What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 5%, down from 10% last week.
Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources. Here’s a summary of the recent developments regarding the US Steel-Nippon Steel merger situation:
Most Recent Developments (Last 24-48 hours):
The U.S. government has extended the deadline for Nippon Steel to abandon its acquisition of US Steel from April to June 18, 2024. This extension has given some observers hope that the deal may not be completely dead, despite President Biden’s initial blocking of the merger. Meanwhile, Japan’s Prime Minister has asked Biden to address concerns from the business community about the blocked deal.
Background and Legal Challenge:
Last week, US Steel and Nippon Steel jointly filed lawsuits challenging President Biden’s decision to block their proposed $14.1 billion merger. The lawsuit alleges that Biden blocked the deal for “purely political reasons” and violated the Constitution through what they claim was a “sham national security review.” The companies are also suing the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs (a competitor) as part of their legal challenge.
Context: The Biden administration blocked the merger citing national security concerns, stating that the acquisition of the second-largest domestic steel producer by a Japanese company would threaten U.S. national security. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has defended the decision, saying the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) conducted a thorough analysis of the proposed merger. Nippon Steel has stated they have no “Plan B” alternative to the blocked merger, while analysts suggest the decision could have a chilling effect on Japanese investment in the U.S., though both countries maintain their broader economic ties remain strong.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent developments in the proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel have seen the U.S. government extend the deadline for the deal’s potential abandonment to June 18, 2024, providing some hope for the merger’s survival despite President Biden’s initial blocking of the transaction citing national security concerns. The situation has prompted Japan’s Prime Minister to urge Biden to consider the business community’s concerns. Additionally, US Steel and Nippon Steel have filed a legal challenge against the decision, alleging political motivations and constitutional violations, while suing both the United Steelworkers union and competitor Cleveland-Cliffs. The Biden administration, supported by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, insists that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States conducted a comprehensive review. Analysts caution that the blocked merger may impact Japanese investment sentiments, although overall economic relations between the U.S. and Japan remain robust.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here’s a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an analysis of their correctness, importance, and relevance to the question of whether the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger will be announced before January 21, 2025:
1. **Fact:** The U.S. government extended the deadline for the deal’s potential abandonment to June 18, 2024.
– **Correctness:** True. This fact is internally consistent and plausible. However, I cannot verify it externally without more up-to-date information.
– **Importance:** Critical. This deadline is a key temporal factor that influences the timeline of the merger announcement.
– **Relevance:** True. The deadline directly impacts the likelihood of the merger announcement.
2. **Fact:** President Biden initially blocked the transaction citing national security concerns.
– **Correctness:** True. This would be a typical concern for presidential decisions on foreign mergers.
– **Importance:** Important. Presidential opposition is a significant hurdle for the merger.
– **Relevance:** True. This decision affects the merger’s legality and likelihood.
3. **Fact:** Japan’s Prime Minister urged Biden to consider the business community’s concerns.
– **Correctness:** True. Such diplomatic measures are common in international business dealings.
– **Importance:** Important. Diplomatic interventions can influence political decisions.
– **Relevance:** True. This could affect the chances of the merger being reconsidered.
4. **Fact:** US Steel and Nippon Steel have filed a legal challenge against the decision.
– **Correctness:** True. Companies often undertake legal action against governmental blocks on mergers.
– **Importance:** Important. Legal challenges can delay or impact the final decision on the merger.
– **Relevance:** True. Legal proceedings may affect the timeline and outcome of the merger.
5. **Fact:** The legal challenge alleges political motivations and constitutional violations, while suing both the United Steelworkers union and competitor Cleveland-Cliffs.
– **Correctness:** True/False. The first part about motivations can be a plausible legal tactic. Suing a union or competitor is less typical and without more specific information, it’s harder to verify.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. The outcome of these suits against the union and competitor might be peripheral to the merger’s approval.
– **Relevance:** False. These specific suits might not alter the merger’s announcement likelihood.
6. **Fact:** The Biden administration, supported by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, insists on a comprehensive review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).
– **Correctness:** True. It is customary for CFIUS to review mergers for national security implications.
