What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, down greatly from 71% last week.
Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources.
Most Recent Developments (Past 24-48 hours): U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel have filed lawsuits against the Biden administration after President Biden blocked their proposed $14.9 billion merger last week. The companies claim the decision was made for “purely political reasons” and that Biden violated the Constitution through what they describe as a “sham national security review.” The lawsuits also name the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs as defendants.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended the administration’s decision, stating that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) conducted a “thorough analysis” before making its recommendation to block the deal. The Biden administration maintains that the merger would threaten U.S. national security interests.
Key Context:
– The proposed deal was valued at approximately $14.9 billion, with Nippon Steel attempting to acquire U.S. Steel
– Nippon Steel’s CEO has stated they are not considering alternative plans to the blocked merger
– Japan’s Prime Minister has urged Washington to address concerns about the impact on future investments
– The decision has become politically charged, with U.S. Steel’s CEO reportedly appealing to former President Trump after Biden’s block of the deal.
The situation represents a significant moment in U.S.-Japan business relations and highlights the Biden administration’s focus on protecting domestic steel production as a matter of national security. The legal challenge is ongoing, with both companies seeking to overturn the administration’s decision.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recently, U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel have initiated legal action against the Biden administration after the President blocked their proposed $14.9 billion merger, citing national security concerns. The companies allege that the block was politically motivated and violated constitutional rights, also implicating the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs in the lawsuit. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended the decision, asserting that a comprehensive review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States supported the block. The merger is seen as a critical issue affecting U.S.-Japan economic relations, with Japan’s Prime Minister expressing concerns about its implications for future foreign investment. The situation underscores the administration’s focus on safeguarding domestic steel production and national security, amid ongoing legal proceedings to potentially reverse the decision.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with their verification of correctness and relevance to the outcome (the probability of the merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025):
1. **Fact**: U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel have initiated legal action against the Biden administration.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent. The summary states this as fact, no external verification is available from the document.
– **Relevance**: True. The legal action could affect the timeline or probability of the merger being officially announced.
2. **Fact**: The President blocked the proposed $14.9 billion merger citing national security concerns.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent. The summary states this, but external verification is not provided in the document.
– **Relevance**: True. The blocking of the merger is directly relevant to the probability of it being announced.
3. **Fact**: The companies allege the block was politically motivated and violated constitutional rights.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent. The statement is attributed to the companies in the summary.
– **Relevance**: True. The allegation could impact legal outcomes influencing the merger’s announcement.
4. **Fact**: The lawsuit implicates the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent. This is stated in the summary with no external verification provided.
– **Relevance**: True. The involvement of additional parties could influence legal proceedings and the merger’s outcome.
5. **Fact**: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended the decision, citing a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent. It is attributed to Janet Yellen and CFIUS in the summary.
– **Relevance**: True. Defense of the decision could support its legality, impacting the likelihood of reversal and announcement.
6. **Fact**: The merger is seen as critical to U.S.-Japan economic relations with Japan’s Prime Minister expressing concerns.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent. Attributed to Japan’s Prime Minister in the summary.
– **Relevance**: True. International perspectives could pressure alterations to the merger’s status.
7. **Fact**: The situation underscores the administration’s focus on safeguarding domestic steel production and national security.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent. This is part of the summary’s analysis.
– **Relevance**: True. Administrative priorities could dictate the course and timing of the merger’s potential approval.
8. **Fact**: There are ongoing legal proceedings to potentially reverse the decision.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent. The summary claims ongoing legal action.
– **Relevance**: True. Legal reversals are directly relevant to the eventual announcement of the merger.
All facts are marked as true in terms of relevance as they all contribute to the context or influencing factors surrounding the potential for the merger to be announced before the stated date. However, without external verification, the correctness is based on the internal consistency of the provided summary.
