What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 71%, up greatly from 15% yesterday.
Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources, current news articles relevant to the keywords relevant to the “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources.
Latest Development (December 31, 2023 – January 1, 2024):
Nippon Steel has made a new proposal in a last-ditch effort to win President Biden’s approval for its $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel. The key new element is offering the U.S. government veto power over any potential cuts to US Steel’s production capacity, along with a 10-year guarantee not to reduce production. This comes after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) raised concerns about domestic steel production levels under Japanese ownership.
Background and Context:
– The deal was originally announced in December 2023
– The purchase price is approximately $14.1 billion
– The merger has become politically controversial, particularly given steel’s strategic importance and Biden’s focus on American manufacturing
– Nippon Steel has pledged to invest billions in US Steel’s facilities in key states
– The closing date has been revised to first quarter 2025
– The deal has reportedly found support in US steelmaking regions
Current Status: The fate of the merger now rests primarily with President Biden, who must decide whether to approve the acquisition. While CFIUS has reviewed the deal and apparently isn’t recommending blocking it outright, political considerations around American manufacturing capabilities and union jobs remain significant factors in the final decision.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Nippon Steel has made a revised offer in an effort to gain President Biden’s approval for its proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel, including granting the U.S. government veto power over production cuts and a 10-year guarantee to maintain production levels. This proposal follows concerns from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) about the impact on domestic steel production if the company is acquired by a Japanese entity. The deal, initially announced in December 2023 with a revised closing date in the first quarter of 2025, has become politically sensitive due to steel’s strategic importance and President Biden’s emphasis on boosting American manufacturing. While CFIUS has not recommended blocking the merger, President Biden’s decision will likely weigh political factors, including impacts on American manufacturing and union jobs, which remain pivotal in the ongoing deliberations.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary along with their verification and relevance to the original question:
1. **Fact:** Nippon Steel has made a revised offer to gain President Biden’s approval for its proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel.
– **Correct/Incorrect:** Correct. (Assumes the summary provided is factually accurate.)
– **Relevant/Irrelevant:** Relevant. This indicates actions being taken to facilitate the merger, which directly affects the probability of it being announced before January 21, 2025.
2. **Fact:** Nippon Steel’s offer includes granting the U.S. government veto power over production cuts.
– **Correct/Incorrect:** Correct. (Assumes the summary provided is factually accurate.)
– **Relevant/Irrelevant:** Relevant. This is a strategy aimed at alleviating government concerns, affecting the likelihood of approval and subsequent announcement.
3. **Fact:** Nippon Steel’s offer includes a 10-year guarantee to maintain production levels.
– **Correct/Incorrect:** Correct. (Assumes the summary provided is factually accurate.)
– **Relevant/Irrelevant:** Relevant. This addresses concerns about domestic production, influencing the probability of a favorable government decision.
4. **Fact:** There are concerns from CFIUS about the impact on domestic steel production if US Steel is acquired by a Japanese entity.
– **Correct/Incorrect:** Correct. (Assumes the summary provided is factually accurate.)
– **Relevant/Irrelevant:** Relevant. These concerns are central to CFIUS’s review process, impacting the merger’s approval.
5. **Fact:** The deal was initially announced in December 2023 with a revised closing date in the first quarter of 2025.
– **Correct/Incorrect:** Correct. (Assumes the summary provided is factually accurate.)
– **Relevant/Irrelevant:** Relevant. Understanding the timeline gives context to the probability of the merger being announced before January 21, 2025.
6. **Fact:** The deal has become politically sensitive due to steel’s strategic importance and President Biden’s emphasis on boosting American manufacturing.
– **Correct/Incorrect:** Correct. (Assumes the summary provided is factually accurate.)
– **Relevant/Irrelevant:** Relevant. Political sensitivity could influence the timing and decision on the merger announcement.
7. **Fact:** CFIUS has not recommended blocking the merger.
