Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast, May 21, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025?

Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts 15%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

Perplexity response:
{think}

Okay, so I need to figure out if there will be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in May 2025. Let me start by looking at the search results provided.

First, result [1] from Times of Israel on May 19, 2025, talks about a potential ceasefire deal where Israel and Hamas are considering releasing hostages and prisoners. It mentions a two-month truce, but Hamas denied that an agreement was reached. They want all hostages released in one phase with international guarantees. Also, there’s a mention of US pressure through proposals by Steve Witkoff.

Result [3] from Foreign Policy on the same date, May 19, 2025, discusses Trump’s possible intentions in Gaza, mentioning that the March ceasefire rupture could lead to something. But it’s more about Trump’s approach than current negotiations.

Result [4] from Wikipedia updated on May 21, 2025, includes a ceasefire effective in January 2025 and historical context about Hamas’s hudna proposals. It explains that Hamas has proposed long-term truces tied to Israeli withdrawal and prisoner releases.

Result [5] from Tehran Times, also dated May 19, 2025, mentions Hamas denying Israel’s claim about Mohammad Sinwar’s death and criticizing Israeli attacks. It states Israel’s goal is to eradicate Hamas, which might affect ceasefire chances.

Other results like [2] from the US State Department on May 15, 2025, don’t add much info about current negotiations.

Result [1] is the most recent and detailed, indicating ongoing discussions but without a confirmed agreement. Hamas is pushing for all hostages released at once, while Israel’s proposal is for a phased release. US involvement is present, but Hamas denies any deal. The latest info is from May 19, 2025, with no confirmation of a ceasefire yet. The Wikipedia entry mentions a January 2025 ceasefire, but the current status isn’t clear. So, as of May 19, there’s no declared ceasefire, but talks are ongoing with proposals on the table. The answer would need to reflect that while discussions are happening, no formal ceasefire has been announced in May 2025.

### Recent Developments on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Negotiations (May 2025)
**1. [Times of Israel Report] (https://www.timesofisrael.com) (May 19, 2025)**
Israel and Hamas are reportedly negotiating a hostage-ceasefire deal involving the release of ~10 hostages (half of those held) in exchange for a 45-60 day truce and the release of 300 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas denied agreeing to the proposal, insisting on releasing all hostages at once with international guarantees. US envoy Steve Witkoff is pushing a modified proposal to link the temporary ceasefire to potential permanent terms[1].
**2. [Foreign Policy Analysis] (https://foreignpolicy.com) (May 19, 2025)**
Discusses Trump’s potential policy shifts regarding Gaza but focuses more on broader strategic implications rather than current ceasefire prospects. Mentions the March ceasefire rupture as a critical point but lacks actionable updates for May 2025[3].
**3. [State Department Briefing] (https://www.state.gov) (May 15, 2025)**
No substantive information on ceasefire negotiations. Questions about US-led humanitarian discussions were deflected[2].
**4. [Wikipedia Hamas Page] (https://en.wikipedia.org) (May 21, 2025)**
Notes a ceasefire took effect in January 2025 and details Hamas’s historical “hudna” (long-term truce) proposals requiring Israeli withdrawal and prisoner releases. No May 2025 updates provided[4].
**5. [Tehran Times] (https://www.tehrantimes.com) (May 19, 2025)**
Hamas denies Israel’s claims about targeting Mohammad Sinwar, affirming continued resistance. Highlights Israel’s stated goal of “eradicating” Hamas, suggesting ongoing hostilities[5].
—
### Key Takeaways
– **Current Status (May 19, 2025):** No ceasefire declared. Proposals exist, but Hamas rejects partial hostage releases, demanding full liberation upfront[1][4].
– **US Involvement:** Trump’s envoy Witkoff is actively mediating, proposing phased releases and temporary truces with pathways to permanence[1].
– **Hamas’s Stance:** Reiterates readiness for an all-hostage release with international guarantees to end the war, not temporary pauses[1][5].
– **Context:** January 2025 ceasefire mentioned in historical records, but current talks lack formal agreement[4].

