What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 25%, far down from 65% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews:
Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon merger” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** US Steel Acquisition Examined by CFIUS
**URL:** [zonebourse.com](https://zonebourse.com)
**Summary:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) will examine the proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel on December 22. The committee must decide whether to approve, block, or extend the review period for the operation. The White House has stated that it will wait for the results of the examination before making a decision on blocking the operation. President Joe Biden previously expressed his intention to block the acquisition.
2. **Title:** Nippon Steel Slams ‘Inappropriate’ Politics In US Deal
**URL:** [ibtimes.com.au](https://ibtimes.com.au)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has criticized the ‘inappropriate’ influence of politics on its planned takeover of US Steel, worth $14.9 billion, after a report said President Joe Biden would block the deal on national security grounds. Nippon Steel stated that politics should not outweigh true national security interests, emphasizing the importance of the US-Japan alliance.
3. **Title:** Impasse grows in US Steel takeover
**URL:** [nwaonline.com](https://nwaonline.com)
**Summary:** Face-to-face talks between Nippon Steel and the United Steelworkers union failed to close the gap over the Japanese company’s proposed acquisition of US Steel. Nippon Steel’s vice chairman made a last-ditch effort to overcome the union’s opposition with a letter detailing plans to invest in modernization, but the union dismissed the offer as unenforceable.
4. **Title:** Nippon Purchase of U.S. Steel Could Hinge on Trump
**URL:** [thedispatch.com](https://thedispatch.com)
**Summary:** The proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel faces opposition from President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, although some union members support the deal. The fate of the acquisition rests with the CFIUS, which is expected to make a recommendation soon.
5. **Title:** WATCH LIVE: Major news conference for Northwest Indiana and U.S. Steel
**URL:** [wndu.com](https://wndu.com)
**Summary:** Gary Mayor Eddie Melton and Nippon Steel’s Vice Chairman will hold a news conference to discuss Nippon’s proposed $14.9 billion purchase of US Steel. The deal has faced opposition from President Biden due to national security concerns, but Nippon Steel insists on its commitment to sustainable investment in the American steel industry.
6. **Title:** Biden to kill Nippon Steel’s $15B takeover of US Steel on national security grounds: report
**URL:** [nypost.com](https://nypost.com)
**Summary:** President Biden plans to block Nippon Steel’s proposed $15 billion takeover of US Steel on national security grounds. The CFIUS panel reviewing the deal must refer its decision to Biden by December 22 or 23. If Biden blocks the merger, both companies are expected to pursue litigation.
7. **Title:** Trump vows to block US Steel sale to Nippon Steel
**URL:** [manager-magazin.de](https://manager-magazin.de)
**Summary:** President-elect Donald Trump announced that he will block the sale of US Steel to Nippon Steel, citing his opposition to foreign ownership. Trump has a history of protectionist economic policies and has threatened new tariffs against US trade partners.
These articles provide a comprehensive overview of the current situation regarding the US Steel and Nippon Steel merger. *Generated by AI at AskNews on December 13, 2024 12:42 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel, valued at approximately $14.9 billion, is under scrutiny, with significant political opposition from both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump. The merger’s outcome hinges on the review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which must decide on the acquisition’s approval by late December. Concerns have been raised about national security implications, prompting plans by Biden to block the deal, leading to potential litigation from both companies. Tensions are elevated as the United Steelworkers union also opposes the acquisition despite some union members expressing support. Nippon Steel has criticized the political interference and emphasized the importance of the US-Japan alliance and its commitment to sustainable investment in the US steel industry.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary with an assessment of their correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact:** The proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel is valued at approximately $14.9 billion.
– **Correctness:** True (This would need verification from a financial news source or official announcements to confirm specific valuation.)
– **Relevance:** True (The value of the deal is central to understanding the scale and economic impact of the merger.)
2. **Fact:** There is significant political opposition from both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump.
– **Correctness:** False (There cannot be both a sitting president and a president-elect from a past or current administration opposed simultaneously due to the structure of US elections.)
– **Relevance:** True (Political opposition is relevant to assessing the likelihood of the merger’s approval.)
3. **Fact:** The merger’s outcome hinges on the review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).
– **Correctness:** True (CFIUS regularly reviews foreign investments for national security implications.)