– **Importance:** Important. CFIUS reviews are crucial in determining if foreign investments can proceed.
– **Relevance:** True. The review influences whether the merger can be approved.
7. **Fact:** Analysts caution that the blocked merger may impact Japanese investment sentiments, although overall economic relations between the U.S. and Japan remain robust.
– **Correctness:** True. Such economic predictions are in line with typical analyst assessments.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. While economic sentiments can have broader implications, they don’t directly change the merger’s timelines.
– **Relevance:** False. While relevant to the broader economic context, it’s not directly relevant to the merger’s announcement probability by Jan 21, 2025.
In summary, several key facts are crucial and relevant to understanding the potential for the merger to be resolved or announced, with the most critical being the extended deadline and the governmental and legal challenges ensuing.
Fact-checked summary:
There are several critical and relevant facts regarding the likelihood of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being announced before January 21, 2025. The U.S. government has extended the deadline for the potential abandonment of the merger to June 18, 2024, which is critical as it affects the timeline for any official announcement. Additionally, President Biden initially blocked the transaction due to national security concerns, a significant obstacle that impacts the merger’s viability. Japan’s Prime Minister has urged President Biden to consider the business community’s concerns, a diplomatic intervention that could influence political decisions regarding the merger. Furthermore, US Steel and Nippon Steel have filed a legal challenge against the decision, portraying legal proceedings that could delay or impact the final outcome. The Biden administration, supported by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, has called for a comprehensive review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which is crucial in determining the merger’s progress. These elements together shape the merger’s prospects and its timeline for the announced approval.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.05.
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from the history of cross-border mergers involving U.S. companies that face national security reviews. Such mergers are less frequently approved when national security is a concern, and the involvement of CFIUS further lowers probabilities if no concrete mitigating measures are proposed. Historical approval rates for similar cases indicate that mergers with significant national security flags are rare and face substantial hurdles, which informs this estimate.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
One factor that could diverge from the base rate is an unexpected shift in U.S. foreign policy or trade stance due to new geopolitical issues which necessitate stronger U.S.-Japan relations. Additionally, if the legal proceedings uncover errors in the initial decision-making or additional concessions are negotiated to satisfy security concerns, the likelihood of approval could increase. Finally, impending economic developments, such as significant shifts in steel industry economics domestically or globally, could alter the cost-benefit analysis of the merger, impacting its chances of approval.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The legal challenge filed by US Steel and Nippon Steel against President Biden’s decision must be resolved favorably for the merger. This event is of moderate likelihood due to the complexities and uncertainties of legal proceedings in merger cases.
– President Biden or his administration must overturn or amend the initial blocking of the merger, addressing national security concerns. This is of low likelihood given the emphasis on national security in such decisions.
– The diplomatic intervention led by Japan’s Prime Minister must effectively influence the U.S. administration to reconsider the merger approval positively. This is of low to moderate likelihood considering the balance between diplomatic and national security interests.
– The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) must complete a comprehensive review that determines the merger poses no substantial national security threat, allowing the merger to progress. This has a low likelihood due to the complexity and priority of national security evaluations.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.03 – confidence: 8)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.05
Base rate: 0.05 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.08
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.01
Reverse Mellers: 0.13
Theory of Mind: 0.1 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.32
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.05
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces several considerable barriers, notably President Biden’s block based on national security concerns, a necessary review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), ongoing legal challenges, and diplomatic negotiations involving Japan. The probability of the merger being announced by January 21, 2025, is low due to the tight timeframe and the complicated nature of the processes involved. Despite a deadline extension to June 18, 2024, the likelihood is further reduced by historical data showing low approval rates for similar mergers under national security scrutiny. However, factors such as undisclosed negotiations, diplomatic breakthroughs, or legal rulings could change the outcome. Additionally, shifts in U.S. foreign policy or developments in the global steel market might increase the chance of approval.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 10%, same as last week’s 10%.
Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources. Based on the recent news articles, here’s a summary of the port workers’ strike situation:
A potential major strike that could have affected U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports was averted on January 8, 2025, when the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) reached a tentative agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance on a new six-year master contract. The dispute had centered primarily around automation at ports, with approximately 45,000 dockworkers concerned about protecting their jobs from increasing automation.
