Question: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025?
Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Based on all available evidence, I estimate the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025 at:
Probability: 15%
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s start by understanding the user’s question. They want to know if there will be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in May 2025. The background mentions looking for recent news and authoritative sources.
First, I need to go through the provided search results to gather information. Let’s check each source.
Result [1] from Times of Israel, dated May 6, 2025, says Hamas has stated there’s no point in further truce talks if Israel continues their “hunger war.” The IDF is planning an intensified operation, Operation Gideon’s Chariots, aiming to defeat Hamas and return hostages. China and the UN have expressed concerns. This suggests tensions are escalating, not easing.
Result [2] from Axios, May 5, 2025, mentions Israel’s plan to occupy Gaza if no deal is reached by Trump’s visit (May 15). They want a partial deal for a 45-60 day ceasefire in exchange for hostages. Hamas is asking for a comprehensive deal. The displacement plan is severe, and international reaction is negative. This indicates internal Israeli willingness but Hamas resistance.
Result [3] is a YouTube video summary from CNA, May 6, 2025, reinforcing Hamas’s rejection of talks and Israel’s planned offensive. The UN is alarmed, again pointing to no ceasefire.
Result [4] is a State Department briefing from May 1, 2025, but the text doesn’t mention a specific U.S. proposal detail. It might refer to Egypt receiving a proposal, but the snippet is cut off.
Result [5] from Wikipedia, updated May 5, 2025, notes a ceasefire broke in March 2025 after Israel resumed shelling. Hamas’s historical truce offers (hudna) are mentioned, but recent context from 2025 shows the current truce already failed.
Putting this together, recent articles (May 5-6) show Hamas rejecting talks due to Israel’s actions, Israel planning a major offensive by May 15 if no deal, and international condemnation. Previous ceasefire broke in March. The U.S. (via State) might have a proposal, but details are unclear. Given the deadlines and Israel’s ultimatum tied to Trump’s visit, the likelihood of a May ceasefire seems low, especially with Hamas’s refusal and Israel’s military plans.
**Recent Developments in Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Prospects**
### **Key Sources (Most Recent First)**
1. **[Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-says-no-point-in-further-gaza-truce-talks-if-israel-continues-hunger-war/)** (May 6, 2025)
– Hamas rejects further truce talks, citing Israel’s “hunger war.”
– Israel’s IDF plans Operation Gideon’s Chariots to “conquer Gaza,” displace civilians, and destroy Hamas infrastructure[1].
– China and the UN condemn Israel’s actions, warning of humanitarian crises[1].
2. **[Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/05/israel-gaza-destroy-trump-deal)** (May 5, 2025)
– Israel’s Security Cabinet approved a Gaza reoccupation plan if no deal reached by May 15 (aligning with Trump’s visit).
– Proposes a 45–60 day ceasefire for hostage release, but Hamas demands a comprehensive deal.
– Displacement plans involve forcing 2 million Palestinians into a “humanitarian zone” or “voluntarily” relocating[2].
3. **[YouTube (CNA)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66WdDuVJjyg)** (May 6, 2025)
– Hamas declares talks pointless, accusing Israel of war crimes.
– IDF aims to “conquer Gaza” and hold territory until Hamas is defeated.
– UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urges an immediate ceasefire and hostage release[3].
4. **[State Department Briefing](https://www.state.gov/?post_type=state_briefing&%3Bp=92333)** (May 1, 2025)
– Mentions U.S. proposals for a Gaza ceasefire sent to Egypt, but details are unclear[4].
5. **[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas)** (Updated May 5, 2025)
– Notes the March 2025 ceasefire breakdown after Israel resumed hostilities.
– Historical context on Hamas’s *hudna* (temporary truce) offers, but current leadership rejects negotiations[5].
—
### **Analysis of May 2025 Ceasefire Likelihood**
– **Israel’s Ultimatum**: A partial ceasefire deal could emerge if hostage releases are secured before May 15, but Israel’s planned ground offensive (Operation Gideon’s Chariots) suggests skepticism about negotiations[1][2].
– **Hamas’s Stance**: Explicit rejection of talks under current conditions, framing Israel’s actions as genocidal[1][3].
– **International Pressure**: China and the UN oppose Israel’s military escalation, but no enforceable multilateral agreement is evident[1][3].
– **U.S. Role**: No active U.S. mediation; Trump’s visit is framed as a deadline for Israeli action rather than a diplomatic catalyst[2].
**Conclusion**: Recent developments heavily favor continued military escalation over a ceasefire in May 2025. Israel’s deadline and Hamas’s refusal diminish prospects, even if limited hostage-related deals emerge.
AskNews Deep Usage:
prompt_tokens=20566 completion_tokens=2353 total_tokens=0
AskNews Deep Search Response:
**Citations and Summaries**
1. **[1] Mediators insist that US rather than Israel controls aid delivery to Gaza (TASS, May 7, 2025)**
Qatari and Egyptian mediators demand the U.S. oversee humanitarian aid distribution in Gaza, rejecting Israeli control. The Palestine Red Crescent Society reports critical food shortages due to Israel’s blockade since March 2025. Ceasefire talks stalled after Hamas rejected U.S.-backed proposals.
2. **[2] مسعى لهدنة في غزة تواكب زيارة ترمب (صحيفة الشرق الأوسط, May 7, 2025)**
Egypt invited Hamas for talks ahead of Trump’s mid-May visit to the region. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed daily coordination with mediators. Ceasefire momentum hinges on Trump’s diplomatic leverage.
3. **[3] Gaza : le Hamas refuse de poursuivre les négociations (France 24, May 6, 2025)**
Hamas declared negotiations “irrelevant” after Israel’s plan to “conquer” Gaza. Spokesman Bassem Naïm cited Israel’s “war of hunger” as a barrier. The UN accused Israel of using aid as a “weapon.”
4. **[6] Ataque israelí a escuela mata a 23 (proceso.com.mx, May 6, 2025)**
Arab mediators proposed a 5–7-year truce, hostage exchanges, and Israeli withdrawal. Hamas demands international guarantees for implementation. Israel rejected terms, insisting on Hamas’s destruction.
5. **[7] Israele pronto a occupare Gaza (Vivere Ancona, May 6, 2025)**
Hamas reiterated its refusal to negotiate under Israel’s siege. The IDF announced plans to relocate Gazans to “sterile zones.” French FM condemned the strategy as illegal.
6. **[8] Qatar rejeita acusações de Israel (SAPO, May 4, 2025)**
Qatar rejected Netanyahu’s accusations of bias, defending its mediation role. Israel broke the January 2025 ceasefire on March 18, intensifying strikes and blocking aid.
