Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast of Nov. 3, 2025

Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: 45%
11–14 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire Gaza 2025
News from various sources:

In recent developments concerning the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza, the Israeli military has resumed enforcement of the ceasefire after a series of airstrikes that resulted in the deaths of 104 Palestinians, including children. The strikes were initiated following accusations from Israel that Hamas violated the ceasefire by handing over partial remains of a hostage and killing an Israeli soldier, Master Sgt. (Res.) Yona Efraim Feldbaum, during operations in Rafah, southern Gaza. Hamas, however, denied involvement in this shooting.

These airstrikes have raised concerns about the stability of the U.S.-brokered peace deal, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordering “powerful strikes” in response to the alleged violations. As a consequence, Hamas announced a delay in returning additional remains of hostages.

U.S. President Donald Trump, during a trip to Asia, defended Israel’s actions, stating that Israel had the right to retaliate if attacked. Trump asserted that the ceasefire should hold, noting that Hamas is a small player in the broader Middle East peace process.

The aftermath of the airstrikes has resulted in significant casualties, with hospitals in Gaza overwhelmed by the number of dead and injured, many of whom are women and children. Funeral prayers were held for the numerous victims as the community mourns. Amidst this backdrop, there are calls from affected Palestinians for international intervention and support in light of the humanitarian crisis, emphasizing the need for basic necessities and freedom.

The violence presents a significant challenge to the ceasefire, which was established earlier in October, as both sides exchange accusations of violations. The situation underscores the fragility of the ceasefire and the broader complexities in achieving lasting peace in the region.

Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the summary provided, here is a list of specific facts, along with their correctness, importance to the resolution of the question, and relevance to the outcome:

1. **Fact**: The Israeli military has resumed enforcement of the ceasefire after airstrikes that resulted in the deaths of 104 Palestinians, including children.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (requires current external information).
– **Importance**: Important, as it affects the stability of the ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, as it directly relates to the question regarding whether the ceasefire will be in effect.
2. **Fact**: The airstrikes were initiated following accusations from Israel that Hamas violated the ceasefire by handing over partial remains of a hostage and killing an Israeli soldier, Master Sgt. (Res.) Yona Efraim Feldbaum, in Rafah, southern Gaza.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (requires current external information).
– **Importance**: Important, as it explains the reason for resuming hostilities which impact the ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, as it provides context to the ceasefire’s stability.
3. **Fact**: Hamas denied involvement in the shooting of the Israeli soldier.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (requires current external information).
– **Importance**: Important, as it impacts credibility and the potential for escalation.
– **Relevance**: True, as it highlights the dispute and tension affecting the ceasefire.
4. **Fact**: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered “powerful strikes” in response to alleged ceasefire violations.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (requires current external information).
– **Importance**: Important, illustrating the Israeli response to perceived threats.
– **Relevance**: True, as it impacts the ceasefire’s durability.
5. **Fact**: Hamas announced a delay in returning additional remains of hostages.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (requires current external information).
– **Importance**: Important, as it affects the hostage negotiation aspect of the ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, since it affects trust and future negotiations.
6. **Fact**: U.S. President Donald Trump, during a trip to Asia, defended Israel’s actions, stating that Israel had the right to retaliate if attacked.
– **Correctness**: False, as Trump is not the current U.S. President (outdated data).
– **Importance**: Important, in understanding international responses which influence the ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, though the detail about Trump is outdated, the U.S. position is relevant.
7. **Fact**: Trump asserted that the ceasefire should hold and noted that Hamas is a small player in the broader Middle East peace process.
– **Correctness**: False, as Trump is not the current U.S. President (outdated data).
– **Importance**: Lesser, as this opinion does not directly affect actions on the ground.
– **Relevance**: True, as political views can influence political decisions related to the ceasefire.
8. **Fact**: The airstrikes resulted in significant casualties, with many of the dead and injured being women and children.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (requires current external information).
– **Importance**: Important, as it affects international opinion and potential interventions.
– **Relevance**: True, impacts the humanitarian situation and thus the ceasefire’s sustainability.
9. **Fact**: Funeral prayers were held for numerous victims, as the community mourned.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (requires current external information).
– **Importance**: Lesser, provides emotional context.
– **Relevance**: True, but not directly related to the ceasefire’s status.
10. **Fact**: There are calls from Palestinians for international intervention and support due to a humanitarian crisis.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (requires current external information).
– **Importance**: Important, could influence international actions affecting the ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, as international intervention can help sustain or break the ceasefire.
11. **Fact**: Ceasefire was established earlier in October.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (requires current external information).
– **Importance**: Important, provides a timeline for assessing the ceasefire’s durability.
– **Relevance**: True, as the duration of the ceasefire is relevant to whether it remains by 2025.
This list consolidates facts from the summary and analyzes them concerning their correctness, importance to the overall question of the ceasefire’s longevity, and relevance to the potential resolution. Note that several facts require current external verification for full accuracy.

Fact-checked summary:
Based on the facts provided, there are no items that are definitely confirmed true and directly relevant to the question of whether the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will still be in effect by the end of 2025. The correctness of most facts requires current external verification, which is unavailable within this context. Factors such as resumed hostilities, international responses, and humanitarian impacts are important as they potentially affect the ceasefire’s sustainability. However, without verified and up-to-date information, it is difficult to definitively assess their influence on the ceasefire’s future status.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4 (40%)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.250.150.150.15
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors, we adjust the base rate. If previous ceasefire durations suggest a 30% likelihood based on history, and international mediators often contribute a 25% likelihood of success, with regional stability at 15%, and internal pressures at 15% each, we thus calculate a slightly higher than historical likelihood after considering current mediator efforts (hypothetically effective), concluding with a Bayesian updated likelihood of 0.45.
Bayesian base rate: 0.45
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 58
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the historical frequency of successful long-term ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, which is often low. The likelihood is adjusted slightly upward considering recent efforts by international mediators and pressure on both sides to maintain peace.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information needed includes real-time reports of specific actions taken to uphold the ceasefire, verified statements from key political figures involved, and reports of on-ground conditions and hostilities or deescalations since November 3, 2025.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential divergences could include unexpected political changes, regional instability in neighboring countries affecting the situation, or significant provocations that disrupt the ceasefire. Global shifts in alliances or abrupt military incidents could also lower the probability.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The ceasefire agreement is maintained until the end of 2025. (Likelihood: Possible) – No major conflict escalation between Israel and Hamas. (Likelihood: Possible) – Effective mediation by international parties. (Likelihood: Possible) – Continued pressure from international community to maintain peace. (Likelihood: Probable) – No significant changes in leadership or policy in Israel or Hamas that could lead to conflict resumption. (Likelihood: Possible)

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.45
Base rate: 0.4 (40% from OpenAI)
SD: 0.09
MAPD: 0.13333333333333
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.43
Reverse Mellers: 0.47
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.29
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 45%

The reasoning around the durability of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire until the end of 2025 centers on the historical instability of such agreements, often marked by poor longevity due to unresolved territorial and political disputes, as well as internal pressures within both Israel and Hamas. While historically ceasefires have been fragile, there is some optimism due to existing international mediations, the potential involvement of major powers, and possible strategic shifts favoring de-escalation. However, the situation remains precarious with potential risks from leadership changes, provocations, and broader regional instability. The short remaining timeframe until the end of 2025 is seen as both a challenge and a potential advantage, contingent on the sustained commitment of both parties and the effectiveness of international efforts to maintain peace.

Runtime: 105 seconds.