How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 6%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 17%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 29%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 29%
* More than 12000: 18%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the current situation in Sudan:
The Sudanese army has made significant advances in central Khartoum, notably recapturing the Republican Palace – the seat of government – from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after nearly two years of civil conflict. The military has also claimed control of other key government buildings in the capital, consolidating their position.
The ongoing conflict between the Sudanese army and the RSF has had devastating humanitarian consequences. The war has killed an estimated 150,000 people and displaced millions, creating one of Africa’s largest humanitarian crises. Recent reports indicate that dozens of civilians, including humanitarian volunteers, continue to be killed by artillery shelling and aerial bombardment. The situation in Khartoum remains particularly dire, with reports of widespread civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
The international community continues to express concern about the situation. Germany has temporarily closed its embassy in neighboring South Sudan due to rising tensions, highlighting the regional impact of the conflict. The UN has reported that civilians are being directly targeted as hostilities intensify in the capital, and humanitarian access remains severely restricted. The war appears to be reaching a critical juncture, though prospects for peace remain uncertain given the depth of the conflict between the rival military factions.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent reports from Sudan suggest that the Sudanese army has regained control over key areas in central Khartoum, including the Republican Palace, from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), amid a prolonged civil conflict. The situation has resulted in severe humanitarian repercussions, with an estimated 150,000 deaths and millions displaced. Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage are reportedly widespread, exacerbated by ongoing artillery shelling and aerial bombardment. The international community, concerned about the escalating violence and restricted humanitarian access, notes the conflict’s regional impact, evidenced by Germany closing its embassy in South Sudan. As hostilities intensify, the prospects for peace remain uncertain, and the situation is described as reaching a critical juncture. Caution is warranted, however, as these reports may contain unverified information or propaganda.”
Fact-checking news summary: To address the original question, “How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?”, let’s assess the facts from the summary. Here is a list of specific facts and an evaluation of each in terms of correctness, importance, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **The Sudanese army has regained control over key areas in central Khartoum, including the Republican Palace, from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).**
– **Correctness:** Uncertain (information could be outdated or part of ongoing fluid situation)
– **Importance:** Important (helps understand control dynamics that could affect future conflict deaths)
– **Relevance:** True (relevant for predicting future developments and conflict intensity)
2. **The conflict has resulted in severe humanitarian repercussions, with an estimated 150,000 deaths and millions displaced.**
– **Correctness:** Needs external verification (specific numbers need current specific data for confirmation)
– **Importance:** Critical (directly relates to conflict deaths and future projections)
– **Relevance:** True (highly relevant to the question as it provides a baseline)
3. **Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage are widespread, exacerbated by ongoing artillery shelling and aerial bombardment.**
– **Correctness:** Generally True (consistent with typical conflict scenarios, but needs current data)
– **Importance:** Important (adds to understanding factors contributing to death tolls)
– **Relevance:** True (impacts future conflict-related deaths)
4. **The international community is concerned about escalating violence and restricted humanitarian access.**
– **Correctness:** True (consistent with general international response to escalating conflicts)
– **Importance:** Lesser importance (doesn’t directly predict death toll but influences response efforts)
– **Relevance:** True (indirectly relevant as it impacts relief efforts)
5. **Germany closed its embassy in South Sudan as evidence of the conflict’s regional impact.**
– **Correctness:** Likely False or Misleading (closing of embassy in South Sudan would not evidence Sudan conflict directly and could be an error in reporting)
– **Importance:** Unimportant (embassy closing is not linked to death toll predictions)
– **Relevance:** False (irrelevant to conflict death projections)
6. **The situation is described as reaching a critical juncture, with uncertain prospects for peace.**
– **Correctness:** Likely True (fluid and consistent with ongoing conflict rhetoric)
– **Importance:** Important (directly relates to potential changes in conflict dynamics)
– **Relevance:** True (crucial for understanding potential escalation or resolution)
7. **Caution is warranted as reports may contain unverified information or propaganda.**
– **Correctness:** True (a reasonable statement, given the nature of conflict reporting)
– **Importance:** Important (emphasizes need for caution in data interpretation)
– **Relevance:** True (affects reliability of other reported facts)
Overall, projections for conflict deaths in 2025 would rely heavily on current death tolls, control dynamics, international response, and the ongoing nature and intensity of the conflict, all of which need up-to-date verified data for precise future forecasting.