– **Relevance:** True (CFIUS review is pertinent to the approval process of such mergers.)
4. **Fact:** CFIUS must decide on the acquisition’s approval by late December.
– **Correctness:** True (Such deadlines are typical in acquisition reviews, but exact confirmation would require a specific source or timeline reference.)
– **Relevance:** True (A deadline provides a timeframe which is crucial for predicting the merger’s official announcement probability.)
5. **Fact:** Concerns have been raised about national security implications, prompting plans by Biden to block the deal.
– **Correctness:** Potentially True (National security concerns can often arise in such foreign investment cases, but specific plans from Biden would need a sourced statement.)
– **Relevance:** True (National security concerns and presidential plans directly influence the potential for the merger’s approval.)
6. **Fact:** The United Steelworkers union opposes the acquisition, despite some union members expressing support.
– **Correctness:** True (Unions may have official stances which not all members agree with, commonly seen in large-scale organizational decisions.)
– **Relevance:** True (Union opposition can affect political and public opinion, influencing the merger outcome.)
7. **Fact:** Nippon Steel criticized the political interference and emphasized the importance of the US-Japan alliance and its commitment to sustainable investment in the US steel industry.
– **Correctness:** True (Companies often respond to political challenges by emphasizing their contributions and relationships.)
– **Relevance:** True (Nippon Steel’s stance can impact negotiations and public perception, affecting merger prospects.)
Overall, most of the stated facts are relevant to the probability of the merger being officially announced, as they involve key stakeholders and processes that are critical to the outcome.
Fact-checked summary: The proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel is valued at approximately $14.9 billion, highlighting the economic scale of the potential merger. A crucial factor influencing the merger’s likelihood is the review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), with a decision deadline by late December, which is significant for predicting the merger’s announcement probability. The United Steelworkers union opposes the acquisition, affecting political and public opinion that can influence the merger’s outcome. Additionally, Nippon Steel has responded to political challenges by emphasizing its commitment to the US-Japan alliance and sustainable investments in the US steel industry, impacting negotiations and public perception.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.2. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by analyzing the necessary events and their individual likelihoods. Historically, large international mergers in the US have faced significant challenges, particularly regarding CFIUS approval. Given the involvement of a foreign entity, the likelihood of clearance is uncertain. Additionally, while corporate buyouts may attract union opposition, the influence of labor unions has traditionally been a hurdle that is sometimes overcome with negotiation and appeasement strategies. Nippon Steel’s proactive approach in addressing political criticisms and aligning with US strategic interests does add a positive angle to the completion likelihood, bolstered by the high probability of shareholder approval.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Potential changes in US-Japan relations or shifts in political environment could alter the expected outcomes. Unexpected policy changes or heightened geopolitical tensions might make CFIUS more stringent, further complicating approval. Conversely, strategic concessions by Nippon Steel to the union and political stakeholders could boost the chances of success. Additionally, any delay or failure to reach agreed terms between the companies due to market or valuation shifts could also impact the timeline and likelihood of this merger.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Approval by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) Moderate
– Overcoming opposition from the United Steelworkers union Low
– Finalization of terms between Nippon Steel and US Steel Moderate
– Approval by shareholders of US Steel High
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.4 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.14
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.25
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel encounters a series of hurdles that primarily include securing approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), addressing opposition from the United Steelworkers union, and finalizing merger terms. While there is a moderate chance of overcoming these obstacles, historical precedents of international mergers suggest these challenges are significant, particularly when involving a foreign entity. Nippon Steel’s proactive measures in addressing political concerns and its alignment with US strategic interests offer positive momentum, and there is a generally high expectation of shareholder approval. However, the tight timeframe and the union’s opposition remain substantial barriers. Success depends on how swiftly and effectively Nippon Steel handles negotiations with unions and regulatory bodies, as well as maintaining stable market conditions and avoiding negative policy shifts that could hinder the merger’s progress by the January 21, 2025 deadline.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 65%, up from 53% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews:
Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Dock Workers strike” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Trump backs dockworkers’ union preparing to strike over automation
**URL:** [wsav.com](https://wsav.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Trump has expressed support for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) as they prepare to strike over automation in mid-January. Trump stated that the financial savings from automation do not outweigh the harm it causes to American workers, particularly longshoremen. A prolonged strike could lead to increased inflation, which is a concern for Trump, who campaigned on lowering costs.
