What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 10%, down from yesterday’s 15% and greatly from 71% last week.
Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources. Here’s a summary of the recent developments regarding the US Steel-Nippon Steel merger situation:
Most Recent Events (Past Week):
US Steel and Nippon Steel have filed lawsuits against the Biden administration following the President’s decision to block their proposed $14.3 billion merger. The companies filed their legal challenges on Monday, arguing that Biden’s decision was politically motivated and violated the Constitution. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has defended the administration’s decision, stating that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) conducted a thorough analysis of the deal.
Background and Context: The merger would have involved Japan’s Nippon Steel acquiring US Steel for $14.9 billion. The Biden administration blocked the deal citing national security concerns. Nippon Steel’s chairman has indicated there is no “Plan B” alternative to the blocked merger. The lawsuit also names the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs as defendants, suggesting broader industry opposition to the deal.
Current Status: The situation has evolved into a significant legal and political dispute, with implications for US-Japan trade relations. Japan’s Prime Minister has urged Washington to address concerns about the blocked merger. The case highlights tensions between the Biden administration’s industrial policy goals, national security considerations, and international business interests.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “US Steel and Nippon Steel have initiated legal action against the Biden administration following the President’s decision to block their proposed $14.3 billion merger on national security grounds. The companies filed lawsuits on Monday, alleging that the decision was politically motivated and unconstitutional. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has supported the administration’s stance, emphasizing CFIUS’s detailed review of the deal. The lawsuit also implicates the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs, indicating further industry opposition. Japanese officials, including the Prime Minister, have expressed concerns, highlighting potential strains on US-Japan trade relations. This legal and political conflict underscores tensions between the administration’s national security priorities and international business interests.”
Fact-checking news summary: Let’s examine the specific facts from the summary:
1. **Fact: US Steel and Nippon Steel have initiated legal action against the Biden administration.**
– **Correct?** True. The companies have filed lawsuits.
– **Relevant to Outcome?** True. The legal action affects the likelihood of the merger being approved or announced.
2. **Fact: President Biden decided to block the proposed $14.3 billion merger on national security grounds.**
– **Correct?** True. The summary states that the President blocked the merger on these grounds.
– **Relevant to Outcome?** True. This decision is central to the probability of the merger being announced.
3. **Fact: The companies filed lawsuits on Monday.**
– **Correct?** Verification would require checking the specific filing date, but assuming internal consistency, True.
– **Relevant to Outcome?** True. The timing of legal actions might affect how soon a resolution is reached.
4. **Fact: The decision to block the merger was allegedly politically motivated and unconstitutional.**
– **Correct?** True (as an allegation). The companies have made this claim in their lawsuit.
– **Relevant to Outcome?** True. If the court rules in favor of the companies, it affects the merger’s chances.
5. **Fact: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has supported the administration’s stance.**
– **Correct?** True. According to the summary, she emphasized CFIUS’s review.
– **Relevant to Outcome?** True. Her support indicates the administration’s firm position, which impacts the merger’s prospects.
6. **Fact: CFIUS conducted a detailed review of the deal.**
– **Correct?** True. CFIUS reviews are standard for deals with national security implications.
– **Relevant to Outcome?** True. A detailed review supports the administration’s decision and hence affects the merger’s probability.
7. **Fact: The lawsuit implicates the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs.**
– **Correct?** True. The summary mentions industry opposition including these entities.
– **Relevant to Outcome?** True. Opposition from these stakeholders influences the merger’s future.
8. **Fact: Japanese officials, including the Prime Minister, have expressed concerns.**
– **Correct?** True. The summary notes concerns from Japanese officials.
– **Relevant to Outcome?** True. Concerns from Japan may impact diplomatic and economic considerations related to the merger.
9. **Fact: The conflict underscores tensions between the administration’s national security priorities and international business interests.**
– **Correct?** True. The summary clearly states these tensions.
– **Relevant to Outcome?** True. Understanding this context is crucial for assessing the merger’s likelihood of occurrence.
Overall, all the facts are consistent with the summary provided, and all are relevant to determining the probability of the merger being officially announced by the given date.
