How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy‘s latest version of his Multi-AI Oracle says:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, I need to summarize the current web results related to the Canada Conservative Party election. Let me start by going through each of the provided search results to identify relevant information.
First, result [1] from Angus Reid Institute talks about the latest voter intentions. The Liberals are leading by 8 points (46% vs 38% for Conservatives). There’s a significant gender gap: Conservatives lead by 2 points among men, while Liberals have a 19-point lead among women. Carney’s favourability is stable, but Poilievre struggles with women, and Singh with men. Regional shifts are mentioned, especially in BC, Ontario, and Quebec.
Result [3] from Politico discusses the Conservative campaign’s struggles, linking them to Trump’s influence. Poilievre’s “Canada First” message is seen as too aligned with Trump, causing backlash. There are issues with volunteer mobilization and candidate support. Internal concerns about declining polls are noted, with some candidates questioning the accuracy of the polls.
Result [5] from YouTube mentions the Conservatives dropping two candidates, Mark McKenzie and Stéfan Marquis, due to past controversial comments. This shows the party’s risk management in candidate selection, especially in less winnable seats.
Result [6] from another YouTube video analyzes Poilievre’s campaign strategy, attributing his divisive tone to Alberta’s oil industry frustrations. It notes the shift in polls with Carney leading now, and the challenge of mobilizing young Conservative voters.
Result [8] from Wikipedia provides the electoral map and party standings. The Conservatives have 120 seats currently. Their platform includes tax cuts, GST elimination on higher-priced homes, and ending CBC funding. The election date is April 28, 2025.
Result [10] from Wikipedia lists candidates, including dropped ones, and mentions the Longest Ballot Committee targeting Poilievre’s riding.
I need to organize this information into sections: Polling and Demographics, Campaign Challenges, Policy Platforms, Candidate Issues, and Regional Dynamics. Tables would be useful for polling data and policy comparisons. Citations should be included after each relevant point. Also, ensure to mention the current date as April 8, 2025, and the election date from [8]. Avoid any personalization or hedging language, stick to the facts from the sources.
The 2025 Canadian federal election campaign has entered its final weeks, with the Conservative Party facing significant challenges in closing the gap against the Liberals. Here’s a synthesis of key developments:
—
### **Polling and Demographics**
– **Current voter intention**: Liberals lead Conservatives 46% to 38%, with NDP and Bloc Québécois at 7% each[1][8].
– **Gender divide**:
– **Men**: Conservatives hold a narrow 2-point lead (44% CPC vs. 42% Liberal).
– **Women**: Liberals dominate by 19 points (51% vs. 32%)[1][3].
– **Age breakdown**: Liberals lead across all age groups except men aged 35–54, who favor Conservatives[1].
– **Regional shifts**: Liberals lead in Metro Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, while Conservatives perform strongly in the Prairies[1][8].
—
### **Conservative Campaign Challenges**
1. **Trump’s Impact**: President Trump’s tariffs and annexation rhetoric have revitalized Liberal support, with Poilievre’s “Canada First” slogan perceived as aligning too closely with Trump’s “America First”[3][6].
2. **Volunteer Mobilization**: Reports highlight difficulties recruiting volunteers, with candidates relying on personal networks for support[3][5].
3. **Leadership Perception**:
– Poilievre’s net favourability lags behind Carney’s (+22 for Carney vs. negative ratings for Poilievre among 61% of women)[1][6].
– Critics describe his tone as “angry” and “divisive,” linked to Alberta’s oil industry frustrations[6].
—
### **Policy Platforms**
### **Conservative Party Candidate Issues**
– **Dropped Candidates**: The Conservatives removed two candidates in 24 hours:
– **Mark McKenzie** (Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore) for past comments about capital punishment[5].
– **Stéfan Marquis** (Laurier—Sainte-Marie) for endorsing Trump-era policies and conspiracy theories[5].
– **Grassroots Concerns**: Supporters report delays in receiving campaign materials, highlighting organizational struggles[3][6].
### **Regional Dynamics**
– **Quebec**: Liberal support remains strong despite losing ground to the Bloc, driven by U.S. relations as a top issue[1][8].
– **Alberta**: Poilievre’s messaging resonates with oil industry frustrations, but strategic voters worry about overemphasis on divisive rhetoric[6].
With the election set for **April 28, 2025**[8], the Conservatives face an uphill battle to reverse sliding poll numbers and mobilize their base.
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability_of_CPC_gaining_more_than_172_seats: 30%.
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 20 (Carolyn’s note: Jeremy says that Canada’s elections always are resolved within a day. So, yay, the Multi-AI Oracle got this number right.)
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.3 was determined by examining current polling trends where the Conservatives trail by about 8% nationally behind the Liberals, as well as considering the past performance and external factors such as campaign challenges. The necessary conditions for capturing more than 172 seats in the face of current demographic trends are considerable hurdles.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data such as real-time regional polling, especially in swing districts, and updated economic outlooks could provide a more nuanced view. Insights into internal Conservative campaign operations and strategies further serve as useful metrics.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Factors that could diverge the outcome include last-minute shifts in voter sentiment due to political events, improved campaigning strategies by the Conservatives, or a significant mistake by the Liberal party. The powerful influence of demographic factors and the regional stickiness of voting preferences are challenging to overcome.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively for the COnservative Party:
– The Conservative Party must retain its current seats.
– The Conservative Party must gain a significant number of additional seats (at least 52) to secure more than 172 seats in total.
– Multiple regions must see a shift in voter support towards the Conservatives, particularly in key battlegrounds like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia.
– The current polling deficiencies indicated by certain demographics or specific regional shifts need to be addressed or reversed.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.65, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.08, “more than 240”: 0.02] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.55, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.1, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.55, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.1, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 55%
* between 172 and 205: 30%
* between 206 and 240: 10%
* more than 240: 5%
The reasoning across various AI summaries indicates that the Conservative Party is significantly trailing the Liberals in upcoming elections, facing an 8-point national deficit. Key challenges include a 19-point gender gap with female voters, organizational difficulties, and controversies linked to Trump-related policies. The Conservatives hold 120 seats and need to gain 52 more to reach a competitive threshold, which seems unlikely given the current polling trends, particularly in crucial regions like Ontario and Quebec. Despite these challenges, some predictions could be wrong if factors such as underestimations in polling, late emerging scandals, or effective ground game strategies come into play. Shifts in voter sentiment due to unforeseen events, changes in campaign strategies, or errors by the Liberal Party could also influence the election outcome.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
