Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 28%
This question is a side competition with the RAND Forecasting Initiative’s forecasting of this question. Their consensus forecast today—>
10–13 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Pakistan India hostilities 2025
News from various sources:
The content retrieved reflects on the escalating hostilities between India and Pakistan in 2025, triggered by the April Pahalgam terror attack. A brief conflict followed, with significant international attention due to the historical context of both countries’ relationships with major powers like the U.S. and China.
1. **Background and Causes**:
– The tensions originated from an April 2025 terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which killed 26 people. India blamed Pakistan, but Islamabad denied involvement and sought a neutral investigation.
– The conflict involved air, missile, drone, and artillery exchanges over several days, with both nations reportedly losing aircraft.
– Previous Cold War dynamics and ongoing superpower involvements remain factors, with Pakistan seeking support from the U.S. and China, whereas India remains resistant to third-party mediation, especially concerning Kashmir.
2. **International Involvement**:
– The U.S., under President Donald Trump, claims that its diplomatic threats, particularly around trade deals, helped broker a ceasefire. However, India insists this was achieved bilaterally without external mediation.
– Trump’s administration declared certain groups linked to the Pahalgam attack as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and portrayed inconsistent involvement by engaging with both Pakistani and Indian interests differently.
– China’s role has been significant as well, providing military technology to Pakistan and advocating for Pakistan’s security concerns, while maintaining a complex diplomatic neutrality.
3. **Domestic and Regional Impacts**:
– In Pakistan’s diplomatic channels, figures such as Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar have highlighted perceived Indian aggression at the United Nations, where they emphasize discussions on peace and multilateralism.
– The US’s reluctance to meditate as explicitly seen in comments by Trump and his administration’s retreat from overt involvement, while China’s military support for Pakistan continues to grow in sophistication, significantly affecting the regional balance.
4. **Military and Strategic Considerations**:
– Reports suggest aerial engagements led to the downing of planes on both sides, with Pakistan claiming more Indian losses, while India claims similar results against Pakistan.
– Post-hostilities, both nations’ internal assessments shifted towards preventing further escalation and addressing military resource management.
5. **Geopolitical Challenges and Superpower Involvement**:
– The ongoing India-China tensions over the Dalai Lama’s succession and strategic border issues continue to stress the diplomatic environment.
– President Trump’s assertions of his role in facilitating the ceasefire illustrate a broader narrative of US foreign policy’s evolving strategy in South Asia, marked by transactional rather than strategic alliances.
The interaction between India and Pakistan remains layered with geopolitical intricacies, influenced by both countries’ relationships with superpowers, further exacerbating regional military and diplomatic complexities.
Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the provided summary, here are the specific facts along with their analysis:
1. **Fact**: The tensions originated from an April 2025 terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which killed 26 people.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify. The specific event is in the future as per the 2023 knowledge cut-off.
– **Importance**: Critical. It is the primary cause for the hostilities.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly related to the question about hostilities and casualties.
2. **Fact**: India blamed Pakistan for the Pahalgam attack, but Islamabad denied involvement and sought a neutral investigation.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but unable to verify externally for the future event.
– **Importance**: Important. Contributes to the understanding of the cause of the conflict.
– **Relevance**: True. Relates to the escalation in hostilities.
3. **Fact**: The conflict involved air, missile, drone, and artillery exchanges over several days, with both nations reportedly losing aircraft.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but unable to verify due to future context.
– **Importance**: Critical. Indicates military engagement necessary for casualty estimation.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly affects potential casualty counts.
4. **Fact**: The U.S., under President Donald Trump, claims that its diplomatic threats helped broker a ceasefire.
– **Correctness**: False for the timeframe; Donald Trump is not President in 2025 based on current term limitations.
– **Importance**: Important. Affects understanding of international mediation.
– **Relevance**: True. Pertains to cessation of hostilities which relates to casualty prognosis.
5. **Fact**: India insists the ceasefire was achieved bilaterally without external mediation.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent.
– **Importance**: Important. Affects the interpretation of conflict resolution.
– **Relevance**: True. Related to conflict duration affecting casualty estimates.
6. **Fact**: Reports suggest aerial engagements led to the downing of planes on both sides.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, no external verification for future events.
– **Importance**: Important. Suggests potential for high military casualties.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly related to casualty potential.
7. **Fact**: China provides military technology to Pakistan and advocates for its security concerns.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent and likely true based on past trends but unverified for future.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. Strategic rather than tactical influence.
– **Relevance**: True. Contributes to understanding strategic balance.
8. **Fact**: India remains resistant to third-party mediation, especially concerning Kashmir.
– **Correctness**: Consistent with historical policy, likely true but unverified.
– **Importance**: Important. Impacts potential peacemaking efficacy.
– **Relevance**: True. Relates to overall resolution strategy.
The list includes important facts integral to understanding the potential for casualties due to hostilities between India and Pakistan, intrinsically linked to the provided question’s framework and conditions.
Fact-checked summary:
Based on the fact-checking list provided, the following statements are both true and relevant to the question concerning hostilities between Pakistan and India resulting in casualties between June and September 2025: India remains resistant to third-party mediation, particularly in matters related to Kashmir, which impacts potential peacemaking efficacy and relates to overall resolution strategies. This fact is important because it highlights a longstanding policy that affects how conflicts might be resolved and thus reflects on casualty potential.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 40%
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Past incidents of India-Pakistan conflicts within the same timeframe, 0.5
Political climate and leadership on both sides, 0.2
Involvement or lack of third-party mediation, 0.2
Historical resistance to conflict resolution, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors, assume prior probability of conflict with casualties as 0.4. New evidence, like lack of third-party mediation and resistance from India, suggests slight increase. Calculate conditional probability: P(Conflict | Resistance to mediation) = 0.4 + (0.2 * 0.5) = 0.5
Bayesian base rate: 50%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 70
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers past historical frequencies of conflicts during the specified period, alongside ongoing tensions between the two nations. Historical behavior points to periodic escalating tensions, especially in Kashmir.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Further information on military movement, both public and classified, would enhance forecast accuracy. Also, details on internal political pressures in both countries could provide more insights.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential changes in leadership or international pressure could lead to decreased likelihood of open hostilities. Additionally, unforeseen diplomatic efforts that gain traction may lower conflict risk.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued border tensions between Pakistan and India Likely
– Failure of diplomatic interventions Somewhat likely
– Military confrontations leading to casualties Possible
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 25%– confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (Error: Mistral is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 30% – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.28
Base rate: 40% (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.03
MAPD: 0
Confidence: 4.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.2
Reverse Mellers: 0.35
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 1
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 2
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 28%
The various AI analyses predominantly focus on the historical pattern of conflicts along the Pakistan-India border, noting that major casualty events are infrequent but not unheard of. The short timeframe from June to September 2025, along with weather conditions from the monsoon season, historically reduces military activity, potentially lowering the likelihood of major skirmishes. Despite the ongoing tensions over the Kashmir region and India’s resistance to third-party mediation, which might extend the persistence of the conflict, these factors don’t inherently lead to a large escalation. However, several AIs caution that unexpected events, such as a terrorist incident, internal political pressures, or climate-related pressures, could lead to an unforeseen increase in hostilities. Diplomatic efforts and international intervention also remain variable factors that could either resolve or exacerbate tensions.
Runtime: 226 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy’s bots —>
Source: https://kashmir.liveuamap.com/
