Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast details, Aug. 27, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025?

Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:

Probability: 3%

36–45 minutes read Condensed version here —>

Perplexity response:
{think}

Alright, I need to analyze this query about whether there will be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025.

Looking at the search results:
1. The first result is from August 21, 2025 (which is within the timeframe) and talks about the UN chief renewing ceasefire calls amid massive destruction of Gaza City. This suggests ongoing conflict and calls for ceasefire, but doesn’t indicate an actual ceasefire was declared.
2. The second result is from August 26, 2025 about Israel planning to take control of Gaza City, which would suggest escalation rather than ceasefire.
3. The third result is about Niall Ferguson and doesn’t seem relevant.
4. The fourth result mentions a ceasefire between Druze leaders and Syrian government, but this is about Syria, not Hamas.
5. The fifth result mentions Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi assessing that “the ceasefire with Israel was ‘fragile’” on July 19, 2025 – this could be referring to an existing ceasefire that was fragile.

Based on the search results, I can see evidence of:
– Ongoing conflict and destruction in Gaza (August 21, 2025)
– Israel planning to take control of Gaza City (August 26, 2025)
– UN calls for ceasefire (August 21, 2025)
– A reference to a “fragile” ceasefire from July 2025

The current dat e is August 27, 2025, so August is almost over. Based on these search results, it appears there’s ongoing conflict rather than a ceasefire being declared in August 2025.
I need to plan what information would be most relevant:
1. Current status of Israel-Hamas conflict
2. Recent ceasefire negotiations or attempts
3. International mediation efforts
4. Military actions and escalations
5. Statements from key parties (Israel, Hamas, mediators)
Let me structure this response as requested, starting with 10 citations and their summaries, then providing analysis. Looking at this forecasting question about a potential Israel-Hamas ceasefire in August 2025, I need to analyze recent developments in the conflict, ceasefire negotiations, and relevant military and diplomatic activities.
## Key Citations and Sources
**1. UN News – “Amid massive destruction of Gaza City, UN chief renews ceasefire call”**
*Date: August 21, 2025*
The UN chief renewed calls for a ceasefire amid reports of systematic destruction of Gaza City, with over 50 attacks on residential buildings since August 8. The report describes “total destruction” of urban areas in Gaza City and continued military operations. OHCHR warned of the city’s “systematic destruction” with families trapped due to continuous bombardment.
**2. Taxtmi News – “Israel plans to take control of Gaza City, drawing international condemnation”**
*Date: August 26, 2025*
Israel announced plans to take over Gaza City, drawing international condemnation and Palestinian rejection. The decision by Israel’s security cabinet escalated the conflict and raised concerns over humanitarian impacts and hostage situations. Multiple countries including Germany suspended military exports, and mediators are working on a framework involving hostage releases and force withdrawals.
**3. International Crisis Group – Tehran Flashpoint**
*Date: August 25, 2025*
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi assessed that a ceasefire with Israel was “fragile” as of July 19, 2025, suggesting there may have been some form of ceasefire agreement that was precarious. This indicates previous ceasefire attempts that were unstable and potentially breaking down.
**4. International Crisis Group – Golan Heights and South/West Syria**
*Date: August 21, 2025*
Following a ceasefire between Druze leaders and the Syrian government, Netanyahu announced Syrian forces had retreated to Damascus. This shows ceasefire activity in the broader regional context, though specifically related to Syria rather than Hamas.
**5. Hoover Institution – Niall Ferguson Profile**
*Date: August 22, 2025*
Referenced for expert analysis context, though the specific content about Trump’s second term and economic impacts provides limited direct relevance to the Israel-Hamas situation.
## Current Conflict Status
The evidence from late August 2025 indicates **active escalation rather than ceasefire**. As of August 21, 2025, the UN reported systematic destruction of Gaza City with over 50 attacks on residential buildings since August 8[1]. The situation appears to be intensifying rather than de-escalating, with reports of “total destruction” of urban areas and continued military operations[1].
