Updates from BestWorld’s AI Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman of Feb. 4, 2025

The International Longshoremen’s Association returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, unchanged so far this week.

Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the US dockworkers situation:

A potential major strike at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports was averted in January 2025 when the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing approximately 45,000 dock workers, reached a tentative agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). This would have been the second strike in four months, following a previous work stoppage in October 2024.
The key issue in the negotiations was automation at the ports, which had been described as the “thorniest issue on the table.” The new agreement is a six-year contract, though specific details weren’t immediately disclosed. The resolution came just days before a potential January 16 strike deadline that could have severely disrupted supply chains and potentially caused inflation and shortages of goods.

The significance of this agreement is substantial, as these ports handle massive amounts of cargo, including agricultural products, refrigerated containers of meat, and various consumer goods. A strike would have affected major ports along the East and Gulf Coasts and could have had significant implications for the US economy and global supply chains. The successful negotiation helps maintain stability in US maritime commerce and prevents potential economic disruptions that would have affected both businesses and consumers. [Carolyn’s note: they still might strike. The danger of a strike isn’t over until they forge a final agreement.]

Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“A potential strike by dock workers at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports was avoided when the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement in January 2025. The central issue was the automation of port operations, which had been contentious in the negotiations. This agreement came just days before a January 16 deadline, averting a looming disruption to supply chains that could have led to inflation and shortages of goods. Although the specific terms of the agreement were not disclosed, the resolution of the conflict prevents potential disruptions to the US economy and global supply chains, ensuring continued stability in the handling of cargo critical to various sectors, including agriculture and consumer goods. It follows a previous dock workers’ strike in October 2024, highlighting ongoing tensions in the industry.”

Fact-checking news summary:
To analyze the summary and assess the probability of a strike in Q1 2025, let’s list the specific facts stated and evaluate their accuracy, importance, and relevance:

1. **Fact:** A potential strike by dock workers at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports was avoided.
– **True/False:** True.
– **Importance:** Critical.
– **Relevance:** True.

2. **Fact:** The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement in January 2025.
– **True/False:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True.

3. **Fact:** The central issue in the negotiations was the automation of port operations.
– **True/False:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True.

4. **Fact:** The agreement was reached just days before a January 16 deadline.
– **True/False:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True.

5. **Fact:** The resolution of the conflict prevents potential disruptions to the US economy and global supply chains.
– **True/False:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True.

6. **Fact:** The resolution ensures continued stability in the handling of cargo critical to various sectors, including agriculture and consumer goods.
– **True/False:** True.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance:** True.

7. **Fact:** There was a previous dock workers’ strike in October 2024.
– **True/False:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True, as it highlights ongoing tensions, but does not directly influence the immediate outcome since it’s resolved by the new agreement.

8. **Fact:** Although specific terms of the agreement were not disclosed, it addressed the conflicts.
– **True/False:** True.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance (since the existence of an agreement is more crucial than the specifics for the question at hand).
– **Relevance:** True.

Based on these facts and assessments, the probability of a strike in Q1 2025 is low because the key issue was addressed in the tentative agreement that prevents an immediate strike. However, ongoing tensions in the industry suggest it would be wise to monitor the situation closely for any developments that could reignite disputes.

Fact-checked summary:
Based on the fact-checked information, the probability of a strike in Q1 2025 is low, as a potential strike by dock workers at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports was avoided due to a tentative six-year agreement reached between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) in January 2025. The resolution, which was achieved just days before a crucial January 16 deadline, addressed significant issues such as the automation of port operations. This agreement is important as it prevents potential disruptions to the US economy and global supply chains, ensuring continued stability in handling cargo critical to sectors like agriculture and consumer goods. Although the industry previously experienced a strike in October 2024, the new agreement suggests immediate tensions have been resolved, though monitoring for future developments remains prudent.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.1. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the recent resolution of a potential strike through a six-year agreement, which significantly reduces the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025.[Carolyn’s note: there is no “six year agreement,” only a tentative agreement. Negotiations are continuing.] Historically, after reaching such agreements, the chance of immediate strikes diminishes as parties aim to maintain stability. However, given that strikes can arise from unforeseen issues, a low base rate is still assigned.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Factors that could diverge the outcome from the base rate include unexpected economic pressures, political influence, or rapid technological changes that could upset the current agreement. Additionally, leadership changes within the involved organizations or significant global supply chain disruptions could trigger reconsideration of the agreement’s terms.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Failure to ratify the tentative six-year agreement between ILA and USMX. Low
– Emergence of unresolved issues leading to further disputes despite the agreement. Low
– Considerable external pressures that could destabilize the current agreement. Moderate to Low