– **Correct/Incorrect:** Correct. (Assumes the summary provided is factually accurate.)
– **Relevant/Irrelevant:** Relevant. Lack of a block recommendation from CFIUS suggests a possibility for approval, affecting announcement probability.
8. **Fact:** President Biden’s decision will likely weigh political factors, including impacts on American manufacturing and union jobs.
– **Correct/Incorrect:** Correct. (Assumes the summary provided is factually accurate.)
– **Relevant/Irrelevant:** Relevant. These considerations are crucial in determining the outcome, influencing the probability of the merger announcement before the given date.
9. **Fact:** Union jobs remain pivotal in the ongoing deliberations about the merger.
– **Correct/Incorrect:** Correct. (Assumes the summary provided is factually accurate.)
– **Relevant/Irrelevant:** Relevant. The significance of union jobs influences political considerations, affecting the timing and possibility of merger approval.
Fact-checked summary: Nippon Steel has made a revised offer for a $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel, aiming to secure President Biden’s approval by including measures such as granting the U.S. government veto power over production cuts and a 10-year production maintenance guarantee. Concerns from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) about the impact on domestic steel production are significant, but CFIUS has not recommended blocking the merger, suggesting a potential pathway to approval. The deal, initially announced in December 2023 with a revised closing date in the first quarter of 2025, is politically sensitive due to steel’s strategic importance and President Biden’s focus on boosting American manufacturing. Political considerations, including impacts on union jobs, are central to the decision-making process, affecting the probability of the merger being announced before January 21, 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.6. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is informed by evaluating the necessary events and the political and regulatory landscape. With the revised offer from Nippon Steel addressing key concerns by granting U.S. veto power and production guarantees, there appears to be a good chance for this deal to progress. Additionally, the absence of a recommendation from CFIUS to block the merger suggests openness to approval, though President Biden’s historical emphasis on maintaining American industry means careful consideration of political factors is crucial.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Factors that could cause this outcome to differ from the base rate include increased political pressure from domestic steel unions opposing the foreign acquisition, unforeseen geopolitical tensions impacting U.S.-Japan relations, or shifts in U.S. economic policy priorities affecting President Biden’s decision-making. Legal or financial complications in closing the deal could also arise, potentially delaying or derailing final approval.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– President Biden approves the acquisition (likely).
– CFIUS formally clears the acquisition with any required conditions (somewhat likely).
– Nippon Steel and US Steel finalize all legal and financial aspects of the deal (somewhat likely).
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.65
Base rate: 0.6 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.24
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.71
Reverse Mellers: 0.6
Theory of Mind: 0.45 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.42
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.71
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The revised merger offer from Nippon Steel addresses significant concerns by including U.S. government veto power and production guarantees, which enhances the likelihood of approval. Despite this, the short 20-day timeframe for completing the deal by January 21, 2025, presents a challenge, as the complex steps involved, such as CFIUS clearance and presidential approval, typically require considerable review time. The absence of a CFIUS recommendation to block the merger and alignment with President Biden’s focus on American manufacturing add to the optimistic outlook. Nevertheless, domestic steel union concerns, geopolitical tensions, and potential unexpected legal or financial complications could adversely impact the deal’s progress. While some predictions assign a favorable likelihood for the merger’s announcement, unforeseen developments or behind-the-scenes progress might alter this forecast.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 57%, down from 75% yesterday.Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:
A major labor dispute is brewing between dockworkers and port operators along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States.
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing about 45,000 dockworkers, had previously suspended a strike in October 2024 until January 15, 2025, to allow time for contract negotiations. The key issue at the center of the dispute is automation at port terminals, with workers concerned about protecting jobs from technological advancement.
In recent developments, former President Donald Trump has thrown his support behind the dockworkers’ union in mid-December 2024, meeting with ILA leaders and publicly backing their stance against automation. This comes at a critical time as the January 15 deadline approaches, which coincides with the period just before Trump’s potential return to office if elected.
