How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election? Here’s what Jeremy‘s new version of his Multi-AI Oracle says.
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, I need to answer the user’s query about finding current web results related to the Canada Conservative Party election and summarizing the contents. The user also wants tables of relevant data and possibly time series. Let’s start by looking through the provided search results.
First, I see several news articles from sources like National Post and Global News. Result [1] from National Post gives an overview of the election scenarios, mentioning the Liberals’ current lead, the shift from earlier Conservative dominance, and specific candidate issues. The Conservatives were projected to have lower chances of a majority.
Result [4] is a YouTube video where Poilievre discusses his platform, including reciprocal tariffs against the U.S., which is relevant to the election context given the ongoing trade war. Then results [7] and [10] detail the Conservatives dropping two candidates, McKenzie and Marquis, due to past comments. The Angus Reid poll in [8] shows the Liberals leading by 8 points, with regional breakdowns.
The user wants data tables. From [8], there’s polling data by region: Liberals leading in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, while Conservatives lead in Alberta and Saskatchewan. I can structure that into a table. The seat projections from [1] mention Liberals have a 64% chance of a majority according to Bet99, which can be another table.
Time series data might be a bit tricky. The search results mention polls from December 2024 to March 2025 showing the Liberals’ rise from 20% to 46%, while the NDP fell from 21% to 7%. That can form a time series table with periods, values, changes, and statistical measures.
I need to ensure all citations are correct, using the provided result numbers. For example, the polling data comes from [8], seat projections from [1], and candidate drops from [7][10]. Check if all required elements are covered: news sites, official party info, prediction markets. The answer includes Bet99 odds from [1], which is a market prediction site.
Finally, structure the summary with headings, tables, and ensure it’s comprehensive but concise. Avoid any markdown mistakes and verify the data aligns with the sources. The user wants a summary and data tables, so I’ll present each section clearly, using bullet points and tables as instructed. Make sure to cite each source properly after the relevant sentences.
The 2025 Canadian federal election has seen significant shifts in voter intentions and campaign dynamics, with the Conservative Party facing challenges in maintaining momentum amid a resurgent Liberal Party under new leader Mark Carney. Here’s an analysis based on current web results:
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### Current Polling Trends
The Liberals lead the Conservatives by 8 percentage points (46% vs. 38%) nationally as of March 2025, according to Angus Reid polling[8]. This marks a dramatic reversal from December 2024, when the Conservatives held a 25-point lead. Key regional shifts include:
– **Quebec**: Liberals at 49% (+15 pts since Dec 2024), Bloc Québécois at 18% (-13 pts)
– **Ontario**: Liberals 44% (+17 pts), Conservatives 37% (-4 pts)
– **British Columbia**: Tight race (Lib 50%, CPC 30%, NDP 9%)
– **Alberta/Saskatchewan**: CPC maintains stronghold with 58% support
**Polling Table (Selected Regions)**
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### Seat Projections and Betting Markets
Bet99 currently gives Liberals a 64% chance of winning versus 44% for Conservatives[1]. Threshold probabilities:
– Liberal majority: 1.57 odds (+64% implied probability)
– Conservative majority: 4.50 odds (+22% probability)
**Key Battleground Factors**
1. **Vote Splitting**: Reduced NDP support (down to 7% nationally[8]) limits Conservative gains in ridings like Niagara Falls, where combined Liberal/NDP votes exceeded Conservative totals in 2021[1]
2. **Trump Tariff Response**: Poilievre advocates “reciprocal tariffs” against U.S. while minimizing Canadian economic impact[4]
3. **Candidate Issues**: Conservatives dropped 2 candidates (Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore and Laurier—Sainte-Marie) over controversial social media posts and jokes about capital punishment[7][10]
—
### Historical Context vs. 2021 Election
Comparison to 2021 results highlights challenges for CPC:
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### Time Series Analysis (Dec 2024 – Mar 2025)
The geometric mean growth rate for Liberal support: **28.9%** monthly (3-month period)
—
### Structural Challenges for Conservatives
– **Metropolitan Weakness**: Liberals lead 50-34% in cities with populations >500k[8]
– **Quebec Sovereignty**: Bloc decline aids Liberals in key francophone ridings[1]
– **Leadership Perception**: Carney’s “crisis management” framing resonates amid U.S. trade tensions[1][4]
The Conservatives need 52 additional seats for a majority but face limited paths in Ontario (Lib +7 pts) and Quebec (Lib +27 pts vs 2021)[5][8]. With 25 days remaining until the April 28 election, Poilievre’s team is focusing on tariff reciprocity messaging and damage control from candidate controversies[4][7][10].
OpenAI gives a base rate of percentage chance of a Liberal majority according to Bet99. (Carolyn‘s note: See Bet99 results above. This site is blocked in regions where accessing it would violate laws or regulations.)
The question difficulty is rated 6 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: reference_class
Expected time (days) until question close: 25
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from Bet99 odds which currently give the Liberals a 64% chance of winning the majority. This reflects the current polling trends, historical election outcomes, and regional dynamics. Current data show a significant lead for the Liberals in most key regions, combined with a decreased threat from other parties.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
To improve forecast accuracy, additional context such as detailed regional demographic shifts, changes in voter registration, and real-time changes in public sentiment could be useful. Access to more granular polling data and insights into strategic adjustments from campaign teams would also be beneficial.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
An unexpected shift in voter sentiment, a last-minute scandal, or a significant event that dramatically shifts public perception could alter the outcome. Additionally, fluctuations in campaign strategies or unforeseen economic developments might impact current predictions.
The following chain of events are necessary for the Conservative Party to win fewer seats than the Liberal Party: (Carolyn’s note: I altered this sentence to reflect what the below reflect; it originally read “…for the question to resolve positively:” Such is life with bots.)
– Liberals maintain their lead in national polls Very Likely
– Conservatives fail to regain lost ground in key battleground regions Likely
– Bloc Québécois continues to lose support to Liberals Moderately Likely
– NDP remains weak nationally, aiding Liberal electoral strategy Likely
– No significant emerging scandals affecting Liberal leadership Likely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.55, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.08, “more than 240”: 0.02] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Option 0 name”: 0.55, “Option 1 name”: 0.3, “Option 2 name”: 0.1, “Option 3 name”: 0.05] – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 35%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 19%
* more than 240: 11%
The Conservative Party is facing a challenging election landscape, with national polls showing them trailing the Liberals by 8 points. Key issues include Liberal strength in Ontario and Quebec, diminishing NDP support consolidating the Liberal vote, and the Conservatives’ struggle in urban areas. Recent controversies among Conservative candidates and historical election trends underscore the difficulty of achieving a majority, reflected in betting odds giving them only a 22% chance. Meanwhile, the Liberals are buoyed by strong regional performances, particularly in the critical battlegrounds, and favorable odds of securing a majority at 64%, according to Bet99. Despite these challenges, the Conservatives may still find opportunity if polling underestimates their support, if an unexpected scandal impacts the Liberals, or if changes in voter turnout and sentiment occur due to shifts in campaign strategy or economic factors.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
