What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 25%, up from 20% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources
1. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s US Steel Bid Rejected: CFIUS Concerns Remain
**URL:** [world-today-news.com](https://world-today-news.com/nippon-steels-us-steel-bid-rejected-cfius-concerns-remain/)
**Summary:** The proposed acquisition of US Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel is under review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), with concerns raised about potential impacts on American jobs, national security, and the domestic steel market. Despite Nippon Steel’s efforts to address CFIUS’s concerns, the deal appears headed for rejection due to lingering national security anxieties.
2. **Title:** Biden Poised to Block Nippon Steel’s Bid Amid National Security Concerns
**URL:** [devdiscourse.com]https://devdiscourse.com/article/business/255193-biden-poised-to-block-nippon-steels-bid-amid-national-security-concerns
**Summary:** A $14.9 billion bid by Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel is on the verge of collapse due to national security concerns. Despite three proposals from Nippon Steel to address security risks, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has not granted approval. The decision may be pushed to President Biden, who may choose to block the deal.
3. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s $14.9 Billion Gamble: A Merger in Peril
**URL:** [devdiscourse.com](https://devdiscourse.com/article/business/255194-nippon-steels-149-billion-gamble-a-merger-in-peril) **Summary:** Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel is facing significant hurdles due to national security concerns. A letter obtained by Reuters suggests that President Biden may block the merger due to unresolved security risks. Despite three revamped proposals, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) remains divided.
4. **Title:** US Steel Acquisition Examined by CFIUS
**URL:** [zonebourse.com](https://www.zonebourse.com/US-STEEL-CO-14562/news/US-Steel-Acquisition-Examined-by-CFIUS-37350089/) **Summary:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) will examine the proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel on December 22. The committee must decide whether to approve, block, or extend the review period for the operation. The White House has stated that it will wait for the results of the examination before making a decision on blocking the operation.
5. **Title:** Trump vows to block US Steel sale to Nippon Steel
**URL:** [manager-magazin.de](https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/industrie/trump-vows-to-block-us-steel-sale-to-nippon-steel-a-123456.html) **Summary:** US President-elect Donald Trump has announced that he will block the sale of US Steel to Nippon Steel, Japan’s largest steel company. Trump stated on his online platform Truth Social that he will veto the deal, which has been approved by US Steel’s shareholders and both company boards. Trump has a history of protectionist economic policies and has threatened new tariffs against US trade partners.
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*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 19, 2024 12:55 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent reports indicate that Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel is facing significant resistance due to national security concerns raised by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Despite Nippon Steel’s multiple efforts to address security risks, the deal is likely to be rejected, with President Biden potentially stepping in to block it. The acquisition, slated for examination by CFIUS on December 22, continues to be scrutinized, and the White House is awaiting this review’s outcome before making a final decision. Additionally, there are claims of opposition from President-elect Donald Trump, who has expressed intentions to veto the deal in favor of protectionist economic policies. Given the complexity and national security implications, the merger’s future remains uncertain.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here’s a breakdown of the specific facts stated in the summary, along with their evaluations:
1. **Fact:** Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel is facing resistance due to national security concerns raised by CFIUS.
– **Check:** True (CFIUS is indeed responsible for reviewing foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies for national security concerns, and financial details like the $14.9 billion figure are plausible for such a large acquisition).
– **Relevance:** True (Understanding that CFIUS is reviewing the deal because of national security concerns is crucial to assessing the likelihood of the merger’s official announcement).
2. **Fact:** Despite Nippon Steel’s multiple efforts to address security risks, the deal is likely to be rejected.
– **Check:** True/False (True if reports indicate that the deal is likely to be rejected; however, the outcome of the CFIUS review cannot be confirmed as fact until officially announced).
– **Relevance:** True (The potential rejection by CFIUS directly affects the probability of the merger being announced).
3. **Fact:** President Biden may step in to block the deal.
– **Check:** True/False (True if there is public information or credible reports suggesting President Biden’s administration might intervene; however, this is speculative until officially confirmed).
– **Relevance:** True (If the President blocks the deal, the probability of the merger being announced before January 21, 2025, is affected).
4. **Fact:** The acquisition is slated for examination by CFIUS on December 22.
– **Check:** True (If this date is confirmed by credible sources or reports; schedule information for CFIUS reviews are usually kept private until officially disclosed, but may be reported by legal or financial analysts).
– **Relevance:** True (The examination date is important for timing considerations regarding when an official announcement might occur).
5. **Fact:** The White House is awaiting the review’s outcome before making a final decision.
– **Check:** True (This is standard procedure; the President or the administration would generally wait for the CFIUS review outcome before taking further action as described).
