How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 5%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 15%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 20%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 25%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 20%
* More than 12000: 15%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the current situation in Sudan:
The ongoing civil war in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has evolved into what the UN describes as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. According to recent UN reports, approximately 30 million people now require humanitarian assistance, including 16 million children. The situation has been marked by widespread human rights violations, including sexual violence, with UNICEF warning that an estimated 12.1 million women and girls (and increasingly men and boys) are at risk.
The conflict continues to escalate, with recent events including a deadly attack by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on El Fasher in North Darfur that killed 10 civilians and injured 23 others. The crisis is further complicated by a severe cholera outbreak in White Nile State, which has claimed nearly 100 lives in just two weeks. Adding to the political complexity, the RSF recently signed a transitional constitution, potentially moving toward establishing a parallel government.
The humanitarian situation is particularly dire, with widespread food insecurity, displacement, and limited access to basic services. International and regional voices are increasingly calling for an end to the conflict, which threatens not only Sudan’s stability but also that of the entire region. Despite these calls, the violence continues unabated, with ongoing violations and a deteriorating humanitarian situation that particularly affects vulnerable populations, including children and displaced persons.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The conflict in Sudan, ongoing since April 2023, is described by the UN as the worst humanitarian crisis globally, with around 30 million people in need of aid, including 16 million children. The crisis is exacerbated by human rights abuses and a cholera outbreak in White Nile State, further straining humanitarian efforts. The situation has intensified with recent violent incidents, including a deadly attack by the Rapid Support Forces in North Darfur, and politically, by the RSF’s signing of a transitional constitution, indicating possible moves toward creating a parallel government. International calls for peace are being made, but the violence and humanitarian challenges persist, heavily impacting vulnerable groups such as children and displaced individuals.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with assessments of their correctness, importance, and relevance to the original question:
1. **The conflict in Sudan has been ongoing since April 2023.**
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
2. **The UN describes the conflict in Sudan as the worst humanitarian crisis globally.**
– Correctness: Presumed true based on context, but verification by UN statements is needed.
– Importance: Lesser importance
– Relevance: True
3. **Around 30 million people in Sudan are in need of aid.**
– Correctness: True (based on available humanitarian reports).
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
4. **16 million children are in need of aid in Sudan.**
– Correctness: True (proportionally plausible).
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
5. **A cholera outbreak is present in White Nile State.**
– Correctness: True (cholera outbreaks often follow humanitarian crises with poor sanitation).
– Importance: Lesser importance
– Relevance: False [True? Carolyn’s note: In my humble opinion, an increase in the humanitarian situation might increase interventions by other nations to end the war or at lest leverage a ceasefire with frozen lines of control, as in the Korean Peninsula.]
6. **The crisis is exacerbated by human rights abuses.**
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
7. **There was a deadly attack by the Rapid Support Forces in North Darfur.**
– Correctness: True (such incidents are frequently reported).
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
8. **The RSF has signed a transitional constitution.**
– Correctness: Needs verification (possible, but requires specific confirmation).
– Importance: Critical if true
– Relevance: False [True? Carolyn’s note: In my humble opinion, this is highly relevant because it suggests that the RSF is seeking legitimacy as a bona fide government, useful for gaining greater support from other nations.]
9. **The RSF’s actions indicate possible moves toward creating a parallel government.**
– Correctness: Likely true (based on typical RSF behavior).
– Importance: Critical if true
– Relevance: False [True? See Carolyn’s note under #8.]
10. **International calls for peace are being made.**
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Lesser importance
– Relevance: True
11. **The situation heavily impacts vulnerable groups such as children and displaced individuals.**
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
For the purpose of forecasting conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025, facts directly impacting conflict dynamics, humanitarian interventions, and violence (such as ongoing attacks, international peace efforts, and the humanitarian impact on vulnerable groups) are most relevant.
