Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, May 21, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025?

Today, May 21, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 15%

Here’s how his Multi-AI Oracle bot calculated this:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire May 2025
Results from around the web:

Okay, let’s tackle this query step by step. The user wants current web results related to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in May 2025, a summary, relevant data tables, and a list of sources.

First, I need to go through the provided search results. They mention several key points: Qatari PM stating talks haven’t progressed due to a fundamental gap between Israel and Hamas. Hamas accuses Israel of not being committed, while Israel claims Hamas is rejecting proposals. There’s a US proposal for a 2-month ceasefire in exchange for 9-10 hostages, which Hamas denies agreeing to. The IDF announced a fallen soldier, and Israel allowed limited aid into Gaza.

Next, I should organize this information into sections. The summary should outline the main developments. Then, create a table comparing the positions of Israel and Hamas based on the search results. Since there’s no explicit time series data provided, I can’t include that, but I can mention the lack thereof. Finally, list all the URLs used as sources.
I need to make sure citations are correctly applied after each relevant sentence. The tables should be in Markdown format for clarity. Also, check that all sources are included at the end. Since there’s no numerical data for time series, I’ll note that it’s unavailable. Make sure the answer is concise, uses headers properly, and follows all formatting rules.

Recent developments in Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations during May 2025 reveal stalled talks amid conflicting demands. Qatari mediators report a “fundamental gap” between Israel’s incremental approach and Hamas’s insistence on a comprehensive agreement[1][4]. The US proposed a 45-60 day ceasefire involving limited hostage releases, but Hamas rejected this framework[3][4].

## Key Developments
**Negotiation Stances**
– **Israel**: Willing to accept phased hostage releases (9-10 captives initially) in exchange for temporary ceasefires[3][4]. Seeks complete demilitarization of Gaza and Hamas’s removal from power[1].
– **Hamas**: Demands permanent ceasefire guarantees and full Israeli withdrawal before releasing all remaining hostages[1][3][4].

**Humanitarian Situation**
Israel permitted limited aid shipments to Gaza on May 21 after international pressure regarding famine risks[5]. The IDF confirmed one soldier’s death during ongoing operations[4].

## Data Availability
Time series data wasn’t found in the examined sources. Market prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket showed no publicly available contracts tracking ceasefire likelihoods as of May 21.

Sources:
1. https://abcnews.go.com/International/gaza-ceasefire-talks-led-qatari-pm/story?id=121994340
2. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/israel-and-the-occupied-palestinian-territories-foreign-secretary-statement-20-may-2025
3. https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-said-pushing-2-month-ceasefire-deal-for-9-10-hostages-hamas-denies-this-is-agreed/
4. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/2025-05-21/live-updates-854813
5. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-gaza-war-netanyahu-faces-sanctions-threat-palestinians-starvation/
OpenAI gives a base rate of 20%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.40.20.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Start with a prior of 0.2 based on past ceasefire success. Adjust according to likelihood given current news: multiply by 0.2 (Israel accepting terms) and incorporate other considerations: 0.2 * (0.4 US effectiveness * 0.5 for low negotiation progress). Resulting value: 0.04.
Bayesian base rate: 4%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 60
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is drawn from similar historical contexts of ceasefires between Israel and Hamas. Past agreements have often been volatile, with a successful resolution occurring in roughly 20% of comparable situations.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Ideally, more detailed insights into the positions of all involved parties (Hamas, Israel, mediators) and their red lines would improve the forecast. Access to internal assessment and back-door communication attempts would also provide clarity.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Current negotiations seem more fraught due to a lack of progress and clear demands from both sides, which may lead to a lower probability than the base rate suggests.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Israel and Hamas agree to terms of a ceasefire, which has a likelihood of Unlikely.
– The US or another mediator successfully proposes a plan acceptable to both parties, with a likelihood of Possible.
– Hamas receives assurance of a permanent ceasefire lasting at least 45-60 days in exchange for hostage releases, with a likelihood of Possible.
– Israel agrees to terms including phased hostage releases without full demilitarization of Gaza, with a likelihood of Unlikely.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.08
MAPD: 0.13333333333333
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.35 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.7
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 15%

The predicted likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared by the end of May 2025 is low. This assessment is based on a historical base rate of 0.2 for similar successful ceasefire agreements, current negotiations revealing a significant gap between the parties, rejected US mediation attempts, and the requirement for several stringent conditions to be met by both sides. As of late May, the limited time for resolution further diminishes the probability. However, there remains a possibility that unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs, mounting international pressure, or the humanitarian crisis could force concessions and lead to an unexpected agreement. The involvement of new or existing mediators might also catalyze such outcomes, despite the ongoing tensions and historical volatility in the region.

Runtime: 73 seconds.