7. **[15] Israel moviliza reservistas (CNN, May 4, 2025)**
Israel mobilized reservists and approved expanded operations in Gaza. Netanyahu accused Qatar of “playing both sides,” while Qatar criticized Israel’s aid blockade as “political coercion.”
8. **[19] Новое предложение посредников (РБК, May 4, 2025)**
Mediators proposed a 5–7-year truce, prisoner swaps, and Gaza governance by technocrats. Hamas showed “unprecedented flexibility,” but Israel rejected the terms.
9. **[25] Hamas: 5-year truce proposal (中华网科技公司, May 3, 2025)**
Hamas offered a 5-year ceasefire in exchange for lifting Israel’s blockade and full withdrawal from Gaza. Netanyahu dismissed it, prioritizing military action over negotiations.
10. **[35] Israel insists on Hamas disarmament (greaterkashmir.com, April 30, 2025)**
Israel demanded Hamas disarm before accepting any truce. Hamas proposed releasing hostages for a 5-year pause, but Israel dismissed it as insufficient.
—
**Key Updates (May 1–7, 2025)**
– **Hamas’s Stance**: Repeated refusal to negotiate while Israel continues military operations [1][3][7]. Open only to proposals guaranteeing permanent ceasefire and withdrawal [6][25].
– **Israeli Strategy**: Approved plans to expand military operations, mobilize reservists, and isolate Gaza’s population [7][15][24]. Netanyahu prioritizes destroying Hamas over hostage returns [24].
– **Mediator Efforts**: Egypt/Qatar proposed multi-year truces with international oversight [6][19], but Israel rejects conditions. U.S. envoy coordinates daily, linking progress to Trump’s visit [2][14].
– **Humanitarian Crisis**: UN reports 9-week aid blockade, 40,000 displaced in West Bank [12], and famine risks in Gaza [1][8].
**Expert Opinions & Authoritative Sources**
– **UN/OCHA**: Condemned Israel’s aid blockade as violating humanitarian law [12].
– **Qatar’s Foreign Ministry**: Called Netanyahu’s accusations “irresponsible” and reaffirmed mediation commitment [8][16].
– **European Union**: Defined Gaza’s conditions as “intolerable” [4] and illegal under international law [6].
**Statistical Data**
– Humanitarian Toll: 52,400+ Palestinian deaths since October 2023; 2,326+ killed since March 2025 [8][12].
– Hostages: 59 Israelis remain captive (34 confirmed dead) [8].
**Conclusion**
As of May 7, 2025, a ceasefire is highly unlikely. Hamas rejects negotiations under siege conditions [3][6], while Israel prioritizes military escalation [7][24]. Mediators’ proposals lack buy-in from both sides, and Trump’s visit introduces uncertainty but no clear path to resolution. The humanitarian collapse further complicates diplomacy.
GPT News Summary:
As of May 7, 2025, the possibility of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025 appears uncertain due to the following factors:
1. **Escalation in Conflict**: Current reports indicate intense military escalation from Israel with plans to “conquer” Gaza and ongoing military offensives, significantly affecting the humanitarian situation. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has launched new military campaigns against Gaza aimed at defeating Hamas and further displacing the population (The Hindu, May 7, 2025; Channel NewsAsia, May 6, 2025).
2. **Hamas’ Position**: Hamas has withdrawn from ceasefire negotiations, citing Israel’s military actions and blockade as a “war of hunger and extermination,” and any truce talks are deemed meaningless under current circumstances (Le Devoir, May 6, 2025; ABC, May 6, 2025).
3. **International Efforts**: The United States has proposed a new ceasefire framework, focusing on humanitarian corridors and hostage release, in anticipation of President Donald Trump’s visit to the region scheduled for May 13-15. However, Israel and Hamas have yet to agree to these terms (Watanserb, May 6, 2025).
4. **Recent Ceasefire Failure**: A previous ceasefire agreement from January 2025 collapsed due to mutual non-compliance and a lack of trust, including failed negotiations over hostage releases and military withdrawal from Gaza (Arbejderen, January 19, 2025; Kommersant, April 29, 2025).
5. **Global Reactions**: International condemnation of Israel’s actions continues, notably from France, which calls for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian aid. Despite diplomatic efforts from the US, France, and mediators like Egypt and Qatar, there is no imminent breakthrough (Prensa Latina, May 6, 2025; UNRWA, April 29, 2025).
6. **Humanitarian Crisis**: The situation in Gaza is dire, with over 2 million people affected by blockades and military operations. UN agencies have condemned the severity of conditions, describing them as a significant humanitarian crisis, pressuring for immediate aid and dialogue (The Hindu, May 7, 2025; UNRWA, April 29, 2025).
In summary, while diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire continue, the entrenched positions on both sides, ongoing military escalation, and historical distrust present significant challenges to achieving a ceasefire in May 2025. The alignment of international diplomatic efforts and their impact on the ground will be crucial to watch in the coming weeks.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[]
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Anthropic Binary response:
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment (as of May 7, 2025)
Based on the research information provided, the situation appears highly unfavorable for a ceasefire in May 2025:
1. **Hamas’s explicit rejection of negotiations:**
– Hamas has declared talks “pointless” under current conditions (Times of Israel, May 6)
– They cite Israel’s “hunger war” and blockade as precluding negotiations
– Hamas spokesman Bassem Naïm has stated negotiations are “irrelevant” (France 24, May 6)
2. **Israel’s military escalation:**
– Operation Gideon’s Chariots planned to “conquer Gaza”
– Security Cabinet approved Gaza reoccupation plan if no deal by May 15
– IDF mobilizing reservists and planning civilian displacement
– Netanyahu prioritizing military action over negotiations
3. **Failed mediation efforts:**
– Egypt/Qatar proposed 5-7 year truces with international oversight
– Hamas showed “unprecedented flexibility” but Israel rejected terms
– Previous ceasefire from January 2025 broke down in March 2025
– U.S. proposals sent to Egypt but lacking buy-in from key parties
4. **Trump’s visit timeline:**
– May 15 appears to be a deadline for Israeli action rather than a diplomatic catalyst
– While creating pressure for a potential agreement, the visit may accelerate military action instead
## Timeline Analysis
With only 24 days remaining in May 2025 (from today’s date of May 7):
– **First week of May:** Already shows increased hostilities, Hamas rejection of talks
– **Mid-May (around May 15):** Trump’s visit appears to be a deadline for Israeli action
– **Late May:** Limited time for parties to change positions and negotiate terms
## Historical Precedents
Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires required:
1. Sufficient military/political pressure on both sides
2. Strong international mediation (typically Egypt, Qatar, U.S.)
3. Achievable demands from both parties
4. Time for negotiations (typically weeks)
The March 2025 ceasefire breakdown creates additional mistrust that must be overcome.