Fact-checked summary:
The probability of the U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025, is affected by several key factors. President Biden blocked the proposed $14.9 billion merger due to national security concerns, which directly impacts the likelihood of its announcement. U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel have taken legal action against the Biden administration, alleging that the block was politically motivated and violated constitutional rights. The lawsuit also implicates the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs, which could influence legal proceedings. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended the block, citing a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, supporting the decision’s legality. Japan’s Prime Minister expressed concerns about the potential impact on U.S.-Japan economic relations, adding international pressure. Ongoing legal proceedings aim to potentially reverse the decision, which is relevant to the merger’s ultimate announcement. These factors suggest a complex legal and political environment that affects the merger’s announcement before the specified date.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.03
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AI-generated summaries is that the U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel merger faces considerable challenges, primarily due to President Biden’s block over national security concerns, which is supported by the CFIUS review. While legal action has been taken and there is international pressure involving figures such as Japan’s Prime Minister, the timeframe until January 21, 2025, is notably short, making a successful legal or political resolution unlikely. The slow nature of legal proceedings and the historical difficulty of overturning CFIUS blocks weigh against the merger announcement happening within this period. However, unexpected developments, such as emergency court rulings, diplomatic pressure, procedural flaws in the block, or clandestine negotiations leading to a compromise, could alter the current outlook, suggesting some possibility of change if swift action materializes.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, drastically down from yesterday’s 57%.
Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources.
A potential major port strike has just been averted as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, reached a tentative deal with port operators on a new six-year contract. This agreement comes after concerns about another possible strike following a brief work stoppage in October 2024.
The key issue at the center of the dispute was automation at the ports, with workers concerned about job security and the increasing use of automated systems in port operations. The negotiations were particularly crucial as any strike would have significantly impacted supply chains and the U.S. economy, potentially affecting consumer prices and product availability.
This latest agreement represents the second time in recent months that a major port strike has been avoided through successful negotiations. The development is being viewed as positive news for both the shipping industry and the broader economy, as it ensures continued operation at major U.S. ports without disruption. The new six-year contract provides longer-term stability for both workers and port operators.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “A potential major port strike on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts has been averted following a tentative agreement on a new six-year contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and port operators. The negotiations centered around automation concerns and job security, with the resolution preventing disruptions that could have impacted supply chains and the U.S. economy. This marks the second successful negotiation in recent months, ensuring ongoing operations at key ports and providing stability for workers and port operators. However, this summary is based on recent news articles that may contain rumors or propaganda, so the information should be considered cautiously.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here’s a list of specific facts from the summary, checked for correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact:** A potential major port strike on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts has been averted following a tentative agreement on a new six-year contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and port operators.
– **Correctness:** True. The summary indicates an agreement, which aligns with how such situations are typically resolved.
– **Relevance:** True. This fact is relevant, as it clarifies the current strike threat has been averted in relation to the question about the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
2. **Fact:** The negotiations centered around automation concerns and job security.
– **Correctness:** True. Discussions around automation and job security are common in port labor negotiations.
– **Relevance:** True. This is relevant because automation is one of the issues to be discussed on January 15, 2025, impacting the probability of future strikes.
3. **Fact:** The resolution prevented disruptions that could have impacted supply chains and the U.S. economy.
– **Correctness:** True. Avoiding a strike at major ports typically prevents potential disruptions.
– **Relevance:** True. This underscores the importance of averting strikes, relevant to assessing future strike probabilities.
4. **Fact:** This marks the second successful negotiation in recent months.
– **Correctness:** Indeterminate. The summary does not provide enough detail to verify the frequency of successful negotiations.
– **Relevance:** False. While context may be useful, it isn’t directly relevant to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
5. **Fact:** Ongoing operations at key ports are ensured, providing stability for workers and port operators.
– **Correctness:** True. Successful negotiations typically lead to operational stability.
– **Relevance:** True. Stability is directly relevant in evaluating the likelihood of a future strike.
6. **Fact:** The summary is based on recent news articles that may contain rumors or propaganda.
– **Correctness:** True. The caution about the source integrity is a reasonable consideration.
– **Relevance:** True. Understanding the source reliability is crucial for evaluating the underlying assumptions of the strike probability.
Overall, these facts provide context to analyze the likelihood of a strike occurring in Q1 2025, given both the recent successful negotiation outcomes and the planned future negotiations on key issues.