– **Relevance:** True (The White House’s decision process affects the likelihood and timing of announcing the merger).
6. **Fact:** There are claims of opposition from President-elect Donald Trump, who intends to veto the deal for protectionist reasons.
– **Check:** False (Donald Trump is not currently the President-elect as of this context with the review in December 2024, assuming more recent than January 20, 2021; this implies an internal inconsistency or a misunderstanding).
– **Relevance:** False (Given the inaccurate context, this does not impact the merger’s probability in the current political timeline).
Overall, the relevant facts generally are concerned with the CFIUS review, potential presidential intervention, and broader national security implications, as they directly influence whether and when a merger might be announcable.
Fact-checked summary: The probability of the U.S. Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025, is significantly influenced by several factors involving the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel is under scrutiny by CFIUS due to national security concerns, a crucial aspect when assessing the merger’s likelihood of approval. The examination is scheduled for December 22, and the White House will wait for the CFIUS review outcome before making a final decision. These elements, particularly the CFIUS review and the subsequent response from the White House, are central to determining the timing and probability of the merger’s official announcement.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate has been set at 0.3, as mergers involving foreign companies acquiring significant U.S. assets often face substantial scrutiny and potential obstacles, particularly when national security is a concern. The CFIUS review outcome is critical and can be a challenging hurdle. Additionally, political considerations may further influence the White House’s decision. Historically, deals involving sensitive industries often experience delays or rejections if national security risks are identified.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: If the CFIUS review finds no significant issues and the national security concerns are minimal, the likelihood of the merger being announced before the deadline could increase. However, any unexpected geopolitical tensions or domestic political pressures could decrease the chances. Furthermore, delays in the review process or protracted negotiations between the companies could also impact the timing adversely.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS review must complete without significant national security concerns raised. Likelihood: uncertain.
– White House must approve the merger based on CFIUS’s findings. Likelihood: uncertain.
– U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel must reach a final agreement on all terms of the merger. Likelihood: probable.
– The merger announcement must be made before January 21, 2025. Likelihood: possible.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.76
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.25
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces significant hurdles due to the critical CFIUS review scheduled for December 22, 2024, which is crucial given national security concerns and scrutiny of foreign acquisitions in sensitive industries. The White House approval is contingent on the CFIUS outcome and adds an additional layer of uncertainty to the process. The tight deadline, with a goal of announcement by January 21, 2025, further complicates the situation as historical precedent shows such reviews often take longer and face geopolitical challenges. Despite a low base rate for similar mergers, factors such as the possibility of expedited CFIUS review, existing political agreements, and the companies’ preemptive measures to address regulatory concerns could improve the merger’s chances. However, geopolitical tensions and unexpected political pressures could adversely impact the approval timeline.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 40%, down from 65% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Teamsters say Amazon workers will strike at multiple facilities as union seeks labor contract
**URL:** [kiro7.com] https://kiro7.com
**Summary:** The International Brotherhood of Teamsters announced that workers at seven Amazon facilities will go on strike on Thursday, in an effort to pressure the company for a labor agreement. The union claims this is the largest strike against Amazon in U.S. history, involving nearly 10,000 workers at 10 facilities. Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien emphasized that Amazon’s failure to negotiate has pushed workers closer to the picket line.
2. **Title:** About 10,000 Amazon workers authorize plan to strike Thursday
**URL:** [delawarepublic.org]https://delawarepublic.org
**Summary:** Approximately 10,000 Amazon workers have authorized a strike to begin Thursday, seeking better pay, safer conditions, and longer breaks. The strike includes workers in New York City, Atlanta, California, and Illinois, coinciding with a key shopping period. Teamsters President Sean O’Brien criticized Amazon’s treatment of workers, asserting that the strike is a historic fight against the company’s union-busting efforts.
3. **Title:** San Francisco Amazon workers to strike Thursday morning, possibly impacting holiday shipping
**URL:** [abc7news.com] https://abc7news.com
**Summary:** The Teamsters union is launching a strike against Amazon, starting Thursday morning, which will impact a facility in San Francisco. Thousands of Amazon workers will walk off the job, citing unfair treatment by the company. Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien stated that Amazon’s treatment of its workers is un-American, despite the company claiming operations will not be affected.
4. **Title:** Labor Unions Thrive in America, Employers Should Take Notice
**URL:** [germanic.news](https://germanic.news)
**Summary:** American labor unions have experienced a successful year, with significant strikes and negotiations leading to wage increases. The article highlights the recent strike by dockworkers and the ongoing efforts by unions to secure better conditions and pay, indicating a growing trend in organized labor’s influence.
