India/Pakistan military clashes? Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast, May 19, 2025

Will ACLED report any conflict fatalities by India against Pakistan or vice versa between May 13 and the end of May?

Phil’s pgodzinai bot predicts a probability of 78%. Below, a summary of how it arrived at this result.
Perplexity response:
{think}

Okay, the user is asking whether ACLED will report any conflict fatalities between India and Pakistan from May 13 to May 31, 2025. Let me look through the provided search results to find relevant information.

First, the search result [1] from The Diplomat on May 12, 2025, mentions that after the April attack, India conducted missile strikes on May 7 targeting Pakistan-administered areas. Cross-border clashes along the Line of Control (LoC) started with small arms and then intensified. Pakistan claimed to shoot down Indian jets, with India confirming some crashes. The situation remains tense despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. This indicates ongoing military activities post-April, which could extend into May.

Search result [4] from May 15, 2025, discusses a terrorist attack in April and notes that while civilian fatalities in Jammu and Kashmir have declined since 2020, sporadic violence continues. The 2025 Pahalgam attack is highlighted as a recent incident. This suggests continued instability, which might lead to further clashes.

ACLED’s own page (result [3]) updated on May 16, 2025, mentions their Conflict Index and Watchlist, but no specific data on India-Pakistan conflicts. However, their methodology includes tracking political violence events, which would cover the recent clashes.

Search result [2] from ACLED on May 16, 2025, reiterates the escalation between India and Pakistan, with missile strikes and cross-border exchanges. It aligns with [1] about the May 7 strikes and subsequent clashes.
The user’s background info states that skirmishes started around April 24-25, 2025. The question is about fatalities from May 13 to 31. Since the search results don’t go beyond May 16, there’s no direct data for the specified May dates. However, the ACLED updates up to May 16 indicate ongoing conflict, making it probable that clashes continued into late May.

But the resolution criteria require “kinetic attacks causing deaths.” The sources mention recent missile strikes, jet crashes, and ground clashes. If these continued, fatalities would be recorded. However, without explicit data from May 13-31, we can’t confirm. ACLED’s method is to track events as they occur, so if fatalities happened in that period, they would report them. Given the tense situation and prior escalation, it’s plausible, but not certain without specific data.
Need to highlight the latest information and the possibility based on trends. Since the user is a superforecaster, they need a balanced view with available data. The answer should note the existing tensions and recent military actions, but also the lack of specific data for the exact date range. Emphasize ACLED’s role in tracking these events and the likelihood based on current escalation.

**Citations and Summaries**
1. **[1] The Diplomat (May 12, 2025)**
– *Tracking Conflict in the Asia-Pacific: May 2025 Update*
– India and Pakistan escalated tensions after a 22 April 2025 terrorist attack in Kashmir, with India conducting missile strikes on 7 May targeting Pakistan-administered regions. Cross-border clashes intensified, including small arms exchanges and reported jet crashes. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire was announced, but the situation remains volatile.
– ACLED recorded nightly military exchanges post-attack, with clashes exceeding pre-2025 levels.
2. **[4] International Affairs (May 15, 2025)**
– *Creating Negative Peace? Data on Violence in Kashmir*
– Civilian fatalities in Jammu and Kashmir have declined since 2020 but persist, with sporadic attacks like the 22 April Pahalgam incident. ACLED data shows ongoing armed clashes despite reduced civilian deaths, indicating entrenched fragility.
3. **[2] ACLED (May 16, 2025)**
– *Analysis Search: India-Pakistan Escalation*
– Highlights India’s 7 May missile strikes and subsequent cross-border clashes. Notes Pakistan’s claims of downing jets and the intensification of exchanges beyond small arms.
4. **[5] 24/7 Wall St (May 13, 2025)**
– *Gangs and Militias Gaining Power*
– Mentions Kuki militia conflicts in India (2023–2025) but focuses on domestic violence, not India-Pakistan disputes.

**Relevance to Query**
The search results indicate **ongoing kinetic conflict** between India and Pakistan post-April 2025, including missile strikes, aerial engagements, and ground clashes. However, no data explicitly covers fatalities between **13–31 May 2025**. ACLED’s methodology involves real-time tracking of political violence, meaning any fatalities during this period **would be recorded** if kinetic attacks occurred.

**Key Observations**
– **Trend of Escalation**: The 7 May strikes and subsequent clashes suggest a pattern of heightened military activity.
– **ACLED’s Role**: As the primary source for conflict event data, they would document fatalities from missile strikes, artillery exchanges, or border skirmishes during the specified period.
– **Uncertainty**: Without explicit data for 13–31 May, the answer hinges on whether clashes continued beyond mid-May. The tense environment and prior escalation increase the likelihood of fatalities, but definitive confirmation requires ACLED’s post-May 16 updates.

**Conclusion**
Based on the provided data and recent escalation, **ACLED is likely to report fatalities** in the specified period if kinetic engagements persisted. However, as the latest ACLED updates end on 16 May, the forecast cannot be confirmed without subsequent reports. The user should monitor ACLED’s datasets for real-time updates post-May 16.

AskNews Deep Search Response:
**Current Status as of May 19, 2025:**
Post-ceasefire violations have resulted in ongoing kinetic clashes, with ACLED’s reporting window (May 13–31) already seeing casualties on May 19 [1][2].

