India/Pakistan military clashes? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, May 19, 2025

Will ACLED report any conflict fatalities by India against Pakistan or vice versa between May 13 and the end of May?

Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle bot predicts 35%. Below, a summary of how it arrived at this result.
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: ACLED India Pakistan conflict May 2023
Results from around the web:

Okay, I need to answer the user’s query about finding current web results related to ACLED, India-Pakistan conflict in May 2023, and provide summaries along with tables of relevant data and URLs. Let me start by reviewing the search results provided.

First, looking at the search results, [1] is the ACLED website which gives background on their conflict index. [2] is a regional overview from May 2023 mentioning inter-ethnic clashes in Manipur, India, and increased violence in Jammu & Kashmir. The user’s query specifically mentions May 2023, so this is relevant. The section on Jammu & Kashmir in [2] notes a doubling of clashes compared to April, with specific events like the IED attack on May 5th.

Result [3] discusses the decline in violence in Kashmir according to ACLED data but points out low Positive Peace Index scores for India and Pakistan. It also mentions the suspension of treaties and military actions between the two countries.

[5] is a CFR article from May 2025 detailing military strikes by India against Pakistan, which seems to be a later escalation, but the user’s query is about May 2023. Wait, the date in [3] is 2025-05-16, which is after May 2023. The user might be interested in the May 2023 events, so perhaps there’s a mix-up in dates here. Need to check if the user intended 2023 or 2025. The query says May 2023, so I should focus on that, but the search results include 2025 data. Maybe the user made a typo, or the sources include later analyses. I’ll proceed with the information given, noting the dates.

The user wants a summary of web results, so I need to include all relevant sources. [4] is a dataset link but doesn’t provide specific data. [5] from May 2025 describes an escalation in 2025, which might be beyond the user’s requested timeframe. However, since the user included it, I should mention it but clarify the timeline.

For tables, the user asked for relevant data in tabbed or comma-separated format. From [2], the key data points are the twenty-five-fold increase in political violence in Manipur and doubled clashes in Jammu & Kashmir. From [3], the Positive Peace Index scores for India (87th, 3.25) and Pakistan (128th, 3.64). Also, the Dyadic Inter-State War Dataset info. The CFR article [5] has details on casualties and military actions, but since it’s May 2025, I’ll note that as a later development.

Time series data isn’t explicitly provided in the search results, but I can infer changes from April to May 2023 based on [2]. The Manipur violence increased 25x, Jammu & Kashmir clashes doubled. I can present that as a table with period, value, change from previous, mean, etc., but since there’s limited data, maybe just the two months. However, the user might expect more data points. If there’s insufficient data, I should mention that.

Finally, the URLs used are [1], [2], [3], and [5]. [4] is a dataset link but without specific data used. [5] is included as it’s a relevant source even though it’s from 2025. Need to check if the user wants sources strictly from May 2023. The query says “current web results,” but the current date given is May 2025. The user might want the most recent info, including 2025. So include all relevant sources, noting the dates.

In summary, the answer should cover the May 2023 events from [2], the analysis from [3], and mention the 2025 escalation from [5]. Tables will include conflict events and PPI scores. Time series might be limited. Conclude with the URLs of the sources cited.

The ACLED data and related sources from May 2023 highlight escalating India-Pakistan tensions centered on Kashmir, alongside broader conflict trends. Below is a structured analysis of key developments, datasets, and contextual factors:
—
## Conflict Events Summary (May 2023)
**Jammu & Kashmir**:
– Clashes between Indian security forces and militants **doubled** compared to April 2023, with 10 recorded events[2].
– A notable IED attack by the People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) on 5 May killed five soldiers in Rajouri district[2]. PAFF is linked to Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad[2].

**Regional Escalation**:
– India suspended the **Indus Waters Treaty**, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and launched cross-border strikes targeting terrorist camps[3].
– Pakistan retaliated by suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement, closing airspace to Indian flights, and initiating cross-border shelling[3].
—
## Quantitative Data

### Conflict Metrics (May 2023 vs. April 2023)

Lower scores indicate weaker institutional capacity to sustain peace[3].
—
## Later Developments (2025)
While outside the May 2023 scope, a **2025 CFR report** notes:
– India conducted its largest air strikes on Pakistan since 1971, killing over 20[5].
– Pakistan claimed downing five Indian jets and retaliated with shelling, killing nine[5].
– Both nations conducted airspace closures and evacuation drills[5].
—
## Sources Used
1. [ACLED Conflict Index Methodology](https://acleddata.com)
2. [ACLED Asia-Pacific Regional Overview (May 2023)](https://acleddata.com/2023/06/09/regional-overview-asia-pacific-may-2023/)
3. [Analysis of Negative Peace in Kashmir (2025)](https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/creating-negative-peace-what-the-data-says-about-violence-and-terrorism-in-kashmir/)
4. [2025 India-Pakistan Escalation (CFR)](https://www.cfr.org/article/india-pakistan-conflict-escalates)
*Note: Time-series statistical calculations (mean, median, etc.) require granular longitudinal data not explicitly provided in sources.*

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Past Year Conflict Trends, 0.4
Diplomatic Tensions and Agreements, 0.3
ACLED Data Violence Increase, 0.2
Global Political Climate, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors weightings and current evidence on clashes doubling in Jammu & Kashmir, we update the prior probability (base rate) of 0.3. Assume current evidence supports a 0.5 likelihood of escalation. Using a simplistic Bayesian approach: Posterior = (0.5 * 0.3) / ((0.5 * 0.3) + (0.5 * (1 – 0.3))) = 0.3.
Bayesian base rate: 0.3
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: reference_class
Expected time (days) until question close: 365 (Carolyn’s note: Error! There are only12 more days until the end of May, when this question closes.)

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the historical frequency of India-Pakistan conflicts, especially focused on Kashmir, alongside current indicators of increasing violence and diplomatic break-downs.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Ideally, access to more granular month-by-month conflict data, detailed insights on internal political pressures within India and Pakistan, and intelligence on any ongoing peace talks or back-channel communications.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Any new peace treaties or negotiations reducing tensions, or shifts in global political alliances that might influence the two nations’ behaviors, could lower the probability of escalation from the base rate.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The frequency of clashes between Indian security forces and militants in Jammu & Kashmir continues to increase beyond the current doubled rate. (likely)
– Continued escalation in diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan, such as suspension of treaties and extraditing diplomats, leading to further militarized actions. (possible)
– India and Pakistan engage in significant retaliatory measures, sustaining a conflict escalation similar to what was seen in 2025. (unlikely)

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.75 – confidence: 7)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.19
MAPD: 0.26666666666667
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.35
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
(Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>)

Model value: 35%

The AI predictions regarding the likelihood of conflicts between India and Pakistan rely heavily on historical patterns of discord, particularly in the Kashmir region, where clashes appear to be escalating. Recent data highlights a significant rise in militant activities and diplomatic tensions, pointing towards a potential increase in conflict likelihood. Despite these factors, several elements introduce unpredictability into the prediction, including the potential for rapid diplomatic interventions, discrepancies in report methodology, and the possibility of non-fatal forms of conflict. Additionally, while the timeframe is limited, which could both restrict and hasten actions, the role of international diplomacy and global political shifts could moderate the severity of immediate escalation.

Runtime: 64 seconds.