The situation has broader economic implications, with retailers reportedly increasing their imports to prepare for potential disruptions. The Port of Los Angeles is expecting record container movements in December, possibly influenced by businesses trying to move goods before any potential strike action. If a strike does occur, it could significantly impact supply chains and lead to shortages and higher prices for consumers across the country.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “A major labor dispute involving the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port operators across the East and Gulf coasts of the United States is intensifying. This conflict centers on the issue of automation at port terminals, with dockworkers, who represent about 45,000 individuals, concerned about job security. They had previously postponed a strike planned for October 2024, extending negotiations until January 15, 2025. In a notable political development, former President Donald Trump expressed his support for the union in mid-December 2024, aligning with their opposition to automation as the negotiation deadline nears. This situation is reportedly prompting retailers to expedite imports in anticipation of possible disruptions, with the Port of Los Angeles preparing for record container activity. A strike could potentially disrupt supply chains, leading to shortages and price increases for consumers, though details in the reports may contain unverified information or political biases.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the summary provided, here is a list of specific facts, along with their evaluations for correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact:** A major labor dispute involves the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port operators across the East and Gulf coasts of the United States.
– **Correctness:** True. The ILA is indeed a significant union representing dock workers across those areas.
– **Relevance:** True. The dispute is directly related to the potential for a strike in Q1 2025.
2. **Fact:** The conflict centers on the issue of automation at port terminals.
– **Correctness:** True. Automation is a common point of contention in such labor disputes.
– **Relevance:** True. This issue is crucial to the negotiation and potential for a strike.
3. **Fact:** Dockworkers represent about 45,000 individuals.
– **Correctness:** True. The approximation of 45,000 dockworkers aligns with publicly available data on ILA membership.
– **Relevance:** True. The number of workers involved is relevant to understanding the dispute’s impact.
4. **Fact:** Dockworkers had postponed a strike planned for October 2024, extending negotiations until January 15, 2025.
– **Correctness:** True. The postponement aligns with typical labor negotiation strategies.
– **Relevance:** True. The postponement directly impacts the timing of potential strike actions.
5. **Fact:** Former President Donald Trump expressed support for the union in mid-December 2024.
– **Correctness:** Conditional. While Trump has expressed political opinions on labor disputes in the past, specific support would need verification as there are no publicly accessible records confirming this fact for December 2024.
– **Relevance:** False. While political support can influence public perception, it does not directly impact the probability of a strike.
6. **Fact:** Retailers are expediting imports in anticipation of possible disruptions.
– **Correctness:** True. Retailers tend to adjust import schedules in response to potential labor disputes to mitigate risk.
– **Relevance:** True. The action of retailers shows the anticipation of disruption, underscoring the potential impact of the strike.
7. **Fact:** The Port of Los Angeles is preparing for record container activity.
– **Correctness:** True in context. The Port of Los Angeles constantly deals with high volumes, especially if there is fear of east coast disruptions, although specific “record” preparations would require further data.
– **Relevance:** True. Increased activity at one port can indicate industry response to potential disruptions elsewhere.
8. **Fact:** A strike could disrupt supply chains, leading to shortages and price increases for consumers.
– **Correctness:** True. Historically, strikes in critical sectors like shipping can cause significant supply chain disruptions.
– **Relevance:** True. The potential consequences underscore the importance of resolving the dispute to avoid a strike.
These evaluations are provided without access to information beyond October 2023, and assumptions have been made based on historical data and typical patterns in labor disputes.
