement, particularly its address of automation concerns which were a major sticking point, the base rate of strikes occurring in such contexts tends to be low, around 10% or less. This rate reflects the assumption that union ratification is probable and that external factors that could lead to a strike are not prevalent.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
If union members reject the tentative agreement in upcoming votes, or if new significant issues emerge that are not addressed by the current agreement, the probability of a strike would increase significantly. Furthermore, any sudden changes in economic conditions or geopolitical issues could also increase the likelihood of a disruption. The current international economic climate and ongoing local and global labor movement themes should be monitored as they could diverge the outcome from the base rate.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Implementation of the tentative agreement without any issues. Very likely – Union members ratify the agreement. Likely – No further significant disputes arise between the union and port employers. Likely
– No external disruptions (e.g., geopolitical events, major economic downturns) lead to a strike. Moderate
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.03
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025 is considered low due to a recently reached tentative six-year agreement, addressing major concerns such as automation and salary increases, which historically reduces the likelihood of strikes. The historical strike base rate in similar situations is around 10%, and union and port authority negotiations also signal a willingness to resolve issues without striking. However, risks remain, including potential rejection of the agreement by union members, the emergence of new disputes, and external factors such as economic or geopolitical disruptions. These uncertainties suggest the probability of a strike is slightly above the base rate, but still relatively low given the current context.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Today, Feb. 5, 2025:
* less than 172: 25%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 20%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Current Political Landscape:
– A federal election must be held by October 20, 2024, though it could happen sooner
– The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is currently leading in polls by a significant margin
– Conservative fundraising in 2024 has nearly doubled the combined total of the Liberal and NDP parties
– The Liberal Party has held power for nine years under Justin Trudeau
Key Issues and Factors:
– Donald Trump and U.S.-Canada relations remain a significant factor, though recent tariff threats have been temporarily suspended
– The carbon tax and environmental policy continue to be major campaign issues, though perhaps less central than initially expected
– Economic concerns are prominent, with equity investors showing optimism about a potential Conservative victory
– Regional dynamics vary significantly – for example, the Liberal Party hasn’t won a seat in Saskatchewan since 2015, and that trend is unlikely to change
Recent Developments:
– There’s speculation about potential Liberal Party leadership changes, though experts suggest this may have limited impact in certain regions
– Political financing and campaign activities are under scrutiny, as evidenced by recent fines levied against political groups
– The Conservative Party’s strong fundraising position suggests they have significant resources for the upcoming campaign.
The election appears to be shaping up as a potential turning point in Canadian politics, with economic issues, environmental policy, and U.S. relations as key factors influencing voter decisions.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The summary of the newsfeed regarding Canada’s upcoming election highlights the current political landscape where the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is leading significantly in polls and has raised substantial funds compared to the Liberal and NDP parties. The election must be held by October 20, 2024, but could occur sooner. Key issues include U.S.-Canada relations, economic concerns, and environmental policy, with recent tariffs threats by the U.S. being temporarily suspended. Notably, the Liberal Party, in power for nine years under Justin Trudeau, faces challenges, especially with regional dynamics and speculation about potential leadership changes. Political financing is under scrutiny following recent fines against groups, while the Conservatives’ fundraising advantages indicate strong campaign resources. Overall, the election could represent a crucial turning point in Canadian politics, driven by economic conditions, environmental debates, and international relations. Note that this information may contain unsubstantiated rumors and propaganda, requiring cautious interpretation.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with an analysis of their correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact:** The Conservative Party is led by Pierre Poilievre.
– **Correctness:** True (as of October 2023, Pierre Poilievre is the leader of the Conservative Party).
– **Importance:** Important (relevant to leadership and election strategy).
– **Relevance:** True (leadership can impact election outcomes).
2. **Fact:** The Conservative Party is leading significantly in polls.
– **Correctness:** True/False (this requires up-to-date polling data to verify).
– **Importance:** Important (poll standings are a key indicator of potential election outcomes).
– **Relevance:** True (polls are relevant to predicting election results).
3. **Fact:** The Conservative Party has raised substantial funds compared to the Liberal and NDP parties.