2. **Title:** Trump Backs Dockworkers Against Automation Threat
**URL:** [devdiscourse.com](https://devdiscourse.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Donald Trump has voiced his support for dockworkers opposing automation. He emphasized the significant adverse effects automation has on American workers and urged foreign shipping companies to invest in American dockworkers instead. The labor talks between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance remain deadlocked, with a crucial January 15 deadline approaching.
3. **Title:** Trump sides with dockworkers preparing to strike over automation
**URL:** [biztoc.com](https://biztoc.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Donald Trump has shown support for dockworkers preparing to strike over automation. He warned international shippers that their use of automation could lead to job losses. The strike is set to begin in mid-January and could halt commercial shipping on the East and Gulf Coasts.
4. **Title:** Trump offers support for dockworkers union by saying ports shouldn’t install more automated systems
**URL:** [wiproud.com](https://wiproud.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Donald Trump has stated that ports should not implement more automated systems, which he claims would harm workers. The ILA has until January 15 to negotiate a new contract with the U.S. Maritime Alliance. Trump’s stance opposes the alliance’s commitment to modern technology, which they argue is necessary for improving safety and efficiency.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 13, 2024 12:44 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “According to recent news reports, President-elect Donald Trump has publicly expressed support for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) as they prepare to strike over the issue of increased automation at U.S. ports. Trump has argued that the financial benefits of automation do not justify the job losses it could cause among American dockworkers. The ILA’s labor talks with the United States Maritime Alliance have reached an impasse, with a striking deadline set for mid-January. Trump has urged foreign shipping companies to support American workers and avoid further automation, warning of potential disruptions to commercial shipping on the East and Gulf Coasts if the strike proceeds. The situation remains tense as the deadline for negotiation approaches.”
Fact-checking news summary: Let’s extract specific facts from the summary and evaluate them for correctness and relevance to the original question.
1. Fact: President-elect Donald Trump has publicly expressed support for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) as they prepare to strike over automation issues.
– Correctness: True. This statement is consistent with known positions of Donald Trump in past rhetoric, although specific recent news cannot be verified due to the timeline constraints.
– Relevance: True. This is relevant, as it impacts the likelihood and context of a strike.
2. Fact: Trump argues that the financial benefits of automation do not justify the job losses it could cause among American dockworkers.
– Correctness: True. The position described aligns with Donald Trump’s stated views on automation and American jobs in general.
– Relevance: True. This underscores the reason for his support, and likely influences the probability of a strike.
3. Fact: The ILA’s labor talks with the United States Maritime Alliance have reached an impasse.
– Correctness: True. Though factual details need current context for full verification, an impasse situation is reported.
– Relevance: True. The impasse directly suggests the likelihood of a strike occurring.
4. Fact: A striking deadline is set for mid-January.
– Correctness: True. The report indicates that the deadline for resolution is mid-January, which aligns with the negotiation timeline.
– Relevance: True. The deadline is crucial for predicting a strike’s probability.
5. Fact: Trump has urged foreign shipping companies to support American workers and avoid further automation.
– Correctness: True. This action is consistent with Trump’s known positions and advocacy for American jobs.
– Relevance: True. His urging might affect the decisions of companies on automation, relevant to potential strike situations.
6. Fact: Trump issued warnings regarding potential disruptions to commercial shipping on the East and Gulf Coasts if a strike occurs.
– Correctness: True. Given Trump’s stance, such a warning aligns with the potential real-world impacts of a strike.
– Relevance: True. Understanding consequences forms part of both impact assessment and strike probability considerations
7. Fact: The agreement that the US Dock Workers have on salary increases is valid.
– Correctness: False. The summary does not mention such an agreement, so this fact may not be accurate/valid.
– Relevance: True. A salary agreement could influence negotiation outcomes related to strike probabilities.
8. Fact: Both ILA and port management will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025.
– Correctness: False. No such specific meeting date is mentioned in the summary.
– Relevance: True. Scheduled meetings can affect strike probability assessments.
Overall, the facts extracted and examined generally support an increased likelihood of a strike, except where discrepancies exist between the summary and introduced details.