Fact-checked summary:
The conflict in Sudan has been ongoing since April 2023 and is exacerbated by human rights abuses, with deadly attacks like those by the Rapid Support Forces in North Darfur. Around 30 million people, including 16 million children, are in need of aid, highlighting the severe humanitarian impact on vulnerable groups. This situation is critical for understanding future conflict dynamics. International calls for peace are being made, which could influence future developments. These facts emphasize important aspects of the conflict, such as the severity of humanitarian needs and the potential for changing dynamics due to international interventions, both of which are crucial for making predictions about future conflict deaths in Sudan.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.25, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.35, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.1, “More than 12000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.2, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.2, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 0.05
* Between 1000 and 3000: 15%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 20%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 25%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 20%
* More than 12000: 15%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis affecting 30 million people, with continued high levels of violence primarily driven by groups such as the Rapid Support Forces. Historical patterns of conflict and current dynamics suggest that the death toll could be substantial, with estimates ranging from 3,000 to 8,000 deaths, depending on factors like international intervention and political developments. While there are possibilities for change—such as successful international mediation, negotiation prompted by humanitarian needs, or unforeseen escalations—these outcomes remain uncertain. International efforts for peace exist but their immediate effectiveness is limited, leading to concern that despite some fluctuations, high casualty rates may persist as political instability and humanitarian needs continue to exacerbate the situation.
Runtime: 208 seconds for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Interactive VIEWS dashboard here.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 32%
* between 172 and 205: 38%
* between 206 and 240: 20%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most recently (within the past few days), polls show that the gap between the Liberal Party and Conservative Party has narrowed significantly. This comes as Mark Carney was elected as the new Liberal Party leader, replacing Justin Trudeau, and is set to become Canada’s next Prime Minister. [Carolyn’s note: Carney became Prime Minister Friday, March 14, 2025.] A federal election is expected to be called within days.
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has seen their support decrease in recent months, though their supporters remain confident. The party and affiliated activist groups have begun ramping up digital advertising campaigns targeting Carney. The upcoming election is being framed as a leadership contest, with both parties focusing on who can best lead Canada during challenging times.
Local Conservative nomination contests are occurring across the country in preparation for the election, with notable races in ridings like Red Deer, London Centre, and Nipissing-Timiskaming. The election is taking place against the backdrop of broader issues including Canada-US relations and potential trade tensions, particularly in light of the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the US presidency.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent news suggests a shifting dynamic in Canadian politics as the gap between the Liberal and Conservative parties appears to have narrowed, coinciding with Mark Carney becoming the new leader of the Liberal Party, succeeding Justin Trudeau. This change positions Carney as the prospective next Prime Minister, with a federal election anticipated shortly. The Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, has experienced a dip in support, prompting increased digital ad campaigns targeting Carney. The election is framed as a critical leadership contest, with both parties emphasizing their capabilities to steer Canada through challenging times. Local Conservative nomination contests are underway nationwide, all set against a backdrop of broader geopolitical concerns, including potential Canada-US trade tensions and the implications of a possible second Trump presidency. Due to potential inaccuracies in the newsfeed, these developments should be viewed with caution.”
Fact-checking news summary: Fact-checked summary:
Unfortunately, there is no definitive information available on the exact number of seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election. Predicting election outcomes is inherently uncertain and depends on numerous factors, including voter behavior, current political climate, and campaign effectiveness. Additionally, pre-election polls and forecasts can only provide estimations based on available data, and these may not accurately reflect the actual results. Therefore, any projection regarding the number of seats won by the Conservative Party in the next federal election would be speculative. It is important for users to understand that election predictions involve a degree of unpredictability, and confirmed results will only be available after the election takes place.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“0) less than 172”: 0.45, “1) between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “2) between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “3) more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 32%
* between 172 and 205: 38%
* between 206 and 240: 20%
* more than 240: 10%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various AI analyses suggest that predicting the number of seats the Conservative Party will win in an upcoming Canadian federal election is complex due to a variety of factors. Historical performance indicates a usual range of 120-170 seats, but achieving over 170 would require significant changes in the current political landscape. Polls show moderate gains, with factors like the first-past-the-post system, public sentiment, campaign effectiveness, and potential unforeseen events contributing to uncertainty in the outcome. Despite forecasts suggesting a range of 172-205 seats, these predictions could be skewed by events such as economic changes, party dynamics, or voter sentiment shifts. Additionally, the impact of regional parties and vote splitting further complicates the scenario.
All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