The key issue was the union’s resistance to automated technology that could replace human workers at the ports. The agreement, which still needs to be ratified by union members, appears to have addressed these concerns by including limits on technology adoption at U.S. ports. This deal is significant as it prevents what could have been a crippling strike that would have affected major ports along the East and Gulf Coasts, potentially causing significant disruption to the U.S. supply chain and economy.
The agreement represents a crucial development in labor relations at U.S. ports, with both sides appearing to have found common ground on the contentious issue of automation. The ILA leadership, notably, expressed satisfaction with the outcome, with union leadership publicly acknowledging various parties’ roles in reaching the agreement, including some praise for President-elect Trump’s involvement in supporting the negotiations.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“On January 8, 2025, a potential major strike by dockworkers across U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports was averted as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) reached a tentative six-year master contract agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance. The primary contentious issue was the union’s opposition to automation, which threatened dockworkers’ jobs. The tentative deal appears to have addressed these concerns by limiting the adoption of certain technologies at ports, though it still requires ratification by union members. This agreement is seen as a critical development, averting a strike that could have severely disrupted the U.S. supply chain and economy. Union leaders expressed satisfaction with the outcome, acknowledging the role of various parties in the negotiations, including support from President-elect Trump.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Below is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with an analysis of their correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact:** A potential major strike by dockworkers across U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports was averted on January 8, 2025.
– Correctness: True (This is internally consistent with the summary and relevant external knowledge up to October 2023, assuming no new event contradicts it.)
– Importance: Critical (Key to answering the question about the probability of a strike.)
– Relevance: True (Directly impacts the assessment of strike probability in Q1 2025.)
2. **Fact:** The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) reached a tentative six-year master contract agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance.
– Correctness: True (Assuming no external contradiction, consistent with the summary.)
– Importance: Important (Provides context to the aversion of the potential strike.)
– Relevance: True (Informs about union and employer’s state of agreement.)
3. **Fact:** The primary contentious issue was the union’s opposition to automation, which threatened dockworkers’ jobs.
– Correctness: True (Common knowledge of labor disputes in this sector; consistent with the summary.)
– Importance: Important (Central to understanding the negotiation dynamics.)
– Relevance: True (Relevant to understanding future bargaining topics that may affect strike probability.)
4. **Fact:** The tentative deal addresses concerns by limiting the adoption of certain technologies at ports.
– Correctness: True/Unknown (Internally consistent, but the exact details of the deal are unknown based on the given summary.)
– Importance: Important (Addresses a major grievance of union members.)
– Relevance: True (Factors into the likelihood of future disputes or strikes.)
5. **Fact:** The tentative deal requires ratification by union members.
– Correctness: True (Standard procedure for labor agreements; consistent with the summary.)
– Importance: Important (Final agreement depends on this ratification.)
– Relevance: True (Outcome of ratification influences strike probability.)
6. **Fact:** The agreement is seen as a critical development, averting a strike that could have severely disrupted the U.S. supply chain and economy.
– Correctness: True (Logical assessment of potential strike impact.)
– Importance: Important (Shows the significance of the agreement.)
– Relevance: True (Critical in determining the impacts avoided by the agreement.)
7. **Fact:** Union leaders expressed satisfaction with the outcome.
– Correctness: True (Assumption based on summary statement unless externally contradicted.)
– Importance: Lesser Importance (Gauges union leader sentiment.)
– Relevance: True (Alters perception of likelihood of future discontent leading to strikes.)
8. **Fact:** Various parties played a role in the negotiations, including support from President-elect Trump.
– Correctness: Unknown/False (Inconsistent as President-elect in January 2025 should not be Trump, given election timelines; statement seems internally inconsistent.)
– Importance: Unimportant (Historical context, does not directly address strike probability.)
– Relevance: False (Not directly relevant to the outcome regarding the strike probability.)
Overall, this analysis identifies the facts that are central to understanding the potential for a strike in Q1 2025, while noting any discrepancies in the provided summary.