Fact-checked summary:
In assessing the potential number of conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025, several verified and relevant factors must be considered. The conflict in Sudan has resulted in severe humanitarian repercussions, with millions displaced, indicating a critical situation that directly impacts future conflict death projections. Widespread civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, exacerbated by ongoing artillery shelling and aerial bombardment, are characteristic of current hostilities and contribute to the death toll. The international community’s concern over escalating violence and restricted humanitarian access might not directly predict future casualty numbers but influences relief efforts. Lastly, the situation in Sudan is described as reaching a critical juncture with uncertain prospects for peace, emphasizing the potential for either escalation or resolution that would significantly affect future developments. These facts underscore the complexity and fluid nature of the situation, demanding updated, verified data for any reliable future forecasting of conflict deaths.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.25, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.35, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.09, “More than 12000”: 0.01] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.39] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 6%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 17%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 29%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 29%
* More than 12000: 18%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various AIs assert that the ongoing conflict in Sudan is characterized by intense violence, widespread civilian casualties, and a severe humanitarian crisis with millions displaced. Historical patterns and the current circumstances suggest that the conflict is likely to result in high numbers of fatalities, with estimates ranging from 5,000 to potentially over 12,000 deaths in 2025. The restricted humanitarian access and critical state of the conflict indicate persisting violence, while the potential for a sudden peace agreement or international intervention could alter these predictions. The challenges of reporting in conflict zones and the fluid nature of the situation contribute to the uncertainty in forecasting exact death tolls.
Runtime: 143 seconds for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 28%
* between 172 and 205: 38%
* between 206 and 240: 24%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called a snap federal election to be held on April 28, 2025. This announcement comes at a time of significant international tension, particularly regarding relations with the United States under a potential second Trump presidency.
The main contenders in the election are:
– Liberal Party led by PM Mark Carney
– Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre
– NDP (though leadership not specifically mentioned in articles)
Key campaign issues emerging include:
– Relations with the US, particularly regarding Trump’s trade policies and tariffs
– Middle-class tax cuts (Liberals promising cuts affecting up to 22 million Canadians)
– Economic concerns
– Domestic policy reforms
The race appears to be competitive, with recent polls suggesting the Conservatives’ previous double-digit lead has shrunk to within the margin of error. Poilievre has promised to be “respectful but firm” in dealing with Trump if elected, while Carney is positioning himself as someone who will stand up to Trump’s policies that could affect Canada.
Of particular interest is how this election represents new leadership on the Liberal side with Carney, marking a significant moment of potential change in Ottawa regardless of the outcome. The international context, especially regarding US relations, appears to be playing a major role in shaping the campaign narratives of both major parties.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced a snap federal election for April 28, 2025, amidst significant international tension relating to potential U.S. relations under a possible second Trump presidency. Carney leads the Liberal Party, facing the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre and the NDP, with leadership not specifically mentioned. Key campaign issues include U.S. trade relations, middle-class tax cuts proposed by the Liberals, economic concerns, and domestic policy reforms. The election is highly competitive, with Conservatives’ initial lead narrowing, as polls indicate a close race. Carney aims to oppose Trump’s policies potentially affecting Canada, while Poilievre promises a “respectful but firm” approach toward Trump. This election features new Liberal leadership, suggesting a possible shift in direction for Canada, with international relations heavily influencing campaign strategies.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with an analysis of their accuracy, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced a snap federal election for April 28, 2025.**
– **True/False:** False. [Carolyn’s note: True,.as the bot failed to find this news.] As of the data available up to October 2023, Mark Carney is not the Prime Minister of Canada; Justin Trudeau was the Prime Minister at that time. Carney has not announced any election as he is not in the office to do so. If Carney became Prime Minister after October 2023, it would require a source beyond the given data.
– **Importance:** Critical. This fact is directly related to the timing and context of the upcoming election.
– **Relevance:** True. Knowing the election date is essential to predicting the outcome.
2. **Fact: There is international tension relating to potential U.S. relations under a possible second Trump presidency.**
– **True/False:** True. There was significant discussion and concern about international relations under a potential second Trump term.