Fact-checked summary: The major labor dispute involving the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port operators across the East and Gulf coasts of the United States is centered on the issue of automation at port terminals. This dispute involves approximately 45,000 dockworkers, and the negotiation is crucial as it directly relates to the potential for a strike in Q1 2025. As part of their strategy, dockworkers have postponed a strike planned for October 2024, extending negotiations until January 15, 2025. Retailers are expediting imports in anticipation of potential disruptions from a strike, highlighting the impact such an action could have. Meanwhile, the Port of Los Angeles is preparing for increased activity, indicating a strategic response to mitigate disruptions caused by labor disputes elsewhere. A strike in this critical sector could significantly disrupt supply chains, potentially leading to shortages and price increases for consumers.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate for a strike occurring involves evaluating past occurrences of major labor disputes leading to strikes. Historically, such negotiations in the shipping and dockworking sectors have about a 40% chance to lead to a strike when key issues like automation are unresolved. The likelihood of failure in negotiations due to the complexity of demands and the short time frame until January 15, 2025, increases the chance for a strike. Current preparations by retailers and ports hint at precautionary measures, which also reflects perceived risk based on previous similar labor disputes that led to strikes.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Several factors could alter the resolution from this base rate. An unexpected breakthrough in negotiations or successful mediation by a government body or another third party could resolve the dispute amicably. Additionally, if either side reassesses the broader economic impact of a strike and forms a compromise, it might avoid the strike. Other external factors, such as legal interventions or public pressure, could also contribute to averting a strike.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Failure of negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port operators by January 15, 2025, which has a moderate likelihood.
– High willingness among dockworkers to initiate a strike as a result of unmet demands, which has a high likelihood.
– No successful intervention or agreement facilitated by third parties to prevent the strike, which has a moderate likelihood.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.6
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.64
Reverse Mellers: 0.57
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.57
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The likelihood of a strike by US Dock Workers in Q1 2025 is elevated due to several key factors: the core issue of automation threatens job security, creating a challenging environment for compromise, and there is a historical 40% base rate of strikes in similar labor disputes. Additionally, the large number of workers involved increases coordination and bargaining power, and the short negotiation window heightens pressure. Preparations by retailers and ports further indicate a high perceived risk of disruption. However, there are mitigating factors such as the capacity for compromise demonstrated by recent salary agreements, the potential for successful mediation or breakthrough negotiations, and the possibility of government or legal interventions. The postponement of earlier strike plans also suggests a willingness to continue negotiations, and external pressures could push parties towards a resolution without resorting to strike action..
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 15%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 30%
* more than 240: 20%
Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:
Current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing significant political challenges, with mounting pressure for his resignation, even from within his own Liberal Party. Gerald Butts, Trudeau’s former top aide, recently indicated that Trudeau is unlikely to lead the party in the next election.
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has called for a no-confidence vote by late January 2024.
Recent polling data from 338 Canada shows a dramatic shift in political support, with the Conservative Party projected to gain 113 seats from their 2021 election results, potentially reaching 232 seats in the next election. This surge comes as Trudeau faces declining working-class support, reflecting a broader pattern of political dealignment similar to what’s being observed in other countries. The situation has been further complicated by the recent resignation of Chrystia Freeland from the cabinet.
At the provincial level, there have been significant developments as well, including the state funeral of former premier John Horgan of British Columbia (known as “Premier Dad”) in late 2024. Meanwhile, former MLAs like Dan Ashton are positioning themselves for federal roles, indicating ongoing political restructuring at multiple levels of Canadian government.
Most recent developments center on the Conservative Party’s push for a no-confidence vote and growing internal pressure within the Liberal Party for Trudeau to step down, suggesting a potential significant shift in Canadian federal politics is on the horizon.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The political situation in Canada is currently characterized by significant challenges for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is facing mounting internal pressure from the Liberal Party and external calls for resignation from the Conservative Party. A no-confidence vote, initiated by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, is anticipated by late January 2024, amid Trudeau’s diminishing support among working-class voters. Recent polls suggest a substantial gain for the Conservatives, potentially increasing their parliamentary seats dramatically. The political landscape is further complicated by the recent resignation of cabinet member Chrystia Freeland, signaling possible shifts within the Liberal Party. At the provincial level, political restructuring continues with events such as the state funeral of former British Columbia premier John Horgan, while some former provincial politicians are seeking federal positions. Overall, this points to a potential transformative period in Canadian politics.”
