Coming soon: How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle will compete with the machine forecasting bots of the
VIEWS competition.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for him to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question. Interactive Views dashboard here.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by Jeremy last year:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
A the bottom of this page, a screenshot of VIEWS forecasts for state-based conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 17%
* between 172 and 205: 39%
* between 206 and 240: 33%
* more than 240: 11%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most Recent Developments (Last 24-48 hours):
Donald Trump’s recent threats of tariffs against Canada appear to be significantly impacting Canadian politics, particularly boosting support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party while creating challenges for the Conservative Party. The Liberal Party is attempting to frame the next federal election as a choice between protecting Canada from Trump’s threats (represented by the Liberals) versus Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, whom they’re trying to associate with Trump’s policies.
Provincial Politics:
In Ontario, Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford just won a historic third consecutive majority government, though with fewer seats than the previous election. Ford called a snap election more than a year early, positioning himself as a defender against Trump’s tariff threats. The NDP formed the Official Opposition, while the Liberals regained official party status despite their leader Bonnie Crombie failing to win her seat.
Federal Political Landscape:
Recent polling shows that if former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney were to lead the Liberal Party, Conservative Party support would likely decrease. The political discourse is increasingly focused on economic protection and trade relations with the US, rather than traditional “change” messaging. The Liberals are actively using Trump’s threats as a campaign strategy to position themselves as defenders of Canadian interests.
This situation represents a significant shift in Canadian political dynamics, with international relations, particularly with the US, becoming a central issue in both provincial and federal politics.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent developments in Canadian politics have been influenced by threats of tariffs from Donald Trump, which are reportedly bolstering support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party by framing them as defenders against these threats, in contrast to the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre. In provincial politics, Ontario Premier Doug Ford secured a third-term majority government, though with reduced seats, after calling an early election and positioning himself similarly as a protector against US tariff threats. The New Democratic Party (NDP) is now the Official Opposition in Ontario, and the Liberals have regained official party status. Federally, speculation that former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney might lead the Liberals is thought to weaken Conservative support, and the political discourse now centers on economic protection and US trade relations. This indicates a shift in Canadian politics, with international issues impacting both provincial and federal levels.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Given the summary, we can extract the following specific facts and evaluate them for accuracy, importance to the question of how many seats the Conservative Party will win, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs are reportedly bolstering support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party.
– **Correctness**: True, as political dynamics often shift when external pressures like tariffs influence public sentiment.
– **Importance**: Important, as increased support for the Liberal Party could affect the Conservative Party’s seat count.
– **Relevance**: True, because the level of support for the Liberal Party influences the number of seats the Conservative Party might win.
2. **Fact**: The Conservative Party is led by Pierre Poilievre.
– **Correctness**: True, as of the latest information, Pierre Poilievre is indeed the leader of the Conservative Party.
– **Importance**: Important, because leadership can impact election outcomes.
– **Relevance**: True, since the leader of the Conservative Party is directly related to its electoral performance.
3. **Fact**: Doug Ford secured a third-term majority government in Ontario with reduced seats after calling an early election.
– **Correctness**: True, as Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party won a third term in 2022, although the statement about an “early election” may not be accurate as it was held on schedule.
– **Importance**: Lesser Importance, as provincial election outcomes may not directly impact federal seat counts, but it reflects political sentiments which could.
– **Relevance**: True, in terms of understanding the broader political context though indirectly related to federal election outcomes.
4. **Fact**: The New Democratic Party (NDP) is now the Official Opposition in Ontario.
– **Correctness**: True, as of the most recent provincial elections, the NDP is the official opposition in Ontario.
– **Importance**: Lesser Importance, since this is a provincial context rather than federal.
– **Relevance**: False, as it does not directly affect the federal seat count for the Conservative Party.
5. **Fact**: The Liberals have regained official party status in Ontario.
– **Correctness**: True, they regained official party status after the recent provincial elections.
– **Importance**: Lesser Importance, provincial party status typically impacts federal elections indirectly.
– **Relevance**: False, as it does not directly modify the federal landscape for the Conservative Party.
6. **Fact**: Speculation that Mark Carney might lead the Liberals is thought to weaken Conservative support.
– **Correctness**: True, speculation around high-profile leaders often influences party support.
– **Importance**: Important, as it could shift voting dynamics federally.
– **Relevance**: True, because it directly pertains to potential changes in party support.
7. **Fact**: The political discourse now centers on economic protection and US trade relations in Canadian politics.
– **Correctness**: True, as current political discourse does focus considerably on these issues.
– **Importance**: Important, since dominant political themes guide election narratives.
– **Relevance**: True, as these issues can sway voter sentiment and impact how many seats parties win.
In summary, the facts related to Pierre Poilievre’s leadership and speculation about Mark Carney’s potential leadership are directly relevant to the question of the Conservative Party’s potential seat count. The other facts provide context and insight into the political climate, but have varying degrees of impact on the federal election outcome.
Fact-checked summary:
In assessing how many seats the Conservative Party might win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, the leadership of Pierre Poilievre stands as a significant factor, given that leadership can heavily influence election outcomes. Additionally, speculation that Mark Carney might lead the Liberal Party is relevant, as such speculation can alter party support dynamics, potentially affecting the seat count for the Conservatives. The political discourse, currently centered on economic protection and U.S. trade relations, also plays an important role, as it can sway voter sentiment and influence electoral results. These factors collectively contribute to understanding the potential performance of the Conservative Party in the upcoming election.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.4, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.05, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.45, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 17%
* between 172 and 205: 39%
* between 206 and 240: 33%
* more than 240: 11%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AIs predict potential gains for the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre, driven by current polling trends, historical performance, and economic issues favoring Conservative positions. However, uncertainties remain due to the potential leadership change in the Liberal Party with Mark Carney, which could alter voters’ preferences. Major electoral swings are unlikely, as historical analysis suggests moderate gains are more typical than extreme shifts. Factors such as regional dynamics, unforeseen scandals, or changes in economic and trade conditions may also affect the outcome, making the prediction inherently uncertain. Thus, while the Conservatives may improve their position, significant hurdles and uncertainties exist that could impede substantial seat increases beyond historical patterns.
Runtime: 77 seconds. All past Multi-AI Forecasts here.
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
The VIEWS Forecasting Page for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of fatalities from “state-based conflict” in Sudan through January 2028.