No verified ceasefire declaration has been announced as of May 21, 2025. Negotiations remain uncertain, with Hamas rejecting partial concessions and Israel reportedly pushing limited terms[1][5].

AskNews Deep Search Response:
Based on the latest developments up to May 21, 2025, the likelihood of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025 remains uncertain, with significant obstacles persisting:

### **Key Developments and Sources**
1. **Ongoing U.S.-Hamas Talks via Intermediary (May 21)**:
– The U.S. is negotiating indirectly with Hamas through Bishara Bahbah, an American-Palestinian intermediary in Doha [1][2][3]. While the U.S. seeks to bypass Qatar and Egypt for direct influence, experts like Dennis Ross note skepticism due to Bahbah’s limited experience and Hamas’s Gaza-based leadership [1][3].
– President Trump has grown “irritated” by stalled progress, with concerns that Netanyahu is unwilling to compromise [1][2][3].

2. **Deadlocked Negotiations (May 20–21)**:
– Qatar’s Foreign Minister cited “deep-rooted disagreements” between Israel and Hamas, with no bridging of gaps despite international pressure [4][8].
– Netanyahu threatened to withdraw Israel’s delegation from Doha if no progress occurs, though talks continue under U.S. pressure [6][7]. A proposed framework includes a 1–2 month ceasefire and prisoner swap, but Hamas insists on a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal, which Netanyahu rejects [7][11].

3. **Escalating Military Operations (May 18–19)**:
– Israel launched “Operation Chariots of Gideon,” intensifying airstrikes and ground assaults in Gaza, resulting in over 100 Palestinian deaths in 72 hours [13][18][19]. Humanitarian conditions are dire, with the UN warning of famine for 2.1 million Gazans [18][20].
– Hamas claims this escalation undermines talks, but Israel argues military pressure is necessary to force concessions [18][21].

4. **International Pressure and Stances**:
– The EU and UK have suspended trade talks with Israel and imposed sanctions over its Gaza actions [4][5]. The U.S. backs Israel’s security demands but presses for a deal, with Trump warning Netanyahu of potential abandonment if talks fail [8][35].
– Hamas insists on guarantees for a permanent ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and reconstruction aid [11][22].

### **Critical Obstacles** – **Netanyahu’s Reluctance**: Israel’s PM has resisted committing to a full ceasefire, demanding Hamas’s disarmament and leadership exile instead [14][15][35].
– **Hamas’s Demands**: The group refuses partial deals, linking hostage releases to a comprehensive resolution [22][25].
– **Timeline Constraints**: With only days remaining in May and no breakthrough in recent talks, prospects for rapid resolution appear slim.

### **Expert Opinions**
– Dennis Ross (Former U.S. Envoy): Skeptical of the new U.S.-Hamas channel, calling it a sign of “desperation or confusion” [1][2].
– Aaron David Miller (Carnegie Endowment): Notes the U.S. lacks leverage to force a deal and highlights Netanyahu’s political motivations to prolong the war [3][7].

### **Conclusion**
While negotiations persist, the combination of military escalation, mutual distrust, and unresolved demands reduces the likelihood of a ceasefire being finalized before May 31, 2025. Any agreement would require sudden concessions from either side, which current reporting does not indicate.

GPT News Summary:
As of May 21, 2025, the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the remaining days of May appears uncertain, with several key developments informing the current situation.

1. **Military Escalation and Standoff**:
– Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced an intensified military operation in Gaza on May 19, 2025, aiming for a “complete victory” and the destruction of Hamas (Oriental Daily). The Israeli military resumed large-scale operations, reportedly resulting in over 53,486 deaths since the start of the conflict in October 2023.
– Netanyahu has declared intentions to “take control of all” of the Gaza Strip (LaRep, May 19, 2025), emphasizing continued military efforts, although humanitarian aid blockades have been partially lifted (WHO).