Fact-checked summary:
A potential major strike by dockworkers across U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports was averted on January 8, 2025, which is a critical factor in assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) reached a tentative six-year master contract agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance, providing important context for the aversion of the potential strike. The primary contentious issue was the union’s opposition to automation, which threatened dockworkers’ jobs, making it central to understanding the negotiation dynamics and relevant to future discussions that could affect strike probability. The tentative deal addresses union concerns by limiting the adoption of certain technologies at ports, which factors into the likelihood of future disputes or strikes. The agreement requires ratification by union members, and its final acceptance will influence the probability of a strike. This development is important as it averts a strike that could have severely disrupted the U.S. supply chain and economy. Union leaders expressed satisfaction with the outcome, indicating a positive sentiment that may reduce the risk of future dissatisfaction leading to strikes.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.05.
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.05 is derived from the historical frequency of dockworker strikes on the U.S. East and Gulf Coast, which are generally infrequent due to successful negotiations. The recent successful negotiation and tentative agreement solve a primary contentious issue, suggesting further disruptions are unlikely in the short term, especially given the union leaders’ current satisfaction. The upcoming ratification by union members is also expected to be a formality given the positive context.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Should union members unexpectedly reject the ratification, possibly due to unforeseen dissatisfaction not expressed by leadership, the probability would increase. Additionally, if any aspect of the automation provisions is deemed less satisfactory upon closer inspection by a larger segment of union members, it could lead to renewed contention. However, these possibilities currently seem remote given the current circumstances and expressions of satisfaction.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The tentative six-year master contract agreement is not ratified by union members, which is unlikely given union leaders’ satisfaction with the agreement.
– Significant unresolved issues or dissatisfaction arise after the ratification, prompting renewed strike sentiments, which is unlikely given the recent satisfaction expressed.
– The automation-related provisions of the agreement become a significant point of contention that leads to disputes, which is unlikely as these concerns have been directly addressed.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.1
Base rate: 0.05 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 7
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.04
Reverse Mellers: 0.19
Theory of Mind: 0.2 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.03
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.1
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The recent successful negotiation of a six-year master contract agreement has addressed key issues, particularly surrounding automation, which were points of major contention. Union leaders have expressed satisfaction, and the likelihood of disruption appears low, given the historical rarity of dockworker strikes on the U.S. East and Gulf Coast. With union membership ratification seen as a formality, expectations are for smooth proceedings. However, potential risks remain if members reject the agreement due to unforeseen dissatisfaction or disagreements on automation details. The upcoming January 15th discussions focus more on implementation rather than revisiting core issues, but unforeseen developments could still arise, potentially increasing strike probability if tensions escalate unexpectedly within the short timeframe.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today:
* less than 172: 20%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 30%
* more than 240: 5%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the key developments in Canadian politics:
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is showing strong momentum heading into a potential 2025 federal election. Recent polling suggests they could achieve a significant victory, with analysis indicating possible sweeps in regions like Newfoundland and Labrador that have traditionally been Liberal strongholds. Five of six Liberal MPs in N.L. have announced they won’t seek re-election.
The Liberal Party is in transition following Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will step down. Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is expected to launch his Liberal leadership campaign soon, suggesting that Trudeau’s departure gives the party “a chance” in the next election. The Liberal leadership race is being monitored by Canada’s elections intelligence task force for potential foreign interference.
Key issues emerging for the upcoming election include Conservative promises to defund the CBC and concerns about economic policies, particularly regarding potential U.S. tariffs under a possible Trump administration. The Conservative Party’s surge in popularity appears to be driven by dissatisfaction with the current Liberal government, though actual election timing remains uncertain despite increased preparation activities by various parties.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The Canadian political landscape is currently marked by significant developments as the country potentially approaches a federal election in 2025. The Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, appears to be gaining momentum, with polls suggesting a possible strong performance, even in traditionally Liberal areas like Newfoundland and Labrador, where several Liberal MPs have decided not to run again. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party is navigating a period of transition following Justin Trudeau’s announcement to step down, with former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney anticipated to enter the leadership race, amid scrutiny from the elections intelligence task force for potential foreign interference. Central issues for the upcoming election cycle include Conservative commitments such as defunding the CBC and economic concerns linked to international tariffs, especially with the possibility of a Trump administration in the U.S. Though election timing remains uncertain, the political climate is characterized by public discontent with the current Liberal administration and strategic preparations by the involved parties.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary along with the requested assessments:
1. **Fact**: The Canadian political landscape is currently marked by significant developments as the country potentially approaches a federal election in 2025.
