How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election? Here’s what Jeremy‘s new version of his Multi-AI Oracle says.
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, let’s start by understanding the user’s query. They want information on the Canada Conservative Party election, specifically looking for current web results from news sites, Wikipedia, party websites, and prediction markets. They also want tables of relevant data and possibly time series if applicable.
First, I’ll go through each of the provided search results to identify which ones are relevant. The search results include several news articles from sources like National Post, Global News, Ipsos, Angus Reid, and others. There’s also data from past elections and information on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Starting with the National Post article [1], it gives a detailed breakdown of the 2025 election scenarios. It mentions the Liberals under Mark Carney leading in the polls, with the Conservatives (CPC) trailing. Odds from Bet99 show Liberals have a higher chance of winning a majority. Historical polling data shows a shift from CPC leading in January to Liberals gaining after Trudeau resigned. This is key for current standings.
The Global News video [4] and Ipsos poll [6] reinforce the Liberal lead, with Ipsos showing 44% support for Liberals vs. 38% for Conservatives. Angus Reid [8] also shows similar numbers, highlighting that the CPC has a more committed voter base but the Liberals are gaining in urban areas. These sources should be combined to show the current polling trends.
The Windsor Star article [7] and Global News video [9] discuss the CPC dropping candidates due to controversial comments. This is relevant as internal issues might affect CPC’s performance. Mentioning the candidate drops adds context on CPC’s campaign challenges.
Regarding prediction markets, the Kalshi vs. Polymarket article [3] explains their odds structure. Kalshi’s 64% chance for Liberals vs. Polymarket’s 22% for CPC majority. Including this gives insight into market sentiment, which aligns with polling data.
Election results from 2021 [2][5][10] provide historical context. The 2021 results had Liberals at 157 seats and CPC at 121. However, the current polls suggest a swing towards Liberals. Comparisons here can show the shift in voter support.
For the data tables, I’ll need to extract relevant figures. The Ipsos and Angus Reid polls [6][8] have percentage support data which can be tabulated. The seat projections from [1] mention Bet99 odds and 338Canada’s models, which can be another table. The prediction market odds from [3] can form a separate table. Since time series data is limited, focusing on recent polling changes (e.g., from December to March) might be useful, though not all sources provide time-series specifics.
I’ll also note the issues CPC faces, like candidate controversies and vote splitting with NDP/Bloc, as per [1][7][9]. This adds depth to why their numbers might be struggling despite a committed base.
Finally, ensuring all claims are properly cited with the corresponding search result numbers. For example, polling numbers from Ipsos would cite [6], while prediction market data cites [3]. The candidate issues cite [7][9].
As of early April 2025, Canada’s federal election campaign shows a dramatic shift in political dynamics, with the Liberal Party regaining momentum under new leader Mark Carney, while the Conservatives face internal challenges and vote-splitting risks. Here’s a breakdown of key developments and data:
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## **Current Polling and Projections**
### National Vote Intention
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The Liberals now lead in Ontario (52%), Quebec (49%), and British Columbia (50%), while the Conservatives dominate Alberta/Saskatchewan (68%)[8]. Bet99 gives the Liberals a 64% chance of winning a majority[1].
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## **Key Factors Shaping the Race**
**1. Leadership Shakeup**
Mark Carney’s ascension to Liberal leadership reversed a 25-point Conservative polling lead from December 2024[1]. His focus on addressing Trump-era trade tensions and domestic economic concerns has resonated with voters[4].
**2. Conservative Challenges**
– **Candidate Controversies**: Two CPC candidates were dropped within 24 hours for advocating extreme policies (e.g., public hangings)[7][9].
– **Vote Splitting**: Reduced NDP/Bloc support benefits Liberals in battleground ridings like Niagara Falls[1].
– **Urban Weakness**: CPC trails by 20+ points in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal metros[8].
**3. Prediction Market Insights**
–—
## **2021 vs 2025 Seat Comparison**
**Critical Trends**:
– The PPC’s 2021 vote split cost CPC 10+ seats[5]. Current NDP collapse reduces this risk[1].
– Bloc Québécois’ decline (-11 points in QC) benefits Liberals[1][8].
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## **Voter Sentiment**
– **72%** describe this election as “way more important” than 2021[8].
– **52%** of voters are “absolutely certain” of their choice, with CPC voters showing higher commitment (58%) than Liberals (54%)[6].
– Economic policy (51%) and US-Canada relations (39%) top voter priorities[8].
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This evolving landscape suggests the Liberals are positioned to regain power, though Conservative resilience in Western Canada and committed voter bases could limit losses. The April 28 election outcome will hinge on urban/suburban battlegrounds and the parties’ ability to navigate unprecedented geopolitical tensions with the US[1][4][8].
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of Liberal party winning majority (Carolyn’s note: I suspect the lack of a numerical base rate means that Open AI didn’t return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 26
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers historical polling data since December 2024, recent controversies within the Conservative party, and the current leadership change in the Liberal party. The strong urban support and favorable prediction markets for the Liberals contribute significantly to the base rate.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Access to more granular polling data across all provinces, insights into undecided voter segments, and detailed data on election day logistics and potential disruptions would improve forecast accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Potential changes in voter sentiment due to unforeseen events, such as economic downturns or major international incidents, could change the dynamics. Additionally, further controversies or strategic mistakes by any party might shift the balance.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– A national election occurs with the given date schedule Highly likely
– The Liberal party maintains or increases its current polling lead Likely
– The Conservative party resolves internal candidate issues without major voter backlash Moderately likely
– Polling trends remain consistent leading up to the election day Moderately likely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.65, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.08, “more than 240”: 0.02] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.5, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 22%
* between 172 and 205: 44%
* between 206 and 240: 28%
* more than 240: 6%
Current polling data indicates that the Liberal Party is leading the Conservative Party by 44% to 38%, with the Liberals gaining momentum and support in urban areas, largely attributed to Mark Carney’s leadership. The Conservatives, in contrast, are struggling with internal controversies and lack of strong urban backing. Historical electoral performance and current projections suggest the Conservatives may further lose seats, potentially securing between 110 and 125 seats. However, several factors, such as potential underestimation of Conservative support in polls, a possible major scandal affecting the Liberals, economic downturns, or improved Conservative vote efficiency, could alter these predictions. Additionally, unexpected events or strategic errors by the Liberals could also influence outcomes, making predictions uncertain.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