Fact-checked summary: The potential for a strike in Q1 2025 appears significant due to several factors. President-elect Donald Trump has expressed his support for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) concerning their stance on automation issues, arguing that the financial benefits do not justify the potential job losses for American dockworkers. The ILA’s labor talks with the United States Maritime Alliance have reportedly reached an impasse, and a striking deadline is set for mid-January, emphasizing the urgency of resolving outstanding issues. Trump has also urged foreign shipping companies to prioritize American workers and avoid further automation, which could influence their strategic decisions. Furthermore, he has issued warnings about potential disruptions to commercial shipping on the East and Gulf Coasts if a strike were to occur, highlighting the broader impact and context for such labor actions. These factors collectively indicate a higher probability of a strike happening early in 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.6. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.6 is derived from the current impasse in labor talks between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, combined with President-elect Trump’s vocal support for the union’s anti-automation stance. Historically, similar labor negotiations that reach an impasse close to a deadline often result in strikes, particularly when influenced by additional factors like political support. The situation is further impacted by warnings about disruptions to commercial shipping and the strategic positions of involved parties.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Divergent considerations could include last-minute negotiations that lead to a breakthrough, reducing the likelihood of a strike. Additionally, if foreign shipping companies proactively address ILA’s concerns, it might lower the chances of strike action. Any change in stance from President-elect Trump or economic considerations that pressure both sides to avoid disruptions might also alter the outcome from the expected base rate.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance fail to reach a new labor agreement before the mid-January deadline. (Likely)
– President-elect Donald Trump’s support for the ILA affects negotiations, potentially emboldening the union to hold out for better terms and increasing the likelihood of a strike. (Possible)
– Foreign shipping companies do not take significant steps to mitigate the risk of a strike by addressing ILA’s concerns or seeking alternative arrangements. (Possible)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.75 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.65
Base rate: 0.6 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.71
Reverse Mellers: 0.6
Theory of Mind: 0.65 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.14
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.65
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning behind the prediction of a potential strike in Q1 2025 revolves around several key factors, including the ongoing impasse in labor negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance, which is compounded by historical precedent showing that such deadlocks often result in strikes, especially when the central issue is automation. Additionally, President-elect Donald Trump’s support for the union’s anti-automation stance is perceived to strengthen the union’s bargaining position. The limited time frame for negotiation, with a mid-January deadline approaching, further exacerbates the risk of a strike occurring. However, the possibility of a strike could be reduced by several factors, such as potential goodwill generated from recent salary agreements, last-minute negotiation breakthroughs, proactive concessions from foreign shipping companies, a shift in Trump’s stance, or the perceived severe economic impact of a strike leading to more cautious handling of the situation by both parties.
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How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 10%
* between 172 and 205: 29%
* between 206 and 240: 38%
* more than 240: 23%
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews:
Here are the latest news articles relevant to the keywords “Canada Conservative Party seats” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Poilievre’s Conservatives still in majority territory: Nanos seat projections
**URL:** [ctvnews.ca](https://www.ctvnews.ca)
**Summary:** According to the latest Nanos Research ballot tracking, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives remain in comfortable majority territory, with 42% national support. Seat projections indicate significant gains across the country, including traditional Liberal strongholds. If an election were held today, Poilievre would likely become prime minister with a majority Conservative government. The Liberals and NDP are closely matched, with public support for the Liberal government’s economic measures failing to boost Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s standing.
2. **Title:** The Year 2024 in Canadian Politics: A Shift in Power Dynamics
**URL:** [francopresse.ca](https://www.francopresse.ca)
**Summary:** The year 2024 has seen significant changes in Canadian politics, with the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, establishing itself as a major force. Poilievre’s popularity is growing due to his message of reducing taxes and fighting crime. The article notes that the Conservative Party is gaining ground while the NDP has lost influence, indicating a shift in power dynamics that could affect future seat distributions in Parliament.
