How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Phil’s pgodzinai, a multi-GenAI bot, is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 2%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 5%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 15%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 35%
* More than 12000: 42%
Model’s Answer:
Rationale:
The forecast for conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025 is based on analyzing the ongoing conflict dynamics, recent casualty reports, historical context, and the provided research snippets. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), ongoing since April 2023, has already caused significant fatalities and displacement. Estimates of total deaths since the conflict began vary greatly, ranging from official figures around 30,000 to researcher estimates exceeding 130,000 by early 2025, highlighting severe underreporting and data collection challenges.
Recent developments in late April 2025 show a marked escalation in violence. Reports indicate intense fighting and high civilian casualties, particularly in North Darfur (El Fasher). One research assistant highlighted over 481 confirmed civilian deaths in North Darfur between April 10-24, while another cited over 500 deaths in the same region and period, along with dozens killed in Khartoum/Omdurman. This suggests a monthly death rate potentially exceeding 1,000 nationwide if this intensity persists. Extrapolating this rate across multiple active conflict zones for the remaining eight months of 2025 suggests a high annual death toll is probable.
The humanitarian situation is described as catastrophic, with millions displaced and requiring aid. While the question focuses on *conflict* deaths (direct casualties), the broader crisis context often correlates with sustained or increased violence. Peace initiatives have so far failed to halt the fighting, and reports mention ethnic targeting and potential war crimes, indicating a deepening and brutal conflict dynamic.
Given we are already four months into 2025, and the recent data points to high current casualty rates, the likelihood of the total 2025 conflict deaths falling below 5,000 seems very low. The primary uncertainty lies in whether the current peak intensity will be sustained, decrease, or escalate further throughout the rest of the year, and how accurately deaths will be recorded and reported by the eventual resolution source.
Considering the sustained nature of the conflict, the recent escalations, the failure of peace efforts, and the scale of the humanitarian crisis, the forecast leans heavily towards the higher ranges. The possibility of the death toll exceeding 12,000 appears substantial if the intensity observed in April 2025 continues or spreads. The ‘Between 8000 and 12000’ range also captures scenarios of continued high, but perhaps slightly fluctuating, violence. Lower ranges seem increasingly unlikely unless a significant, unexpected de-escalation occurs soon. The probability distribution reflects this assessment, acknowledging the inherent uncertainties in conflict data while weighting towards the outcomes suggested by the most recent evidence.
Less than 1000: 1
Between 1000 and 3000: 2
Between 3000 and 5000: 5
Between 5000 and 8000: 15
Between 8000 and 12000: 35
More than 12000: 42
Details on how pgodzinai achieved the above forecast here—>
Past forecasts by both Phil and Jeremy on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Below, map of control in Sudan’s civil war as of April 15, 2025.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