5. **Title:** Dockworkers’ Strike Threatened in Canada
**URL:** [seanews.ru](https://seanews.ru)
**Summary:** A potential dockworkers’ strike has been threatened in Canada, similar to the situation in the U.S. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) local branch warned port operators in British Columbia of a strike set to begin if a new collective agreement is not reached. The article highlights the ongoing labor tensions affecting dockworkers across North America.
6. **Title:** Two Port of Montreal terminals shut down as dockworkers begin new strike
**URL:** [bnnbloomberg.ca](https://bnnbloomberg.ca)
**Summary:** Dockworkers at the Port of Montreal began a new strike, leading to the indefinite shutdown of two container terminals. The union is seeking changes to scheduling practices and a pay raise to improve work-life balance. The strike could have significant economic implications, as the terminals handle a substantial portion of the port’s container traffic.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 19, 2024 12:56 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The newsfeed highlights significant labor movements involving strikes by Amazon workers and dockworkers. In the U.S., the International Brotherhood of Teamsters announced a large-scale strike at Amazon facilities, involving approximately 10,000 workers across several states, demanding better pay and working conditions. This action is being framed as a response to Amazon’s alleged refusal to engage in negotiations. Meanwhile, a dockworkers’ strike in Canada at the Port of Montreal has led to the closure of two container terminals, as unions seek improved scheduling and compensation. Additionally, there are reports of potential labor disruptions in U.S. dockwork sectors, underscoring ongoing labor tensions across North America. Caution is advised in interpreting these reports, as they may contain unverified claims and varying perspectives on the events.”
Fact-checking news summary: Let’s identify specific facts from the summary and evaluate their truth and relevance to the original question, which concerns the probability of a strike in Q1 2025 in the U.S. dockwork sector.
1. **Fact 1**: The International Brotherhood of Teamsters announced a large-scale strike at Amazon facilities involving approximately 10,000 workers across several states.
– **Truth**: Indicates current labor tensions but would require external data verification. If correct, it reflects real-time labor movements.
– **Relevance**: False, as it pertains to Amazon workers, not dockworkers, which is the focus for the Q1 2025 strike probability.
2. **Fact 2**: Amazon workers are demanding better pay and working conditions.
– **Truth**: Likely true as these are common demands in labor strikes; still needs external verification for accuracy.
– **Relevance**: False, as it does not directly relate to U.S. dockworkers or the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025.
3. **Fact 3**: Amazon’s alleged refusal to engage in negotiations is framed as a reason for the strike.
– **Truth**: Needs external verification but aligns with typical strike prompts.
– **Relevance**: False, because it does not influence the U.S. dockworkers’ negotiations or the potential for a strike.
4. **Fact 4**: A dockworkers’ strike in Canada at the Port of Montreal has led to the closure of two container terminals.
– **Truth**: Needs external verification but is a specific claim that could be accurate.
– **Relevance**: True, as it indicates regional labor unrest in the dockwork sector, which may influence perceptions or actions in the U.S.
5. **Fact 5**: Unions in Canada are seeking improved scheduling and compensation.
– **Truth**: Likely true, consistent with common labor demands.
– **Relevance**: True, as it reflects regional labor issues that could create a precedent or spillover effect influencing U.S. dockworker concerns.
6. **Fact 6**: There are reports of potential labor disruptions in U.S. dockwork sectors.
– **Truth**: Needs verification but is plausibly true due to ongoing tensions.
– **Relevance**: True, as it directly correlates to the question about a potential strike by U.S. dockworkers in Q1 2025.
7. **Fact 7**: Reports may contain unverified claims and varying perspectives.
– **Truth**: True, aligns with typical cautionary advice in news reporting.
– **Relevance**: False, while this is general advice, it does not specifically affect the evaluation of strike probability.
Overall, facts 4, 5, and 6 are relevant to assessing the probability of a U.S. dockworkers’ strike in Q1 2025, with fact 6 being directly pertinent to the U.S. dockwork sector. The other facts concern related labor issues that contextualize the broader labor climate but do not directly answer the original question.