Most significantly, on August 26, 2025, Israel announced plans to take control of Gaza City entirely, drawing international condemnation[2]. This represents a major escalation that would be incompatible with a ceasefire declaration.
## Ceasefire Negotiation Context
There are indications that ceasefire frameworks are being discussed by regional mediators, involving hostage releases, withdrawal of forces, and potential interim governance arrangements[2]. However, these appear to be preliminary negotiations facing significant challenges regarding disarmament and political control[2].
A reference to a “fragile” ceasefire from July 2025 suggests there may have been previous ceasefire attempts that proved unstable[5]. The characterization of any prior ceasefire as “fragile” indicates the tenuous nature of peace agreements in this conflict.
## International Response
Multiple countries, including Germany, have suspended military exports due to difficulties in achieving a ceasefire and concerns over hostage situations[2]. International calls for diplomatic resolution and a two-state solution continue, but these appear to be aspirational rather than indicating imminent ceasefire success[2].
## Assessment
Given that we are now at August 27, 2025 (near the end of the month), the evidence suggests **no ceasefire was declared in August 2025**. Instead, the month saw significant escalation with Israel’s announced plans to take control of Gaza City and continued systematic destruction of urban areas. While ceasefire negotiations may be ongoing through regional mediators, the military actions and policy announcements in late August indicate active conflict rather than ceasefire implementation.
Grok response:
Below is a detailed rundown of the most relevant news and context for the superforecaster’s question: “Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025?” As a research assistant, my role is to provide balanced, evidence-based information from recent sources without generating forecasts. This question falls under a Political Event category, so I prioritize recent news updates, statements from involved parties, and any indications of diplomatic progress or setbacks. I draw from a variety of sources, including international news outlets, to cover perspectives from Israel, Hamas, and mediators like Egypt and Qatar.
First, I compiled a list of 10 citations based on the most recent and relevant sources available as of the current date (August 27, 2025). These include articles, reports, and posts that directly address ceasefire negotiations, military operations, and diplomatic efforts in August 2025. I prioritized sources from the past week, emphasizing those published in mid-to-late August. Each citation includes the title and description, date of publication, and a three-sentence summary of the relevant content.
### List of 10 Citations:
1. **Title and Description:** “2025 Gaza war ceasefire – Wikipedia” (A Wikipedia page summarizing ceasefire efforts in the ongoing Gaza conflict, including diplomatic negotiations and obstacles.)
**Date:** August 26, 2025.
**Summary:** This page details Egypt’s opposition to Israeli occupation of the Philadelphi corridor as a potential violation of the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, which could complicate ceasefire talks. It highlights how Netanyahu’s coalition reportedly decided against a deal in early September 2024, adding historical context to current negotiations. Recent updates note that mediators warned of disastrous repercussions from ongoing Israeli operations in Gaza City, emphasizing the fragility of talks in August 2025.
2. **Title and Description:** “Gaza war – Wikipedia” (An overview of the broader Gaza conflict, including military operations, casualties, and ceasefire attempts.)
**Date:** August 26, 2025.
**Summary:** The article estimates significant casualties, with a Lancet study projecting around 93,000 deaths from traumatic injuries by May 2025, underscoring the human cost that could pressure ceasefire negotiations. It describes the breakdown of a previous ceasefire in January 2025 and Israel’s subsequent military actions, including the Rafah offensive. Current sections note ongoing battles in Khan Yunis and the potential for a new truce, with Hamas facing international pressure to accept proposals.
3. **Title and Description:** “Israel Gaza war | Latest News & Updates | BBC News” (Live updates from BBC on the Israel-Gaza conflict, including ceasefire developments and military actions.)
**Date:** August 26, 2025 (last updated at 16:45:49).
**Summary:** The coverage reports on protesters blocking highways in Tel Aviv amid calls for a hostage deal and ceasefire, reflecting domestic Israeli pressure. It condemns an Israeli attack on a Gaza hospital that killed civilians, including journalists, which could escalate tensions and hinder negotiations. Updates indicate ongoing diplomatic efforts by mediators, with Hamas having accepted a proposal, but no final Israeli response as of late August.