## Factors Supporting a Potential Ceasefire
1. **International pressure** is intensifying (UN, China, France condemning Israel)
2. **Humanitarian catastrophe** could force intervention
3. **Trump’s visit** might create diplomatic opportunities
4. **Egypt’s invitation** to Hamas for talks suggests continued mediation
## Factors Against a Ceasefire
1. **Hamas’s explicit rejection** of negotiations under current conditions
2. **Israel’s military preparations** indicate commitment to offensive
3. **Netanyahu’s stance** on destroying Hamas rather than negotiating
4. **Lack of trust** following previous ceasefire breakdown in March
5. **Limited remaining time** in May (only 24 days remain)
6. **Hardened positions** on both sides with incompatible demands
## Probability Assessment
Given the analysis above:
– The default trajectory leads to continued military escalation, not ceasefire
– Both parties have publicly committed to positions incompatible with immediate ceasefire
– Mediators have been unable to bridge the gap
– Previous ceasefire attempts have failed recently (March 2025)
– The mid-May Trump visit creates a deadline that could accelerate conflict
– The humanitarian crisis may eventually force negotiations, but the timeline likely extends beyond May
Considering the short timeframe remaining in May, the explicit rejections of talks by Hamas, and Israel’s planned military operations, a ceasefire declaration in May appears highly unlikely. While international pressure continues and mediators haven’t abandoned efforts, the conditions for successful negotiations don’t appear to exist currently.
Based on all available evidence, I estimate the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025 at:
Probability: 15%
The extracted probability is: 15%
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Anthropic Binary response:
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025?
## Current Situation Analysis (as of May 7, 2025)
Based on the research assistant reports, the current situation appears highly unfavorable for a ceasefire in May 2025:
1. **Hamas has explicitly rejected negotiations** under current conditions (May 6-7 reports), calling talks “irrelevant” and “pointless” due to Israel’s “hunger war” and military operations.
2. **Israel has approved plans for a major military operation** (Operation Gideon’s Chariots) aimed at “conquering Gaza” and defeating Hamas, with implementation appearing imminent.
3. **Israel has set a May 15 deadline** (coinciding with Trump’s visit) after which they plan to reoccupy Gaza if no deal is reached.
4. **Previous ceasefire collapsed recently** (March 2025) after Israel resumed shelling, indicating a pattern of failed agreements.
5. **Humanitarian crisis is worsening**, with critical food shortages reported by aid organizations, which further inflames tensions.
## Potential Pathways to a Ceasefire
Despite the negative indicators, there are some potential pathways to a ceasefire:
1. **Trump’s visit (May 13-15)** could serve as a catalyst for diplomatic breakthrough, with Egypt already inviting Hamas for talks ahead of this visit.
2. **Mediator proposals** from Qatar and Egypt for a 5-7 year truce with international oversight.
3. **Limited hostage deal** – Israel has proposed a 45-60 day ceasefire in exchange for hostage releases, which could materialize even without a comprehensive agreement.
4. **International pressure** from the UN, France, and other nations condemning the humanitarian crisis.
## Time Consideration
There are approximately 24 days remaining in May after today (May 7). This provides a moderate window for diplomatic developments, but given the current escalation trajectory and hardened positions, this timeframe seems insufficient for major breakthroughs without significant external intervention.
## Historical Base Rates
Previous ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas have typically occurred:
1. After periods of intense fighting where both sides reached military/political exhaustion
2. Following substantial international pressure
3. With significant third-party mediation (typically Egypt, Qatar, or the US)
The current situation has elements of points 2 and 3, but Israel appears to be escalating rather than exhausting its military options, making it less likely to agree to terms.
## Probability Calculation
Let’s break down the probability:
– **Base probability given current trajectory**: Very low (~5%) given Hamas’s explicit rejection and Israel’s military preparations
– **Trump visit effect**: +10% (potential high-level intervention)
– **Hostage deal possibility**: +5% (limited agreement might emerge even without comprehensive ceasefire)
– **International pressure**: +5% (increasing but lacks enforcement mechanisms)
– **Negative factors**: Israel’s May 15 ultimatum, Hamas’s rejection, deteriorating humanitarian situation, failed March 2025 ceasefire
Given these factors, the probability distribution skews heavily toward no ceasefire by May 31, 2025.
The time remaining (24 days) is likely insufficient to overcome the current intensity of hostilities and mutual rejection of terms.
Considering the need to avoid overconfidence, I’ll adjust my estimate slightly upward from what the raw analysis suggests, but the situation remains highly unfavorable for a ceasefire.
Probability: 15%
The extracted probability is: 15%
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Anthropic Binary response:
# Analyzing Ceasefire Probability Between Israel and Hamas in May 2025
## Current Situation Assessment (as of May 7, 2025)
The current Israel-Hamas conflict shows significant escalation rather than de-escalation:
1. **Military Escalation**:
– Israel is planning “Operation Gideon’s Chariots” aimed at conquering Gaza
– Mobilization of reservists and approved expanded operations
– Plans to relocate Gazans to “sterile zones”
– Netanyahu prioritizing military victory over negotiations
2. **Hamas Position**:
– Explicitly rejected further negotiations while blockade continues
– Called talks “irrelevant” due to Israel’s “war of hunger”
– Only open to comprehensive deals with permanent ceasefire guarantees
3. **Diplomatic Efforts**:
– Egypt invited Hamas for talks ahead of Trump’s mid-May visit
– Mediators (Qatar/Egypt) proposed 5-7 year truce frameworks
– U.S. envoy coordinating daily with mediators
– Trump’s visit around May 15 viewed as potential diplomatic inflection point
4. **Negotiation Breakdown**:
– Previous ceasefire from January 2025 collapsed in March
– Israel rejected Hamas’s 5-year ceasefire proposal
– Hamas has shown “unprecedented flexibility” according to some mediators
– Mutual distrust continues to undermine negotiations
## Timeline Analysis
Today is May 7, meaning we have approximately 24 days until the resolution date of June 1. Key events within this timeframe:
– **Trump’s visit (May 13-15)**: Could be a catalyst for diplomatic breakthrough or deadline for Israel’s expanded operations
– **Israel’s ultimatum**: Security Cabinet approved Gaza reoccupation if no deal by May 15
– **Humanitarian crisis**: Worsening conditions could increase international pressure
## Historical Context
Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires required:
1. Intense international pressure
2. Exhaustion of military objectives on both sides
3. Significant mediator involvement (historically Egypt, Qatar, US)
4. Face-saving concessions for both parties
The January 2025 ceasefire collapsed after just ~2 months, suggesting fundamental issues remain unresolved.
