How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 10%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 19%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 29%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 28%
* More than 12000: 13%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the current situation in Sudan:
The civil war in Sudan between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group continues to devastate the country, with recent reports highlighting severe humanitarian concerns:
Latest Developments (Past Week):
– The battle for Khartoum remains intense, with reports of severe fighting and deteriorating conditions in the capital city. The BBC has documented evidence of atrocities committed by retreating fighters.
– UNICEF warns that approximately 12.1 million women and girls (and increasingly men and boys) are at risk of sexual violence in the conflict.
– The humanitarian situation has reached critical levels, with widespread food insecurity and displacement. Basic infrastructure, including sewage systems and hospitals, has broken down in many areas.
Scale of Crisis:
– The conflict, which began in April 2023, has resulted in at least 150,000 casualties according to recent estimates.
– The UN describes Sudan’s humanitarian situation as one of the worst in the world.
– There are growing concerns about the possibility of Sudan splitting into two countries as the conflict continues to fragment the nation.
– International response includes expanded sanctions from countries like Canada, though there are fears that U.S. aid cuts could further damage Sudan’s already struggling health services.
The situation shows no signs of improvement, with ongoing systematic targeting of civilians by both warring sides and a continuing deterioration of basic services and infrastructure throughout the country.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The ongoing civil war in Sudan between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has led to a worsening humanitarian crisis, with recent reports indicating severe fighting in Khartoum and increasing atrocities as documented by the BBC. UNICEF has raised alarms over the heightened risk of sexual violence affecting millions, while food insecurity and displacement have become critical issues due to the breakdown of essential infrastructure such as sewage systems and hospitals. Since the conflict erupted in April 2023, at least 150,000 casualties have been reported. The UN labels Sudan’s plight as among the worst globally, with concerns about potential national fragmentation. International responses include new sanctions, though apprehension exists regarding the adverse effects of U.S. aid reductions on health services. The situation remains dire, with civilians systematically targeted and essential services rapidly declining.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of the specific facts stated in the summary along with their evaluation:
1. **Fact 1**: The civil war in Sudan is ongoing between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
2. **Fact 2**: The war has led to a worsening humanitarian crisis in Sudan.
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
3. **Fact 3**: There is severe fighting in Khartoum with increasing atrocities, as reported by the BBC.
– **True/False**: True (assuming the BBC indeed reported this, but it aligns with known reports).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
4. **Fact 4**: UNICEF reports a heightened risk of sexual violence affecting millions.
– **True/False**: Likely true (UNICEF is involved in such issues, but precise numbers should be verified).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
5. **Fact 5**: Food insecurity and displacement have become critical issues.
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
6. **Fact 6**: Essential infrastructure such as sewage systems and hospitals have broken down.
– **True/False**: Likely true, although extent can vary.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
7. **Fact 7**: Since the conflict erupted in April 2023, at least 150,000 casualties have been reported.
– **True/False**: This number seems high for reported casualties unless including displaced and affected, needs external verification.
– **Importance**: Important if accurate.
– **Relevance**: True, if accurate.
8. **Fact 8**: The UN labels Sudan’s plight as among the worst globally with concerns about national fragmentation.
– **True/False**: True, based on recent reports.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
9. **Fact 9**: International responses include new sanctions.
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
10. **Fact 10**: There are concerns about the negative effects of U.S. aid reductions on health services.
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Less important (as it’s an indirect factor).
– **Relevance**: True.
11. **Fact 11**: Civilians are being systematically targeted.
– **True/False**: True, based on reports from humanitarian organizations.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
12. **Fact 12**: Essential services are rapidly declining.
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
These facts mostly align accurately with current known reports and provide a backdrop to understanding the severity and nature of conflict in Sudan, but the direct predictive factor for future conflict deaths (e.g., in 2025) is not directly stated or inferable from these facts.
Fact-checked summary:
The ongoing civil war in Sudan between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has led to a worsening humanitarian crisis. Severe fighting, particularly in Khartoum, is marked by increasing atrocities. Critical issues include food insecurity and displacement, while essential services and infrastructure, such as sewage systems and hospitals, are failing. The United Nations has labeled the situation in Sudan as one of the worst globally, further highlighted by international responses, including new sanctions. Civilians are being systematically targeted, exacerbating the decline in essential services. Though these factors reflect the dire situation, they do not directly predict the number of conflict deaths in 2025.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.2] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.3, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.15, “More than 12000”: 0.04] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.1, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.2, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.14] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 10%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 19%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 29%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 28%
* More than 12000: 13%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The civil war in Sudan, primarily between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis characterized by escalating violence, targeted civilian attacks, and a collapsed infrastructure, particularly impacting urban areas like Khartoum. The United Nations has labeled the situation as one of the world’s worst global crises, citing systematic targeting of civilians and the failure of essential services as significant factors for the predicted high casualty rates. Historical patterns of similar conflicts suggest elevated death tolls, which are exacerbated by current conditions. However, contributing factors like potential international intervention, diplomatic engagement, and improved reporting mechanisms could mitigate the crisis, possibly leading to lower actual death counts than anticipated. While the predictions are dire, unexpected events such as peace agreements or effective international aid could alter the trajectory of the conflict, presenting both challenges and opportunities for resolution.
Runtime: 139 seconds. for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Interactive VIEWS dashboard here.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 42%
* between 172 and 205: 37%
* between 206 and 240: 16%
* more than 240: 5%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most Recent Developments (Last 24 Hours):
– The Liberal Party has experienced a recent surge in polls ahead of the expected election call, though they are lagging behind in candidate nominations with only about half their positions filled.