– **Correctness:** True/False (this requires verification from financial reports).
– **Importance:** Important (fundraising impacts the ability to run effective campaigns).
– **Relevance:** True (financial resources are relevant to campaign strength).
4. **Fact:** The election must be held by October 20, 2024, but could occur sooner.
– **Correctness:** True (Canada’s next federal election is due by this date, though it could be called earlier).
– **Importance:** Important (the timing of the election affects strategy and preparation).
– **Relevance:** True (knowing the election timeline is crucial for planning).
5. **Fact:** Key issues include U.S.-Canada relations, economic concerns, and environmental policy.
– **Correctness:** True (these are indeed key issues in Canadian politics).
– **Importance:** Important (issues affect voter preferences and party platforms).
– **Relevance:** True (issues influence election dynamics and outcomes).
6. **Fact:** Recent tariffs threats by the U.S. are temporarily suspended.
– **Correctness:** True/False (needs confirmation through current international trade reports).
– **Importance:** Lesser Importance (might influence some voters concerned about trade).
– **Relevance:** True (international relations can affect economic conditions).
7. **Fact:** The Liberal Party has been in power for nine years under Justin Trudeau.
– **Correctness:** True (the Liberal Party, led by Trudeau, has been in power since 2015).
– **Importance:** Important (incumbency can impact voter sentiment).
– **Relevance:** True (the time in power affects evaluations of party performance).
8. **Fact:** The Liberal Party faces challenges with regional dynamics and potential leadership changes.
– **Correctness:** True/False (requires political analysis to verify speculation about leadership changes).
– **Importance:** Important (leadership and regional support affect electability).
– **Relevance:** True (internal party dynamics impact electoral chances).
9. **Fact:** Political financing is under scrutiny following recent fines against groups.
– **Correctness:** True/False (requires verification of recent fines and scrutiny levels).
– **Importance:** Lesser Importance (affects public perception but less direct on seat counts).
– **Relevance:** True (financing issues can affect campaign effectiveness).
10. **Fact:** The Conservatives’ fundraising advantages indicate strong campaign resources.
– **Correctness:** True/False (requires comparative fundraising data analysis).
– **Importance:** Important (fundraising influences campaign strategy and reach).
– **Relevance:** True (resource availability is relevant to campaign success).
11. **Fact:** The election could represent a crucial turning point in Canadian politics.
– **Correctness:** True/False (subjective; can be anticipated based on political climate).
– **Importance:** Critical (a turning point implies significant changes in governance).
– **Relevance:** True (could affect the number of seats won if it results in a shift in governance).
Overall, while these facts need careful verification and consideration in the context of objective data, they provide insight into potential influences on the Conservative Party’s seat count in the election.
Fact-checked summary:
The Conservative Party is currently led by Pierre Poilievre, whose leadership is important as it can impact the party’s election strategy and outcomes. Canada’s next federal election must be held by October 20, 2024, though it could occur sooner, which is important for election strategy and preparation. Key issues such as U.S.-Canada relations, economic concerns, and environmental policy are central to Canadian politics and affect voter preferences, influencing election dynamics and outcomes. The Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, has been in power since 2015, and this incumbency can impact voter sentiment and evaluations of party performance. Accurate prediction of the exact number of seats the Conservative Party will win is uncertain and would depend on various factors, including these political dynamics and voter preferences leading up to the election.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.25
* between 172 and 205: 0.45
* between 206 and 240: 0.2
* more than 240: 0.1
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction regarding the Conservative Party’s potential performance in the next Canadian federal election heavily relies on current polling under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, alongside voter dissatisfaction with the Liberal government, especially on economic issues. Key contributing factors include historical patterns of majority governments in Canada, Pierre Poilievre’s impactful strategies, and regional support, particularly in Ontario and the Western provinces. However, several uncertainties, such as fluctuating polling data, potential shifts in voter sentiment due to crises or political events, and the influence of strategic voting and third parties, could lead to different outcomes. The Conservatives are positioned competitively within the 172–205 seat range, though external developments could significantly alter this prediction.
Runtime for both questions combined: 146 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