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
2. **Fact**: The Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, appears to be gaining momentum.
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
3. **Fact**: Polls suggest a possible strong performance for the Conservative Party even in traditionally Liberal areas like Newfoundland and Labrador.
– **True/False**: True. (Assuming this is based on current polling data, but trends can change.)
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
4. **Fact**: Several Liberal MPs in Newfoundland and Labrador have decided not to run again.
– **True/False**: True. (This can be checked against current announcements from MPs.)
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
5. **Fact**: Justin Trudeau has announced he will step down.
– **True/False**: False. (Justin Trudeau has not publicly announced stepping down as of the latest updates from October 2023.)
– **Importance**: Critical.
– **Relevance**: True.
6. **Fact**: Mark Carney is anticipated to enter the Liberal Party leadership race.
– **True/False**: Speculative. (There is speculation about Mark Carney’s involvement, but no official announcement.)
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
7. **Fact**: The Liberal Party is under scrutiny from the elections intelligence task force for potential foreign interference.
– **True/False**: True. (This is consistent with ongoing discussions about foreign interference in Canadian elections.)
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
8. **Fact**: Central election issues include Conservative commitments such as defunding the CBC.
– **True/False**: True. (This reflects stated policies from the Conservative Party.)
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
9. **Fact**: Economic concerns linked to international tariffs are central election issues.
– **True/False**: True. (Economic issues such as tariffs are typically key in elections.)
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
10. **Fact**: There is a possibility of a Trump administration in the U.S. influencing economic concerns.
– **True/False**: Speculative. (The impact is uncertain, as the U.S. presidential election outcomes are undetermined for 2024.)
– **Importance**: Lesser.
– **Relevance**: True.
11. **Fact**: Election timing remains uncertain.
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
12. **Fact**: The political climate is characterized by public discontent with the current Liberal administration.
– **True/False**: True. (Based on polling and media reports, there is public discontent, though opinions can fluctuate.)
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
13. **Fact**: Strategic preparations are being made by the involved parties.
– **True/False**: True.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
In summary, each individual fact is assessed for accuracy, importance, and relevance. Note that some speculations and uncertain future events (such as specific election outcomes or unconfirmed political maneuvers) can change over time.
Fact-checked summary:
The political landscape in Canada is currently marked by significant developments as the country potentially approaches a federal election in 2025. The Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, appears to be gaining momentum, with polls suggesting a possible strong performance even in traditionally Liberal areas like Newfoundland and Labrador, where several Liberal MPs have decided not to run again. The Liberal Party is under scrutiny from the elections intelligence task force for potential foreign interference, and economic concerns such as international tariffs are central election issues. Conservative commitments such as defunding the CBC are also prominent topics. The timing of the election remains uncertain, and the political climate is characterized by public discontent with the current Liberal administration. Strategic preparations are being made by the involved parties.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.6, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.2
* between 172 and 205: 0.45
* between 206 and 240: 0.3
* more than 240: 0.05
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
Recent polling indicates that the Conservative Party, under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, is gaining significant momentum, especially in traditionally Liberal strongholds like Newfoundland and Labrador. This shift appears to be fueled by the Liberal Party’s struggles with foreign interference allegations and economic issues such as international tariffs, which are increasing public dissatisfaction with their administration. While the Conservatives show potential for a strong showing in the next election, historical trends and the current political climate suggest leaps in seat numbers would be unprecedented. Factors that could temper Conservative success include potential recovery by the Liberals, unforeseen events affecting public perception, or changes in voter sentiment prior to the election. The unpredictable nature of electoral outcomes, combined with the possibility of polls not fully reflecting the voting populace’s mood, further complicates the forecast, though the Conservatives still seem poised to make gains.
Runtime: 217 seconds for all forecasts on this page.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).