– The Conservative Party has announced they will break from tradition by not allowing media to travel with party leader Pierre Poilievre on campaign planes and buses during the election.
– Former U.S. President Donald Trump made surprising comments stating he “wouldn’t mind” if the Liberals won the Canadian election, saying he’d “rather deal with a liberal than a conservative” in Ottawa.
Background Context:
– A federal election call is expected imminently in Canada, with political parties preparing their campaign strategies and nominating candidates.
– The Conservative Party’s decision to exclude traveling media has raised concerns about press access and transparency during the campaign.
– Climate policy remains a significant campaign issue, with ongoing debate about carbon tax policies and environmental plans, particularly regarding the Conservative Party’s approach after opposing the carbon tax.
The situation appears fluid with rapidly developing changes in polling, party preparations, and campaign strategies as Canada moves closer to an election call. The Liberal surge in polls and Trump’s unexpected comments have added new dimensions to the pre-election landscape.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Ahead of Canada’s anticipated federal election, key developments have emerged, including a recent poll surge for the Liberal Party, although they are still behind in filling candidate positions. The Conservative Party has decided to break tradition by not allowing media on campaign transport with leader Pierre Poilievre, raising transparency concerns. In an unusual twist, former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a preference for dealing with a Liberal government in Ottawa over a Conservative one. Climate policy remains a contentious issue, with debates focusing on carbon tax plans, especially given the Conservative Party’s opposition. The situation remains dynamic as parties continue strategizing in preparation for the looming election call.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with an evaluation of their correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact**: A recent poll surge for the Liberal Party has occurred.
– **Correctness**: True. Poll surges can occur; however, without specific data, external verification is difficult.
– **Importance**: Important. Poll trends can influence perceptions and strategies, impacting the election results.
– **Relevance**: True. Relevant to understanding current electoral dynamics, which can influence seat outcomes.
2. **Fact**: The Liberal Party is behind in filling candidate positions compared to the Conservative Party.
– **Correctness**: True/False. The statement’s correctness would require specific data on candidate positions.
– **Importance**: Important. Having candidates in place is essential for a party’s electoral strategy and ability to win seats.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly relevant, as it impact’s a party’s potential to win multiple ridings.
3. **Fact**: The Conservative Party will not allow media on campaign transport with leader Pierre Poilievre.
– **Correctness**: True/False. This would need specific confirmation but is plausible as a strategy issue.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. While it raises transparency concerns, it doesn’t directly affect seat count.
– **Relevance**: False. Not directly relevant to the election outcome or seat count prediction.
4. **Fact**: Donald Trump expressed a preference for dealing with a Liberal government over a Conservative one in Canada.
– **Correctness**: False. This statement is unlikely and lacks context—such public political endorsements in other countries are uncommon and would need verifiable source.
– **Importance**: Unimportant. This does not affect Canadian elections directly.
– **Relevance**: False. Not relevant to determining seat outcomes.
5. **Fact**: Climate policy and debates on carbon tax plans are contentious issues in the election.
– **Correctness**: True. Climate policy frequently features in Canadian elections and can sway voters.
– **Importance**: Important. This could impact voter decisions, thereby affecting electoral outcomes.
– **Relevance**: True. The stance on climate change policies can influence voter support and thus impact seat counts.
6. **Fact**: The Conservative Party opposes carbon tax plans.
– **Correctness**: True. Traditionally, the Conservative Party in Canada has opposed carbon taxes.
– **Importance**: Important. This stance could influence voter demographics and regional support.
– **Relevance**: True. Relevant because party policy positions can affect voter behavior, impacting seat outcomes.
7. **Fact**: Parties are strategizing in preparation for the upcoming election.
– **Correctness**: True. Political parties typically strategize before elections.
– **Importance**: Important. Strategy impacts campaign effectiveness, potentially influencing results.
– **Relevance**: True. Relevant to election outcomes as it shapes a party’s campaign success.
The key facts relevant to the question seek to understand the context of the race, public perception shifts, and party readiness—all influencing the probable seat count outcome.
Fact-checked summary:
The upcoming Canadian federal parliamentary election features several important factors that could influence the Conservative Party’s seat count. A recent poll surge for the Liberal Party reflects shifting public perceptions and could impact the election results. While parties strategizing is a common preparatory step that significantly affects campaign success and potential election outcomes, climate policy—with a specific focus on carbon tax debates—remains a contentious issue. The Conservative Party traditionally opposes carbon tax plans, a stance that could affect voter demographics and regional support, thereby influencing seat outcomes. Understanding these dynamics is crucial, as they shape the context of the race and the potential number of seats the Conservative Party might secure.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.5, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 45%
* between 172 and 205: 30%
* between 206 and 240: 20%
* more than 240: 5%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various AIs suggest that while current polling trends and historical patterns point towards a challenging path for the Conservative Party in securing more than 200 seats in upcoming Canadian elections, there are multiple factors at play. Historical data indicates that winning a majority is rare in such divisive political landscapes, and recent surges in Liberal support suggest potential difficulties for the Conservatives, particularly given their unpopular stance on carbon taxes in urban and environmentally conscious areas. However, these predictions could be confounded by several factors including sudden shifts in public opinion, potential inaccuracies in polling data, regional variations in support, and unforeseen political events or scandals. The short timeframe to the elections also limits the potential for significant strategy changes or public perception shifts, yet surprises remain possible, especially if voter turnout favors the Conservatives or if their campaign strategy adapts effectively in response to emerging challenges.
All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
