How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Phil’s pgodzinai, a multi-GenAI bot, is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Less than 1000: 1%
Between 1000 and 3000: 7%
Between 3000 and 5000: 18%
Between 5000 and 8000: 35%
Between 8000 and 12000: 29%
More than 12000: 10%
Model’s Answer:
# Analysis of Sudan’s Conflict Death Toll for 2025
## Recent Developments and Current Situation
Based on the research assistants’ reports, Sudan is experiencing a severe escalation in violence, particularly in North Darfur. The conflict has entered its third year as of April 2025, with recent developments indicating a significant intensification:
– **Confirmed recent deaths**: Multiple sources report 542+ civilian deaths in North Darfur over just the past three weeks (approximately 180 deaths per week)
– **El Fasher under siege**: RSF forces are conducting a large-scale assault on El Fasher (the last major Darfur city under government control) and displacement camps
– **Humanitarian catastrophe**: The UN Human Rights Chief describes “apocalyptic conditions” with severe limitations on humanitarian access
This recent surge in violence represents a significant escalation compared to earlier periods, with clear evidence of intensification rather than de-escalation.
## Extrapolating 2025 Death Toll
To forecast the total conflict deaths for 2025, I need to extrapolate the current trends while accounting for:
1. **Current death rate**: ~180 deaths per week in North Darfur alone
2. **Geographic scope**: North Darfur is just one of several conflict zones in Sudan
3. **Temporal dynamics**: We’re in May, with nearly 8 months remaining in 2025
4. **Conflict trajectory**: Evidence suggests escalation rather than de-escalation
If we extrapolate the North Darfur death rate (180/week) for the remainder of 2025:
– Approximately 35 weeks remain in 2025
– This projects to ~6,300 additional deaths in North Darfur alone
– We must also account for deaths in other regions and deaths that have already occurred from January-April 2025
## Historical Context and Comparable Conflicts
The research suggests:
– Over 37,000 deaths have been recorded since April 2023 (approximately 50 deaths per day on average)
– However, recent weeks show a significant acceleration of this rate
– The conflict has created the world’s largest food crisis with 24.6 million facing severe hunger
– Multiple sources indicate that actual death tolls are likely “much higher” than confirmed figures
## Assessment of Probability Distribution
Given these factors, I assess the probability distribution as follows:
1. **Less than 1,000 deaths**: Extremely unlikely given that we already have confirmation of over 542 deaths in just three weeks in one region. The conflict is nationwide and shows no signs of resolution.
2. **Between 1,000 and 3,000 deaths**: Highly unlikely given current death rates. Even a conservative estimate based on just North Darfur suggests over 6,000 deaths for the remainder of the year.
3. **Between 3,000 and 5,000 deaths**: Unlikely given current death rates and the breadth of the conflict. This would require a significant de-escalation that is not supported by any evidence.
4. **Between 5,000 and 8,000 deaths**: Plausible given current reported death rates. This range is consistent with extrapolating the North Darfur rate nationwide, accounting for some potential fluctuation.
5. **Between 8,000 and 12,000 deaths**: Also quite plausible, especially if the conflict continues to escalate or if current death reporting is significantly underestimating the true toll (which multiple sources suggest is happening).
6. **More than 12,000 deaths**: Possible but less likely than the previous two ranges. This would require either a significant further escalation of the conflict or discovering that current death reporting is severely underestimating casualties.
## Key Uncertainty Factors
1. **Under-reporting**: Multiple sources indicate actual death tolls are likely “much higher” than confirmed figures
2. **Conflict trajectory**: Will international pressure or exhaustion lead to de-escalation?
3. **Seasonal factors**: Will the rainy season impact conflict dynamics?
4. **Humanitarian access**: Will blocked aid lead to higher indirect conflict deaths?
## Final Probability Distribution
Accounting for all factors and recognizing the high degree of uncertainty in such a volatile situation, I assign the following probabilities:
Less than 1000: 1%
Between 1000 and 3000: 7%
Between 3000 and 5000: 18%
Between 5000 and 8000: 35%
Between 8000 and 12000: 29%
More than 12000: 10%
Details on how pgodzinai achieved the above forecast —>
Past forecasts by both Phil and Jeremy on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Currently, the average of the twenty VIEWS competitors predict that Sudan conflict deaths will decrease sharply this year, as shown by their graph below.
Below, map of control in Sudan’s civil war as of April 15, 2025.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