**Key Citations with Relevance Assessment:**
1. **[BBC | May 18, 2025]**
– 16 Indian and 40 Pakistani civilian deaths during a 4-day escalation (May 7–10). Ceasefire brokered on May 10 was violated immediately, indicating fragility [9].
2. **[India Today | May 18, 2025]**
– Pakistan’s 2025 cross-border fatalities exceeded 500 by mid-May. Indian retaliation via Operation Sindoor caused >50 Pakistani military deaths [5].
3. **[新浪财经 | May 18, 2025]**
– Ceasefire “has no end date” per Indian military, but DGMO-level communications show intermittent compliance [6].
4. **[The Khaama Press | May 10, 2025]**
– Civilian fatalities (11 in India, 17 in Pakistan) during Operation Bunyan Marsoos (May 10), with displacement and infrastructure damage [10].
5. **[China Military Channel | May 10, 2025]**
– India’s May 7 “Sindur Action” targeted Muzaffarabad with 9 missiles (3 civilian deaths), demonstrating ongoing kinetic capability [11].
6. **[Folha de S.Paulo | May 19, 2025]**
– Post-ceasefire violations with drone/artillery exchanges (May 10 onward) show conflict automation trends, increasing accidental escalation risks [3].
7. **[Azattyk.org | May 18, 2025]**
– Civilian casualties (26 killed in India, 7 in Pakistan) from May 7–18 rocket and artillery exchanges [4].
8. **[Haberler.com | May 9, 2025]**
– U.S. mediation efforts (Trump, Vance) failed to prevent exchanges, with Pakistan claiming 77 Indian drones shot down (May 8–9) [15].

**Conflict Dynamics & Forecast Considerations:**
– **Ceasefire Stability:** Ceasefire lacks enforcement mechanisms (e.g., third-party monitors) [6][9]. Low trust increases risk of minor provocations escalating.
– **Military Posture:** Both sides retain kinetic strike capabilities (drones, missiles, artillery) and domestic political incentives to retaliate [2][11].
– **Settlement Deadlines:** No agreed withdrawal timelines for troops, with India maintaining Operation Sindoor infrastructure [5][6].

**Limitations:**
– Pakistan’s casualty claims (e.g., 5 Indian jets shot down [2][12]) lack independent verification.
– ACLED’s reporting delays (typically 1–3 days) mean fatalities after May 28 may not be published until June.

**Conclusion:**
Given recurring ceasefire violations (as recent as **May 19** [1][2]), unresolved military operations, and no diplomatic breakthrough, **ACLED is 80–90% likely to report fatalities between May 13–31, 2025**, primarily along the Line of Control. Threshold: Any single kinetic attack (e.g., artillery, cross-border strike) causing ≥1 death.

GPT News Summary:
As of May 19, 2025, the likelihood of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reporting conflict fatalities between India and Pakistan between May 13, 2025, and May 31, 2025, appears significant based on recent escalations and ongoing tensions, despite a declared ceasefire.

1. **Escalation and Hostilities**: Recent tensions between India and Pakistan date back to the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in 26 deaths and was initially blamed on Pakistani-supported groups (sources: Free Press Journal, May 19, 2025; India Today, May 18, 2025). This led to retaliatory strikes by India on May 7, 2025, under “Operation Sindoor,” which targeted terror infrastructure in Pakistan (source: The Print, May 18, 2025).
2. **Military Engagements**: Since early May 2025, both nations have reportedly engaged in significant military hostilities. India conducted air and artillery strikes on Pakistan’s Punjab province on May 7, leading to multiple fatalities, including claims of 31 Pakistani civilian deaths (sources: Azattyk, May 18, 2025; SwissInfo, May 7, 2025; Infobae, May 8, 2025). This was followed by Pakistan’s artillery fire on May 7 and onwards, reportedly killing seven Indian soldiers and causing numerous injuries on both sides (source: Azattyk, May 18, 2025).
3. **Ceasefire and Fragility**: Although a ceasefire was agreed upon on May 10, 2025, reports suggest continued artillery and small arms fire along the Line of Control (LoC) (source: DW, May 8, 2025). The extension of the ceasefire until May 18, 2025, indicates a temporary halt in hostilities, but the situation remains volatile (source: Kaosenlared, May 16, 2025).
4. **Casualties and Impact**: Reports indicate high casualties from these engagements, with India’s operations reportedly resulting in over 500 Pakistani deaths by May 18, 2025, including both military and civilian fatalities. Cross-border violence has caused significant casualties, with multiple reports of civilian deaths, including recent claims of up to 104 deaths during the latest escalation (sources: India Today, May 18, 2025; Heraldo, May 11, 2025).

Given the recent military actions, historical context of volatility along the LoC, and existing tensions despite diplomatic efforts, there is a considerable likelihood of ACLED recording conflict-related fatalities in the target timeframe unless further diplomatic efforts yield solid and lasting peace measures.

=== Reasoning ===
.
Based on all these factors, considering:
– The extremely recent nature of the ceasefire
– The aggressive rhetoric from both sides
– The historical pattern of ceasefire violations
– The presence of military forces in position
– The short timeline (only 12 days remaining)
– The demonstrated willingness to use lethal force
– The existing casualties already reported
– ACLED’s comprehensive reporting practices

Probability: 85%

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