Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 20%
This question is a side competition with the RAND Forecasting Initiative’s forecasting of this question. Their consensus forecast today—>
10–12 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Pakistan India hostilities 2025
News from various sources:
In May 2025, hostilities between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan led to significant military engagement. The conflict was sparked by a terrorist attack on April 22 at the Pahalgam tourist resort in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 people. This incident led to heightened tensions and a series of cross-border military actions.
During the conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed at a White House dinner with Republican lawmakers that five planes had been shot down, though he did not specify whether they were Indian or Pakistani jets. According to different reports, Pakistan claimed it had downed five to six Indian planes, including several Rafales, while India switched tactics after initial losses and claimed it had downed a few Pakistani planes. Islamabad denied any losses of its planes but acknowledged that its air bases were hit.
The hostilities saw fighter jets, missiles, drones, and artillery attacks exchanged between the two countries until a ceasefire was brokered, which Trump credited to U.S. intervention, although India disputed any third-party mediation. The ceasefire was announced on May 10, reportedly after the U.S. held talks with both nations.
Political reactions included Donald Trump emphasizing the prevention of a larger-scale war, insisting it was resolved through potential trade negotiations, whereas India maintained the position that issues between New Delhi and Islamabad must be settled bilaterally without external involvement. Meanwhile, figures such as Indian politician Abhishek Banerjee called for a more confrontational approach towards Pakistan, emphasizing military action over diplomatic or sportive engagements.Overall, the hostilities underscored the volatile and complex nature of Indo-Pakistani relations, particularly in the contested Kashmir region, which remains a significant flashpoint for both countries.
Fact-checking news summary:
1. **Fact:** In May 2025, hostilities between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan led to significant military engagement.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
2. **Fact:** The conflict was sparked by a terrorist attack on April 22 at the Pahalgam tourist resort in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 people.
– **Correctness:** True (Assuming hypothetical future scenario based on internal consistency)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
3. **Fact:** U.S. President Donald Trump claimed at a White House dinner with Republican lawmakers that five planes had been shot down, though he did not specify whether they were Indian or Pakistani jets.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
4. **Fact:** Pakistan claimed it had downed five to six Indian planes, including several Rafales.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
5. **Fact:** India switched tactics after initial losses and claimed it had downed a few Pakistani planes.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
6. **Fact:** Islamabad denied any losses of its planes but acknowledged that its air bases were hit.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
7. **Fact:** The hostilities saw fighter jets, missiles, drones, and artillery attacks exchanged between the two countries until a ceasefire was brokered.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevance:** True
8. **Fact:** Trump credited the ceasefire to U.S. intervention, although India disputed any third-party mediation.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
9. **Fact:** The ceasefire was announced on May 10, reportedly after the U.S. held talks with both nations.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
10. **Fact:** Donald Trump emphasized the prevention of a larger-scale war, insisting it was resolved through potential trade negotiations.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** True
11. **Fact:** India maintained the position that issues between New Delhi and Islamabad must be settled bilaterally without external involvement.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** True
12. **Fact:** Indian politician Abhishek Banerjee called for a more confrontational approach towards Pakistan.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** True
13. **Fact:** The hostilities underscored the volatile and complex nature of Indo-Pakistani relations, particularly in the contested Kashmir region.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
Facts relevant to the question primarily involve the military engagement and casualties but do not provide specific numbers of casualties or deaths, which are critical for answering the original question.
Fact-checked summary:
In May 2025, hostilities between India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed states, resulted in significant military engagement, marked by fighter jets, missiles, drones, and artillery attacks until a ceasefire was brokered on May 10. The conflict was initially triggered by a terrorist attack on April 22 at the Pahalgam tourist resort in Indian-administered Kashmir, causing 26 deaths. Both nations claimed several aerial victories: Pakistan asserted it downed five to six Indian planes, including Rafales, while India claimed it had downed a few Pakistani aircraft. Despite these claims, Islamabad denied any losses of its planes but admitted that its air bases were targeted. The complexity and volatility of Indo-Pakistani relations were highlighted during these hostilities, emphasizing the critical nature of the contested Kashmir region. However, specific casualty figures, crucial to the original question, were not provided.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.6 of the ceasefire holding.
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.40.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors, we assume a prior of 0.5 likelihood of the ceasefire holding. Historical ceasefire durability warrants an increase by a factor of 1.2, diplomatic efforts add a small increase by a factor of 1.1. The resulting Bayesian probability is 0.5 * 1.2 * 1.1 = 0.66.
Bayesian base rate: 0.66
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 90
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was derived considering the historical frequency of temporary hostilities between India and Pakistan de-escalating without further significant conflict. The May 2025 conflict, while serious, followed a familiar pattern of escalation and rapid diplomatic negotiation resulting in a ceasefire.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional specific intelligence reports, expert analyses on Indo-Pakistani relations, and the political climate in both countries would be useful. Monitoring ongoing diplomatic exchanges is also crucial.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
A new major terrorist attack, political instability in either country, or external pressures, like international sanctions or support for military actions, could drastically change the situation.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The ceasefire between India and Pakistan remains in effect. (Likely)
– No further major provocations or terrorist attacks occur that could escalate tensions. (Moderately likely)
– Diplomatic efforts continue at a satisfactory pace to maintain peace. (Moderately likely)
– Both India and Pakistan show restraint in military engagements over Kashmir. (Moderately likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (Error: Mistral is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.6 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.15
MAPD: 0
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 1
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 2
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 20%
The AIs generally agree that the likelihood of renewed major hostilities between India and Pakistan within the two-month timeframe is low due to the recent successful ceasefire, historical patterns of cooling periods following conflicts, and significant international diplomatic pressure. Both nations being nuclear-armed adds an additional layer of restraint. However, they acknowledge the underlying tensions, particularly over Kashmir, and note several potential factors that could provoke further conflict. These include fragile ceasefire agreements, intelligence or communication failures, political pressures, terrorist activities, and under-reported skirmishes. The casualty threshold of 100 uniformed individuals might be reached through unexpected incidents or miscalculations, highlighting the ongoing risks inherent in the Indo-Pakistani relationship.
Runtime: 245 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy’s bots —>
Source: https://kashmir.liveuamap.com/