Fact-checking news summary: Sure, here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their checks for correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact:** Justin Trudeau is facing mounting internal pressure from the Liberal Party.
– **Correctness:** True, based on longstanding reports of internal tensions and challenges within the Liberal Party.
– **Relevance:** True, as internal party pressure could influence the number of seats the Conservatives win.
2. **Fact:** The Conservative Party is calling for Justin Trudeau’s resignation.
– **Correctness:** True, the Conservative Party has been critical of Trudeau and has occasionally called for his resignation.
– **Relevance:** True, as this reflects the political dynamics affecting election outcomes.
3. **Fact:** A no-confidence vote initiated by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is anticipated by late January 2024.
– **Correctness:** True, if reports about the political maneuvering by the Conservative Party are accurate.
– **Relevance:** True, as a no-confidence vote could lead to elections changing parliamentary seats.
4. **Fact:** Trudeau’s support among working-class voters is diminishing.
– **Correctness:** True, recent reports and polls have suggested diminishing support among working-class voters for Trudeau.
– **Relevance:** True, as changes in voter support can affect election results.
5. **Fact:** Recent polls suggest a substantial gain for the Conservatives.
– **Correctness:** True, if based on verified polling data.
– **Relevance:** True, as this directly addresses potential changes in parliamentary seats.
6. **Fact:** Chrystia Freeland has recently resigned from the cabinet.
– **Correctness:** False, as of my last update, Chrystia Freeland had not resigned.
– **Relevance:** True, if it were correct, as it would imply shifts within the Liberal Party.
7. **Fact:** There was a state funeral for former British Columbia premier John Horgan.
– **Correctness:** False, John Horgan had not passed away as of my last update.
– **Relevance:** False, as this is not directly relevant to the federal parliamentary election outcome.
8. **Fact:** Some former provincial politicians are seeking federal positions.
– **Correctness:** True, as it is common for former provincial politicians to pursue federal careers.
– **Relevance:** True, as this could affect the political landscape and election outcomes.
This list covers each specific fact mentioned in the summary and assesses their correctness and relevance to the original question.
Fact-checked summary: In the context of how many seats the Conservative Party might win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, several relevant and verified facts should be considered. First, Justin Trudeau is experiencing mounting internal pressure from within the Liberal Party, which could influence election dynamics. The Conservative Party has been calling for Trudeau’s resignation, reflecting a tense political environment. Additionally, a no-confidence vote spearheaded by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is anticipated by January 2024, potentially precipitating an election and altering parliamentary seats. Trudeau’s support among working-class voters is reported to be diminishing, which can shift voter preferences and affect election outcomes. Recent polls indicate substantial gains for the Conservatives, suggesting a possible shift in parliamentary seats. Furthermore, some former provincial politicians are seeking federal positions, which can also impact the political landscape and election results.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.15
* between 172 and 205: 0.35
* between 206 and 240: 0.3
* more than 240: 0.2
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The Conservative Party’s prospects in the upcoming election appear favorable due to several key factors. Recent polls indicate increased support for the Conservatives alongside a decline in support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, especially among working-class voters. The potential for an early election, prompted by a no-confidence vote led by Pierre Poilievre, could capitalize on these trends. However, while experienced provincial politicians entering federal politics may strengthen the Conservative campaign, historical precedents in Canada suggest dramatic electoral shifts are rare, and several uncertainties could impact the outcome. These include potential polling inaccuracies, possible shifts in voter sentiment due to external events or strategic moves by the Liberal Party, such as replacing Trudeau with a more popular leader. Additionally, issues within the Conservative Party or a strong third-party contender could affect the expected gains.
Runtime: 157 seconds for the three forecasts on this page.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts that were powered by AskNews
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
