How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy‘s latest version of his Multi-AI Oracle says:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query about the Canada Conservative Party election using the provided search results. The user wants current web results from news sites, Wikipedia, party websites, and prediction sites, along with relevant data tables and time series if possible.
First, I’ll go through each search result to find information related to the Conservative Party.
Looking at [1], it’s a news article from Global News dated 2025-04-06. The poll here shows the Liberals leading by 12 points over the Conservatives (46% vs 34%). The Conservatives dropped 4 points from the previous week. This is a key point about current polling trends. Also mentioned is Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s support at 32%, down 1 point. The article also notes the Conservatives’ struggle with U.S. relations and tariffs, which voters see as a critical issue.
Result [4] is a YouTube transcript from Global News about the Conservatives dropping two candidates due to past comments. Mark McKenzie and Stéfan Marquis were removed, which could indicate internal issues or vetting problems. This affects their campaign’s credibility.
Result [5] from CTV News discusses battleground ridings. It mentions the Conservatives’ stronghold in South Surrey—White Rock and their candidate Kerry-Lynne Findlay. However, the Liberals are gaining in some areas. In Saskatchewan’s riding, the redistribution might hurt Conservative chances, with Jim Lemaigre as their candidate. This shows regional challenges.
Result [8] is the Wikipedia page for the 2025 election. It gives the current standings: Conservatives have 120 seats, up from 119 in 2021. Their platform includes tax cuts, GST elimination on homes, and defunding CBC English services. The slogan “Canada First – for a Change” is noted here.
Result [9] from Ipsos discusses voter motivations. Conservative voters are more loyal, with only 6% considering switching to Liberals. Their support is driven by policy stances (59%), while leadership is less a factor (25%). This highlights their base’s priorities.
Result [10] from Angus Reid shows regional breakdowns. The Conservatives lead among men (40% vs 38% Liberals) but trail significantly among women (32% vs 51%). They’re strong in the Prairies but lag in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver.
Now, compiling the data tables. The polling data from [1] and [10] can be compared. From [1], the Ipsos poll has Liberals at 46%, Conservatives 34%, NDP 10%, Bloc 6%, Greens 3%. Angus Reid in [10] shows similar numbers: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 38%, NDP 7%, Bloc 7%. The difference might be due to different methodologies or timing.
For the time series, [1] mentions the Liberals’ lead doubled from the first week. However, specific numbers for each week aren’t provided, so creating a detailed table isn’t feasible. But we can note the trend of Conservatives dropping 4 points in a week.
Key issues affecting the Conservatives include Trump’s tariffs, candidate vetting problems, and regional challenges. Their platform focuses on economy and housing, but trailing in urban areas and among women is a significant hurdle.
Since there’s no data from prediction sites like Kalshi or Polymarket in the search results, I can’t include that. The Wikipedia and news sources provide enough to summarize the current state of the Conservative Party in the election.
The 2025 Canadian federal election campaign has seen significant developments for the Conservative Party (CPC), currently trailing the Liberals in polls but maintaining key regional strongholds. Here’s a synthesis of the latest information from polls, news, and official sources:
—
### Current Polling and Trends
**National voter intention** shows the Liberals leading by 8–12 points over the Conservatives, according to recent Ipsos and Angus Reid polls:
– **Key shifts**: Conservatives dropped 4 points in Ipsos polling over one week, while Liberals gained 2 points[1].
– **Regional performance**: CPC leads in the Prairies but lags in urban centers (e.g., Metro Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal)[10].
—
### Conservative Campaign Challenges
1. **Candidate Controversies**:
– Two candidates (**Mark McKenzie** and **Stéfan Marquis**) were dropped within 24 hours over past controversial comments, including jokes about capital punishment and support for far-right figures[4].
– Both candidates were in low-probability ridings, minimizing electoral risk but highlighting vetting issues[4].
2. **Policy Platform**:
– **Taxation**: Proposing to reduce the lowest income tax bracket from 15% to 12.75% and increase TFSA limits[8].
– **Housing**: Eliminating GST on new homes under $1.3 million for all buyers[8].
– **Media**: Ending funding for CBC’s English-language programming[8].
3. **Voter Sentiment**:
– **Loyalty**: Conservative voters are the most committed, with 59% “absolutely certain” of their choice[9].
– **Motivations**: 57% of CPC voters prioritize policy stances (vs. 25% focused on leadership)[9].
### Battleground Ridings
—
### Leadership and Issues
– **Pierre Poilievre**: Seen as the best PM choice by 32% (down 1 point)[1]. Struggles with unfavorable views among women (61% negative)[10].
– **Top issues**: U.S. relations (tariffs), affordability, and strategic voting to block Liberals[1][9].
### Outlook
The Conservatives face an uphill battle, with regional strengths offset by urban losses and leadership perception gaps. However, policy-focused messaging and high voter loyalty in rural areas could mitigate losses. The final weeks will hinge on countering Liberal momentum in key battlegrounds.
OpenAI gives a base rate of likelihood of achieving stipulated results based on historical and current polling trends (Carolyn’s note: no answer, sorry. On the other hand, today, Open AI gave a base rate for the Sudan question.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 180
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The current base rate reflects historical trends where Canadian federal parties shift seats but rarely exceed major shifts without significant public-influencing events. The Conservatives, trailing by approximately 8-12 points, have challenges in urban regions and among women voters, limiting major gains.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional insights into voter sentiment shifts, strategic moves by the Conservatives late in the campaign, and more granular analysis of regional issues could refine forecasts. Access to proprietary poll data would enhance accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
If unexpected events or strategies effectively elevate public perception of the Conservatives, particularly in urban centers or among demographics currently not strongly supporting them (women, young voters), this base rate could shift significantly.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The Conservative Party must secure more than 172 seats in the election. This has a ‘possible’ likelihood given current trends and voter dynamics.
– Conservative-led campaign strategies need to shift public opinion favorably, especially among women and in urban areas. This likelihood is ‘unlikely’ based on existing demographic challenges.
– Key battleground ridings must swing in favor of the Conservatives. This is ‘uncertain’ due to regional variances in support.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.65, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.09, “more than 240”: 0.01] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 45%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 15%
* more than 240: 5%
The Conservative Party is currently facing significant challenges as they trail the Liberals by 8-12 percentage points in national polls, with particular weaknesses in urban areas and among women voters. Recent poll drops and controversies involving candidates have further complicated their campaign efforts. Despite having a strong support base in the Prairies, their inability to capture significant urban votes limits their potential to significantly increase their current seat count in Parliament. Factors such as the party’s focus on tax cuts and housing resonate with their base but may not appeal enough to urban and women voters. However, there are possible scenarios where they could outperform expectations, such as if polling underestimates their support, a major scandal hits the Liberal Party, or if their campaign strategy succeeds in swaying urban and women voters. Strategic shifts or unforeseen events could also alter current voter dynamics and improve Conservative chances.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
