How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in July 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
* Less than 500: 5%
* Between 500 and 1,000: 15%
* Between 1,000 and 1,500: 25%
* Between 1,500 and 2,000: 24%
* Greater than 2,000: 31%
12–15 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Ukraine conflict deaths July 2025.
News from various sources:
The extracted content from the document primarily focuses on the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine in July 2025, featuring data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and reports involving Russia’s aerial assaults. Key points include:
1. **Increase in Russian Air Attacks**: Russia has significantly increased aerial attacks on Ukraine, particularly using missiles and drones. Between December 2024 and May 2025, missile and drone attacks doubled, with a record number of drones (5,438) fired in June 2025, marking a 16-fold increase compared to June 2024.
2. **Drone and Missile Interceptions**: Ukraine’s ability to intercept these attacks has decreased, with interception rates falling from 95% for drones in June 2024 to 79% by June 2025, and missile interceptions dropping from 74% to 50%.
3. **Russian Drone Capabilities**: Russia has enhanced its drone production capabilities, manufacturing around 5,000 drones per month, including advanced models that better evade Ukrainian defenses.
4. **Casualties and Civilian Deaths**: The increasing air raids have resulted in hundreds of deaths monthly, with many civilian casualties.
5. **Ukrainian Defense Response**: Ukraine is responding to the aerial threat with a combination of air defense systems and attacks. Notably, Ukrainian forces have used F-16 jets in their defense, but issues have arisen with limited supply of Patriot missiles due to US supply considerations.
6. **US and European Support**: The US has delayed some defense supplies, but Ukraine has agreements to produce drones with a US company and receives other forms of military support from European nations, such as the German IRIS-T and Gepard systems.
7. **Strategic Suggestions**: Ukrainian military analysts believe that targeting Russia’s military-industrial complex might be a strategic avenue to counter Russian aerial assaults effectively.
This content highlights the challenges Ukraine faces due to increased Russian aggression and the strategic interactions between Ukraine, the US, and European countries in addressing these military threats.
Fact-checking news summary:
Below is a list of specific facts extracted from the summary, each evaluated for correctness, importance to the resolution of the question, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Increase in Russian Air Attacks**: Russia has significantly increased aerial attacks on Ukraine, particularly using missiles and drones. Between December 2024 and May 2025, missile and drone attacks doubled, with a record number of drones (5,438) fired in June 2025, marking a 16-fold increase compared to June 2024.
– **Correctness**: True, assuming the data provided by ACLED is accurate.
– **Importance**: Important, as the increase in attacks could correlate with higher conflict deaths.
– **Relevance**: True, it directly impacts the number of conflict deaths reported.
2. **Drone and Missile Interceptions**: Ukraine’s ability to intercept these attacks has decreased, with interception rates falling from 95% for drones in June 2024 to 79% by June 2025, and missile interceptions dropping from 74% to 50%.
– **Correctness**: True, assuming the data provided is accurate.
– **Importance**: Important, as lower interception rates could lead to more successful attacks and potentially more deaths.
– **Relevance**: True, it affects the outcome of conflict deaths.
3. **Russian Drone Capabilities**: Russia has enhanced its drone production capabilities, manufacturing around 5,000 drones per month, including advanced models that better evade Ukrainian defenses.
– **Correctness**: True, assuming ACLED’s data on production capabilities is reliable.
– **Importance**: Important, as it indicates Russia’s sustained ability to launch aerial attacks.
– **Relevance**: True, it indirectly affects the conflict death toll.
4. **Casualties and Civilian Deaths**: The increasing air raids have resulted in hundreds of deaths monthly, with many civilian casualties.
– **Correctness**: Likely true, assuming ACLED and other reported data are precise.
– **Importance**: Critical, as it affects the total number of conflict deaths.
– **Relevance**: True, directly relevant to the number of conflict deaths.
5. **Ukrainian Defense Response**: Ukraine is responding to the aerial threat with a combination of air defense systems and attacks. Notably, Ukrainian forces have used F-16 jets in their defense, but issues have arisen with limited supply of Patriot missiles due to US supply considerations.
– **Correctness**: True, based on ongoing military support and defense strategies discussed in the summary.
– **Importance**: Important, as it impacts Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and potential casualties.
– **Relevance**: True, affects the overall conflict dynamics and potential outcome.
6. **US and European Support**: The US has delayed some defense supplies, but Ukraine has agreements to produce drones with a US company and receives other forms of military support from European nations, such as the German IRIS-T and Gepard systems.
– **Correctness**: True, if verified through other sources of military support information.
– **Importance**: Important, as foreign support impacts Ukraine’s war-fighting capacity.
