How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Phil’s pgodzinai, a multi-GenAI bot, is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 6%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 15%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 24%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 31%
* More than 12000: 23%
Details on how pgodzinai achieved the below forecast here—>
Model’s Answer:
# Analysis of Conflict Deaths in Sudan for 2025
## Current Situation Assessment
The conflict in Sudan, now in its third year, shows significant ongoing violence with recent escalations, particularly in Darfur. Based on the most recent data from April 2025, I need to forecast the likely number of conflict deaths for the entirety of 2025.
The most reliable recent information indicates serious violence, with reports of:
– 400+ killed in a multi-day RSF attack on Zamzam camp and El-Fasher
– An additional 30+ killed in a separate Darfur attack in late April
– 60 RSF fighters killed in El-Fasher plus 5 civilians in another recent engagement
This suggests active, intense combat with significant civilian casualties continuing throughout April 2025.
## Historical Context and Baselines
The total death toll since the conflict began in April 2023 is reported variably:
– Government sources: approximately 20,000 deaths
– Independent researchers: between 130,000-150,000 direct deaths
– Additional 500,000 indirect deaths from hunger and disease
This discrepancy highlights challenges in accurate reporting and the potential for significant underreporting of casualties. Assuming the higher independent estimates are more accurate, this suggests approximately 60,000-75,000 direct conflict deaths per year over the previous two years of conflict.
## Projection Analysis for 2025
Several factors indicate the conflict may maintain or increase in intensity throughout 2025:
1. **Siege of El-Fasher continues**: Fighting has persisted there since May 2024 with recent escalations
2. **Humanitarian crisis worsening**: 25 million requiring aid, 638,000 facing famine conditions
3. **Limited international intervention**: Only 9% of required $1.8 billion aid raised
4. **Continued weapons flows**: Despite international condemnation
5. **Limited access for reporters and humanitarian workers**: Leading to underreporting
The April 2025 attack data suggests continued high-intensity conflict. If the 400+ deaths from a single multi-day attack in Darfur is representative of ongoing violence, and such major attacks occur even once per month (which is conservative given current patterns), this would result in 4,800+ deaths just from major attacks, not counting smaller daily skirmishes.
## Time Considerations
With today’s date being April 24, 2025, we have just over 8 months until the end of the year. The conflict has shown no signs of de-escalation; rather, recent events suggest intensification in certain regions. Given the seasonal dynamics in Sudan, the upcoming rainy season (June-September) may reduce mobility but historically hasn’t significantly reduced casualties in urban conflict zones.
## Uncertainty Factors
Key uncertainties include:
– Potential for unexpected peace agreements (though prospects appear dim)
– Possibility of international intervention increasing or decreasing
– Accurate reporting limitations due to media blackouts and access restrictions
– Seasonal effects on conflict intensity
## Probability Distribution Analysis
Given the evidence and analysis above:
1. **Less than 1,000 deaths**: Extremely unlikely given current intensity and recent death tolls in just single incidents
2. **Between 1,000-3,000 deaths**: Very unlikely unless an immediate and effective ceasefire is implemented
3. **Between 3,000-5,000 deaths**: Possible but would require significant de-escalation from current levels
4. **Between 5,000-8,000 deaths**: Aligns with a moderate continuation of current patterns
5. **Between 8,000-12,000 deaths**: Compatible with current intensity levels persisting
6. **More than 12,000 deaths**: Likely if conflict continues to escalate or maintains high intensity throughout the year
Taking into account the recent death rates, historical patterns, and remaining time in 2025, while also considering uncertainty and avoiding overconfidence:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 6%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 15%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 24%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 31%
* More than 12000: 23%
Details on how Phil’s pgodzinai arrived at the above forecasts –>
Past forecasts by both Phil and Jeremy on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Below, map of control in Sudan’s civil war as of April 15, 2025.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
