India/Pakistan military clashes? Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast, May 12, 2025

Will ACLED report any conflict fatalities by India against Pakistan or vice versa between May 13 and the end of May?

Phil’s pgodzinai predicts a probability of 78%
Perplexity response:
{think}

Okay, let’s tackle this question. The user wants to know if ACLED will report any conflict fatalities between India and Pakistan from May 13 to May 31, 2025.

First, I need to understand the context. They mentioned the April 22 attack in Pahalgam where 26 people were killed, leading to tensions and military exchanges. The background includes the Kashmir conflict, India revoking Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy in 2019, and the current situation involving skirmishes along the Line of Control since April 24-25.
The resolution criteria specify that kinetic attacks causing deaths count, not cyberattacks. The sources provided include ACLED’s report from May 9, 2025, and two Telegraph articles from May 7 and May 8, 2025.

Looking at the search results:
1. **ACLED Report (May 9, 2025)**: Details the April 22 attack, attributing it to TRF, but noting TRF’s denial. Mentions ongoing cross-border exchanges since the attack, more clashes in 2025 than any year since 2021. Indicates continued tensions and military activity.
2. **Telegraph (May 8)**: Pakistan claims to have killed 50 Indian soldiers and destroyed military installations. This shows escalation.
3. **Telegraph (May 7)**: Pakistan vows retaliation after India’s missile strikes. Claims downing five Indian aircraft. PM Sharif warns of consequences, escalating rhetoric.

So, the key points are: Increased military exchanges along LoC, Pakistan’s retaliation threats and claimed actions, India’s missile strikes. ACLED’s report from May 9 notes ongoing clashes, suggesting continued conflict.
Since the user wants to know about May 13-31, but the latest info is up to May 8 (Telegraph) and May 9 (ACLED). The sources don’t cover events beyond those dates. However, the trend shows escalating tensions post-April 22. Given the intensity and the lack of de-escalation steps mentioned, it’s plausible that conflict fatalities would continue into the next weeks.

ACLED is a reliable source for tracking conflict fatalities. Since they recorded increased clashes in 2025 prior to the attack, and the situation has worsened with the recent attacks and counterattacks, it’s likely that further fatalities will be reported. The Pakistan government’s claims of downing aircraft and the continued exchanges along LoC support this.

However, without specific data from May 13 onwards, one has to infer based on the ongoing tensions. The absence of recent data in the search results (all sources are up to May 9) means the answer must be cautious. But given the escalating pattern, the probability is high that ACLED will report fatalities in the specified period.

**Key Sources and Updates**
1. **ACLED Regional Overview Asia-Pacific (May 9, 2025)**
– Details the April 22 militant attack in Kashmir, which killed 26 tourists, and attributed responsibility to The Resistance Front (TRF), a group linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba[1].
– Notes **ongoing cross-border exchanges** between Indian and Pakistani forces since the attack, with clashes surpassing annual totals since 2021[1].
– Highlights escalated tensions post-attack, including diplomatic reprisals and military action[1].

2. **The Telegraph (May 8, 2025)**
– Reports **Pakistan’s claims** of killing up to 50 Indian soldiers and destroying military installations in Kashmir. Pakistan asserts retaliatory strikes, including downing five Indian aircraft[2].
– Indicates heightened military aggression, including artillery exchanges along the Line of Control (LoC)[2].

3. **The Telegraph (May 7, 2025)**
– Describes Pakistan’s warning against India’s missile strikes on suspected terrorist facilities, vowing **”substantial” retaliation**[3].
– Mentions Pakistan’s PM Sharif declaring effective defense against Indian missile attacks and threatening consequences, including claims of downing Indian jets[3].

**Trends and Projections**
– **Escalating Violence**: Post-April 22, both sides have engaged in **cross-border artillery exchanges**, missile strikes, and aerial combat[1][2][3]. Pakistan’s defense minister warned of harsh retaliation, signaling continued hostility[3].

– **ACLED’s Track Record**: ACLED has actively reported on Kashmir conflict fatalities, including civilian and military deaths, with a focus on kinetic attacks[1]. Given the recent intensification, it is highly likely they will document **further fatalities** in May 2025.

– **Gaps in Data**: The latest sources (May 7–9) do not explicitly confirm fatalities in the May 13–31 window, but the **military escalation trajectory** suggests sustained violence.

** Resolution Likelihood**
ACLED’s definition of “conflict fatalities” includes kinetic attacks, and the described military actions (e.g., aerial combat, artillery strikes) meet the criThank you for the clarificationteria. While no specific data for May 13–31 exists in the provided sources, the **escalating pattern** since April 22 strongly implies continued fatalities in this period.