## Probability Assessment
Factors increasing ceasefire likelihood:
– Trump’s visit creates diplomatic pressure point (~+10%)
– Ongoing mediation efforts by Egypt and Qatar (~+5%)
– International condemnation of humanitarian crisis (~+5%)
– Israel’s potential willingness for partial/temporary ceasefire tied to hostage releases (~+7%)
Factors decreasing ceasefire likelihood:
– Hamas’s explicit rejection of negotiations under current conditions (~-15%)
– Israel’s operational plans and ultimatum for May 15 (~-20%)
– Netanyahu’s domestic political constraints favoring military action (~-10%)
– Failed January 2025 ceasefire creating trust deficit (~-7%)
– Historical difficulty achieving ceasefires without military exhaustion (~-5%)
## Scenario Analysis
1. **Pre-Trump Visit Deal** (15% likelihood): Intense U.S./mediator pressure leads to temporary ceasefire ahead of Trump’s visit
2. **Trump-Brokered Deal** (10% likelihood): Trump’s visit catalyzes breakthrough during/immediately after visit
3. **Late May Deal** (5% likelihood): Military operations begin but reach quick stalemate, leading to late-month ceasefire
4. **No Deal in May** (70% likelihood): Escalation continues, negotiations remain stalled throughout month
## Time-Weighted Considerations
The May 15 deadline (Trump visit/Israel ultimatum) is crucial. If no ceasefire by then, the likelihood drops significantly for the remainder of the month as military operations would commence at larger scale.
Taking all factors into account, particularly the explicit rejection by Hamas of negotiations, Israel’s preparation for major operations, and the limited time remaining in May after the expected failure of pre-Trump visit negotiations, I assess a low probability of a ceasefire declaration in May 2025.
Probability: 30%
The extracted probability is: 30%
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Anthropic Binary response:
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment (May 7, 2025)
Based on the research provided, several key factors are evident:
1. **Hamas’s Current Position**: Multiple sources (May 5-7, 2025) indicate Hamas has explicitly rejected further ceasefire negotiations as “pointless” or “irrelevant” while Israel maintains its blockade and military operations. This is a significant obstacle to any immediate ceasefire.
2. **Israel’s Military Plans**: Israel has approved “Operation Gideon’s Chariots” to “conquer Gaza,” with plans to displace civilians and defeat Hamas militarily. They’ve mobilized reservists and set May 15 (coinciding with Trump’s visit) as a key deadline.
3. **Failed Recent Attempts**: A previous ceasefire from January 2025 collapsed in March 2025 when Israel resumed military operations. This demonstrates the fragility of any potential agreement.
4. **Diplomatic Efforts**: Egypt has invited Hamas for talks ahead of Trump’s visit. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is coordinating with mediators, and Qatar/Egypt have proposed a 5-7 year truce framework. However, both sides appear to have rejected each other’s terms.
5. **Humanitarian Crisis**: Aid blockades since March 2025 have created severe food shortages in Gaza, further hardening Hamas’s stance against negotiations under current conditions.
## Timeframe Analysis
We’re currently on May 7, and need to assess whether a ceasefire will be declared in the remaining 24 days of May 2025. Important timeline factors:
– Trump’s visit (May 13-15) is a key diplomatic inflection point
– Israel has set May 15 as a deadline for action if no deal is reached
– The timeframe is quite short (3+ weeks) for overcoming deeply entrenched positions
## Historical Precedents and Base Rates
Looking at past Israel-Hamas conflicts:
– Previous ceasefires have typically required weeks/months of negotiation
– Mediators (Qatar, Egypt, U.S.) have successfully brokered agreements in the past
– However, ceasefires often follow periods of intense military operations, suggesting Israel may want to complete its planned offensive first
## Factors Supporting a May 2025 Ceasefire
1. **Trump’s Visit**: The mid-May visit creates diplomatic pressure and a natural focal point for negotiations.
2. **International Pressure**: China, UN, France, and other nations are condemning Israel’s actions and pushing for a ceasefire.
3. **Mediator Proposals**: Detailed frameworks for 5-7 year truces exist and could be quickly implemented if political will emerges.
4. **Deteriorating Humanitarian Situation**: The dire conditions in Gaza increase urgency for all parties.
## Factors Against a May 2025 Ceasefire
1. **Hamas’s Explicit Rejection**: Multiple recent (May 5-7) statements from Hamas leadership refusing to negotiate while Israel maintains its blockade.
2. **Israel’s Military Commitment**: Israel has mobilized for a major offensive and publicly committed to destroying Hamas’s capabilities.
3. **Incompatible Demands**: Hamas demands guarantees of Israeli withdrawal and blockade lifting; Israel demands Hamas disarmament.
4. **Failed Recent Attempts**: The March breakdown of the previous ceasefire demonstrates the difficulty of sustaining agreements.
5. **Limited Time**: Only 24 days remain in May, and successful ceasefires typically require more extensive negotiation.
## Probability Calibration
Given the specific timeframe (remaining days in May 2025) and current deteriorating conditions, I need to be careful not to overestimate the likelihood of a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
Let’s consider different scenarios:
1. **No Change Scenario (60% likelihood)**: The current trajectory continues with Hamas refusing negotiations while Israel pursues its military offensive. No ceasefire by month-end.
2. **Trump Visit Catalyst (25% likelihood)**: Trump’s visit creates sufficient diplomatic pressure for a temporary ceasefire declaration, possibly limited in scope or focused on hostage exchanges.
3. **Military/Humanitarian Emergency (15% likelihood)**: A catastrophic event during Israel’s offensive or severe deterioration of humanitarian conditions forces an emergency ceasefire.
Adjusting for historical ceasefire patterns and the compressed timeframe, I estimate approximately a 40% chance of a ceasefire declaration occurring within May 2025.
This factors in the significant obstacles (explicit rejection by Hamas, Israel’s military plans) while acknowledging the potential impact of Trump’s visit and international pressure.
Given that only 24 days remain and positions appear deeply entrenched with concrete military plans in motion, I will adjust slightly downward from 40% to 35% to account for the limited time remaining.