4. **Title and Description:** “Israel to respond by Friday over Gaza truce plan accepted by Hamas | Israel-Gaza war | The Guardian” (An article on Hamas’s acceptance of a ceasefire proposal and Israel’s pending response.)
**Date:** August 19, 2025.
**Summary:** The piece outlines a US-backed ceasefire plan that Hamas accepted, which includes provisions for hostage releases and humanitarian aid, putting pressure on Israel to respond. It notes Egypt’s role in refusing to pass certain Israeli proposals due to objections, highlighting regional diplomatic tensions. Expert opinions from unnamed negotiators warn that continued Israeli operations could derail talks, with no confirmation of progress by the article’s publication.
5. **Title and Description:** “August 26, 2025: Israel-Hamas war, Gaza hostage deal protests, Nasser Hospital attack | CNN” (Real-time updates on the conflict, including protests and specific incidents.)
**Date:** August 26, 2025 (published at 15:11:38).
**Summary:** CNN reports nationwide protests in Israel demanding a hostage deal and ceasefire, amid reports of an attack on Nasser Hospital in Gaza that killed civilians. It details Hamas’s acceptance of a 60-day truce proposal earlier in the month, which includes hostage exchanges and aid delivery. Analysts on the platform suggest that such incidents could either accelerate or stall negotiations, with mediators urging immediate action.
6. **Title and Description:** “Hamas strategy is end war with Israel and survive | NPR” (An analysis of Hamas’s approach to the conflict and ceasefire negotiations.)
**Date:** August 21, 2025.
**Summary:** The article explains Hamas’s endorsement of a ceasefire deal as a survival strategy amid pressure from Arab countries, aiming to end hostilities and secure humanitarian aid. It includes expert opinions from regional analysts who view this as a tactical shift, potentially influenced by mounting casualties and displacement in Gaza. However, it notes Israel’s reluctance to fully commit, with ongoing operations complicating the path to a declaration.
7. **Title and Description:** “Palestinians flee Gaza City districts as Israel says first stages of offensive have begun | BBC News” (Reporting on military escalations and their impact on ceasefire talks.)
**Date:** August 21, 2025 (published at 02:52:15).
**Summary:** BBC covers the displacement of hundreds of thousands in Gaza City due to an Israeli offensive, which an IDF spokesman claims targets Hamas infrastructure and could affect negotiations. It highlights warnings from human rights groups about the humanitarian crisis, including potential war crimes, as a factor pressuring mediators. The article suggests that such actions might undermine recent ceasefire proposals accepted by Hamas.
8. **Title and Description:** “Hamas accepts proposed deal for ceasefire with Israel and hostage release, Egyptian source says | Reuters” (News on Hamas’s acceptance of a ceasefire framework.)
**Date:** Approximately August 20, 2025 (1 week ago from current date).
**Summary:** Reuters reports that Hamas approved a proposal involving a 60-day ceasefire and hostage releases, with Egyptian mediators playing a key role. It details Israeli demands for security control over parts of Gaza, which could be a sticking point. Expert sources, including diplomats, express optimism but caution that Israel’s military incursions might delay implementation.
9. **Title and Description:** “What to know about talks on Israel-Hamas ceasefire | AP News” (A summary of the latest ceasefire negotiations and their implications.)
**Date:** Approximately August 20, 2025 (1 week ago from current date).
**Summary:** AP News outlines the 22-month war’s context, with Hamas accepting a mediator-proposed ceasefire that includes aid and prisoner exchanges. It incorporates statements from U.S. officials supporting the deal, indicating international pressure on Israel. Analysts warn that without mutual concessions, such as Israeli withdrawal from key areas, a declaration remains uncertain.
10. **Title and Description:** “Posts on X reflecting sentiment around ceasefire proposals” (Social media posts from verified accounts like Al Jazeera English and BBC News, discussing Hamas’s acceptance and ongoing talks; treated as inconclusive public sentiment.)
