How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 2%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 16%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 21%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 26%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 19%
* More than 12000: 16%
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
.“Of course! Please go ahead and provide the newsfeed, and I’ll summarize it for you.” [Carolyn’s note: Today, the newsfeed failed to execute. Sorry, but that is not unusual with consumer generative AI portals.]
Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the summary provided, there are no explicit facts stated that can be evaluated. The summary appears to be referencing a potential interaction where someone offers to provide a newsfeed for summarization. No numerical predictions or data about conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025 are included in the summary itself.
Here’s how that breaks down based on the tasks you specified:
1. **Fact: “Of course! Please go ahead and provide the newsfeed, and I’ll summarize it for you.”**
– **Truthfulness (External and Internal Consistency):** This is not a fact related to the question about conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025. It’s a statement indicating readiness to process further information.
– **Importance to Resolution of Question:** Unimportant. This statement does not contribute any information towards resolving how many conflict deaths will occur in 2025 in Sudan.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False. The content of this statement lacks relevance to determining conflict deaths in Sudan.
Overall, the summary at hand has no direct connection or pertinent factual content to assess conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025. It seems to be part of a dialogue setup rather than containing any informational content related to the question asked.
Fact-checked summary:
The summary provided lacks any explicit factual information or data regarding the number of conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025. It appears to be part of an interaction where an offer is made to summarize a newsfeed if provided, but no relevant numerical predictions or data about conflict deaths are included. This indicates that there is no direct connection or pertinent factual content available in the summary to address the question about conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.3, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.35, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.2, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.1, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.04, “More than 12000”: 0.01] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.02, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.2, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.18, “More than 12000”: 0.2] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 2%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 16%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 21%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 26%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 19%
* More than 12000: 16%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across the AI summaries highlights the challenges in predicting conflict deaths in Sudan due to its volatile political and social climate. The ongoing civil war, continuing since 2023, combined with historical conflict patterns, suggests a potential death toll centered around 5,000-8,000 annually, although this is subject to significant uncertainty. Some summaries note that international efforts towards peace processes are underway, but the unpredictable nature of such conflicts and the lack of reliable, up-to-date data complicate precise forecasting. Factors such as sudden peace agreements, international interventions, or unexpectedly intense escalations could dramatically alter these estimates. This inherent uncertainty is compounded by difficulties in data collection from conflict zones, leading to possible inaccuracies in reporting the actual situation.
Runtime: 177 seconds for both questions on this page
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Interactive VIEWS dashboard here.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 28%
* between 172 and 205: 44%
* between 206 and 240: 22%
* more than 240: 6%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most Recent/Critical Updates:
Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, is set to be sworn in as Canada’s 24th Prime Minister on Friday, following his victory in the Liberal Party leadership race. He will replace Justin Trudeau and takes office amid escalating trade tensions with the United States under Trump.
Political Landscape:
– Recent polls show the gap has narrowed between the Liberals and Conservatives, with Conservative Party support declining in recent months.
– The emergence of Trump as a factor in Canadian politics appears to have benefited the Liberals, with his threats and trade war rhetoric reportedly helping to revitalize Liberal support.
– Carney is characterized as an “unflappable technocrat” with extensive public service experience, particularly noted for his climate change expertise and ability to bridge the financial sector with climate initiatives.
Context:
The political transition comes at a crucial time as Canada faces:
1. An ongoing trade dispute with the U.S.
2. Climate change policy challenges
3. Shifting domestic political dynamics, with Conservatives criticizing Carney as being “just like Justin” while the Liberal Party appears to be gaining momentum after previous polling struggles.
This represents a significant shift in Canadian leadership, with potential implications for both domestic policy and international relations, particularly regarding climate change and U.S.-Canada relations.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“In the wake of a significant political shift in Canada, Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, is set to become the country’s 24th Prime Minister after winning the Liberal Party leadership race. This transition occurs as Canada navigates heightened trade tensions with the U.S. under Trump and grapples with climate change challenges. Recent polls indicate a narrowing gap between the Liberals and Conservatives, with Liberal support reportedly bolstered by Trump’s trade rhetoric. Carney is recognized for his expertise in climate change and his ability to integrate financial and environmental strategies. As he replaces Justin Trudeau, the political landscape is marked by Conservative Party critiques juxtaposed with a Liberal resurgence, suggesting significant implications for Canada’s domestic and international policies. However, given the newsfeed’s potential unreliability, these developments should be viewed with caution.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here are the specific facts stated in the summary, along with their correctness, importance to the resolution of the question, and relevance:
1. **Mark Carney is set to become Canada’s 24th Prime Minister after winning the Liberal Party leadership race.**
– **True/False:** False. As of the last update, Mark Carney has not won the Liberal Party leadership race nor become the Prime Minister of Canada. [Carolyn’s note: True. Carney has been elected and will be sworn in as Prime Minister Friday, March 14.]