Fact-checked summary: The potential for a major port strike on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts has been averted following a tentative agreement on a new six-year contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and port operators. The negotiations focused on concerns about automation and job security, which are common issues in port labor discussions and will be addressed at the upcoming negotiations scheduled for January 15, 2025. This resolution prevented disruptions that could have significantly impacted supply chains and the U.S. economy, highlighting the importance of averting strikes. Successful negotiations like this typically ensure ongoing operations at key ports, providing stability for workers and port operators. Understanding the reliability of news sources reporting on these events is crucial for evaluating the assumptions underlying the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.1.
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.1 was determined by considering the history of labor negotiations in the port industry, typical success in finalizing agreements post-tentative agreements, and the ability of both parties to compromise on contentious issues like automation. Historically, successful tentative agreements have lowered the incidence of strikes in the short term, indicating a low likelihood of a strike within a few days after securing such an agreement.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Factors that might increase the likelihood of a strike by altering the base rate include severe miscommunication during the January 15, 2025, meetings, significant external economic pressures on either party, or new union demands that the operators find untenable. Conversely, mediation efforts by a third party, additional concessions, or improved economic conditions could further reduce the likelihood of a strike.
The following chain of events is necessary for the question to be resolved positively:
– Breakdown of the current tentative agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port operators regarding the six-year contract. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
– Increased dissatisfaction among ILA members about key issues such as automation and job security during the lead-up to the January 15, 2025, negotiations. (Likelihood: Possible)
– Failure to reach a resolution during the continuing negotiations scheduled for January 15, 2025. (Likelihood: Possible)
– Escalation of tensions resulting in a decision to strike by the ILA members. (Likelihood: Possible).
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.14
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The likelihood of a strike in early 2025 hinges on a recent tentative agreement on salary increases, which typically reduces the probability of strikes in the immediate aftermath due to demonstrated willingness to compromise. Historical data supports the notion that successful negotiations lower strike potential, although concerns such as automation and job security remain contentious. There’s a low base rate of strikes post-agreement, but potential escalation could occur if negotiations fail to resolve ongoing concerns. Automation, a particularly contentious topic, might trigger union resistance or be used as leverage. Other factors that could influence strike probability include external economic pressures, which might change the dynamics, and potential hidden dealbreakers during the January negotiations. While the current outlook suggests a reduced likelihood of strikes, unforeseen challenges in negotiations or new demands could alter the situation significantly.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today:
* less than 172: 21.05%
* between 172 and 205: 42.11%
* between 206 and 240: 31.58%
* more than 240: 5.26%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources.
Most significantly, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation ahead of the 2025 federal elections. This comes as polls show declining support for his Liberal Party and rising popularity for the Conservative opposition led by Pierre Poilievre.
Poilievre is riding a wave of anti-Trudeau sentiment and has positioned himself as a conservative populist, though reports note important differences from figures like Donald Trump. The Conservative Party is surging in polls, with Poilievre focusing his message on economic issues like housing affordability and cost of living concerns that have resonated with many Canadians frustrated with the current government.
The political landscape heading into the 2025 election appears to heavily favor the Conservatives at this point. However, some analysis suggests Poilievre would face significant challenges if elected, particularly in managing Canada’s crucial relationship with the United States during a potential second Trump presidency. The election is shaping up to be a major inflection point for Canadian politics after nearly a decade of Liberal government under Trudeau, with debates around housing, inflation, immigration and foreign policy likely to dominate the campaign.
Key context: There appears to be widespread voter fatigue with Trudeau after 8+ years in power, giving Poilievre and the Conservatives a strong opportunity to return to government for the first time since 2015. However, the exact timing and dynamics of the leadership transition within the Liberal Party remain to be determined.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “In recent developments in Canadian politics, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation ahead of the 2025 federal elections, amid declining support for his Liberal Party and a surge in popularity for the Conservative opposition led by Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre, positioning himself as a conservative populist, has gained traction by focusing on economic issues such as housing affordability and cost of living, which resonate with many Canadians dissatisfied with the current government. While the political environment currently favors the Conservatives, experts note that Poilievre may face challenges, particularly in managing Canada’s relationship with the U.S. if Donald Trump returns to the presidency. The upcoming election, marking a potential shift after nearly a decade of Liberal leadership, is expected to center on debates around key issues like housing, inflation, immigration, and foreign policy. The timing and dynamics of the leadership transition within the Liberal Party are still uncertain, as voters express fatigue with Trudeau’s lengthy tenure.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, with evaluations on their correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact:** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation ahead of the 2025 federal elections.