Probability: 35%
The extracted probability is: 35%
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Anthropic Binary response:
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment (as of May 7, 2025)
The research assistants provide a comprehensive picture of the current situation between Israel and Hamas. Let me analyze the key factors affecting the likelihood of a ceasefire in the remaining 24 days of May 2025:
### 1. Current Military Dynamics
– Israel is preparing for “Operation Gideon’s Chariots,” a major offensive to “conquer Gaza”
– Israel has mobilized reservists and approved expanded operations
– Israel has set a deadline of May 15 (Trump’s visit) for a hostage deal before intensifying military action
– Hamas has withdrawn from ceasefire negotiations, declaring them “irrelevant”
### 2. Diplomatic Efforts
– Egypt has invited Hamas for talks ahead of Trump’s mid-May visit
– Mediators (Qatar/Egypt) have proposed 5-7 year truce frameworks
– U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is coordinating daily with mediators
– Trump’s visit (May 13-15) represents a potential diplomatic catalyst
### 3. Positions of Key Parties
– **Hamas**: Refuses to negotiate under current blockade conditions; demands full Israeli withdrawal and guarantees
– **Israel**: Demands Hamas disarmament; prioritizes military defeat of Hamas; rejects current proposals
– **Mediators**: Proposing multi-year truces with international oversight
### 4. Previous Patterns
– A January 2025 ceasefire collapsed in March 2025
– Previous ceasefires have typically required weeks of preparation
– Historical precedent shows Hamas has accepted temporary truces (hudna)
## Timeline Analysis
With 24 days remaining in May, there are several key inflection points:
1. **May 13-15**: Trump’s visit to the region (could force diplomatic movement)
2. **May 15**: Israel’s stated deadline before intensifying military action
3. **Late May**: Potential window for diplomatic breakthrough if early May negotiations gain traction
## Probability Factors
### Factors Increasing Ceasefire Likelihood
1. International pressure is intense and growing
2. Trump’s visit creates a focal point for diplomatic efforts
3. Humanitarian catastrophe increases urgency for resolution
4. Mediators remain actively engaged despite setbacks
5. Historical precedent shows ceasefires can emerge quickly
### Factors Decreasing Ceasefire Likelihood
1. Hamas has explicitly rejected current negotiations
2. Israel is preparing major military operations, not de-escalation
3. Netanyahu faces domestic political constraints against compromise
4. Both sides appear entrenched in fundamentally incompatible positions
5. Previous ceasefire just collapsed in March, indicating low trust
6. Israel’s May 15 deadline suggests military action is the primary path
7. Only 24 days remain for negotiations to succeed
## Probability Calculation
I need to estimate the likelihood of a ceasefire being declared in the next 24 days given the current situation.
### Base Rate Considerations
– In the Israel-Hamas conflict history, ceasefires typically emerge after periods of intense fighting
– Previous ceasefires have required significant international mediation
– The current conflict phase (since October 2023) has seen only one brief ceasefire
### Daily Probability Approach
If we assume each day has some independent probability of a ceasefire breakthrough, the likelihood over 24 days would be higher than a single day. However, the current positions suggest the daily probability is very low.
### Trump Visit Impact
The Trump visit (May 13-15) represents the most likely catalyst for movement. If we assign a higher probability around this period, but acknowledge the entrenchment of both sides, this creates a modest bump in overall likelihood.
### Synthesizing the Evidence
The preponderance of evidence suggests a ceasefire is unlikely in May 2025:
– Both sides are positioned for continued conflict, not resolution
– Israel’s explicit deadline of May 15 for military action
– Hamas’s explicit rejection of negotiations
– The complexity of issues requiring resolution
– The breakdown of the previous ceasefire just two months ago
While Trump’s visit creates some possibility of movement, the fundamental positions of the parties, military preparations, and explicit statements suggest this is a low-probability event in the May timeframe.
Given all these factors, I estimate that the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025 is approximately 15%.
This accounts for:
– The small but real possibility that Trump’s visit catalyzes a breakthrough (~10%)
– A small chance of an unexpected development forcing both sides to the table (~5%)
– The significant weight of evidence suggesting continued conflict is the most likely path
Probability: 15%
The extracted probability is: 15%
GPT Binary response:
Reasoning
1. Definition & resolution window
– Question asks whether a cease-fire “between Israel and Hamas” will be declared at any point from 1 May 2025 through 31 May 2025 (inclusive).
– A qualifying cease-fire therefore has to be publicly announced and accepted by both parties, not merely a unilateral pause or a limited tactical “humanitarian window.”
2. Base rate of cease-fires in this war
– Since the war re-ignited in Oct 2023 there have been two mutually accepted cease-fires (7-day deal in Nov 2023; 11-day deal in Jan 2025).
– Roughly 2 cease-fires over 19 months ≈ 0.11 per month, a crude 11 % base probability for any given month.
3. Current strategic positions (7 May 2025)
Israel
– Security Cabinet approved plans to expand ground operations (“Operation Gideon’s Chariots”); reservists mobilised.
– Political leadership facing hard-line pressure to destroy Hamas, and war cabinet cohesion is fragile.
Hamas
– Publicly says further talks are “pointless” while siege continues; demands permanent cease-fire and total withdrawal.
– Still holds 59 hostages but regards them as last major bargaining chip.
Mediators / external actors
– Egypt, Qatar and the U.S. are circulating proposals. A U.S. team is trying to land a 45- to 60-day pause tied to hostage releases before President Trump’s 13-15 May visit.
– China, the UN, EU states are sharply critical of Israel but have little coercive leverage.
4. Short-term catalysts that could raise odds
a. Trump visit supplies a political “deadline” and potential face-saving opportunity.
b. Intensifying famine risk and mounting international pressure could push Israel to accept a limited truce.
c. A major battlefield shock (e.g., mass-casualty incident or large hostage death toll) could abruptly shift incentives.
5. Obstacles that keep odds low
a. Both parties’ publicly stated red lines are mutually incompatible today.
b. Israeli leadership signals preference for escalation unless Hamas accepts far-reaching terms; Hamas rejects partial deals.
c. Domestic political costs for Netanyahu of appearing to “capitulate” before eliminating Hamas.
d. Only 24 days remain; negotiations typically need several days for text, Cabinet approval, Hamas Politburo endorsement and public announcement.
6. Quantitative estimate
– Hostage-driven limited cease-fire emerging around Trump’s visit: ≈ 6 %
– Broader deal via Egyptian/Qatari mediation later in the month: ≈ 5 %
– Crisis-triggered unscheduled stop-fire: ≈ 4 %
– Residual uncertainty / modelling error: ≈ 3 %
Sum ≈ 18 %
7. Adjustment for overconfidence (track record shows slight over-prediction of positives): –1 % → 17 %.
8. Sensitivity checks
– If no deal reached by 15 May and Israel launches the advertised offensive, probability falls to roughly 8 % for the remainder of the month.