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 7
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.15 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.03
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3

Model value: 0.15

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AI summaries is that the recent six-year agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), reached in January 2025, significantly reduces the probability of a strike in Q1 2025. This agreement addresses key issues, including automation, and was reached just before a critical deadline, indicating both parties’ commitment to stability. Historically, such agreements are followed by periods of labor peace. However, while the likelihood of a strike is low, potential destabilizing factors such as unratified agreements, further automation disputes, unexpected economic or political pressures, leadership changes, or global supply chain disruptions could still lead to conflicts or a reconsideration of the terms. These factors highlight the residual unpredictability in the situation.





How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today:  How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
* less than 172: 45%
* between 172 and 205: 30%
* between 206 and 240: 20%
* more than 240: 5%

Most recently (within the last 24-48 hours), there’s significant focus on the impact of new U.S. tariffs on the Canadian election landscape. A 25% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on goods from Canada and Mexico has become a major campaign issue, particularly in Ontario where provincial elections are ramping up for 2025.

The Conservative Party is showing strong momentum, with recent reports indicating their 2024 fundraising nearly doubled the combined total of the Liberal and NDP parties. Poll numbers continue to favor Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to win the next federal election, which must be held by October 20th but may occur sooner. However, an Angus Reid poll suggests the Liberal Party could perform better if Mark Carney were to take leadership, though Poilievre would still be favored to win.

Key election issues emerging across both federal and provincial levels include:
– Cost of living and housing affordability
– Healthcare
– Economic management
– Climate change and carbon pricing
– Job protection (particularly in light of new U.S. tariffs)

The political landscape appears to be shifting, with equity investors showing optimism about potential changes in economic priorities after nine years of Liberal Party governance. The combination of strong Conservative fundraising and polling numbers suggests significant potential for political change in upcoming elections.

Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent Canadian election-related developments indicate a shifting political landscape, with U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods becoming a major campaign issue, particularly affecting Ontario as it prepares for provincial elections in 2025. The Conservative Party appears to have strong momentum, with reports of their 2024 fundraising efforts nearly doubling those of the Liberal and NDP parties combined, and polls favoring Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre for the next federal election, though the Liberals could see improvement under potential leadership by Mark Carney. Key issues in both federal and provincial elections include cost of living, healthcare, economic management, climate change, and job protection amid the new tariffs. Investors are optimistic about a possible shift in economic priorities after nearly a decade of Liberal governance, suggesting potential for significant political changes in the near future. However, it’s important to note that the newsfeed may contain unsubstantiated information, requiring careful consideration.”

Fact-checking news summary:
Fact-checked summary:
I’m sorry, but I cannot accurately predict the number of seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election. Political outcomes depend on various factors, including public opinion, campaign strategies, and changes in voter turnout. Any statements regarding future election results are speculative, and no factual information is available to definitively answer the question.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.55, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3

Model value:
* less than 172: 0.45
* between 172 and 205: 0.3
* between 206 and 240: 0.2
* more than 240: 0.05

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:

The various AI analyses converge on the assessment that while the Conservative Party of Canada shows potential for seat gains in upcoming federal elections, significant hurdles exist for them to secure a majority of more than 172 seats. Historical election performance, current polling trends, and the prevailing political climate are critical factors that suggest modest gains as the most probable scenario, though regional dynamics add complexity to predictions. Despite a moderate lead in polls, factors such as voter volatility, unpredictable regional support, and potential strategic voting or shifts in voter sentiment during the campaign season could significantly affect the outcomes. Moreover, unforeseen events, such as scandals or effective rival campaigns, as well as the inherent unreliability of polling, suggest that predictions would benefit from cautious interpretation and flexibility in accounting for dynamic electoral conditions.

Runtime for questions on this page: 213 seconds

Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts

Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports 

Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).

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