India/Pakistan military clashes? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast of June 9, 2025

Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?

Today, Jeremy Lichtman’s Multii-AI Oracle predicts 15%.

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: India Pakistan hostilities 2025
News from various sources:

According to the extracted information, we can summarize that in 2025, hostilities between India and Pakistan were ceased following military engagement and peace dialogues between the two countries. Key points include:
1. **Operation Sindoor**: India initiated Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025, after a terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 people. This operation involved precision strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Subsequently, there was military engagement from both sides.
2. **Cessation of Hostilities**: The ceasefire was reached on May 10, 2025, after direct contact between the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) of India and Pakistan. It was reported that the discussions between these military leaders led to the cessation of firing and military action.
3. **Role of International Influence**: U.S. President Donald Trump claimed credit for brokering the cessation of hostilities, indicating that trade negotiations were used as leverage. However, Indian officials, including the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, clarified that during discussions with the U.S., the issue of trade or tariffs did not come up.
4. **International Diplomacy**: The cessation agreement follows international debates about diplomatic influence and collaboration in peace-building efforts, with India and the UK discussing enhanced counter-terrorism cooperation following the ceasefire.
5. **UN and Global Terrorism Dynamics**: Despite hostilities and terrorism threats, the UN appointed Pakistan to significant positions within its Security Council Committees, raising questions about balancing global diplomatic efforts and counter-terrorism initiatives.

Overall, the ceasefire was facilitated by direct military dialogue between India and Pakistan rather than influenced trade negotiations, although international diplomatic efforts, particularly by the US, were significant talking points in the unfolding situation.

Fact-checking news summary:
.Let’s break down the facts stated in the summary and assess their correctness, importance, and relevance to the resolution of the question about hostilities resulting in at least 100 total uniformed casualties between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025:

1. **Operation Sindoor**: India initiated Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025, after a terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 people. This operation involved precision strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Subsequently, there was military engagement from both sides.
– **Correctness**: Assume true (as per the summary information).
– **Importance**: Greater importance, as it is a direct military conflict relevant to potential casualties.
– **Relevance**: True, this fact is relevant to assessing the likelihood of casualties.
2. **Cessation of Hostilities**: The ceasefire was reached on May 10, 2025, after direct contact between the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) of India and Pakistan. It was reported that the discussions between these military leaders led to the cessation of firing and military action.
– **Correctness**: Assume true (as per the summary information).
– **Importance**: Greater importance, as it indicates a halt in hostilities which affects casualty projections.
– **Relevance**: True, this is relevant as it suggests no further military engagement, which might prevent casualties.
3. **Role of International Influence**: U.S. President Donald Trump claimed credit for brokering the cessation of hostilities, indicating that trade negotiations were used as leverage. However, Indian officials, including the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, clarified that during discussions with the U.S., the issue of trade or tariffs did not come up.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but cannot verify externally without further context.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance, as this primarily involves diplomacy rather than military actions relevant to casualties.
– **Relevance**: False, this is not directly relevant to the calculation of uniformed casualties.
4. **International Diplomacy**: The cessation agreement follows international debates about diplomatic influence and collaboration in peace-building efforts, with India and the UK discussing enhanced counter-terrorism cooperation following the ceasefire.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but cannot verify externally.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance, as this is more about diplomatic relations than combat situations.
– **Relevance**: False, this does not directly impact the potential for casualties.
5. **UN and Global Terrorism Dynamics**: Despite hostilities and terrorism threats, the UN appointed Pakistan to significant positions within its Security Council Committees, raising questions about balancing global diplomatic efforts and counter-terrorism initiatives.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but cannot verify externally.
– **Importance**: Unimportant, as it pertains to diplomatic roles irrelevant to military casualties.
– **Relevance**: False, not relevant to the expected outcome of casualties.

Overall, the summary indicates an early resolution to hostilities, which suggests a lower likelihood of accruing significant uniformed casualties in the specified later period, given the important facts of military engagement and ceasefire.

Fact-checked summary:
The facts indicate an initial military engagement with potential for casualties due to India initiating Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025, after a terror attack in Pahalgam, which involved precision strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. This fact is important as it represents a direct military conflict. However, a ceasefire was reached on May 10, 2025, after direct discussions between the Director Generals of Military Operations of India and Pakistan, effectively halting hostilities shortly thereafter. This cessation of hostilities is of greater importance, as it significantly reduces the likelihood of accumulating 100 total uniformed casualties within the specified period, suggesting that the risk of ongoing military engagement—and therefore additional casualties—is minimized given the early resolution of conflict.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.2
The question difficulty is rated 6 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.40.30.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
To calculate the Bayesian probability, we use the historical factors as weightings to adjust our base rate. Given the successful implementation of a ceasefire almost immediately after the initial conflict (weighting of 0.3) and low historical average casualties in short-duration conflicts (weighting of 0.3), the revised probability is reduced. Combining these, the Bayesian result reflects a decreased probability of resumption or escalation of hostilities.
Bayesian base rate: 0.1 Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 54 (Carolyn’s note: the correct number of days is 113)
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
Based on historical conflicts between India and Pakistan, the base rate of accumulating 100 casualties is low, especially with the swift resolution of the recent skirmish. However, entry variables suggest the potential for conflict remains, justifying a base rate of 0.2.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information on intelligence reports on any planned actions from either country, troop movements, or geopolitical pressures could improve forecast accuracy. Access to on-ground assessments of the ceasefire implementation would also be beneficial.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential divergences include political or terrorist provocations that could disrupt the ceasefire, causing renewed hostilities. Additionally, international diplomatic efforts or interventions could further stabilize the situation, decreasing the likelihood of further escalation.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
–Resumption of hostilities between India and Pakistan post-ceasefire Unlikely
– Escalation of conflict leading to significant military engagement Unlikely
– 100 total uniformed casualties accumulated before the end of the specified period Unlikely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.08 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 4)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.09
MAPD: 0.14666666666667
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.69
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 15%

The consensus among the various AI systems is that the likelihood of India and Pakistan experiencing hostilities resulting in at least 100 uniformed casualties within the specified period is low. This is largely because of the recent ceasefire established on May 10, 2025, following Operation Sindoor, which suggests a commitment to de-escalation by both countries. Historical patterns indicate that large-scale conflicts between these nations are infrequent, typically occurring once every 5-10 years, and are often contained due to nuclear deterrence, international diplomatic efforts, and the associated high costs of escalation. Nonetheless, the prediction could be undermined by unforeseen factors such as major terrorist attacks, accidental escalations from border skirmishes, political provocations, or internal political pressures that could destabilize the ceasefire and potentially lead to renewed conflict.

Runtime: 201 seconds.