Fact-checked summary: The probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025, is directly influenced by several key factors. The merger faces significant barriers, notably President Biden’s decision to block the proposed $14.3 billion deal on national security grounds. This decision was reinforced by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s support of the administration’s stance and a detailed review conducted by CFIUS, underscoring national security concerns. In response to the block, US Steel and Nippon Steel have initiated legal action, alleging that the decision was politically motivated and unconstitutional. The outcome of this lawsuit could alter the merger’s prospects. Additionally, opposition from entities like the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs, coupled with expressed concerns from Japanese officials, further complicates the landscape for the merger. These tensions highlight the broader conflicts between the administration’s national security priorities and international business interests, all of which play crucial roles in determining whether the merger announcement will occur by the specified date.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.1. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
To arrive at the base rate, I considered the significant hurdles currently surrounding the merger, notably the strong opposition from the US government on national security grounds. Historical precedents of similar mergers facing national security blocks show a low probability of reversal, especially within the short timeframe remaining until January 21, 2025. The legal action, while potentially influential, is unlikely to resolve in favor of the merger in the remaining days. Additionally, stakeholder concerns add complexity, making it difficult for an agreement to be reached swiftly.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: A potential shift in geopolitical priorities or a significant legal precedent overturning the current block could alter the resolution in favor of the merger. If US Steel and Nippon Steel can demonstrably address national security concerns to the U.S. government’s satisfaction, there might be room for reconsideration despite the time constraints. An unexpected change in administration policy, possibly prompted by new diplomatic negotiations or economic pressures, could also influence the outcome.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Resolution of the legal action initiated by US Steel and Nippon Steel in favor of proceeding with the merger. Unlikely.
– Overcoming the national security concerns raised by President Biden and supported by the Treasury Secretary. Unlikely.
– Sufficient negotiation and compromise to satisfy concerns from stakeholders such as the United Steelworkers union, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Japanese officials. Unlikely.
– Finalization and announcement of the merger once legal and political barriers are cleared. Unlikely.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 8)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 3)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.05
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.01
Reverse Mellers: 0.13
Theory of Mind: 0.15 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 1
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.05
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AIs indicates a low probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger proceeding due to several formidable barriers. The Biden administration, supported by Treasury Secretary Yellen and CFIUS, has blocked the merger on national security grounds, making legal and regulatory challenges difficult to resolve, especially with the limited timeframe until January 21, 2025. Historical precedents suggest such blocks are rarely overturned swiftly. Stakeholder opposition from entities such as the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs further complicates the situation. However, some possible scenarios for reversing this include an unexpected swift legal victory, a major shift in US administration policy due to geopolitical or economic pressures, or the companies addressing national security concerns satisfactorily. Despite these possibilities, the general outlook remains pessimistic given the current circumstances.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 10%, down from yesterday’s 15%.
Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources. Based on the recent news articles, here’s a summary of the port workers’ strike situation:
A potential major strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports has been averted as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dock workers, reached a tentative agreement with port operators on January 8-9, 2025. The agreement comes just days before a threatened January 15 deadline that could have frozen operations at major ports.
The key issue in the dispute was automation at ports, with workers concerned about job security and the impact of automated systems on their livelihoods. The tentative agreement, which still needs to be ratified, is for a new six-year contract between the union and port operators. Notably, the union credited former President Trump for helping to facilitate the deal, while notably not mentioning President Biden in their statement.
This marks the second time in recent months that a major port strike has been averted, following earlier labor tensions in October 2024. The resolution is significant for the U.S. economy, as a strike would have severely disrupted supply chains and could have led to increased costs for consumers. The ports affected handle billions of dollars worth of cargo annually, making them crucial infrastructure for U.S. trade.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “A potential strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports was narrowly avoided after the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) reached a tentative agreement with port operators on January 8-9, 2025. This agreement, which awaits ratification, addresses workers’ concerns about automation and job security, and proposes a new six-year contract. The situation was averted just before a critical January 15 deadline, with the union acknowledging former President Trump’s role in facilitating the deal while not mentioning President Biden. This is the second avoidance of a major port strike in recent months, following similar tensions in October 2024. The resolution is vital for maintaining uninterrupted supply chains vital to the U.S. economy, as the ports are key to handling billions of dollars in cargo annually.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with checks for external/internal consistency and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** A potential strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports was narrowly avoided after the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) reached a tentative agreement with port operators on January 8-9, 2025.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, assuming the summary is accurate.
– **Relevance (True/False):** True. The agreement is directly related to the likelihood of a strike, as reaching an agreement reduces strike probability.
2. **Fact:** The tentative agreement addresses workers’ concerns about automation and job security.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, assuming the summary is accurate.
– **Relevance (True/False):** True. Addressing these concerns is relevant to predicting strike likelihood.
3. **Fact:** The tentative agreement proposes a new six-year contract.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, assuming the summary is accurate.
– **Relevance (True/False):** True. A longer contract would typically reduce the probability of a near-term strike.
4. **Fact:** The situation was averted just before a critical January 15 deadline.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, assuming the summary is accurate.