Fact-checked summary: In evaluating the probability of a U.S. dockworkers’ strike in Q1 2025, it is relevant to note that there has been a dockworkers’ strike in Canada at the Port of Montreal, which led to the closure of two container terminals, indicating regional labor unrest that may influence perceptions or actions in the U.S. Additionally, Canadian unions are pushing for improved scheduling and compensation, reflecting regional labor issues that could set a precedent or create a spillover effect on U.S. dockworkers. Furthermore, there are reports of potential labor disruptions in the U.S. dockwork sectors, suggesting ongoing tensions that directly relate to the possibility of a strike by U.S. dockworkers in Q1 2025. These factors collectively highlight an environment of labor unrest that could contribute to a heightened probability of strike actions.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by examining historical frequency of dockworkers’ strikes in the U.S., which occur periodically but not annually. The current labor unrest in Canada and potential for similar issues in the U.S. were factored in, increasing the likelihood somewhat above historical averages. Generally, in the past, labor negotiations sometimes result in strikes, but often resolutions are reached before significant disruptions occur.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
The likelihood could diverge from the base rate if proactive negotiations are initiated and prove successful in addressing dockworkers’ concerns before Q1 2025. Additionally, external economic factors or political interventions could either ease tensions or exacerbate them, affecting the likelihood of a strike occurring.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued unresolved labor disputes between dockworkers and employers in the U.S. (likely)
– Failure to reach a satisfactory agreement on wages and working conditions (likely)
– Influence from recent Canadian dockworkers’ strike leading U.S. dockworkers to consider similar actions (moderately likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.4
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.13
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.36
Reverse Mellers: 0.43
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.2
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.4
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning for predicting a potential strike among U.S. dockworkers centers around unresolved issues in automation discussions following the recent agreement on salary increases. The sector has a history of strikes when negotiations fail, especially around contentious issues like automation. Recent similar labor unrest in Canada adds to regional tensions, suggesting a higher risk of strikes should negotiations starting January 15, 2025, falter. However, several factors might prevent a strike: successful pre-Q1 2025 negotiations, external economic or political interventions, and the possibility that the Canadian strike serves as a cautionary example fostering cooperation. While labor disputes are not uncommon, they do not always result in strikes, indicating that the likelihood of a strike could be mitigated by proactive measures and negotiations.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 20%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 25%
* more than 240: 1%
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** NDP seeks distance from Liberals, sees fight in next election is with Conservatives
**URL:** [westernwheel.ca](https://westernwheel.ca)
**Summary:** NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is calling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation after the finance minister’s sudden departure. Singh’s party has been supporting the Liberals on key votes but believes the next election will be between the Conservatives and the NDP, emphasizing the need to make life more affordable. Singh is also advocating for retaliatory tariffs against the US in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s promised tariffs on Canadian goods.
2. **Title:** Trudeau reflects on complaints from liberal legislators over finance minister’s resignation
**URL:** [tribune.com.pk](https://tribune.com.pk)
**Summary:** Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing complaints from Liberal legislators following Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation, which was prompted by policy clashes and criticism of Trudeau’s leadership. Polls indicate that the Liberals would struggle against the Conservatives in the upcoming election, with a recent survey showing significant support for the Conservative Party.
3. **Title:** Conservatives win B.C. federal byelection, CBC News projects
**URL:** [arabnews24.ca](https://arabnews24.ca)
**Summary:** The Conservative Party has emerged victorious in a recent byelection in British Columbia. The article notes the outcome but lacks detailed information about the margin of victory or the candidates involved.
4. **Title:** Conservatives, conspiracies, and the coming election
**URL:** [nationalobserver.com](https://nationalobserver.com)
**Summary:** The Conservative Party of Canada is using debunked conspiracy theories to attack the government’s climate policy, particularly the carbon tax. This strategy reflects a broader trend of right-wing parties leveraging misinformation as they prepare for the upcoming election.
5. **Title:** Canada’s 2025 Elections: A Crucial Year Amidst Conservative Rise and Growing Concerns
**URL:** [ledevoir.com](https://ledevoir.com)
**Summary:** Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party, warns of challenges ahead with the rise of the Conservatives as Canada approaches the 2025 elections. Singh attributes the Conservative Party’s growing support to public concerns over the cost of living, which may push voters towards divisive political parties.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 19, 2024 12:57 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The recent news related to the Canadian Conservative election highlights various political dynamics and challenges. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is distancing his party from the Liberals, advocating for change in leadership and hinting at a significant contest with the Conservatives in the next election, as he emphasizes affordability and responds to potential US tariffs on Canadian goods. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces internal criticism and public discontent following the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, with polls suggesting a competitive edge for the Conservatives. The Conservatives recently secured a victory in a British Columbia byelection and are reportedly employing conspiracy theories to critique government climate policies, a tactic seen in other right-wing strategies. As Canada heads towards the 2025 elections, the rising Conservative support, driven by concerns over living costs, is seen as a pivotal challenge by both the NDP and observers of Canadian politics.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the summary provided, here is a list of specific facts along with their evaluation regarding truthfulness and relevance to the question:
1. **Fact**: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is distancing his party from the Liberals.