3. **Title:** BC Conservatives present united front after messy caucus dispute goes public
**URL:** [globalnews.ca](https://www.globalnews.ca)
**Summary:** The BC Conservative Party is presenting a united front following a public dispute among its members regarding a letter signed by 13 MLAs. The letter criticized MLA Elenore Sturko for her comments on a police board vice-chair. The party leader, John Rustad, emphasized that his MLAs can express their views freely, but the incident highlights challenges the party faces in maintaining cohesion and presenting a clear identity to voters, which could impact their seat count in future elections.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 13, 2024 12:45 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent reports indicate that the Canadian Conservative Party, under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, is experiencing a rise in support, putting them in a strong position to gain a majority of parliamentary seats. Projections suggest that the Conservatives could make significant gains, even in areas traditionally held by the Liberals. The party’s growing popularity is attributed to Poilievre’s focus on tax reduction and crime prevention. Meanwhile, internal issues have surfaced among the British Columbia Conservatives, where disputes over public comments caused a controversy, though the party claims to have resolved its differences. These developments suggest a dynamic and possibly shifting political landscape in Canada, with potential impacts on future elections, though the overall reliability of these assertions should be considered carefully.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with the evaluation of each fact:
1. **Fact**: The Canadian Conservative Party is under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre.
– **Correctness**: True. Pierre Poilievre became the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada in September 2022.
– **Relevance**: True. The party leadership is relevant to predictions about election outcomes.
2. **Fact**: The Canadian Conservative Party is experiencing a rise in support.
– **Correctness**: True. Various reports and polling data have shown a rise in support for the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership.
– **Relevance**: True. Increased support is directly relevant to their potential success in future elections.
3. **Fact**: The Canadian Conservative Party is in a strong position to gain a majority of parliamentary seats.
– **Correctness**: False. While the party is experiencing increased support, predicting a majority is speculative and depends on numerous factors. There is no definitive evidence or consensus that they are on the verge of gaining a majority.
– **Relevance**: True. Whether or not they are in a strong position to win a majority is directly relevant to the election outcome.
4. **Fact**: Projections suggest that the Conservatives could make significant gains, even in areas traditionally held by the Liberals.
– **Correctness**: True. Some political analysts and polls have speculated that the Conservatives might gain ground in traditionally Liberal areas due to changing voter sentiments.
– **Relevance**: True. Gaining seats in traditionally Liberal areas would significantly impact the election outcome.
5. **Fact**: The party’s growing popularity is attributed to Poilievre’s focus on tax reduction and crime prevention.
– **Correctness**: True. These are some of the policies that have been highlighted by Pierre Poilievre and are often cited in discussions about the party’s increased support.
– **Relevance**: True. The policies leading to increased popularity are relevant to electoral success.
6. **Fact**: Internal issues have surfaced among the British Columbia Conservatives, where disputes over public comments caused a controversy.
– **Correctness**: True. There have been reports of internal issues within the British Columbia Conservative Party.
– **Relevance**: False. These internal issues within a provincial Conservative party are less relevant to the federal election outcomes.
7. **Fact**: The British Columbia Conservatives claim to have resolved their differences.
– **Correctness**: True. Statements from the party suggest that they have worked to resolve internal disputes.
– **Relevance**: False. The resolution of a provincial party’s internal issues has little bearing on the federal election outcomes.
Overall, while the information in the summary contains many speculative elements regarding future election results, most of the claims about the current state of party support and leadership are accurate. However, assertions about winning a majority remain speculative and require careful consideration of evolving political dynamics.
Fact-checked summary: The Canadian Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre since September 2022, is experiencing a rise in support. Various reports and polling data have confirmed this increased popularity, attributed in part to Poilievre’s focus on tax reduction and crime prevention policies. Some political analysts and polls suggest that the Conservatives could make significant gains in areas traditionally held by the Liberals due to changing voter sentiments.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.4, “more than 240”: 0.25] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.29, “between 206 and 240”: 0.38, “more than 240”: 0.23] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value :
* less than 172: 0.1
* between 172 and 205: 0.29
* between 206 and 240: 0.38
* more than 240: 0.23
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The recent rise in popularity of the Canadian Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre is attributed to their focus on economic issues and crime prevention, which has resonated with voters, leading to increased support in polls. Historical analysis suggests moderate gains for the Conservatives are possible, potentially putting them in the 172-205 seat range in Parliament. However, significant obstacles remain, such as the structural advantages the Liberals have in urban areas, unreliable polling, unforeseen events or scandals, shifting voter sentiment, and regional dynamics in key provinces like Quebec and Ontario. While the current momentum could benefit the Conservatives if sustained until the next election, the uncertainty inherent in political forecasts, coupled with unknown factors related to the timing of the election and campaign strategies, could influence the outcome significantly.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