**Conclusion**
Based on recent military exchanges and ACLED’s focus on kinetic conflict reporting, there is a **high probability** that ACLED will report fatalities between May 13 and May 31, 2025. The sources highlight unchecked tensions, retaliatory strikes, and a lack of de-escalation measures, aligning with ACLED’s methodology.

AskNews Deep Search Response: Based on recent reporting up to May 11, 2025, and trajectory of violence, ACLED is highly likely to report conflict fatalities between India and Pakistan between May 13–31, 2025. Key factors include:

1. **Recent Violent Trends**:
– **05/11/2025**: Fragile ceasefire announced on 05/11 saw immediate violations, with 6 deaths and 20 injuries reported in fresh fighting [1].
– **05/10/2025**: 13 civilians killed in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and 8 military/civilian deaths in Indian-administered Kashmir, bringing total fatalities since April 22 to 104 [2][3].
– **05/07–05/10**: Sustained artillery/drone exchanges caused 8–15 daily civilian deaths on both sides [11][27][38].

2. **Escalatory Posture**:
– Pakistan vowed to retaliate “at any time, anywhere” (Pakistani FM statement, 05/07) [31].
– India’s “Operation Sindoor” (05/07) targeted alleged terror bases in Pakistan, with no signs of unilateral de-escalation [20][26].

3. **Ceasefire Weakness**:
– The U.S.-brokered ceasefire (05/11) was violated within 3 hours, indicating low trust and high incentive for further kinetic actions [1].

4. **No Major De-escalation Signals**:
– G7 calls for restraint (05/10) lacked enforcement mechanisms [12].
– Water-sharing threats and drone warfare (300–400 drones used on 05/09) suggest conflict diversification rather than resolution [13][16].
**Key Uncertainties**:
– Potential international pressure post-05/11 ceasefire collapse could reduce fatalities.
– Cyberattacks (excluded by resolution criteria) may replace kinetic strikes.

**Conclusion**: Given the post-ceasefire violence, retaliatory pledges, and historical patterns (e.g., 2019 Balakot clashes), ACLED will likely record additional kinetic conflict fatalities in the stipulated window.
Citations: [1][2][3][11][12][13][20][26][31][38]

GPT News Summary:
As of May 12, 2025, tensions between India and Pakistan remain high following the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, that resulted in 26 fatalities. This has led to a significant military escalation, involving airstrikes, artillery exchanges, and missile launches.

1. **Recent Escalation:** On May 12, reports indicate that India launched Operation Sindoor, a coordinated military campaign targeting what it claims are terrorist infrastructures in Pakistan. The operation reportedly eliminated over 80 terrorists (source: Asianet News, May 12, 2025). Despite a ceasefire agreement on May 10 (source: Rambler News, May 11, 2025), ceasefire violations have been frequent, and the situation remains fraught with tension (source: Heraldo.es, May 11, 2025).

2. **Casualties and Displacements:** At least 104 total deaths have resulted from the recent hostilities, including those from Indian airstrikes on May 7, which Pakistan claims resulted in 30 civilian deaths (source: Heraldo.es, May 11, 2025). Thousands of civilians are fleeing volatile regions such as Jammu (source: Notre Temps, May 10, 2025).
3. **Current Situation and Ceasefire Violations:** Though May 12 marked the first reported quiet night in days, exchanges of gunfire and artillery along the Line of Control (LoC) have continued sporadically. Reports earlier in May documented drones and artillery fire despite ceasefire attempts (source: Rambler News, May 11, 2025; Swissinfo, May 7, 2025). Recent events suggest a fragile ceasefire with potential for renewed violence.

4. **Diplomatic and International Response:** The international community has expressed concern over the possibility of a nuclear confrontation (source: Albawabh News, May 10, 2025). The U.S. and other countries have attempted mediation, contributing to the temporary easing of tensions on May 10 (source: Medium, May 10, 2025).
Given the recent pattern of conflict escalation, ceasefire violations, and the substantial number of casualties reported, monitoring the situation is crucial as tensions could easily reignite, potentially leading to conflict fatalities during the specified timeframe (May 13-31, 2025).

All predictions: [60, 60, 64, 83, 87, 89, 93]
Filtered predictions: [64, 83, 87]

=== Reasoning ===
The historical context of India-Pakistan conflicts also demonstrates a pattern of recurring violence, especially along the Line of Control, even during nominal ceasefire periods. Based on the complete analysis of current developments, recent fatalities, ACLED’s reporting methodology, and the historical pattern of India-Pakistan conflicts, I assess there is a high probability that ACLED will report conflict fatalities between the two countries during May 13-31, 2025.

Probability: 78%

Link to the full output of today’s forecast by pgodzinai —>

Links to all past forecasts —>