– **True/False**: True. This aligns with public statements and political analyses indicating Singh’s efforts to distinguish the NDP from the Liberals.
– **Relevance**: False. This fact does not directly affect the number of seats the Conservative Party will win.
2. **Fact**: Jagmeet Singh is advocating for change in leadership.
– **True/False**: True. Jagmeet Singh has been vocal about seeking changes in leadership tactics or policies.
– **Relevance**: False. This fact does not directly inform predictions about Conservative seat gains.
3. **Fact**: Jagmeet Singh is hinting at a significant contest with the Conservatives in the next election.
– **True/False**: True. Singh has indicated that the NDP is preparing to challenge both the Liberals and Conservatives.
– **Relevance**: False. While indicative of political competition, it doesn’t provide specific insight into Conservative seat counts.
4. **Fact**: Jagmeet Singh emphasizes affordability.
– **True/False**: True. Affordability has been a key issue promoted by the NDP under Singh’s leadership.
– **Relevance**: True. Economic issues often influence election outcomes, potentially affecting Conservative seat gains.
5. **Fact**: Jagmeet Singh responds to potential US tariffs on Canadian goods.
– **True/False**: True. As a political leader, Singh would address issues like tariffs that affect Canadian trade.
– **Relevance**: False. US tariffs are more of an economic issue rather than a direct predictor of Conservative seat gains.
6. **Fact**: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces internal criticism.
– **True/False**: True. Internal criticism within the Liberal Party is often reported in the media.
– **Relevance**: True. Internal party issues can influence electoral outcomes, potentially benefiting Conservative gains.
7. **Fact**: There is public discontent following the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
– **True/False**: False. While there might be discontent, Chrystia Freeland has not resigned as Finance Minister as of the latest known information.
– **Relevance**: True. Senior ministerial changes can impact party fortunes, but this fact is inaccurate.
8. **Fact**: Polls suggest a competitive edge for the Conservatives.
– **True/False**: True. Some polls have shown increased support for the Conservative Party.
– **Relevance**: True. Polling data directly relates to potential future seat outcomes.
9. **Fact**: The Conservatives secured a victory in a British Columbia byelection.
– **True/False**: Check depends on the specific byelection; however, Conservatives have historically won several byelections.
– **Relevance**: True. Byelection results can signal broader electoral trends.
10. **Fact**: Conservatives are reportedly employing conspiracy theories to critique climate policies.
– **True/False**: Partially true. The use of conspiracy theories is a common critique, but its application can vary.
– **Relevance**: False. This does not directly pertain to seat predictions.
11. **Fact**: Canada is heading towards the 2025 elections.
– **True/False**: True. The next scheduled federal election in Canada is in 2025 unless called earlier.
– **Relevance**: True. The timing of the election is pertinent to seat predictions.
12. **Fact**: Rising Conservative support is driven by concerns over living costs.
– **True/False**: True. Economic issues, particularly living costs, are a significant factor in political support shifts.
– **Relevance**: True. Economic concerns are a major factor influencing voter behavior and potential Conservative seat gains.
Fact-checked summary: The number of seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election cannot be definitively predicted; however, several relevant and true factors may influence their potential seat gains. Polls suggest a competitive edge for the Conservatives, indicating increased support, which is important for evaluating likely electoral outcomes. Economic concerns, especially regarding affordability and living costs, are a driving factor in rising Conservative support and are crucial in shaping voter behavior. Additionally, internal criticism faced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau within the Liberal Party could impact electoral outcomes, possibly benefiting the Conservative Party. Lastly, the scheduled 2025 federal election provides context for these predictions, as it sets the timeline for potential electoral change.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.2
* between 172 and 205: 0.45
* between 206 and 240: 0.25
* more than 240: 0.1
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction of increased Conservative support leading to significant electoral gains is influenced by current polling trends and economic concerns such as affordability and cost of living, which appear to advantage the Conservatives. Historical context suggests a jump to over 240 seats would be unusual, with a moderate gain being more probable. Internal challenges faced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau within the Liberal Party could benefit the Conservatives’ prospects, especially in light of recent conservative victories on the provincial level. However, several factors could lead to different outcomes: the election is scheduled for 2025, allowing for potential shifts in voter sentiment; economic conditions might improve, diminishing Conservative momentum; and internal Liberal Party resolutions or changes in leadership could restore voter confidence. Furthermore, the possibility of vote splitting or unexpected events could alter the predicted outcomes, highlighting the volatility and inherent unpredictability of political climates.
Runtime: 205 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
