Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, July 9, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?

6–8 minutes read time

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts just 20%. Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire July 2025

News from various sources:
The retrieved web content primarily consists of repeated links, prompts to continue reading, and a lengthy privacy and cookies notice from Microsoft. Unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be any specific information or news regarding an “Israel Hamas ceasefire” in July 2025 within the text provided. If you have access to a different source of information or a more detailed document on that topic, I would be glad to help you summarize it.

Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the given summary, here are the specific facts identified and their analysis:
1. **Fact:** The retrieved web content primarily consists of repeated links, prompts to continue reading, and a lengthy privacy and cookies notice from Microsoft.
– **Correctness:** True (This fact is internally consistent as the summary directly mentions this observation).
– **Importance (to resolution of the question):** Unimportant (This information does not provide any direct insight into whether a ceasefire will occur).
– **Relevance (to outcome):** False (This information is not relevant to determining the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in July 2025).
2. **Fact:** There doesn’t appear to be any specific information or news regarding an “Israel Hamas ceasefire” in July 2025 within the text provided.
– **Correctness:** True (This is consistent with the content described; there was no specific information about the ceasefire).
– **Importance (to resolution of the question):** Important (The absence of information directly impacts the ability to determine the likelihood of a ceasefire, though it’s primarily relevant to the completeness of the data, rather than the outcome).
– **Relevance (to outcome):** True (Absence of relevant data is crucial when assessing the likelihood of a claim or event).

In summary, there are no specifically relevant updates or data points in the provided summary that address the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in July 2025.

Fact-checked summary:
In reviewing the information provided, it was determined that there is no specific information or news regarding a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in July 2025. The absence of such data directly impacts the ability to assess the likelihood of a ceasefire occurring, making it a crucial point of consideration in evaluating the claim.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 30%
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.40.20.4
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
To calculate the Bayesian probability, take the weighted average based on historical factors. Multiply each factor by its weight and sum up: (0.4 * 0.35) + (0.2 * 0.25) + (0.4 * 0.2) = 0.14 + 0.05 + 0.08 = 0.27. Adjust this by recent developments if any, currently none significant, thus 0.27.
Bayesian base rate: 27%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 22
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is influenced by historical patterns of negotiations and ceasefires between Israel and Hamas. Ceasefires have occurred in the past, but often with significant international and regional pressure. The lack of specific news or rumors about a potential ceasefire suggests a cautious estimate. Past ceasefires have taken anywhere from a few weeks to several months of negotiations.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information about ongoing diplomatic efforts or changes in regional alliances would improve forecasting accuracy. Understanding internal political dynamics within Israel and Hamas and their impact on decision-making processes would also be valuable.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Any sudden change in the geopolitical landscape, such as major international pressure or a significant shift in military advantage, could alter the likelihood. Also, internal politics within Israel or Hamas could change their willingness to negotiate.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Both Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire, which has a moderate likelihood.
– Mediation efforts by external parties, such as the UN or regional actors, lead to a breakthrough, which has a low to moderate likelihood.
– Pressure from international community and significant diplomatic negotiations take place, which has a moderate likelihood.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 15% – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 32% – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 20% – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
MAPD: 0.11333333333333
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.35 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.93
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 20%

The AIs largely agree that the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in July 2025 is low, primarily due to the short timeframe remaining, absence of ongoing negotiations, and the historical necessity of sustained international mediation and pressure, none of which seem prevalent at present. While the base rate for ceasefires in such scenarios is around 0.3, this probability is notably decreased given the current lack of momentum and complex factors required for a ceasefire. However, some AIs note that this prediction could be wrong if there are undisclosed negotiations or sudden geopolitical changes, such as increased international pressure, shifts in internal politics, or significant military developments, which could quickly alter the situation and lead to a ceasefire.

Runtime: 118 seconds.