– Conversely, credible reports of a draft text accepted by Israel would raise odds quickly above 50 %, so monitoring that single indicator is crucial.
Probability: 17%
The extracted probability is: 17%
GPT Binary response:
Rationale
1. Definitions and resolution mechanics
‒ Most forecasting contests treat “ceasefire” as a mutually acknowledged pause in offensive operations, publicly announced or recorded by an authoritative third party (U.N., Egypt, Qatar, U.S.). A short, time-bound “humanitarian pause” normally counts, provided both Israel and Hamas (or their recognized representatives) accept it.
‒ The question asks whether such a declaration occurs at any time between 1 May 2025 00:00 UTC and 31 May 2025 23:59 UTC. A declaration on 1 June or later would not satisfy the criterion.
2. Remaining window
‒ Today is 7 May; 24 days remain.
3. Current situational picture (7 May)
Israel:
• War cabinet has approved “Operation Gideon’s Chariots,” an intensified ground campaign set to begin if no deal by ~15 May (Axios 5 May, ToI 6 May).
• Netanyahu publicly prioritises destroying Hamas over additional hostage releases; domestic hostage-families lobby still presses for deal.
Hamas:
• Spokespersons call further talks “pointless” while “hunger war” continues (ToI 6 May, CNA 6 May, France 24 6 May).
• Has floated multi-year truces in exchange for full withdrawal, routinely rejected by Israel (RBC 4 May, Chinese source 3 May).
Mediator activity:
• Egypt, Qatar, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff working toward a 45-60-day deal keyed to Trump’s 13–15 May visit (Asharq Al-Awsat 7 May).
• UN, China, EU increasing rhetorical pressure; no enforcement mechanism.
4. Base-rate considerations
2006–2024 Gaza conflicts: ~7 major hostilities, each ultimately punctuated by at least one short ceasefire. Median lag between peak international pressure and announcement of a pause ≈ 10–14 days.
January–March 2025: ceasefire lasted ~8 weeks before collapse—shows that even in highly adversarial phases talks can succeed under hostage/aid leverage.
Historical probability of some ceasefire being declared within any random 30-day period during an active Gaza war: roughly 10–15 %.
5. Catalysts in favour of a May ceasefire
• Hostage issue: 59 Israelis remain captive; families rally daily. Israeli leaders often yield when hostage return dovetails with major diplomatic events (cf. Nov 2023 pause before U.S. Thanksgiving).
• Trump visit is an obvious bargaining focal point; both sides know media glare will be intense.
• Looming famine and UN warnings could spur a narrowly scoped “humanitarian pause” acceptable to Israel for optics and to Hamas for relief.
6. Headwinds against a May ceasefire
• Hamas outright rejection of current U.S./Israeli framework as of 6 May.
• Israeli government signalling readiness to re-occupy parts of Gaza, has mobilised reservists (CNN 4 May). Domestic political incentives (coalition stability, deterrence narrative) lean toward escalation, not restraint.
• Each side’s minimal terms are non-overlapping (Hamas wants blockade lifted and international guarantees; Israel insists on Hamas disarmament or dismantlement). Bridging this gap in < 3 weeks is difficult.
7. Scenario tree (rounded)
A. Deal struck before 15 May tied to Trump visit: 11 %
B. Deal after initial offensive stalls (16–31 May): 6 %
C. No declaration in May: 83 %
8. Calibration adjustment
My historical tendency has been slight over-confidence (≈5 pp). I therefore nudge the combined A + B probability from 17 % down to 15 % to hedge.
Probability: 15%
The extracted probability is: 15%
Gemini Binary response:
The question asks for the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025. The current date is May 7, 2025, and the resolution date is June 1, 2025, leaving 25 days in the forecast period (May 7 to May 31 inclusive).
**1. Current Situation and Key Factors (as of May 7, 2025):**
* **Israeli Stance and Military Plans:** Multiple sources indicate Israel is preparing for or has initiated a significant military escalation.
* The IDF plans “Operation Gideon’s Chariots” aimed at conquering Gaza, displacing civilians, and destroying Hamas infrastructure (Times of Israel, May 6; CNA, May 6).
* Israel’s Security Cabinet approved a Gaza reoccupation plan if no deal is reached by May 15, coinciding with a visit by Donald Trump (Axios, May 5).
* Israel has mobilized reservists and approved expanded operations (CNN, May 4).
* Prime Minister Netanyahu is reported to be prioritizing military action and the destruction of Hamas over negotiations or even some hostage returns (Proceso.com.mx, May 6; Greater Kashmir, April 30).
* Israel has proposed a 45-60 day ceasefire in exchange for hostage releases, but this is part of a ultimatum (Axios, May 5). Israel has rejected Hamas’s proposals for longer-term truces (5-7 years) that do not involve Hamas’s disarmament or destruction (Proceso.com.mx, May 6; РБК, May 4).
* **Hamas’s Position:** Hamas has largely withdrawn from or rejected recent ceasefire negotiations.
* Hamas states there is “no point in further truce talks” if Israel continues its “hunger war” and military operations (Times of Israel, May 6; France 24, May 6; Le Devoir, May 6).
* Hamas demands a comprehensive deal, including a permanent ceasefire, full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and international guarantees (Proceso.com.mx, May 6;中华网科技公司, May 3).
* While Hamas reportedly showed “unprecedented flexibility” in a proposal for a 5-7 year truce, this was rejected by Israel (РБК, May 4).
* **Mediation Efforts:** Mediation is ongoing but stalled.
* Egypt and Qatar are key mediators, with U.S. involvement (U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff coordinating daily).
* Egypt invited Hamas for talks ahead of Trump’s mid-May visit (صحيفة الشرق الأوسط, May 7).
* However, U.S.-backed proposals have been rejected by Hamas, and ceasefire talks are described as “stalled” (TASS, May 7).
* **Humanitarian Situation:** The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is severe, with widespread displacement, food shortages due to Israel’s blockade, and accusations of aid being used as a weapon. This is drawing international condemnation (UN, China, France, EU) but has not yet forced a ceasefire.
* **Recent Ceasefire History:** A ceasefire agreed upon in January 2025 reportedly broke down in March 2025 due to renewed Israeli hostilities and non-compliance, highlighting the fragility of such agreements (Wikipedia, May 5; SAPO, May 4).
**2. Analysis of Likelihood for May 2025:**
The overwhelming evidence points to a low probability of a ceasefire being declared in May 2025.
* **Strong Negative Indicators:**
* Israel’s advanced plans for a major military offensive, with a potential trigger date around May 15.
* Hamas’s consistent and recent public rejection of negotiations under current conditions.
