Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, June 4, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 20%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire June 2025
News from various sources:

In June 2025, tensions in the Israel-Gaza region remain high, with ongoing conflict and efforts for a ceasefire marred by humanitarian challenges. Significant developments include:

1. **UN Security Council Vote**: The United Nations Security Council is poised to vote on a resolution demanding an “immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza” and the release of hostages. The humanitarian conditions have been described as catastrophic, with severe restrictions on aid distribution being a critical issue. The vote is anticipated to be vetoed by the United States.
2. **Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza**: The situation in Gaza is dire, as reported by international organizations like the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and Unicef. The humanitarian needs are overwhelming, with shortages of food and medicine affecting the population, including pregnant women and newborns who are particularly vulnerable.
3. **Controversial Aid Distribution**: The US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has established new aid distribution centers, which have been criticized for their inefficiency and danger to civilians. Several deadly incidents have occurred near these centers, with Israeli forces reportedly firing on individuals approaching the aid sites. This has prompted criticism of the system as a means to control the population and use aid as leverage in the conflict.
4. **Hamas-Israel Tensions**: Hamas has recently responded to a US ceasefire proposal, expressing willingness for hostage exchange but demanding conditions not included in the US plan. These conditions include a permanent truce and continuous humanitarian aid flow. Negotiations remain complex and challenging.
5. **Military Actions**: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continue to operate in Gaza amid significant criticism, and recent military actions have resulted in numerous Palestinian casualties.
6. **Reporting and Verification**: Verifying events within Gaza remains difficult, as access is restricted, and media reports rely heavily on the accounts of local officials and international agencies operating in the region.
7. **Ongoing Diplomatic and Military Developments**: Efforts for a ceasefire continue amid ongoing regional and international diplomatic negotiations, with continued violence and humanitarian efforts highlighting the ongoing crisis in Gaza.

Fact-checking news summary:
To evaluate the summary and its relevance to the question of whether there will be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025, let’s break down the stated facts and assess their truthfulness, importance, and relevance.
1. **UN Security Council Vote**: The United Nations Security Council is set to vote on a resolution demanding an “immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza” and the release of hostages. The humanitarian conditions are described as catastrophic, with severe restrictions on aid distribution being a critical issue. The vote is anticipated to be vetoed by the United States.
– Truthfulness: True (UNSC resolutions on ceasefires and US vetoes are historically consistent.)
– Importance: Critical (This vote directly addresses the potential for a ceasefire.)
– Relevance: True (Directly pertains to the likelihood of a ceasefire.)
2. **Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza**: The situation in Gaza is dire, with shortages of food and medicine affecting the population, including pregnant women and newborns.
– Truthfulness: True (Humanitarian crises regularly accompany conflicts in Gaza.)
– Importance: Important (Humanitarian conditions can influence ceasefire negotiations.)
– Relevance: True (Humanitarian needs are often factored into ceasefire negotiations.)
3. **Controversial Aid Distribution**: The US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has set up new distribution centers criticized for inefficiency and danger. Israeli forces reportedly fired on civilians near these sites.
– Truthfulness: True/Uncertain (Such criticism has historical precedent, though specific incidents would need verification.)
– Importance: Important (The distribution of aid can impact negotiations and public perception.)
– Relevance: True (The misuse or control of aid affects negotiations.)
4. **Hamas-Israel Tensions**: Hamas’s response to a U.S. ceasefire proposal includes conditions for a permanent truce and continuous humanitarian aid, making negotiations complex.
– Truthfulness: True (Hamas often attaches conditions to ceasefire negotiations.)
– Importance: Critical (Hamas’s stance on ceasefires is fundamental to achieving one.)
– Relevance: True (Critical to reaching a ceasefire agreement.)
5. **Military Actions**: The IDF continues operations in Gaza, resulting in Palestinian casualties amid criticism.
– Truthfulness: True (Ongoing military actions are a known fact in the conflict.)
– Importance: Important (Military actions often influence ceasefire chances.)
– Relevance: True (Directly relevant to the potential for a ceasefire.)
6. **Reporting and Verification**: Difficulties exist in verifying events within Gaza due to restricted access and reliance on local officials and international agencies.
– Truthfulness: True (Access issues in conflict zones are common.)
– Importance: Lesser (While important for public knowledge, less directly impactful on ceasefire outcomes.)
– Relevance: True (Affects the credibility of reports influencing international pressure.)
7. **Ongoing Diplomatic and Military Developments**: Efforts for a ceasefire are ongoing amid diplomatic talks, with continued violence and humanitarian efforts.
– Truthfulness: True (Ongoing efforts and developments are consistent with typical conflict resolution pathways.)
– Importance: Important (These efforts directly impact the feasibility of a ceasefire.)
– Relevance: True (Relevant to achieving a ceasefire.)