**Date:** Various in mid-August 2025 (e.g., August 18-23, 2025).
**Summary:** These posts, including from news organizations, express widespread sentiment that Hamas has accepted a ceasefire proposal, with calls for Israel to respond to end the 60-day war pause. They highlight public pressure from protesters and analysts, though as social media content, they reflect unverified claims and opinions rather than confirmed events. Experts in the posts caution that ongoing military actions could override diplomatic efforts, emphasizing the fluid nature of the situation.
### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Context
Based on the citations above, recent updates indicate significant movement toward a potential ceasefire in August 2025, though obstacles remain. Hamas has publicly accepted at least one ceasefire proposal (as reported in citations 4, 6, 8, and 9), which includes a 60-day truce, hostage releases, and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza. This development, first noted around August 18-21, 2025, stems from mediation efforts by Egypt and Qatar, with U.S. involvement adding international pressure. However, Israel’s response has been cautious, with reports of continued military operations in Gaza City (citations 3, 7, and 10), including offensives that have displaced civilians and targeted infrastructure, potentially violating the spirit of ongoing talks.
Key recent updates suggesting progress include Hamas’s endorsement of proposals, as confirmed by Egyptian sources and echoed in multiple outlets (citations 4 and 8). For instance, posts on X from credible accounts like Al Jazeera English and BBC News reflect growing public and expert sentiment favoring a deal, though these are inconclusive and should be viewed alongside verified news. Expert opinions from authoritative sources, such as negotiators cited in The Guardian and NPR (citations 4 and 6), warn that Israel’s demands for security control and Hamas’s insistence on withdrawal could lead to breakdowns, with some analysts suggesting that humanitarian crises—estimated at over 93,000 deaths by May 2025 (citation 2)—might force concessions.
There are no specific polling data or approval ratings directly tied to this question in the recent sources, as this is not an election-focused event, but domestic protests in Israel (citations 3 and 5) indicate public dissatisfaction that could influence policy. No authoritative resolution source (e.g., a UN declaration) is available for direct access, but ongoing reports from BBC and CNN provide the latest values, such as Hamas’s acceptance of a proposal as recently as August 26, 2025. Historical context from Wikipedia (citations 1 and 2) shows seasonal fluctuations in conflict intensity, with escalations often following failed truces, but no forward-looking guidance is available. This information is current as of August 27, 2025, and should be used solely for contextual analysis.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[]
Gemini Binary response:
**Reasoning Rationale:**
The question asks whether a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025. Today’s date is August 27, 2025, meaning the event must occur within the remaining four days of August (August 27-31).
My analysis is based on recent information up to August 26, 2025, primarily focusing on the stated actions and positions of both parties and international mediators.
1. **Hamas’s Position:** Multiple sources indicate that Hamas accepted a ceasefire proposal around mid-August (August 19-20, 2025). This proposal includes a 60-day truce, hostage releases, and humanitarian aid. This is a necessary precondition for a ceasefire, but not sufficient.
2. **Israel’s Position and Actions:** This is the critical factor.
* As of August 26, 2025, Israel’s final response to Hamas’s acceptance of the proposal was pending or not definitively positive.
* Crucially, on August 26, 2025, Israel announced plans to take control of Gaza City, a decision that drew international condemnation. This objective signifies an escalation of military operations, directly contradicting the declaration of an immediate ceasefire.
* Reports from August 21, 2025, detail ongoing “massive destruction” and “total destruction” of urban areas in Gaza City, with the UN chief renewing ceasefire calls amidst continuous bombardment. Another report from August 21, 2025, confirms that Palestinians were fleeing Gaza City districts as Israel stated the “first stages of offensive have begun”. These reports indicate active and intensifying military operations.
3. **Timeframe Constraint:** With only four days remaining in August, any declaration would need to occur very rapidly. The current trajectory of military escalation by Israel, alongside its stated objective to take control of Gaza City, makes a formal ceasefire declaration within this narrow window highly improbable. A ceasefire typically involves a cessation of hostilities, which is directly opposed to Israel’s current operational goals.
4. **Nature of a “Declared” Ceasefire:** For a ceasefire to be “declared,” it would require a formal, public announcement by both Israel and Hamas, or a recognized mediating body on their behalf, stating that a ceasefire is in effect. While negotiations are ongoing and Hamas has accepted a proposal, Israel’s active military posture suggests a lack of immediate intent to declare such a cessation of hostilities.
