Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, July 30, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?

12–15 minutes read time

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 5%.

Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire July 2025
News from various sources:

In July 2025, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, mediated by the U.S. and held in Doha, Qatar, collapsed. President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, blamed Hamas for lack of cooperation, while Hamas claimed to be aiming for a practical ceasefire agreement. The conflict, ongoing since Israel’s response to a Hamas attack in October 2023, has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The blockade and military actions have led to widespread starvation, with children and journalists among those severely affected. UNICEF reported a significant rise in child malnutrition and fatalities. The situation prompted media organizations and the U.N. to call for easing of the blockade to allow aid into Gaza.

Talks have been complicated by Hamas’ demands for full Israeli military withdrawal and hostage release, while Israel insists on disarming Hamas first. The conflict has killed over 59,000 Palestinians.

International pressure has mounted on Israel, with Jordan, the UAE, and other nations considering aid airdrops into Gaza. However, Israel’s restrictions continue to hinder aid distribution, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Despite Israel allowing limited aid, U.N. agencies argue it’s insufficient.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu faces both internal political pressure and international scrutiny, affecting his handling of the conflict. The U.S. holds significant sway over Israel, but with limited application of pressure on its ally. Meanwhile, regional and international entities continue to search for viable solutions amid deteriorating conditions in Gaza.

Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s break down the specific facts from the summary, assess their correctness, and determine their importance and relevance to the question of whether a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025.
1. **Fact**: Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, mediated by the U.S., were held in Doha, Qatar, in July 2025.
– **Correctness**: True if consistent with prior reporting/context.
– **Importance**: Important, as these talks are directly related to the possibility of a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to the potential for a ceasefire declaration.
2. **Fact**: The talks collapsed.
– **Correctness**: True if consistent with prior reporting/context.
– **Importance**: Critical, as the collapse of talks directly impacts the outcome of achieving a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to the potential for a ceasefire declaration.
3. **Fact**: President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, blamed Hamas for lack of cooperation.
– **Correctness**: True if consistent with accurate records of statements made by Steve Witkoff.
– **Importance**: Important, as it speaks to the dynamics and potential blame within the talks.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to understanding the obstacles in the talks.
4. **Fact**: Hamas claimed to be aiming for a practical ceasefire agreement.
– **Correctness**: True if consistent with stated positions from Hamas.
– **Importance**: Important, as it reflects one side’s official stance.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to understanding the negotiating positions.
5. **Fact**: The conflict has been ongoing since Israel’s response to a Hamas attack in October 2023.
– **Correctness**: True if consistent with the timeline and historical events.
– **Importance**: Important, as it sets the context for the conflict’s duration.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to understanding the persistence of the conflict.
6. **Fact**: The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is severe due to blockade and military actions, leading to starvation.
– **Correctness**: True if consistent with verified reports from credible sources like UNICEF and other NGOs.
– **Importance**: Important, as humanitarian conditions often influence ceasefire decisions.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to pressure for resolving the conflict.
7. **Fact**: UNICEF reported a significant rise in child malnutrition and fatalities.
– **Correctness**: True if consistent with official UNICEF reports.
– **Importance**: Important, as humanitarian data can influence international response.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to understanding international calls for ceasefire or aid.
8. **Fact**: Talks were complicated by Hamas’ demands for full Israeli military withdrawal and hostage release, and Israel’s insistence on disarming Hamas first.
– **Correctness**: True if consistent with public demands by both parties.
– **Importance**: Critical, as these demands are central to the negotiation breakdown.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to understanding the negotiation impasse.
9. **Fact**: The conflict has killed over 59,000 Palestinians.
– **Correctness**: True if backed by credible data and reporting.
– **Importance**: Important, as casualty figures underscore the conflict’s severity.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to the urgency of ceasefire talks.
10. **Fact**: International pressure on Israel has mounted, with Jordan, the UAE, and others considering aid airdrops.
– **Correctness**: True if there are credible reports of such considerations.
– **Importance**: Important, as international actions can influence conflict resolution.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to the impact of outside pressure on ceasefire prospects.
11. **Fact**: Israel’s restrictions hinder aid distribution, exacerbating the crisis.
– **Correctness**: True if supported by reports from aid agencies and the U.N.
– **Importance**: Important, as it affects the humanitarian narrative.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to international calls for a ceasefire.
12. **Fact**: U.N. agencies argue that Israel’s limited aid is insufficient.
– **Correctness**: True if statements match official U.N. communications.
– **Importance**: Important, as this positions international organizations against Israel’s policies.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to international stance on the crisis.
13. **Fact**: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu faces internal political pressure and international scrutiny.
– **Correctness**: True if supported by political analysis and news reports.
– **Importance**: Important, as political dynamics affect decision-making.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to understanding influences on Israeli policy.
14. **Fact**: The U.S. holds significant sway over Israel but is applying limited pressure.
– **Correctness**: True if consistent with political analysis and statements.
– **Importance**: Important, as U.S. influence can impact ceasefire outcomes.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to potential U.S. role in achieving ceasefire.
15. **Fact**: Regional and international entities continue to search for solutions amid deteriorating conditions in Gaza.
– **Correctness**: True if supported by reported diplomatic efforts.
– **Importance**: Important, as it signals ongoing international efforts.
– **Relevance**: True, relevant to the broader context of ceasefire efforts.

