India/Pakistan military clash? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman reports, May 5, 2025

When will there be an attack by India’s military on Pakistan or regions controlled by Pakistan?

Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted May 5:
* Before May 15: 5%
* After May 15 but before May 31: 15%
* Not until after May 31: 80%

Update: May 6, “Indian Armed forces carry out Operation Sindoor against 9 terror infrastructure in Pakistan, PoK,” followed quickly by “Indian army’s brigade HQ hit as Pakistan retaliates to India’s missile attack.”

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: India Pakistan military tensions.
Results from around the web: {think}

Okay, let’s tackle this query step by step. The user wants current web results on India-Pakistan military tensions, including summaries, relevant data tables, and sources. First, I’ll check the provided search results to see which ones are relevant.

Search result [1] is a Time article from May 3, 2025, discussing the Pahalgam attack and the potential for escalation. That’s recent and directly related.

[2] is a YouTube video from May 4 about nuclear tensions, mentioning India’s defenses.

[3] is a Wikipedia page on the 2025 standoff, giving a detailed overview of the incident and diplomatic actions.

[4] is a CFR tracker updated April 30, 2025, providing historical context and recent developments.

Next, the user wants tables of relevant data. From [3], there’s a table structure in the Wikipedia page about the standoff, including belligerents, commanders, units, and casualties. I can format that into a Markdown table. Also, [4] mentions historical conflicts like the 1947-48 war, 1965 war, 1971 war, and the Simla Agreement. Another table summarizing these events would be helpful.

The user also requested a time series table with statistical measures. However, the search results don’t provide numerical data over periods, so I can’t create that. I’ll note that in the answer.

Finally, list the URLs used. The relevant sources are [1], [2], [3], and [4]. Make sure each part of the summary cites the sources correctly. The tables should be formatted properly, and the conclusion should include the URLs without markdown links.

Summary: Recent India-Pakistan military tensions have escalated following the April 2025 Pahalgam terrorist attack in Kashmir, with both nations engaging in border skirmishes, diplomatic expulsions, and treaty suspensions[1][3][4].

Below is a structured summary of key developments and historical data:
## Key Developments (April–May 2025)
– **Pahalgam attack (23 April):** Terrorists killed 27 tourists (25 Hindus, 1 Christian, 1 Muslim) in Jammu and Kashmir. The Resistance Front (TRF) claimed responsibility[3][4].
– **Military actions:** Cross-border shelling along the Line of Control began on 24 April, marking the most severe clashes since 2019[3][4].

– **Diplomatic measures:**
– India expelled Pakistani diplomats, suspended visas, closed borders, and withdrew from the Indus Waters Treaty[3].
– Pakistan retaliated with trade restrictions, airspace closures, and suspension of the Shimla Agreement[3].

– **Nuclear posturing:** India deployed S-400 missile systems and nuclear submarines, while analysts warn of catastrophic risks if Pakistan initiates nuclear strikes[2][3].

*Note:* No time-series data with statistical measures (mean, median, etc.) is available in the sources for quantitative analysis.

## Sources Cited
1. https://time.com/7282263/india-pakistan-crisis-pahalgam-attack/
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2kyr34b_8U
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_standoff
4. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan
The situation remains volatile, with both nuclear-armed nations maintaining high alert levels. Historical precedents suggest direct war is unlikely, but miscalculations could trigger rapid escalation[1][4].

OpenAI gives a base rate of probability (Carolyn’s note: Open AI failed to return a value. See the Bayesian base rate below.)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.40.20.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
If historical factors suggest 60% probability for diplomatic interventions working and current tensions suggest 30% chance without interventions, Bayesian adjustment gives: (0.3 * 0.4 + 0.6 * 0.7) / (0.4 + 0.6) = 0.42
Bayesian base rate: 0.42
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 27 (Carolyn’s note: counting today, May 5, this is correct.)

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The history of India-Pakistan conflicts shows fluctuating tensions with rare large-scale wars since the establishment of nuclear deterrence. Diplomatic interventions have occasionally succeeded in the past, leading to temporary de-escalations.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional insider information on diplomatic meetings, any back-channel communications, and insights into military strategic plans would help improve forecast accuracy.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Current heightened tensions and recent attacks increase the possibility of prolonged conflict, making an early resolution uncertain. Also, current geopolitical dynamics could influence outcomes unpredictably.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– De-escalation of military tensions between India and Pakistan before May 15 – Unlikely
– Significant diplomatic interventions leading to a reduction in hostilities before May 15 – Possible

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Before May 15”: 0.15, “After May 15 but before May 31”: 0.25, “Not until after May 31”: 0.6] – confidence: 5)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Before May 15”: 0.05, “After May 15 but before May 31”: 0.15, “Not until after May 31”: 0.8] – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Before May 15”: 0.05, “After May 15 but before May 31”: 0.1, “Not until after May 31”: 0.85] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
MAPD: Avg: 0.11111111111111, Max: 0.16666666666667
# LLM responses: 3

Model value:
* Before May 15: 5%
* After May 15 but before May 31: 15%
* Not until after May 31: 80%

The various AIs analyze the situation between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack, noting that while current tensions are high, large-scale conflict remains unlikely in the near term due to historical patterns of nuclear deterrence preventing major conflicts. They highlight the importance of diplomatic interventions, which have historically de-escalated tensions. The immediate likelihood of significant military conflict before mid-May is low, though risks may increase slightly after May 15 as diplomatic efforts progress. However, the potential for escalation could arise due to unexpected factors such as sudden terrorist attacks, nuclear posturing miscalculations, internal political pressures, or unforeseen geopolitical circumstances. Additionally, intelligence gaps and unpredictable political decisions or international interventions could challenge current predictions.

Runtime: 68 seconds.