* The fundamental divergence in core demands: Israel seeking Hamas’s destruction/disarmament, while Hamas seeks a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal.
* The recent failure of a previous ceasefire.
* **Potential (but less likely) Positive Indicators / Wildcards:**
* **May 15 Deadline/Trump Visit:** The Israeli ultimatum for a deal by May 15 could theoretically pressure Hamas into accepting a limited deal (like the proposed 45-60 day pause for hostages) to avert a larger offensive. Donald Trump’s visit around the same time could be a focal point for intense U.S. diplomatic pressure.
* **Ongoing Mediation:** Despite stalls, mediators (Egypt, Qatar, US) are still engaged. Egypt’s invitation to Hamas for talks indicates diplomatic channels are not entirely closed.
* **Humanitarian Pressure:** Escalating international condemnation of the humanitarian crisis could increase pressure for at least a temporary pause, though this has not been decisive so far.
**3. Probability Assessment:**
The period before May 15 is the most critical window. If Israel’s threatened offensive proceeds around this date, the likelihood of a *declared* ceasefire in the latter half of May diminishes further, as active, large-scale conflict would likely ensue.
A ceasefire would require a significant shift from the current trajectory. This could be:
a. Hamas accepting a limited Israeli offer under duress.
b. Israel backing down from its offensive plans due to unforeseen circumstances or irresistible international pressure.
c. A new, mutually acceptable proposal emerging suddenly.
Given the strength of the negative indicators (Israel’s planned offensive, Hamas’s rejection of talks, fundamental disagreements), the probability is low. However, in volatile conflict situations with active high-level diplomacy, unexpected developments cannot be entirely ruled out.
The existence of an Israeli proposal for a 45-60 day truce (even if currently rejected by Hamas) means there is a concrete path to a “declared ceasefire” if Hamas’s position were to change. The ongoing efforts by Egypt to bring Hamas to talks also suggest that diplomatic avenues are not completely exhausted.
Considering the Brier score implications, a forecast should reflect this small but non-zero possibility. “Highly unlikely” would typically translate to a probability below 10%.
* Probability of a ceasefire by May 15: This is the period of maximum pressure before the potential Israeli escalation. The chances are slim but represent the most plausible window if a May ceasefire were to occur. Perhaps 3-4%.
* Probability of a ceasefire between May 16 and May 31: If a major Israeli offensive begins, the chance of a new ceasefire being agreed upon and declared within the remaining two weeks of May is even lower. Perhaps 1-2%.
This sums to a total probability of around 4-6% for a ceasefire being declared in May 2025. The information strongly indicates continued or escalating conflict.
I will set the probability at the lower end of this estimation to reflect the overwhelming weight of evidence against a ceasefire, while still acknowledging the small possibility of a diplomatic surprise or a tactical pause driven by the extreme circumstances.
Probability: 5%
The extracted probability is: 5%
GPT Binary response:
Rationale and key considerations
1. Definition and timing
• “Ceasefire declared” is interpreted as a mutually-announced suspension of hostilities (even if temporary or conditional) by both Israel and Hamas during 1–31 May 2025.
• Today is 7 May; 24 days remain in the month.
2. Current strategic positions (7 May snapshots)
• Israel: Security Cabinet has authorised “Operation Gideon’s Chariots,” with a public deadline of ≈15 May to reach a hostage deal before re-occupying Gaza. Netanyahu’s coalition partners still insist on defeating Hamas, but domestic pressure from hostage families and reservists is intensifying.
• Hamas: Rejects partial truces, demands permanent ceasefire, blockade lifting and Israeli withdrawal; nevertheless shows occasional flexibility on multi-year truces tied to hostage exchanges.
• Mediators: Egypt, Qatar and the U.S. (ahead of President Trump’s 13–15 May visit) are circulating draft frameworks (45–60-day pause for hostages; longer “5-year truce” variants). No text has yet been accepted by both sides.
• International pressure: UN, EU and China condemn Israel’s aid blockade; famine warnings increase reputational costs. Washington faces electoral pressure to bring hostages home.
3. Base-rate and historical analogues
• Since 2008 every major Israel-Gaza round eventually produced at least one formal ceasefire; median time to first ceasefire ≈3–7 weeks after peak escalation.
• This war has already seen two declared pauses (Nov 2023, Jan 2025), so fresh pauses are not unprecedented.
• Out of the 19 months since Oct 2023, formal ceasefires were declared in 2; naïve monthly base rate ≈10%. Negotiation-heavy periods (hostage deals pending) lift that to roughly 20-25 %.
4. Forward-looking catalysts and obstacles
• Pre-15 May window: Trump’s visit offers a potential diplomatic “set piece” and a face-saving moment for both sides; domestic Israeli hostage politics align with a narrow truce.
• Post-15 May: If Israel launches a large ground operation, momentum swings strongly against a May truce; historically major IDF offensives run for at least several weeks before pausing.
• Humanitarian catastrophe could spur a very short (24-72 h) “humanitarian ceasefire,” which would still satisfy most resolution criteria—but such pauses usually arise under extreme UN/US pressure and require Hamas concurrence.
• Spoilers: Hamas leadership deaths, rocket barrages into Israel’s interior, or Israeli cabinet collapse would sharply reduce chances.
5. Quantitative estimate (two sub-windows)
• 8 May–15 May: ~24 % chance a truce/ceasefire is announced.
• 16 May–31 May: ~8 % chance (conditional on no earlier deal).
Joint probability: 1 – (0.76 × 0.92) ≈ 30 %.
Adjusting 5 p.p. downward for my historical overconfidence and residual definitional ambiguity → 25 %.
6. Sensitivity check
• A clear public breakthrough in Cairo/Doha talks or hostage-release signals would raise odds toward 40 %.
• Confirmed Israeli ground assault commencing before 15 May without talks collapsing the same day would drop odds below 15 %.
7. Longer horizons (context only)
• Ceasefire declared by 30 Jun 2025: ~50 %.
• Ceasefire declared by 31 Dec 2025: ~80 %.
Taking all factors into account, a declaration during May remains possible but not the central expectation.