In summary, each fact presents a piece of information relevant to understanding the dynamics, pressures, and challenges in achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The correctness of each fact has been assumed true if aligned with credible and available information.

Fact-checked summary:
In July 2025, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas took place in Doha, Qatar, mediated by the U.S., but ultimately collapsed. This outcome suggests significant challenges in reaching a ceasefire agreement. President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, blamed Hamas for a lack of cooperation, while Hamas expressed its aim for a practical ceasefire agreement, highlighting conflicting perspectives within the negotiations. The conflict’s continuation since October 2023 has resulted in severe humanitarian consequences, including a crisis in Gaza due to blockades and military actions, leading to starvation and a significant rise in child malnutrition and fatalities as reported by UNICEF. These humanitarian conditions have increased international pressure for resolution, with countries like Jordan and the UAE considering aid airdrops. However, Israeli restrictions have hindered aid distribution, exacerbating the crisis and drawing criticism from U.N. agencies. The negotiation efforts were further complicated by contrasting demands: Hamas called for a full Israeli military withdrawal and hostage release, whereas Israel insisted on disarming Hamas first. International and regional actors continue to search for solutions amid these deteriorating conditions, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu faces both internal political pressure and international scrutiny. Although the U.S. holds significant influence over Israel, it is applying limited pressure, affecting the dynamics of potential ceasefire outcomes.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 15%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Past success of ceasefire agreements in similar conflicts, 0.3
Current geopolitical pressures, 0.2
Internal political pressures within Israel, 0.2
Humanitarian crisis severity, 0.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors, a weighted model suggests: 0.3 * 0.2 (past success) + 0.2 * 0.3 (geopolitical) + 0.2 * 0.25 (internal pressure) + 0.3 * 0.4 (humanitarian crisis) = 0.165. Considering the sharp humanitarian situation, adjust upwards slightly.
Bayesian base rate: 18%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: case_based_decision_theory
Expected time (days) until question close: 60
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is calculated by considering past instances where similar ceasefire agreements in protracted conflicts were achieved. Historical precedent suggests ceasefire agreements are difficult due to entrenched positions and conflicting demands, particularly disarmament and withdrawal, which are core issues in the current situation.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Further detailed insights into internal discussions within Hamas and Israel, as well as a more defined international community stance, particularly unexpected shifts in U.S. diplomatic strategies, would aid the forecast quality.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
The current humanitarian crisis is extraordinarily severe, which might increase international pressure to levels unseen before. Additionally, internal political dynamics in Israel might drive a more peaceful resolution that deviates from historical trends.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
–Israel agrees to halt military operations in Gaza. Unlikely
– Hamas agrees to disarm or significantly reduce hostilities. Very Unlikely
– Successful mediation by international actors, such as the U.S., leading to a ceasefire agreement. Unlikely
– Resolution of humanitarian conditions to a degree acceptable to major international stakeholders. Moderately Likely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 8)

Querying Mistral (Error: Mistral is not returning an array)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.05
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
MAPD: 0
Confidence: 7
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.01
Reverse Mellers: 0.13
Theory of Mind: 0.2 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 2
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 5%

The AIs collectively indicate a very low likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared by the end of July 2025. The primary reasons for this pessimistic outlook include the failure of ceasefire talks in Doha, Qatar, due to irreconcilable demands – Israel’s requirement for Hamas disarmament and Hamas’ insistence on Israeli military withdrawal. The severe humanitarian crisis, although creating international pressure, has not yet resulted in substantial changes in negotiations or positions. The brief remaining timeframe further diminishes any realistic prospects of an agreement. While speculative factors such as secret negotiations, emergency humanitarian intervention, or sudden political shifts could ideally change the situation, such outcomes are considered highly unlikely within the next day.