**Assumptions and their potential for incorrectness:**
1. **Assumption 1: Israel’s publicly stated intention to take control of Gaza City, announced on August 26, 2025, represents a firm, immediate military objective that will not be superseded by a ceasefire declaration within the next four days.**
* **Probability of incorrectness:** 5%. While Israel has shown a determination to pursue its objectives, a sudden diplomatic breakthrough could theoretically lead to a strategic shift. However, for such a significant policy reversal to occur and be declared within 4 days, without any current public indication, is unlikely.
2. **Assumption 2: The ongoing and intensifying military operations in Gaza City, reported up to August 26, 2025, are indicative of Israel’s current unwillingness to declare a ceasefire within the month of August.**
* **Probability of incorrectness:** 7%. Military operations can sometimes be used as leverage in negotiations, and a ceasefire could theoretically be declared even amidst limited ongoing actions. However, the scale and stated objectives of the current operations suggest a primary focus on military gains rather than an imminent cessation of hostilities.
Given the overwhelming evidence pointing to active military escalation by Israel and the very limited time remaining in August, the probability of a ceasefire being declared in this specific timeframe is exceedingly low. Hamas’s acceptance is a necessary step, but Israel’s actions and lack of a definitive positive response indicate a strong unlikelihood of a declaration by August 31, 2025.
Probability: 3%
The extracted probability is: 3%
GPT Binary response:
Reasoning and evidence
– What the recent reporting shows (mid–late August 2025)
– Multiple credible outlets (Reuters/AP/BBC/Guardian/CNN) reported that Hamas had accepted a mediator-proposed ceasefire/hostage-exchange framework in mid–late August (reports clustered around ~Aug 18–21). That meaningfully increases the chance a deal could be declared, relative to a baseline of no negotiations.
– At the same time, late-August reporting (Aug 21–26) documents active Israeli operations in Gaza City, large-scale destruction, and an Israeli security-cabinet decision to plan to take control of Gaza City (Aug 26). International actors (UN, mediators, some EU states) are publicly urging a ceasefire but also condemning escalation.
– As of Aug 27 there was widespread reporting that Israel had not formally agreed to or declared a truce, and that Palestinians/mediators were still negotiating implementation details (hostage sequencing, force posture, geographic controls). Time remaining in August is very short (Aug 28–31) for a declaration to occur after today.
– How I weigh the evidence
– Positive signal: Hamas acceptance of a framework is a genuine enabling condition for a ceasefire declaration; mediators (Egypt/Qatar/U.S.) are actively engaged. This raises probability above near-zero.
– Negative signals: Israel’s recent operational posture (announcement to take Gaza City), domestic political constraints, and the complexity of sequencing hostage releases/withdrawal/security guarantees make a near-term Israeli declaration unlikely. Operational escalations during negotiations often delay or derail formal declarations.
– Timing effect: The question’s resolution window is extremely short (only a few days). Even when parties have agreed in principle, formal declarations are often delayed by 24–72+ hours for verification, mechanics and political signaling. With fewer than five days left in the month, the time constraint materially lowers likelihood.
– Base rates and analogues
– Historically, ceasefires in this conflict often require multiple days to move from “agreement in principle” to a formal public declaration (mediator shuttle diplomacy, hostages lists, force withdrawal timetables). Even when parties accept frameworks, implementation declarations frequently slip beyond the near-term window.
– Given that only ~35% of such binary forecasting questions historically resolve positively in similar settings (my prior competition calibration), and given the short time remaining, I downweight optimistic signals.
– Uncertainty and error correction
– I account for my tendency to be overconfident by widening uncertainty and reducing extreme probabilities. I also give extra weight to the “no change” default because of the very small remaining time window and evidence of escalation.
Key assumptions whose failure would most change the forecast
1) Assumption: Israel will publicly accept and declare the mediator-proposed framework within the remaining days of August if Hamas remains on board.