Probability: 25%
The extracted probability is: 25%
Task failed with error:
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 103, in fetch_gemini_binary_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gemini_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 61, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
asyncio.exceptions.TimeoutError
Task failed with error:
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 71, in fetch_gpt_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gpt_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 61, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
asyncio.exceptions.TimeoutError
All predictions: [15, 15, 15, 15, 17, 30, 35]
Filtered predictions: [15, 15, 17]
Median reasoning:
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment (as of May 7, 2025)
Based on the research information provided, the situation appears highly unfavorable for a ceasefire in May 2025:
1. **Hamas’s explicit rejection of negotiations:**
– Hamas has declared talks “pointless” under current conditions (Times of Israel, May 6)
– They cite Israel’s “hunger war” and blockade as precluding negotiations
– Hamas spokesman Bassem Naïm has stated negotiations are “irrelevant” (France 24, May 6)
2. **Israel’s military escalation:**
– Operation Gideon’s Chariots planned to “conquer Gaza”
– Security Cabinet approved Gaza reoccupation plan if no deal by May 15
– IDF mobilizing reservists and planning civilian displacement
– Netanyahu prioritizing military action over negotiations
3. **Failed mediation efforts:**
– Egypt/Qatar proposed 5-7 year truces with international oversight
– Hamas showed “unprecedented flexibility” but Israel rejected terms
– Previous ceasefire from January 2025 broke down in March 2025
– U.S. proposals sent to Egypt but lacking buy-in from key parties
4. **Trump’s visit timeline:**
– May 15 appears to be a deadline for Israeli action rather than a diplomatic catalyst
– While creating pressure for a potential agreement, the visit may accelerate military action instead
## Timeline Analysis
With only 24 days remaining in May 2025 (from today’s date of May 7):
– **First week of May:** Already shows increased hostilities, Hamas rejection of talks
– **Mid-May (around May 15):** Trump’s visit appears to be a deadline for Israeli action
– **Late May:** Limited time for parties to change positions and negotiate terms
## Historical Precedents
Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires required:
1. Sufficient military/political pressure on both sides
2. Strong international mediation (typically Egypt, Qatar, U.S.)
3. Achievable demands from both parties
4. Time for negotiations (typically weeks)
The March 2025 ceasefire breakdown creates additional mistrust that must be overcome.
## Factors Supporting a Potential Ceasefire
1. **International pressure** is intensifying (UN, China, France condemning Israel)
2. **Humanitarian catastrophe** could force intervention
3. **Trump’s visit** might create diplomatic opportunities
4. **Egypt’s invitation** to Hamas for talks suggests continued mediation
## Factors Against a Ceasefire
1. **Hamas’s explicit rejection** of negotiations under current conditions
2. **Israel’s military preparations** indicate commitment to offensive
3. **Netanyahu’s stance** on destroying Hamas rather than negotiating
4. **Lack of trust** following previous ceasefire breakdown in March
5. **Limited remaining time** in May (only 24 days remain)
6. **Hardened positions** on both sides with incompatible demands
## Probability Assessment
Given the analysis above:
– The default trajectory leads to continued military escalation, not ceasefire
– Both parties have publicly committed to positions incompatible with immediate ceasefire
– Mediators have been unable to bridge the gap
– Previous ceasefire attempts have failed recently (March 2025)
– The mid-May Trump visit creates a deadline that could accelerate conflict
– The humanitarian crisis may eventually force negotiations, but the timeline likely extends beyond May
Considering the short timeframe remaining in May, the explicit rejections of talks by Hamas, and Israel’s planned military operations, a ceasefire declaration in May appears highly unlikely. While international pressure continues and mediators haven’t abandoned efforts, the conditions for successful negotiations don’t appear to exist currently.
Based on all available evidence, I estimate the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025 at:
Probability: 15%
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: 0.15666666666666665,
“probability_yes_per_category”: null,
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment (as of May 7, 2025)
Based on the research information provided, the situation appears highly unfavorable for a ceasefire in May 2025:
1. **Hamas’s explicit rejection of negotiations:**
– Hamas has declared talks “pointless” under current conditions (Times of Israel, May 6)
– They cite Israel’s “hunger war” and blockade as precluding negotiations
– Hamas spokesman Bassem Naïm has stated negotiations are “irrelevant” (France 24, May 6)
2. **Israel’s military escalation:**
– Operation Gideon’s Chariots planned to “conquer Gaza”
– Security Cabinet approved Gaza reoccupation plan if no deal by May 15
– IDF mobilizing reservists and planning civilian displacement
– Netanyahu prioritizing military action over negotiations
3. **Failed mediation efforts:**
– Egypt/Qatar proposed 5-7 year truces with international oversight
– Hamas showed “unprecedented flexibility” but Israel rejected terms
– Previous ceasefire from January 2025 broke down in March 2025
– U.S. proposals sent to Egypt but lacking buy-in from key parties
4. **Trump’s visit timeline:**
– May 15 appears to be a deadline for Israeli action rather than a diplomatic catalyst
– While creating pressure for a potential agreement, the visit may accelerate military action instead
## Timeline Analysis
With only 24 days remaining in May 2025 (from today’s date of May 7):
– **First week of May:** Already shows increased hostilities, Hamas rejection of talks
– **Mid-May (around May 15):** Trump’s visit appears to be a deadline for Israeli action
– **Late May:** Limited time for parties to change positions and negotiate terms
## Historical Precedents
Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires required:
1. Sufficient military/political pressure on both sides
2. Strong international mediation (typically Egypt, Qatar, U.S.)
3. Achievable demands from both parties
4. Time for negotiations (typically weeks)
The March 2025 ceasefire breakdown creates additional mistrust that must be overcome.
## Factors Supporting a Potential Ceasefire
1. **International pressure** is intensifying (UN, China, France condemning Israel)
2. **Humanitarian catastrophe** could force intervention
3. **Trump’s visit** might create diplomatic opportunities
4. **Egypt’s invitation** to Hamas for talks suggests continued mediation
## Factors Against a Ceasefire
1. **Hamas’s explicit rejection** of negotiations under current conditions
2. **Israel’s military preparations** indicate commitment to offensive
3. **Netanyahu’s stance** on destroying Hamas rather than negotiating
4. **Lack of trust** following previous ceasefire breakdown in March
5. **Limited remaining time** in May (only 24 days remain)
6. **Hardened positions** on both sides with incompatible demands
## Probability Assessment
Given the analysis above:
– The default trajectory leads to continued military escalation, not ceasefire
– Both parties have publicly committed to positions incompatible with immediate ceasefire
– Mediators have been unable to bridge the gap
– Previous ceasefire attempts have failed recently (March 2025)
– The mid-May Trump visit creates a deadline that could accelerate conflict
– The humanitarian crisis may eventually force negotiations, but the timeline likely extends beyond May
Considering the short timeframe remaining in May, the explicit rejections of talks by Hamas, and Israel’s planned military operations, a ceasefire declaration in May appears highly unlikely. While international pressure continues and mediators haven’t abandoned efforts, the conditions for successful negotiations don’t appear to exist currently.
Based on all available evidence, I estimate the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025 at:
Probability: 15%
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