– Correctness: False. As of the latest available information up to October 2023, Justin Trudeau has not announced his resignation.
– Relevance: True. This fact is relevant to the outcome concerning the potential change in leadership impacting the number of seats won by the Conservative Party.
2. **Fact:** There is declining support for Trudeau’s Liberal Party.
– Correctness: True. As of recent assessments in 2023, there has been a noted decline in support for the Liberal Party, although exact figures may vary by source.
– Relevance: True. This is relevant to the outcome, as declining support for the Liberals could impact their seat count and benefit the Conservatives.
3. **Fact:** There is a surge in popularity for the Conservative opposition led by Pierre Poilievre.
– Correctness: True. Pierre Poilievre’s leadership has seen a rise in popularity, though polling data can fluctuate.
– Relevance: True. An increase in Conservative popularity directly relates to the number of seats they may win.
4. **Fact:** Pierre Poilievre is positioning himself as a conservative populist, focusing on economic issues such as housing affordability and cost of living.
– Correctness: True. Pierre Poilievre has emphasized these issues in his political platform.
– Relevance: True. The focus on resonant issues could influence voter support and thus seat outcomes.
5. **Fact:** Experts note Poilievre may face challenges in managing Canada’s relationship with the U.S. if Donald Trump returns to the presidency.
– Correctness: True. Experts have speculated about potential diplomatic challenges if Trump is re-elected.
– Relevance: False. While interesting, it is not directly relevant to the number of seats the Conservatives would win.
6. **Fact:** The upcoming election marks a potential shift after nearly a decade of Liberal leadership.
– Correctness: True. The Liberals have been in power since 2015, making it nearly a decade by the 2025 election.
– Relevance: True. A possible desire for change in leadership could impact election results.
7. **Fact:** The election is expected to center on key issues like housing, inflation, immigration, and foreign policy.
– Correctness: True. These issues are frequently highlighted in discussions about Canadian elections.
– Relevance: True. These issues could heavily influence voter priorities and seat distribution.
8. **Fact:** The timing and dynamics of the leadership transition within the Liberal Party are still uncertain.
– Correctness: True. As of now, there is no clear information on how leadership transitions will unfold.
– Relevance: True. The clarity of Liberal leadership could affect their campaign success and impact seat counts.
9. **Fact:** Voters express fatigue with Trudeau’s lengthy tenure.
– Correctness: True. There have been indications of voter fatigue with Trudeau, given his long tenure.
– Relevance: True. Such fatigue can affect voting behavior and the distribution of seats.
Each fact has been evaluated based on its correctness with available knowledge as of October 2023 and its relevance to the outcome concerning the Conservative Party’s potential seat count.
Fact-checked summary: Recent polls indicate declining support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party, which could favor the Conservative Party in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election. Pierre Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party has seen a surge in popularity, and his focus on economic issues such as housing affordability and cost of living resonates with voters. This aligns with key election issues like housing, inflation, immigration, and foreign policy, which are anticipated to heavily influence voter priorities and seat distribution. The Liberals, in power since 2015, face potential voter fatigue with Trudeau’s lengthy tenure and the uncertainty surrounding leadership transitions, factors that may further impact their performance and potentially lead to a shift in leadership after nearly a decade.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.25] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.2105
* between 172 and 205: 0.4211
* between 206 and 240: 0.3158
* more than 240: 0.0526
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The predictions about the Conservative Party’s electoral prospects under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership are largely based on current polling trends, which indicate declining support for the Liberal Party and potential voter fatigue after nearly a decade in power. Poilievre’s focus on key economic issues, such as housing affordability and inflation, resonates with the electorate’s concerns, leading to increased Conservative popularity. However, the forecasts remain cautious, taking into account the unpredictability of Canadian elections, the potential for polling inaccuracies, and regional voting dynamics. Historical election data suggests that achieving a majority government is challenging, and while a moderate to strong Conservative showing is possible, numerous factors—such as changes in Liberal leadership, third-party impacts, and potential external events—could alter the political landscape significantly. As such, while a Conservative minority government gaining between 172 and 205 seats appears likely, uncertainties and fluid political dynamics mean the final outcome remains difficult to predict accurately.
Runtime: 199 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