– Probability this assumption is incorrect (i.e., Israel will NOT publicly accept and declare in time): 85%.
– Rationale: Israeli military actions and political constraints make a fast public declaration unlikely; many press reports a few days ago showed Israel had not agreed publicly.
2) Assumption: Hamas’s acceptance will remain stable and it will not withdraw acceptance or demand material changes in the coming days.
– Probability this assumption is incorrect (i.e., Hamas withdraws or conditions acceptance so it’s effectively nullified): 20%.
– Rationale: Hamas seemed to accept a framework, but internal politics or new battlefield events could change that.
3) Assumption: Mediators (Egypt/Qatar/U.S.) can bridge remaining Israeli-Hamas gaps quickly enough to produce a formal declaration before Aug 31.
– Probability this assumption is incorrect (i.e., mediators fail to secure an imminent declaration): 75%.
– Rationale: Historical shuttle diplomacy often takes longer than a few days when sequencing hostages and withdrawals is involved.
How these assumptions affect the final probability
– If assumption (1) fails (most likely), the event cannot occur. That dominates the forecast.
– If (1) holds but (3) fails, talks may continue but without a formal declaration in the next 4 days.
– If (1) and (3) both hold and (2) holds (all favorable), a declaration within the window is plausible. Multiplying their complement probabilities (15% * 25% * 80% ≈ 3%) is a conservative lower-bound scenario for all favorable conditions aligning quickly — but this multiplication understates the observed positive signals (Hamas acceptance) and mediator intensity, so I calibrate upward from that raw product.
Final calibration and judgement
– Positive signals (Hamas acceptance; active mediation) push probability upward from a low base.
– Strong negative signals (Israeli operational escalation, political constraints, very short time window) push it down substantially.
– Balancing these, and correcting for overconfidence, I assign a modest but non-negligible probability that a formal ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas will be publicly declared in the remaining days of August 2025.
Probability: 15%
The extracted probability is: 15%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
Looking at this forecasting question, I need to carefully analyze whether a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas specifically within the remaining days of August 2025 (August 27-31).
## Current Situation Analysis
The evidence from multiple sources paints a clear picture of **active military escalation** rather than ceasefire progress:
1. **August 21, 2025**: The UN reported “systematic destruction” of Gaza City with over 50 attacks on residential buildings since August 8. The UN chief renewed ceasefire calls amid this destruction.
2. **August 26, 2025** (yesterday): Israel announced plans to take complete control of Gaza City, representing a major escalation. This drew international condemnation and indicates Israel is pursuing military objectives rather than ceasefire.
3. **Current Military Operations**: BBC reports (August 21) describe the “first stages of offensive” beginning with mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza City districts.
## Ceasefire Negotiation Status
While there have been diplomatic efforts:
– Hamas reportedly accepted a ceasefire proposal around August 18-20, including a 60-day truce framework with hostage releases
– However, Israel has not provided a definitive positive response
– Egyptian mediators have objected to some Israeli demands, particularly regarding control of the Philadelphi corridor
– The August 26 decision to take control of Gaza City appears to be Israel’s de facto rejection of current ceasefire proposals
## Critical Timeline Constraints
Today is August 27, 2025, leaving only **4 days** (August 28-31) for a ceasefire to be declared. This extremely short window is crucial because:
1. Ceasefire negotiations typically require multiple rounds of talks, often taking weeks or months
2. The most recent escalation (Israel’s Gaza City takeover announcement) was just yesterday
3. No scheduled high-level mediation meetings are mentioned in the sources
4. Both parties would need to agree AND formally declare the ceasefire within this timeframe
## Key Assumptions and Their Failure Probabilities
**Assumption 1**: Israel’s August 26 announcement to take control of Gaza City represents genuine military intent rather than negotiating posture
– Failure probability: 15% (it could be a pressure tactic)
– Impact if wrong: Would increase ceasefire probability moderately
**Assumption 2**: The 4-day window is insufficient for diplomatic breakthrough given current escalation
– Failure probability: 10% (surprise diplomatic interventions do occur)
– Impact if wrong: Would significantly increase ceasefire probability
**Assumption 3**: Hamas’s acceptance of proposals is still valid despite Israel’s recent actions
– Failure probability: 25% (Hamas might withdraw acceptance after Gaza City announcement)
– Impact if wrong: Would further decrease already low ceasefire probability
## Historical Context and Base Rates
– Previous “fragile” ceasefire mentioned from July 2025 apparently collapsed
– The conflict has been ongoing for 22 months with multiple failed ceasefire attempts
– Historical base rate for last-minute ceasefire declarations after major escalation announcements is very low
– The pattern shows ceasefire negotiations typically stall or fail after military escalation announcements
## Probability Assessment
Given:
– Active military escalation as of August 26
– Only 4 days remaining in August
– Israel’s non-response to Hamas’s ceasefire acceptance
– International condemnation but no breakthrough mediation
– Historical patterns of failed negotiations after escalations
The probability of a ceasefire being declared in the remaining days of August 2025 is extremely low. While surprise diplomatic breakthroughs can occur, the combination of the very short timeframe, recent military escalation, and lack of positive Israeli response makes a declaration highly unlikely.
