How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 6%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 17%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 18%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 23%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 18%
* More than 12000: 18%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the key developments in Sudan:
The humanitarian crisis in Sudan has reached critical levels, with multiple severe challenges:
1. Famine and Food Security:
– The UN human rights chief Volker Turk has warned of “mass deaths from famine”
– The World Food Program (WFP) has temporarily suspended food aid distribution in some famine-struck areas
– Children are already dying in the Zamzam displacement camp, with thousands of families at risk of starvation
– Five more areas could face famine in the next three months, with 17 additional regions at risk
2. Health Crisis:
– A severe cholera outbreak in White Nile State has caused nearly 100 deaths in two weeks
– Healthcare infrastructure is severely damaged, with many hospitals non-functional
– U.S. aid cuts are further threatening already strained health services
– There are reports of sexual violence against civilians, including children
3. Recent Military/Political Developments:
– A military plane crash in Omdurman killed 46 people
– The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has reportedly regained some territory in the ongoing conflict
– Political tensions continue, with the junta issuing a red notice for an opposition figure in Nairobi
The situation represents what the UN describes as Sudan “looking into the abyss,” with the combination of conflict, disease, and famine creating a devastating humanitarian emergency requiring immediate international attention and response.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The situation in Sudan has deteriorated into a severe humanitarian crisis, marked by critical levels of famine, health emergencies, and ongoing conflict. The UN has issued stark warnings about potential mass deaths due to famine, with severe food insecurity affecting multiple regions and the World Food Program having to pause aid in certain areas. A dire cholera outbreak has emerged in White Nile State, exacerbated by severely damaged healthcare infrastructure and strained resources due to U.S. aid cuts. Additionally, reports of sexual violence are surfacing. The military conflict continues to add to the turmoil, with a deadly military plane crash in Omdurman and ongoing territorial disputes. These intersecting crises have prompted the UN to describe Sudan’s situation as teetering on the edge of disaster, underscoring an urgent need for international intervention and support.”
Fact-checking news summary:
I’m sorry, but I can’t guarantee the accuracy of predictions or statements about future events such as conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025, as this falls outside the scope of verifiable information. However, I can summarize relevant and verified facts about current or historical contexts related to conflicts in Sudan if available. If you have another request or need information on a different aspect of Sudan, feel free to ask.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.1, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.4, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.3, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.09, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.05, “More than 12000”: 0.01] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.25, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.15, “More than 12000”: 0.2] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 6%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 17%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 18%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 23%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 18%
* More than 12000: 18%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The summaries emphasize that Sudan’s ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has historically resulted in high death tolls, with recent years showing no substantial de-escalation in violence. The political instability and historic volatility in Sudan contribute to these predictions, although seasonal variations and resource exhaustion might reduce fighting capacities. Despite persistent strife, potential pathways to decreased violence include sudden peace agreements or international intervention, though these are uncertain. There are also concerns about the accuracy of conflict data, and the short timeframe of the prediction (remaining months of 2025) suggests that while escalations are unlikely, rapid changes remain possible due to unforeseen factors, such as new political developments or shifts in military dynamics.
Runtime: 220 seconds for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Interactive VIEWS dashboard here.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 30%
* between 172 and 205: 40%
* between 206 and 240: 20%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Mark Carney, former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, has won the Liberal Party leadership race to succeed Justin Trudeau as party leader with a commanding 85.9% of the vote. This victory positions him to become Canada’s next Prime Minister, though he won’t immediately assume the role despite winning the party leadership.
The political landscape is being significantly shaped by external factors, particularly Donald Trump’s recent threats regarding trade and his comments about making Canada the “51st state.” These developments have reportedly given new life to the Liberal Party’s prospects after they had been trailing in polls. Carney faces immediate challenges including navigating potential Trump tariffs and a looming federal election.
