How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of May 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
* Less than 100: 8%
* Between 100 and 250: 20%
* Between 250 and 500: 45%
* Between 500 and 1000: 17.5%
* Greater than 1000 9.5%
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: ACLED Syria state-actor conflict deaths May 2025
Results from around the web:
Okay, I need to tackle this query about ACLED Syria state-actor conflict deaths in May 2025. Let’s start by looking at the provided search results.
First, the user wants current web results from news sites, Wikipedia, official websites, and prediction markets. The main keywords are ACLED, Syria, state-actor conflict deaths, May 2025. The answer should include a summary with tables of relevant data, a time series if possible, and sources.
Looking at the search results, [1] and [2] are ACLED reports from May 2025. [1] mentions Syrian Network for Human Rights reporting 803 extrajudicial killings in March 2025, which is a bit before May but might be relevant context. [2] notes a 138% increase in US strike fatalities in April 2025 with 362 deaths, including 150 civilians. That’s state-actor involvement (US), so that’s key. [3] is from March 2025 about coastal Syria, unclear exact numbers but mentions mass graves. [4] is SNHR reporting 11 American citizens killed or disappeared, mostly by Assad and ISIS. [5] is a Wikipedia page on Southern Syria clashes in April-May 2025, detailing Israeli and Turkish involvement, attacks in Suwayda, and casualties.
The user wants tables. Let’s extract data points. From [2]: April fatalities from US strikes: 362 total, 150 civilians. From [5]: May 2-3 Israeli airstrikes in Rif Dimashq, Hama, Daraa: 1 civilian death, 4 injuries. Also, the explosion in Suwayda on May 2 killed 4, possibly by Israeli drone. Turkish jets in Idlib and Aleppo. Israeli helicopter transported injured Druze.
For time series, but the data is only for April and May 2025. Maybe present April vs May. However, the May data is split into early May events. Since the user wants a time series, perhaps break down May into specific dates. April has 362 deaths, May 2-3 has 1 death, and the Suwayda explosion adds 4, but need to check if those are state-actor related. The Suwayda attack is attributed to Israel by Syrian media, so that’s state-actor. So May totals would be at least 5 (1 from airstrikes, 4 from explosion).
Wait, the explosion killed 4, and the airstrikes killed 1. So May total is 5. April had 362. Change is -357. Mean would be (362+5)/2 = 183.5. Geometric mean sqrt(362*5) ≈ 42.64. Median 183.5. Standard deviation sqrt(((362-183.5)^2 + (5-183.5)^2)/2) ≈ 252.5. But this is simplified since the time periods are different (April full month vs partial May data).
The user might want monthly data, but since May data is only early May, maybe note that.
Tables: First, summary of incidents. Then time series. Let’s structure the summary table with Date, Location, Actor, Deaths, Source. For example:
Then time series table with period, deaths, change, mean, etc. But since only two data points (April and May partial), maybe present as:
But May is partial, so need to note that. Also, the user asked for time series with period, value, change from previous, mean, etc. Maybe include all stats for the two periods. However, May’s data is incomplete, so the stats might not be meaningful. Alternatively, present the data as is and note the limitation.
Sources used are [1], [2], [4], [5]. [3] is from March and not directly relevant to May. [4] mentions American citizens but not state-actor deaths in May. So sources 2 and 5 are primary here.
Need to format the answer with summary, tables, and sources. Check if the user wants URLs listed at the end. Yes, the query says to conclude with a list of URLs. So include the URLs from the sources cited.
The ACLED data and related sources for May 2025 indicate escalating state-actor involvement in Syria, particularly by Israel, the US, and Turkey. Key developments include increased airstrikes, civilian casualties, and cross-border operations. Below is a structured summary of the findings:
—
## **Key Incidents (April–May 2025)**
**US-led operations**
– **April 2025**: US strikes resulted in **362 fatalities** (138% increase from March), including approximately **150 civilians**[2].
**Israeli operations**
– **2 May 2025**: A drone explosion in Suwayda’s western countryside killed **4 individuals** (allegedly linked to Israel)[5].
– **2–3 May 2025**: Israeli airstrikes in Rif Dimashq, Hama, and Daraa caused **1 civilian death** and **4 injuries**[5].
– Israel also airlifted injured Druze civilians to Safed for medical treatment[5].
**Turkish involvement**
– Turkish jets conducted flights near the Syria-Turkey border, deploying electronic jamming measures during Israeli airstrikes[5].
—
## **Data Tables**
### **Incident Summary**
*Data for May 2025 is partial (as of 3 May 2025).
—
## **Sources**
1. [ACLED Regional Overview Middle East: May 2025] (https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/acled-regional-overview-middle-east-may-2025)
2. [Southern Syria clashes (April–May 2025) – Wikipedia] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Syria_clashes_(April%E2%80%93May_2025))
3. [Syrian Network for Human Rights Report] (https://snhr.org/blog/2025/05/12/at-least-eleven-american-citizens-have-been-killed-or-forcibly-disappeared-during-the-armed-conflict-in-syria-most-of-them-by-the-assad-regime-and-isis/)
—
The escalation reflects heightened regional tensions, with multiple state actors conducting overlapping operations. Civilian casualties remain a critical concern, particularly in contested areas like Suwayda.
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of ACLED state-actor conflict deaths being between 250-500 in May 2025
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Average monthly state-actor conflict fatalities in Syria, 0.5
Recent escalation in military activity by the US, Israel, and Turkey in Syria, 0.3
Trend of fatalities from previous months (April data), 0.2
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors, the probability is adjusted: (0.5 * 0.6) + (0.3 * 0.8) + (0.2 * 0.5) = 0.69.
Bayesian base rate: 0.69 (Carolyn’s note: this calculation returned a probability of ??? Instead of a number rate of fatalities.)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 9
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived by considering the historical average of state-actor conflict deaths in Syria, recent reports of increased military activity, and the escalation patterns observed in past months.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data from reliable on-the-ground sources, real-time monitoring of conflict zones, and detailed reports on ongoing military operations would improve forecast accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
There may be under-reporting of fatalities, sudden de-escalation of conflicts, or diplomatic interventions that could result in lower recorded fatalities than estimated.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued state-actor military operations in Syria through May 2025, such as airstrikes or cross-border incidents. Likelihood: High.
– Significant presence and activities by foreign state actors like the US, Israel, and Turkey in the region during May 2025. Likelihood: High.
– Documented fatalities involving state-actors that are reported by reliable sources such as ACLED or SNHR. Likelihood: High.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.15, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.25, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.4, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.15, “Greater than 1000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (Error: Mistral is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.01, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.15, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.5, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.2, “Greater than 1000”: 0.14] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0, Max: 0
# LLM responses: 2
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
* Less than 100: 8%
* Between 100 and 250: 20%
* Between 250 and 500: 45%
* Between 500 and 1000: 17.5%
* Greater than 1000 9.5%
The various AI analyses predict an increase in state-actor-induced fatalities in Syria for April 2025, citing increased military activities by the US, Israel, and Turkey. This prediction is based on recent data from ACLED showing significant state involvement, with the number of deaths in April rising by 138% due to US-led strikes. Predicted deaths for subsequent months likely fall within 250-500, based on historical trends and current military intensity. However, this forecast includes uncertainties such as potential under-reporting, diplomatic breakthroughs, changes in reporting methodologies, or unexpected geopolitical events that could alter the death toll in either direction.
Runtime: 133 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Syria in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment with VIEWS.