– **Importance:** Critical. If true, this would directly affect the political landscape and context for the election.
– **Relevance:** True. The leadership of a major party is relevant to its electoral performance.
2. **Canada is navigating heightened trade tensions with the U.S. under Trump.**
– **True/False:** Outdated. Trade tensions did exist during Trump’s presidency, but Joe Biden is currently the U.S. President. [Carolyn’s note: True. The fact checking system is using outdated information today.]
– **Importance:** Lesser. While trade tensions can affect political climates, they are not directly tied to election outcomes in Canada.
– **Relevance:** True. The external environment can indirectly influence political scenarios.
3. **The gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is narrowing according to recent polls.**
– **True/False:** Could be true depending on the date of the polling data, but without specific recent data, it isn’t verifiable.
– **Importance:** Important. Polls suggest public opinion, which is relevant in predicting election outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True. Public opinion can impact election results.
4. **Liberal support is reportedly bolstered by Trump’s trade rhetoric.**
– **True/False:** Likely outdated or speculatively false as Trump’s influence is diminished under the current U.S. administration. [Carolyn’s note: the fact checking system clearly was unable to access more recent information.]
– **Importance:** Lesser. While it might impact sentiment, it doesn’t provide direct insights into Canadian election predictions.
– **Relevance:** False. This is largely speculative and outdated, impacting its relevance to current events.
5. **Mark Carney is recognized for his expertise in climate change and financial strategies.**
– **True/False:** True. Carney has notable expertise in these areas, as evidenced by his roles and public statements.
– **Importance:** Important. His expertise could influence the party’s platform and electoral appeal.
– **Relevance:** True. Relevant, as it might affect the Liberal Party’s strength and campaign focus.
6. **Mark Carney is replacing Justin Trudeau.**
– **True/False:** False. Justin Trudeau was the Prime Minister and Liberal leader as of the last update.
– **Importance:** Critical. This misrepresentation affects the situation analysis for the upcoming election. [Carolyn’s note: True and Critical. As Mark Carney is scheduled to be sworn in as Prime Minister tomorrow, this is not a misrepresentation.]
– **Relevance:** True. Leadership change is highly relevant to the party’s electoral prospects.
7. **The political landscape is marked by Conservative critiques and a Liberal resurgence.**
– **True/False:** Potentially true or speculative. This phrasing lacks concrete evidence but could reflect observed political dynamics.
– **Importance:** Important. The political dynamic and public narrative can influence voter behavior.
– **Relevance:** True. Understanding the landscape can provide context for election forecasts.
Note: The analysis above is limited by the incomplete and speculative nature of the summary and should be taken with caution when used to infer election outcomes or predictions.
Fact-checked summary:
The fact-checking analysis provides limited verifiable insights regarding the potential outcome of Canada’s next federal parliamentary election for the Conservative Party. However, it confirms that Mark Carney is recognized for his expertise in climate change and financial strategies, which is important as it could influence the Liberal Party’s platform and electoral appeal, thereby impacting the broader political landscape. Although there is an indication of a narrowing gap between the Liberals and Conservatives according to polls, without specific recent data, this cannot be definitively stated as true. This poll information would be important because public opinion can significantly impact election results.
Understanding the political dynamics, including any potential Liberal resurgence or Conservative critiques, is relevant for contextualizing the election, but such assessments remain speculative without concrete evidence.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.5, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 28%
* between 172 and 205: 44%
* between 206 and 240: 22%
* more than 240: 6%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The analyses suggest that upcoming Canadian elections could be competitive, with the Conservative Party facing challenges in expanding its base, particularly in urban areas and Quebec, despite historical patterns and a recent base level of support seen in the last election. The presence of influential figures like Mark Carney may strengthen the Liberal Party’s platform, adding unpredictability to the electoral results. Factors that could invalidate these predictions include shifts in public opinion due to unforeseen events, policy changes, or political scandals. Additionally, the impact of third-party dynamics, polling reliability, and the influence of strategic voting are noted as potential contributors to a shifting political landscape. Overall, while the Conservative Party may see moderate gains, the uncertainty surrounding key factors highlights the complexity and volatility of predicting electoral outcomes.
All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
