How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2025 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai bot forecasts today:
Model value:
* less than 130: 57 %
* between 130 and 171): 35%
* between 172 and 205: 6%
* between 206 and 240: 1%
* over 240): 1%
Polling over the final week (CBC/Nanos/Ipsos averages) shows the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by roughly 3-5 pts nationally (≈38-40 % vs 42-43 %). 338Canada and other seat-modelers translate that gap into just 125-140 Conservative seats because:
• Vote efficiency: Liberal support is concentrated in seat-rich urban Ontario/Québec; Conservative votes pile up in already-safe Prairie ridings.
• Regional ceilings: Even an Alberta/Saskatchewan sweep only yields 50-odd seats; gains elsewhere are constrained by the Bloc in Québec and resurgent Liberals/NDP in Ontario & B.C.
• Momentum & turnout: Late-campaign issues (Trump tariff threats, Liberals scrapping the carbon tax) modestly helped the Liberals, shrinking the Conservatives’ path to pickups.
• History: Since 1988 no Canadian party has leapt from a 120-seat opposition to a 172-seat majority in a single election without leading the polls decisively—something the Conservatives clearly are not doing.
With 172 seats needed for a majority and virtually every reputable model giving them <10 % chance of even winning the most seats, a majority (172-205) is possible but very unlikely; anything above 205 borders on fantasy. Most probability mass therefore sits below 171, with a tilt toward the <130 bucket because a modest Liberal vote-share lead typically costs the Conservatives seats in Ontario/Atlantic Canada.
Option probabilities:
Option_A (<130): 57
Option_B (130-171): 35
Option_C (172-205): 6
Option_D (206-240): 1
Option_E (>240): 1
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: null,
“probability_yes_per_category”: {
“less than 130”: 0.4015686274509803,
“between 130 and 171”: 0.528921568627451,
“between 172 and 205”: 0.04720588235294118,
“between 206 and 240”: 0.012401960784313725,
“more than 240”: 0.009901960784313754
},
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
All Predictions:
[{‘less than 130’: 0.4752475247524752, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.43564356435643564, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0594059405940594, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.019801980198019802, ‘more than 240’: 0.009900990099009901}, {‘less than 130’: 0.4411764705882353, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5196078431372549, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.4117647058823529, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5392156862745099, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.35, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.55, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.07, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.02, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.57, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.35, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.06, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.01, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.27450980392156865, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.676470588235294, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}, {‘less than 130’: 0.21568627450980393, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.7450980392156863, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.14705882352941177, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.8039215686274509, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}]
Median Reasoning:
EXTRACTED_PROBABILITIES: [57, 35, 6, 1, 1]
Model’s Answer:
Polling over the final week (CBC/Nanos/Ipsos averages) shows the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by roughly 3-5 pts nationally (≈38-40 % vs 42-43 %). 338Canada and other seat-modelers translate that gap into just 125-140 Conservative seats because:
• Vote efficiency: Liberal support is concentrated in seat-rich urban Ontario/Québec; Conservative votes pile up in already-safe Prairie ridings.
• Regional ceilings: Even an Alberta/Saskatchewan sweep only yields 50-odd seats; gains elsewhere are constrained by the Bloc in Québec and resurgent Liberals/NDP in Ontario & B.C.
• Momentum & turnout: Late-campaign issues (Trump tariff threats, Liberals scrapping the carbon tax) modestly helped the Liberals, shrinking the Conservatives’ path to pickups.
• History: Since 1988 no Canadian party has leapt from a 120-seat opposition to a 172-seat majority in a single election without leading the polls decisively—something the Conservatives clearly are not doing.
With 172 seats needed for a majority and virtually every reputable model giving them <10 % chance of even winning the most seats, a majority (172-205) is possible but very unlikely; anything above 205 borders on fantasy. Most probability mass therefore sits below 171, with a tilt toward the <130 bucket because a modest Liberal vote-share lead typically costs the Conservatives seats in Ontario/Atlantic Canada.
Model value:
* less than 130: 57 %
* between 130 and 171): 35%
* between 172 and 205: 6%
* between 206 and 240: 1%
* over 240): 1%
Detailed answer here—>