– **Relevance**: True, it may indirectly affect the conflict death toll.
7. **Strategic Suggestions**: Ukrainian military analysts believe that targeting Russia’s military-industrial complex might be a strategic avenue to counter Russian aerial assaults effectively.
– **Correctness**: True, as it reflects strategic discussions and potential actions.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance, as it is a potential future action rather than a current state.
– **Relevance**: False, it’s speculative and not directly tied to the reported conflict deaths in July 2025.
In summary, most facts are correct given the assumption of accurate data, and the majority are relevant to understanding the reported conflict deaths by ACLED in July 2025, with varying degrees of importance.
Fact-checked summary:
In July 2025, factors affecting the number of state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine, as reported by ACLED, include a significant increase in Russian aerial attacks using missiles and drones, a decline in Ukraine’s interception rates for these attacks, and Russia’s enhanced drone production capabilities. From December 2024 to May 2025, missile and drone attacks doubled, with a record number of 5,438 drones fired in June 2025, indicating a substantial escalation in conflict intensity potentially leading to higher death tolls. The interception rate for drones dropped from 95% to 79% from June 2024 to June 2025, while missile interceptions fell from 74% to 50%, which could result in more successful attacks and increased casualties. Russia’s production of approximately 5,000 drones per month enhances its capacity to maintain heavy aerial offensives. Furthermore, increasing air raids have resulted in hundreds of deaths monthly, particularly impacting civilians. Ukraine’s defensive response includes utilizing F-16 jets and air defense systems, though constrained by limited supplies of Patriot missiles. Additionally, military support from the US and European nations contributes to Ukraine’s defense capabilities, indirectly affecting the conflict death toll. Each of these elements critically influences the expected number of conflict deaths in July 2025 by impacting the conflict dynamics and casualty rates.
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of deaths being Greater than 2000
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Past occurrences of high conflict death tolls during escalated attacks, 0.5
Interception rate effectiveness, 0.2
Overall conflict intensity from previous periods, 0.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical data, assume prior probability is reflective of past escalation outcomes and current events. Calculating Bayesian posterior probability: Prior(0.5) * Likelihood from new factors, e.g., reduced interception (0.7) and increased drone use (0.8). Resulting calculation: 0.5 * 0.7 * 0.8 = 0.28, normalized across other possibilities.
Bayesian base rate: 0.55
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 7
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is based on the historical frequency of state-based conflicts resulting in over 2000 deaths during intense periods of the conflict, especially given the recent increase in missile and drone attacks by Russia, and enhanced production and decreased interception rates.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
More precise casualty reports from independent organizations, details on the effectiveness of Ukraine’s defensive measures, and information on potential diplomatic interventions would help refine accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
If Ukraine successfully increases its interception rates or if international military support substantially boosts its defensive capability, this could reduce the expected number of deaths to below 2000.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued high volume of drone and missile attacks by Russia High
– Decreased interception rates persist High
– Enhanced drone production by Russia maintains its current pace Very High
– Saturation air raids lead to increased casualties High
– Sustained military support to Ukraine allowing partial mitigation Moderate
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.15, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.25, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.3, “Greater than 2000”: 0.25] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.01, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.1, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.24, “Greater than 2000”: 0.6] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.2, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.25, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.2, “Greater than 2000”: 0.3] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.10533333333333, Max: 0.23333333333333
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
* Less than 500: 5%
* Between 500 and 1,000: 15%
* Between 1,000 and 1,500: 25%
* Between 1,500 and 2,000: 24%
* Greater than 2,000: 31%
The prediction of intensified conflict and higher casualties during July 2025 is anchored on multiple factors, including a surge in Russian aerial attacks and decreasing interception rates in Ukraine. A doubling of Russian missile and drone strikes, particularly the deployment of 5,438 drones in June 2025, coupled with declining interception effectiveness—from 95% to 79% for drones and from 74% to 50% for missiles—heightens the potential for successful attacks and civilian casualties. Russia’s expanded production capacity of 5,000 drones monthly sustains its offensive operations, while Ukraine’s defensive efforts, supported by Western military aid, are hindered by limited Patriot missile supplies. However, alternative scenarios could emerge if Ukraine achieves breakthrough improvements in its defenses, receives enhanced international support, or if unforeseen developments such as diplomatic breakthroughs, logistical challenges, or errors in reporting drastically alter the conflict dynamics and death toll estimations.
Runtime: 141 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Jeremy’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. The VIEWS Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn’s note: VIEWS is using ACLED data to score its competitors, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)
Source: Views machine forecasting competition https://data.viewsforecasting.org/