Adjusting for potential overconfidence and considering that only about 35% of forecasting questions historically resolve positively, and given the overwhelming evidence of escalation rather than de-escalation:
**Probability: 3%**
The extracted probability is: 3%
All predictions: [3, 3, 15]
Filtered predictions: [3]
Median reasoning:
**Reasoning Rationale:**
The question asks whether a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025. Today’s date is August 27, 2025, meaning the event must occur within the remaining four days of August (August 27-31).
My analysis is based on recent information up to August 26, 2025, primarily focusing on the stated actions and positions of both parties and international mediators.
1. **Hamas’s Position:** Multiple sources indicate that Hamas accepted a ceasefire proposal around mid-August (August 19-20, 2025). This proposal includes a 60-day truce, hostage releases, and humanitarian aid. This is a necessary precondition for a ceasefire, but not sufficient.
2. **Israel’s Position and Actions:** This is the critical factor.
* As of August 26, 2025, Israel’s final response to Hamas’s acceptance of the proposal was pending or not definitively positive.
* Crucially, on August 26, 2025, Israel announced plans to take control of Gaza City, a decision that drew international condemnation. This objective signifies an escalation of military operations, directly contradicting the declaration of an immediate ceasefire.
* Reports from August 21, 2025, detail ongoing “massive destruction” and “total destruction” of urban areas in Gaza City, with the UN chief renewing ceasefire calls amidst continuous bombardment. Another report from August 21, 2025, confirms that Palestinians were fleeing Gaza City districts as Israel stated the “first stages of offensive have begun”. These reports indicate active and intensifying military operations.
3. **Timeframe Constraint:** With only four days remaining in August, any declaration would need to occur very rapidly. The current trajectory of military escalation by Israel, alongside its stated objective to take control of Gaza City, makes a formal ceasefire declaration within this narrow window highly improbable. A ceasefire typically involves a cessation of hostilities, which is directly opposed to Israel’s current operational goals.
4. **Nature of a “Declared” Ceasefire:** For a ceasefire to be “declared,” it would require a formal, public announcement by both Israel and Hamas, or a recognized mediating body on their behalf, stating that a ceasefire is in effect. While negotiations are ongoing and Hamas has accepted a proposal, Israel’s active military posture suggests a lack of immediate intent to declare such a cessation of hostilities.
**Assumptions and their potential for incorrectness:**
1. **Assumption 1: Israel’s publicly stated intention to take control of Gaza City, announced on August 26, 2025, represents a firm, immediate military objective that will not be superseded by a ceasefire declaration within the next four days.**
* **Probability of incorrectness:** 5%. While Israel has shown a determination to pursue its objectives, a sudden diplomatic breakthrough could theoretically lead to a strategic shift. However, for such a significant policy reversal to occur and be declared within 4 days, without any current public indication, is unlikely.