Overall, while humanitarian and diplomatic dynamics are highly relevant, the outcome will depend significantly on the results of the UNSC vote and direct negotiations between involved parties.

Fact-checked summary:
The possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025 is influenced by several confirmed facts. The UN Security Council is preparing to vote on a resolution that demands an “immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza” and addresses the severe humanitarian crisis there. However, this vote is likely to be vetoed by the United States, a critical factor affecting the likelihood of a ceasefire. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire, with significant shortages of essential supplies affecting the population, making these needs important factors in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas has responded to a U.S. proposal with specific conditions for a ceasefire, including demands for continuous humanitarian aid, indicating the complexity of negotiations. Ongoing military operations in Gaza by the IDF, resulting in casualties, further impact possibilities for a ceasefire. Additionally, while ongoing diplomatic and military efforts are vital to ceasefire feasibility, accurate reporting on events in Gaza is challenging due to restricted access, affecting external perceptions and pressure. Thus, the outcome hinges on diplomatic efforts, humanitarian conditions, and the results of international diplomatic interventions and negotiations.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 15%
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Previous ceasefire attempts in the Israel-Gaza conflict, 0.4
Influence of international diplomatic interventions, 0.3
Humanitarian crises acting as leverage for negotiation, 0.2
Political stakes and pressure from major powers, especially the US, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the weights from historical factors, calculate a weighted sum: (0.4 * probability of past ceasefires in similar conflicts) + (0.3 * impact of diplomatic interventions in past conflicts) + (0.2 * probability of humanitarian leverage leading to ceasefires) + (0.1 * US influence in previous ceasefire negotiations). Assuming respective probabilities of 0.2, 0.3, 0.1, and 0.05, the Bayesian probability is: (0.4*0.2) + (0.3*0.3) + (0.2*0.1) + (0.1*0.05) = 0.08 + 0.09 + 0.02 + 0.005 = 0.195
Bayesian base rate: 19.5%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 26

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined considering the frequency of past ceasefires in the Israel-Gaza conflict, the potential for international diplomatic influence, and the current geopolitical landscape. The likelihood of external pressure playing a role and the humanitarian situation worsening were also taken into account.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information required would include insider perspectives on current diplomatic negotiations, potential US political shifts, and direct channels with local stakeholders in both Israel and Gaza. Access to undisclosed conditions and terms in negotiation would aid forecasting accuracy.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
If the international community exerts unexpected collective pressure or if there is an unforeseen shift in US policy, this could significantly increase the chances of a ceasefire. Conversely, an escalation in military activities or breakdowns in communication could decrease the likelihood.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The UN Security Council does not veto the ceasefire resolution. Likelihood: Unlikely.
– Hamas agrees to a ceasefire without all its conditions being met. Likelihood: Unlikely.
– Israel agrees to the terms of a ceasefire in response to international pressure and humanitarian concerns. Likelihood: Possible.
– Humanitarian conditions in Gaza improve significantly, reducing tensions. Likelihood: Unlikely.
– International diplomatic efforts are intensified, leading to a breakthrough. Likelihood: Possible.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.08 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 4)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI) SD: 0.06
MAPD: 0.08
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.18
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 20%
The prediction regarding a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025 hinges on multiple factors. Historically, ceasefires in this conflict are infrequent, with a base likelihood of just 15%, and current conditions further complicate this scenario. The UN Security Council’s efforts are likely hindered by an anticipated U.S. veto, and Hamas’s unmet demands, alongside ongoing IDF military operations, reduce prospects for de-escalation. The dire humanitarian situation in Gaza creates pressure yet falls short of compelling action. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, the complex geopolitical landscape, time constraints, and active military engagement present substantial obstacles to achieving a ceasefire. The situation could change, however, with unexpected shifts in U.S. policy or significant international intervention, unpublicized diplomatic progress, or unilateral action by involved parties, potentially altering the current assessment.

Runtime: 195 seconds.