– **Relevance (True/False):** True. Timing and proximity to deadlines influence industrial actions like strikes.
5. **Fact:** The union acknowledged former President Trump’s role in facilitating the deal.
– **Correct (True/False):** Externally uncertain, as this is not a standard fact that could be verified without additional sources.
– **Relevance (True/False):** False. The acknowledgment does not directly affect the likelihood of a strike.
6. **Fact:** The union did not mention President Biden in relation to the deal.
– **Correct (True/False):** Externally uncertain, similar to the above, requires additional sourcing.
– **Relevance (True/False):** False. The lack of mention does not affect the strike probability.
7. **Fact:** This is the second avoidance of a major port strike in recent months, following similar tensions in October 2024.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, assuming the summary is accurate.
– **Relevance (True/False):** True. Historical patterns of strike avoidance can influence future strike probabilities.
8. **Fact:** The resolution is vital for maintaining uninterrupted supply chains crucial to the U.S. economy, as the ports handle billions of dollars in cargo annually.
– **Correct (True/False):** True. Ports are crucial for U.S. supply chains (externally verifiable).
– **Relevance (True/False):** True. The economic importance of ports underlines why parties would work to avoid strikes.
Overall, the summary suggests that the probability of a strike in Q1 2025 is low, due to a tentative agreement being reached that addresses key concerns and proposes a long-term contract. The factors directly related to the resolution of the potential strike are most relevant to assessing future strike risk.
Fact-checked summary: A potential strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports was narrowly avoided after the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) reached a tentative agreement with port operators on January 8-9, 2025. The agreement addresses workers’ concerns about automation and job security, and proposes a new six-year contract. This timing, just before a critical January 15 deadline, further reduces the immediate likelihood of a strike. Additionally, historical patterns, including the avoidance of a major port strike in recent months, suggest a reduced probability of industrial action. The resolution is crucial for maintaining uninterrupted U.S. supply chains, highlighting the importance of avoiding strikes to handle billions of dollars in cargo annually. Overall, these factors suggest a low probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.1.
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is primarily based on the significant progress made in the recent negotiations between the ILA and port operators, leading to a tentative agreement narrowly avoiding the strike. Historical patterns of avoiding strikes after similar negotiations support the low likelihood of a strike occurring soon. Given the high stakes in maintaining seamless U.S. supply chains, there is a strong incentive for all parties to uphold the agreement. Furthermore, the timing of the agreement just before a critical deadline reduces the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Despite the low probability, there remains a risk that the tentative agreement may face opposition or collapse due to unforeseen disagreements among union members or port operators. Additionally, economic changes or shifts in the political landscape could introduce new challenges, prompting reconsideration of the agreed terms. However, such events are considered unlikely given the current situation and historical precedents.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The tentative agreement reached on January 8-9, 2025, between the ILA and port operators is rejected by the workers or port operators. (Unlikely)
– Significant disagreement on key terms of the agreement, such as automation and job security, resurfaces before the agreement is finalized. (Unlikely)
– External factors, such as economic downturns or changes in trade policy, arise and disrupt the current agreement or negotiations. (Unlikely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 7
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.2 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.03
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AI systems suggests that the tentative agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port operators has significantly reduced the immediate risk of a strike. Key aspects of the agreement, such as addressing concerns around automation and job security, as well as historical patterns where strikes are uncommon following successful negotiations, contribute to this prediction. The agreement’s timing, right before a critical deadline, demonstrates strong commitments from both parties to avoid disruptions. However, there remains a minor risk due to potential rejection by union members or unforeseen economic and political changes that could challenge the agreement’s stability. While the likelihood of a strike is diminished by the current positive momentum in negotiations, these uncertainties mean it cannot be completely ruled out.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today:
* less than 172: 30.3%
* between 172 and 205: 40.4%
* between 206 and 240: 20.2%
* more than 240: 9.1%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the key developments in Canadian politics:
Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Prime Minister on January 6, 2024, with the Liberal Party set to choose his successor on March 9, 2024. This person will become Canada’s next Prime Minister until the next federal election, which must be held before October 2025.
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is currently experiencing a surge in popularity as Trudeau’s Liberal government faces declining support. Recent polling shows growing conservative momentum across Canada, with some commentators describing it as a pushback against what they view as increasingly progressive policies. The Conservative Party has been particularly critical of Liberal policies like the carbon tax and is positioning itself as an alternative to Trudeau’s governance style.
The political landscape is further complicated by several factors:
– The upcoming U.S. presidential election and its potential impact on Canada-U.S. relations
– Debates over climate policy, particularly the carbon tax which has become a contentious election issue
– Regional political developments, such as controversy over voting irregularities in British Columbia’s recent provincial election
– Questions about how different party leaders would handle relations with the U.S., especially if Donald Trump returns to power.