2. **Assumption 2: The ongoing and intensifying military operations in Gaza City, reported up to August 26, 2025, are indicative of Israel’s current unwillingness to declare a ceasefire within the month of August.**
* **Probability of incorrectness:** 7%. Military operations can sometimes be used as leverage in negotiations, and a ceasefire could theoretically be declared even amidst limited ongoing actions. However, the scale and stated objectives of the current operations suggest a primary focus on military gains rather than an imminent cessation of hostilities.
Given the overwhelming evidence pointing to active military escalation by Israel and the very limited time remaining in August, the probability of a ceasefire being declared in this specific timeframe is exceedingly low. Hamas’s acceptance is a necessary step, but Israel’s actions and lack of a definitive positive response indicate a strong unlikelihood of a declaration by August 31, 2025.
Probability: 3%
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: 0.03,
“probability_yes_per_category”: null,
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
**Reasoning Rationale:**
The question asks whether a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025. Today’s date is August 27, 2025, meaning the event must occur within the remaining four days of August (August 27-31).
My analysis is based on recent information up to August 26, 2025, primarily focusing on the stated actions and positions of both parties and international mediators.
1. **Hamas’s Position:** Multiple sources indicate that Hamas accepted a ceasefire proposal around mid-August (August 19-20, 2025). This proposal includes a 60-day truce, hostage releases, and humanitarian aid. This is a necessary precondition for a ceasefire, but not sufficient.
2. **Israel’s Position and Actions:** This is the critical factor.
* As of August 26, 2025, Israel’s final response to Hamas’s acceptance of the proposal was pending or not definitively positive.
* Crucially, on August 26, 2025, Israel announced plans to take control of Gaza City, a decision that drew international condemnation. This objective signifies an escalation of military operations, directly contradicting the declaration of an immediate ceasefire.
* Reports from August 21, 2025, detail ongoing “massive destruction” and “total destruction” of urban areas in Gaza City, with the UN chief renewing ceasefire calls amidst continuous bombardment. Another report from August 21, 2025, confirms that Palestinians were fleeing Gaza City districts as Israel stated the “first stages of offensive have begun”. These reports indicate active and intensifying military operations.
3. **Timeframe Constraint:** With only four days remaining in August, any declaration would need to occur very rapidly. The current trajectory of military escalation by Israel, alongside its stated objective to take control of Gaza City, makes a formal ceasefire declaration within this narrow window highly improbable. A ceasefire typically involves a cessation of hostilities, which is directly opposed to Israel’s current operational goals.
4. **Nature of a “Declared” Ceasefire:** For a ceasefire to be “declared,” it would require a formal, public announcement by both Israel and Hamas, or a recognized mediating body on their behalf, stating that a ceasefire is in effect. While negotiations are ongoing and Hamas has accepted a proposal, Israel’s active military posture suggests a lack of immediate intent to declare such a cessation of hostilities.

**Assumptions and their potential for incorrectness:**
1. **Assumption 1: Israel’s publicly stated intention to take control of Gaza City, announced on August 26, 2025, represents a firm, immediate military objective that will not be superseded by a ceasefire declaration within the next four days.**
* **Probability of incorrectness:** 5%. While Israel has shown a determination to pursue its objectives, a sudden diplomatic breakthrough could theoretically lead to a strategic shift. However, for such a significant policy reversal to occur and be declared within 4 days, without any current public indication, is unlikely.
2. **Assumption 2: The ongoing and intensifying military operations in Gaza City, reported up to August 26, 2025, are indicative of Israel’s current unwillingness to declare a ceasefire within the month of August.**
* **Probability of incorrectness:** 7%. Military operations can sometimes be used as leverage in negotiations, and a ceasefire could theoretically be declared even amidst limited ongoing actions. However, the scale and stated objectives of the current operations suggest a primary focus on military gains rather than an imminent cessation of hostilities.

Given the overwhelming evidence pointing to active military escalation by Israel and the very limited time remaining in August, the probability of a ceasefire being declared in this specific timeframe is exceedingly low. Hamas’s acceptance is a necessary step, but Israel’s actions and lack of a definitive positive response indicate a strong unlikelihood of a declaration by August 31, 2025.

Probability: 3%