– **Importance:** Important. International relations are a major campaign issue that could influence voters.
– **Relevance:** True. It is relevant to the campaign and may affect party platforms and voter opinions.
3. **Fact: Carney leads the Liberal Party, facing the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre.**
– **True/False:** False for Carney. [Carolyn’s note: True. This bot is using out-of-date information].There is no information supporting Carney leading the Liberal Party as of October 2023; Justin Trudeau was the leader. True for Poilievre if he remained the leader through 2025.
– **Importance:** Critical. Knowing who leads each party is crucial to understanding the political context and strategies.
– **Relevance:** True. Leadership plays a key role in elections.
4. **Fact: Leadership for the NDP is not specifically mentioned.**
– **True/False:** True. The summary does not mention who leads the NDP.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. While knowing leadership is helpful, the specific focus is on the Conservatives and Liberals here.
– **Relevance:** True. It is still relevant as it highlights an omission.
5. **Fact: Key campaign issues include U.S. trade relations and middle-class tax cuts proposed by the Liberals.**
– **True/False:** True. U.S. trade relations are often critical, and tax proposals are standard campaign topics.
– **Importance:** Important. Campaign issues heavily influence voter decisions and party popularity.
– **Relevance:** True. These issues directly impact the election outcome.
6. **Fact: The election is highly competitive, with Conservatives’ initial lead narrowing.**
– **True/False:** Likely true, assuming poll data supports this claim. Close races are common in Canadian elections.
– **Importance:** Important. Competitiveness indicates potential outcomes and electoral dynamics.
– **Relevance:** True. It speaks to potential shifts in voter sentiment.
7. **Fact: Carney aims to oppose Trump’s policies potentially affecting Canada.**
– **True/False:** False [Carolyn’s note: True. This bot is using out-of-date information] regarding Carney, unless he was Prime Minister with such policies after October 2023. Conceptually true regarding opposite-party leadership strategies if hypothetical.
– **Importance:** Important. Policy positions against Trump impact international dynamics and voter support.
– **Relevance:** True. Election strategies often focus on contrasting with international figures.
8. **Fact: Poilievre promises a “respectful but firm” approach toward Trump.**
– **True/False:** True for the statement if consistent with prior Poilievre claims.
– **Importance:** Important. How parties plan to handle international relations is a key voter consideration.
– **Relevance:** True. It relates to defining party policy and potential government actions.
9. **Fact: This election features new Liberal leadership, suggesting a possible shift in direction for Canada.**
– **True/False:** Depends on post-2023 events. False [Carolyn’s note: True. This bot is using out-of-date information].per data up to October 2023, with Trudeau leading; true if leadership changed afterward (e.g., to Carney).
– **Importance:** Critical. Leadership change inherently implies potential strategic shifts.
– **Relevance:** True. Leadership changes can pivot national and party strategies.
Fact-checked summary:
Given the original question about predicting the number of seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, definitive and relevant facts include: There is significant international tension regarding potential U.S. relations under a possible second Trump presidency. This is an important factor in the election, as international relations are a major campaign issue that can influence voter decisions. Key campaign issues for the election involve U.S. trade relations and proposed middle-class tax cuts by the Liberals, both of which are crucial topics that can sway voter support and affect the popularity of the parties. Additionally, Pierre Poilievre, who leads the Conservative Party, has promised a “respectful but firm” approach toward Trump, reflecting the party’s intended strategy in handling international relations, a significant consideration for voters. These elements are pertinent in understanding the electoral dynamics and the potential outcomes of the election.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.05, “between 172 and 205”: 0.5, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 28%
* between 172 and 205: 38%
* between 206 and 240: 24%
* more than 240: 10%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AIs converge on several critical factors influencing the political landscape in Canada, focusing particularly on the performance and strategies of the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre. Key issues include the implications of international relations, especially with the U.S., in the event of a second Trump presidency. The potential sway of proposed Liberal tax cuts and their impact on voter sentiment is also significant. Historical performance and current polling data suggest a competitive environment, with Conservatives likely to gain a substantial number of seats, though achieving a majority appears challenging. The prediction remains tentative due to potential shifts in public opinion prompted by unforeseen events, economic developments, and the effectiveness of campaign strategies by all parties involved
[All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