This represents a significant moment of transition in Canadian politics, with the combination of Trudeau’s departure and strong Conservative opposition suggesting the possibility of major political changes in the upcoming federal election.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent developments in Canadian politics include the announcement of Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Prime Minister, effective January 6, 2024. The Liberal Party is set to select his successor on March 9, 2024, who will serve as the interim Prime Minister until the next federal election, due before October 2025. Simultaneously, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is gaining traction amid waning support for the Liberal government, with criticisms focusing on progressive policies such as the carbon tax. This shift in momentum occurs amidst broader discussions about climate policy, regional issues like voting irregularities in British Columbia, and concerns about Canada-U.S. relations, particularly in light of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The political scene is poised for potential significant changes, highlighting a pivotal moment in Canadian governance.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with an assessment of their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Prime Minister, effective January 6, 2024.**
– **Correctness:** False. As of October 2023, there is no verified claim or announcement of Justin Trudeau resigning as Prime Minister.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The resignation of a party leader could impact the party’s performance in an upcoming election.
2. **The Liberal Party is set to select Trudeau’s successor on March 9, 2024.**
– **Correctness:** False. There is no record or announcement confirming this event as of October 2023.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The selection of a new party leader could affect the strategy and popularity of the party, impacting election results.
3. **The next federal election is due before October 2025.**
– **Correctness:** True. The last Canadian federal election was held in September 2021, and elections are generally held every four years. Therefore, the next one should be before October 2025.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The timing of the election is directly relevant to when the seats would be won or lost.
4. **The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is gaining traction amid waning support for the Liberal government.**
– **Correctness:** True. As of 2023, Pierre Poilievre is indeed the leader of the Conservative Party, and some reports suggest increasing support amid criticisms of the Liberal government.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Rising support for a party increases its chances of winning more seats in an election.
5. **Criticisms focus on progressive policies such as the carbon tax.**
– **Correctness:** True. The carbon tax has been a point of contention in Canadian politics, with criticisms from opposition parties like the Conservatives.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Public opinion on policies can influence electoral results for parties that endorse or oppose them.
6. **Broader discussions about climate policy, regional issues like voting irregularities in British Columbia, and concerns about Canada-U.S. relations are occurring.**
– **Correctness:** Partially True. Climate policy is an ongoing issue in Canadian politics. However, there are no widely reported and verified issues about voting irregularities in British Columbia in recent times, and Canada-U.S. relations are always a topic, particularly around U.S. elections.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. These discussions can impact political dynamics and voter preferences.
7. **Canada-U.S. relations are a significant issue, particularly in light of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.**
– **Correctness:** True. Canada-U.S. relations often come into focus around U.S. elections due to potential policy shifts.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Changes in international relations can affect a party’s stance and potentially voter support, influencing election results.
The summary does not directly predict the number of seats the Conservative Party will win but provides context that might influence electoral outcomes.
Fact-checked summary: The next Canadian federal election is due before October 2025, which is crucial as it determines the timing of when the electoral outcomes will be known. As of 2023, the Conservative Party, under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, is reportedly gaining traction amid declining support for the Liberal government, potentially increasing their chances of winning more seats. Criticisms are focused on progressive policies such as the carbon tax, which could influence voter behavior. Climate policy discussions and Canada-U.S. relations, particularly in light of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, are also significant issues that can impact political dynamics and voter preferences. These factors provide context to how the Conservative Party might perform in the upcoming election, though they do not directly predict the number of seats the party will win.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.09] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.4, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.303
* between 172 and 205: 0.404
* between 206 and 240: 0.202
* more than 240: 0.091
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction of the Conservative Party’s potential gains in the next Canadian election takes into consideration several key factors. Current polling data shows a rise in Conservative support and a decline in Liberal popularity, particularly due to criticisms of policies like the carbon tax under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership. Historical trends indicate a moderate but not overwhelming gain for the Conservatives, given the usual volatility and competitive nature of Canadian politics. The timing of the election, set before October 2025, allows for potential shifts in public opinion, which can be influenced by both internal political dynamics and external factors, such as Canada-US relations and global climate policy debates. However, this forecast might be disrupted by unforeseen political developments, such as shifts in economic conditions, scandals, or international crises, which could alter voter sentiment and lead to unexpected electoral outcomes. The potential for regional voting patterns and vote splitting further adds complexity to the prediction, highlighting the uncertainty inherent in political forecasting.
Runtime for all forecasts on this page: 217 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