The Conservative opposition, led by Pierre Poilievre, has criticized Carney’s election, claiming he is “Just like Justin” and suggesting his selection is a political maneuver to win reelection. Despite recent polling challenges, Conservative supporters remain confident, as evidenced by a recent rally in London, Ontario. There are increasing calls for a federal election to be held soon, with some arguing that Canada needs new leadership to address current challenges. The exact timing of the federal election remains uncertain but appears to be approaching.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Mark Carney has won the leadership of Canada’s Liberal Party with 85.9% of the vote, positioning him to potentially become the next Prime Minister, although he does not immediately assume the role despite the leadership victory. His election comes amid heightened external pressures, particularly from recent comments by Donald Trump threatening trade tariffs and suggesting Canada could become the “51st state.” These tensions have reportedly invigorated the Liberal Party’s prospects following a period of trailing in polls. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized Carney’s leadership win as a mere continuation of Justin Trudeau’s policies, spurring debate over potential political maneuvering ahead of a federal election. While the exact date of this election is uncertain, there are growing calls for it to occur soon as Canada faces pressing political challenges.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here are the specific facts extracted from the summary, along with an analysis of their correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact:** Mark Carney has won the leadership of Canada’s Liberal Party with 85.9% of the vote.
– **Correctness:** False. As of the last update in October 2023, Mark Carney has not run for or won the leadership of Canada’s Liberal Party.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. This fact is not directly related to predicting the number of seats the Conservative Party will win.
– **Relevance:** False. Since it is incorrect, it does not affect the outcome prediction.
2. **Fact:** Mark Carney does not immediately become Prime Minister despite winning the leadership.
– **Correctness:** True. Leadership of a party does not directly translate to being Prime Minister without winning a federal election.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. This detail is procedural and does not directly impact the seat count itself.
– **Relevance:** True. Procedures regarding leadership are generally relevant to political dynamics.
3. **Fact:** Donald Trump has threatened trade tariffs and suggested Canada could become the “51st state.”
– **Correctness:** True to some extent. Donald Trump, during his presidency and after, has made comments about trade tariffs, but the suggestion of Canada becoming the “51st state” is more rhetoric than policy.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. While international dynamics affect Canadian politics, their direct influence on the number of seats won by the Conservative Party is indirect.
– **Relevance:** False. These comments are unlikely to have a direct effect on the Conservative Party’s seat count.
4. **Fact:** Tensions from Trump’s comments have reportedly invigorated the Liberal Party’s prospects.
– **Correctness:** Speculative/False. Though external tensions can influence political dynamics, there is no clear or consistent evidence specifically linking Trump’s comments to an increase in Liberal Party support.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. Such external factors might shift political narratives but do not directly predict specific seat outcomes.
– **Relevance:** False. Speculative impacts do not provide concrete data regarding seat counts.
5. **Fact:** Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre criticized Carney’s leadership win as a continuation of Justin Trudeau’s policies.
– **Correctness:** True. Criticism of such a nature is a common political maneuver.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. Political criticisms are part of election dynamics but do not predict seat numbers.
– **Relevance:** True. Such political statements are part of the background context in determining election outcomes.
6. **Fact:** The exact date of the Canadian federal election is uncertain, with calls for it to happen soon.
– **Correctness:** True. Election dates can be somewhat uncertain within their permissible window until officially announced.
– **Importance:** Important. The timing of the election can influence party strategies and voter turnout.
– **Relevance:** True. While not a direct predictor of seat numbers, the timing of elections is clearly relevant to the outcome.
Overall, while the summary provides context, it contains inaccuracies and speculative elements that do not directly determine how many seats the Conservative Party will win. The key facts with the potential to inform such predictions relate most closely to party leadership dynamics and the timing of the federal election, not to external pressures or speculative benefits to opposing parties.
Fact-checked summary:
In assessing the potential outcome for the Conservative Party in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, the key facts to consider involve political dynamics and election timing. Pierre Poilievre’s criticism of Mark Carney’s leadership win as a continuation of Justin Trudeau’s policies is acknowledged as a common political maneuver, which forms part of the political context but does not directly predict seat numbers. Additionally, the exact date of the Canadian federal election remains uncertain, with ongoing calls for it to happen soon. This uncertainty is important as the timing of the election can influence party strategies and voter turnout, factors which are relevant to determining election outcomes.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.4, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 30%
* between 172 and 205: 40%
* between 206 and 240: 20%
* more than 240: 10%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various AIs highlight several factors affecting predictions for the number of seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal election. Common themes include the influence of current political dynamics under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, historical performance, and potential vote-splitting among center-left voters if Mark Carney becomes a significant figure. Polling data suggests possible Conservative gains, but their ability to secure a majority remains uncertain. Uncertain election timing further complicates predictions, as it can impact voter turnout and party strategy. Unforeseen events such as political scandals, economic changes, or shifts in public sentiment could dramatically impact the election outcome. Additionally, changes in political dynamics due to the roles of other parties or potential electoral reform could affect seat distribution.
All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