2. **Ceasefire Negotiation Stalemate**:
– Despite mediation efforts in Doha involving Egypt, Qatar, and the US, the negotiations have stalled, with Israel considering withdrawing its delegation (Al Jazeera, May 19, 2025). The talks have not progressed due to disagreements over key conditions, such as disarming Hamas factions and the release of hostages (Oriental Daily).

3. **International Pressure for Ceasefire**:
– Global calls for a ceasefire are intensifying, with countries like Singapore, France, the UK, and Canada demanding an immediate halt to hostilities and humanitarian aid access (Daily Mail, May 20, 2025).
– These countries have criticized Israel’s military actions and threatened to impose further sanctions if operations do not cease (Noticias Radio Irapuato, May 19, 2025).

4. **Netanyahu’s Conditional Offer**:
– Netanyahu’s conditions for a ceasefire include the complete release of hostages, disarmament of Hamas, and exile of its leaders, which Hamas has rejected (Dagospia, May 20, 2025).
– A diplomatic source noted that Israel proposed releasing half of the living captives in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire, a proposal not yet accepted (QOSHE).

5. **Humanitarian Crisis and Risk of Escalation**:
– The UN has issued dire warnings about the humanitarian situation, predicting potential mass casualties among children without immediate aid intervention (Dagospia).
– Denis Charbit, a political scientist, warned of Israel’s diplomatic isolation due to its military stance, highlighting the grave situation (RFI, May 19, 2025).

Overall, while there is significant international pressure and some diplomatic movements, the entrenched positions of both Israel and Hamas, along with ongoing military actions, suggest a low likelihood of a ceasefire being declared before the end of May 2025.

All predictions: [4, 7, 8, 12, 12, 12, 12, 14, 15, 17, 18]
Filtered predictions: [8, 12, 12, 12, 12, 14, 15]

Median reasoning:
Let me analyze this systematically:
1. Timeline Analysis:
– Today is May 21, 2025
– Resolution date is June 1, 2025
– Only 10 days remain for a ceasefire to be declared
– This very short timeline significantly reduces probability
2. Current Situation:
– Active military operations ongoing with “Operation Chariots of Gideon”
– Netanyahu threatening to withdraw negotiation team
– Hamas rejecting partial deals
– US mediator efforts showing limited progress
– No imminent breakthrough indicated
3. Historical Context:
– Previous ceasefires typically required weeks/months of negotiation
– January 2025 ceasefire mentioned, but currently broken
– Past ceasefires often followed major military operations or significant diplomatic breakthroughs
– Current situation lacks clear indicators of either
4. Key Obstacles:
– Netanyahu’s hard stance on complete Hamas dismantlement
– Hamas demanding full hostage release and permanent solution
– Military escalation ongoing
– Significant gap between positions
– No major mediator breakthrough
5. Positive Factors:
– Active US involvement
– International pressure mounting
– Humanitarian crisis creating urgency
– Ongoing negotiations, albeit stalled
6. Timeline Distribution Analysis:
– Next 10 days: 12% (given current trajectory)
– Next 30 days: 25% (allowing more negotiation time)
– Next 90 days: 45% (historical timeframe for resolution)
7. Risk Adjustments:
– Very short timeframe (negative)
– Current military escalation (negative)
– Entrenched positions (negative)
– Active negotiations (slight positive)
– International pressure (slight positive)

Given the extremely short timeframe (10 days), ongoing military operations, and wide gap in positions, coupled with the typical time required for ceasefire negotiations, I assess a low probability of a ceasefire being declared by May 31, 2025. While negotiations are ongoing and international pressure is mounting, the combination of Netanyahu’s hardline stance, Hamas’s comprehensive demands, and the current military escalation make a resolution within this short window unlikely. Historical patterns suggest ceasefires typically require longer negotiation periods, and current indicators don’t suggest an imminent breakthrough.

Adjusting for my typical overconfidence and the short timeline, I’m rating this as a low probability event.

Probability: 12%